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Apple iPad to gain market share in 2012 at expense of Android

post #1 of 28
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Market research firm IDC on Thursday released an updated worldwide tablet sales forecast and expects Apple to gain more ground over Android devices in 2012 amid an overall surge for the sector.

According to the latest IDC Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker Apple's iPad will get back some of the market share it lost to Android tablets in 2011 and is forecast to take over 62 percent of worldwide sales.

The bump is part of an overall rise in tablet sales for 2012 which IDC estimates to reach 107.4 million units, up from 69.6 million in 2011 and just 19.4 million in 2010.

"Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side," said Tom Mainelli, research director of IDC's Mobile Connected Devices unit. "We expect pending new products from major players, increasingly affordable mainstream devices, and a huge marketing blitz from Microsoft around Windows 8 to drive increased consumer interest in the category through the end of the year."

Chart: Worldwide Media Tablet Shipments Split by OSHistorical and Forecast* 2010 - 2016 (Units in Millions)Description: Tags: Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts


Apple's share of the tablet market is seen as reaching 69.8 million units which accounts for 62.5 percent of global sales. The iPad dominated in 2011 with a 58.2 percent market share but that number was down from the device's launch year which saw iOS tablet sales take an unprecedented 76.2 percent piece of the pie. The growth will eat away at Android market share that is pegged to fall 2.3 percent from the 38.8 percent seen in 2011.

"After a very strong launch of new products in March, Apple's iPad shows few signs of slowing down," Mainelli said. "The addition of the Retina Display and 4G capabilities to the third-generation products clearly enticed many current owners to upgrade. And Apple's decision to keep two iPad 2s in the market at lower prices - moving the entry-level price down to $399 - seems to be paying off as well.

Mainelli adds that Apple's market presence would be further strengthened if the company releases a rumored 7-inch iPad model as the presumedly low entry price will possibly break into untapped demographics. The company is said to be readying such a device for launch sometime this fall.

If and when a smaller iPad makes a debut, it will have to contend not only with Android tablets but also devices running Microsoft's Windows 8 and Windows RT. While the IDC does not currently include the two new operating systems as part of its forecast, the firm will be adding them next quarter as devices hit store shelves. Although the market share is not expected to be high, it should be noted that the Windows-based tablets do appear in IDC's PC market tracker.

The tablet market is expected to grow to 222.1 million units by 2016, offering plenty of room for new competition. What remains to be seen is whether Android can wrest away enough market share from iOS to even the playing field or if Microsoft's new Windows devices will be the one to pick up the scraps.
post #2 of 28
But it doesn't matter because in a few years Windows will have way more marketshare than…

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post #3 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by JerrySwitched26 View Post

 

 

Impressive as this is, I think that apple is more impressed with the profits generated.  Market share is fine, but profits are finer.  Apple doesn't really care so much about market share.

 

And besides, there really is no tablet market.   There only an iPad market. No other tablet even comes close. 

I agree that there is no market except an iPad market, but disagree that Apple doesn't care about market share. They will not sacrifice profits, build quality, user experience, etc. for the pursuit of market share, but they are always quick to point out the market share when it leans in their favor. With iPods, iPads, premium computers ($1000+), they are more than willing to tell the world they dominate market share.

post #4 of 28

Isn't IDC the "research" company that always kisses Ballmer's butt? 

 

I have to say that 107.4 million units of sales in 2013 is a whopping big number of Media Tablets and eReaders. Doesn't that surpass projected PC sales?

 

I'm a long time fanboi and unapologetic Apple supporter, so it warms my cockles to recall how Ballmer cackled about the iPhone's entry into the market and how he dismissed the iPad as "not a real computer." It's been a long time since his schweaty butt has last hopped about on stage. lol.gif

post #5 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post


PC sales are roughly 360 million a year

If Apple was to get to 20% share, it would sell 75 million units, vs. 25 million today. Huge upside

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post #6 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Market research firm IDC on Thursday released an updated worldwide tablet sales forecast and expects Apple to gain more ground over Android devices in 2012 amid an overall surge for the sector.
According to the latest IDC Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker Apple's iPad will get back some of the market share it lost to Android tablets in 2011 and is forecast to take over 62 percent of worldwide sales.
The bump is part of an overall rise in tablet sales for 2012 which IDC estimates to reach 107.4 million units, up from 69.6 million in 2011 and just 19.4 million in 2010.
"Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side," said Tom Mainelli, research director of IDC's Mobile Connected Devices unit. "We expect pending new products from major players, increasingly affordable mainstream devices, and a huge marketing blitz from Microsoft around Windows 8 to drive increased consumer interest in the category through the end of the year."

 

Apple will be overjoyed with 62.5% of a much larger 107.4 million unit 2012 market than when it had a 58.2% of a smaller 69.6 million unit 2011 market. Especially since the 2011 market was flooded with below cost RIM Playbooks and H.P. WebOS tablets. Not to forget the Xoom and some other failed tablet attempts to introduce an iPad killer.

 

Most significantly I wouldn't expect Apple's margins to suffer as this cat fight heats up.

post #7 of 28
58.2% in 2011? Barely 1 out of 2 tablets were from Apple. Bullshit!
Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

I agree that there is no market except an iPad market, but disagree that Apple doesn't care about market share. They will not sacrifice profits, build quality, user experience, etc. for the pursuit of market share, but they are always quick to point out the market share when it leans in their favor. With iPods, iPads, premium computers ($1000+), they are more than willing to tell the world they dominate market share.

When people say "Apple doesn't care about marketshare" there is a silent qualifier that should always be applied: Apple doesn't care about marketshare, if it comes at the expense of profits.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #8 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

I agree that there is no market except an iPad market, but disagree that Apple doesn't care about market share. They will not sacrifice profits, build quality, user experience, etc. for the pursuit of market share, but they are always quick to point out the market share when it leans in their favor. With iPods, iPads, premium computers ($1000+), they are more than willing to tell the world they dominate market share.

Market share is a comparison of ALL companies in a particular market... a ranking if you will.

I'm sure Apple would love to be on the top of every possible list. But you're right... it would be silly to start slashing prices and sacrificing everything they stand for simply to get ranked higher on a list.
post #9 of 28

Those charts are totally bogus. iOS has 95% marketshare based on logging statistics of tablets in use.

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post #10 of 28
I still am not convinced they would release the 7 inch. I personally own Nook color and Blackberry playbook, they have been collecting dust, no one in the family uses them except myself, mainly for development in the past. On the work I used Samsung 7 inch last year, it was crappy. Overall 7 inch has been a poor tweener experience. Now Kindle fire flopped, and ipad 2 is just 399, Apple will feel less compelled to compete in the 7 inch space.
post #11 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

Those charts are totally bogus. iOS has 95% marketshare based on logging statistics of tablets in use.

In all fairness if someone wants to make a case as to why non-iPad tablets are not registering on these tracking websites I'm all ears (or eyes or gooey user interface or whatever) but so far the web and app traffic stats seem to be inline with my anecdotal accounts of what i see in the real world.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #12 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by BwhAgain View Post

I still am not convinced they would release the 7 inch. I personally own Nook color and Blackberry playbook, they have been collecting dust, no one in the family uses them except myself, mainly for development in the past. On the work I used Samsung 7 inch last year, it was crappy. Overall 7 inch has been a poor tweener experience. Now Kindle fire flopped, and ipad 2 is just 399, Apple will feel less compelled to compete in the 7 inch space.

 

I agree, its probably not the best idea either. The way samsung and motorola are going are going it won't compete with mini tabs, its will compete with massive phones.

post #13 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

MS is putting a show on next week rumored to be a windows based tablet running on arm.

So we get to see Mr. Monkey butt.
post #14 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

58.2% in 2011? Barely 1 out of 2 tablets were from Apple. Bullshit!
When people say "Apple doesn't care about marketshare" there is a silent qualifier that should always be applied: Apple doesn't care about marketshare, if it comes at the expense of profits.

 

I think both Tim and Steve said it... they aren't interested in going after market share, they just make the best products they can. If they happen to grab a huge chunk, why not brag about it? It's a double-whammy to competitors who flood the market with low margin devices no one buys or wants, yet are counted as market share.

 

Real world usage statistics always show the iPad way, way ahead, usually some 90% or higher, whether it's web usage, ad stats, enterprise deployment, etc. Like the iPod, the iPad is in a class all its own and will remain so until something else comes along and hopefully Apple again has the foresight to make the transition.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #15 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

In all fairness if someone wants to make a case as to why non-iPad tablets are not registering on these tracking websites I'm all ears (or eyes or gooey user interface or whatever) but so far the web and app traffic stats seem to be inline with my anecdotal accounts of what i see in the real world.

Ok, here is one sample, in my household there are 3 iPads, 1 nook color and 1 BB playbook. So the market share of Apple is 60%. However the Internet traffic is like 99% iPad. Last year I took commuter trains for several month(before kindle fire's release), I saw mostly iPads, but often there were a couple nook colors in my car. I only saw a Samsung 7 inch once. The market share of iPad in the trains was perhaps 60-70%. If you count e-ink readers then more like 40%.
post #16 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

58.2% in 2011? Barely 1 out of 2 tablets were from Apple. Bullshit!

 

These kinds of reports are always suspect. If you dig into things you find out that they base their numbers on a survey of some puny group like 500 owners Or it's based on the hits on some unheard of website or using the 25th ranked web ad company or such. 

 

Often the numbers are based on web related stuff which could be missing a ton of units since there could be folks that have their tablets for other things. 

post #17 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by BwhAgain View Post

I still am not convinced they would release the 7 inch. I personally own Nook color and Blackberry playbook, they have been collecting dust, no one in the family uses them except myself, mainly for development in the past. On the work I used Samsung 7 inch last year, it was crappy. Overall 7 inch has been a poor tweener experience. Now Kindle fire flopped, and ipad 2 is just 399, Apple will feel less compelled to compete in the 7 inch space.

The fact that Nook and Blackberry products are crap doesn't mean that Apple can't make a good 7" tablet.
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post #18 of 28

From everything I have read, it would appear that Android's share of sales to end users is substantially less than 35% to 40% of the so-called "tablet" market.  It may be that Android tablet shipments from manufacturers to retailers have comprised 35% to 40% of total shipments, but that is not a meaningful measure of market penetration.  I don't believe IDC's numbers.

post #19 of 28

(My previous post duplicated by mistake).

post #20 of 28

we need to ask balmer what he thinks of the ipad..

post #21 of 28

I don't know about that.  Microsoft has two different OSs for tablets. One is more like Windows, but it needs X86 processors, so they will be more like a Slate tablet, rather than an iPad tablet.  Those, historically haven't done very well.

 

The other version OS is Windows RT, which is the ARM based processor, but that one is supposed to suck.

 

The other problem Microsoft has is being able to catch up with the speed and frequency of iOS updates as Apple has been continuously coming out with iOS updates on a yearly basis.  Now, some of those updates are fairly minor, but some are fairly major.  I think there is a far greater speed of getting apps developed under iOS than Windows RT, which is their ARM based tablet.

 

I wouldn't worry too much in the tablet market.


Now, the other problem Android has is the Smartphone because Android operating system isn't getting many of these phones using the latest OS and the developers aren't really always updating their apps for the later OS since only 10% of the Android users are using Ice Cream Sandwich, which is basically a MELTED FAILURE.  Android Jelly Bean is supposed to be their next OS version, but judging on history, it may not get much traction either.  The way I see it, Android users might get fed up after they realize their bought a FAILURE and switch because they might not like Windows and how fast and up to date their OS is.   The Apple advantage is they make both the hardware and OS at the same time, which allows them much easier and faster product development to bring the two together. Easier for support, one point of contact. Plus, Apple doesn't have to give outside OEM hardware makers code and deal with various issues and the testing of the products.

post #22 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by tcasey View Post

we need to ask balmer what he thinks of the ipad..

It doesn't matter what Balmer thinks, he was wrong with the iPod and the iPhone and if he doesn't like the iPad, then that means that Apple will do well and Microsoft stands a good chance at losing.  See Microsoft has been VERY arrogant into thinking that all of these millions of Microsoft users will just automatically use Microsoft phones, media devices and tablets, but he is wrong on that.  They stand a chance at winning but Android has gobbled up a bunch of WIndows users and if an Android user is going to switch to either Apple or Microsoft, which do you HONESTLY think the majority will go?  I think the people that spend more money on the more expensive Android phones will opt for Apple since they are closer in how they work.  Now Apple is smart by always having older revs of the phone still available for sale so that those that can't afford the more expensive units have a $99 alternative, or a free alternative.  It's just a matter of how much of the nifty features you actually want/need/or will pay for in the actually unit.

post #23 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Herrinton View Post

From everything I have read, it would appear that Android's share of sales to end users is substantially less than 35% to 40% of the so-called "tablet" market.  It may be that Android tablet shipments from manufacturers to retailers have comprised 35% to 40% of total shipments, but that is not a meaningful measure of market penetration.  I don't believe IDC's numbers.

Exactly. I can count on one hand the number of times an Android OEM reported any actual end-user sales. I mean... they've got to know these numbers... right?

If sales were spectacular... they'd be shouting from the rooftops. But we barely hear a peep out of them.

So we're left with analysts, surveys and other forms of "research" to describe the Android tablet market.

But someone's gotta be buying these things... they wouldn't keep shipping them to stores unless the previous stock was sold.

So who knows...
post #24 of 28

Huh. Same company that predicted Windows Mobile to have a massive top share in 2012, right?

I'm going to ignore that analysis too, then. Even if they told me the Earth rotates around the Sun, I would doubt it, because it's them saying so :p
 

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post #25 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post

I think both Tim and Steve said it... they aren't interested in going after market share, they just make the best products they can. If they happen to grab a huge chunk, why not brag about it? It's a double-whammy to competitors who flood the market with low margin devices no one buys or wants, yet are counted as market share.

Tim cook showed graphs of market share when the 4S was introduced, and he showed the graph of all mobile phones rather than smartphones, as he thinks over time all phones will be smart or feature. Apple was at 5%. He said they had a lot more to do. This is clear interest in market share.

Quote:
Real world usage statistics always show the iPad way, way ahead, usually some 90% or higher, whether it's web usage, ad stats, enterprise deployment, etc. Like the iPod, the iPad is in a class all its own and will remain so until something else comes along and hopefully Apple again has the foresight to make the transition.

This I agree with. Android market share in tablets is supposed to be higher than iPhone market share in phones. Is this what we see around us?
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post #26 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by JerrySwitched26 View Post

 

 

Impressive as this is, I think that apple is more impressed with the profits generated.  Market share is fine, but profits are finer.  Apple doesn't really care so much about market share.

 

And besides, there really is no tablet market.   There only an iPad market. No other tablet even comes close. 

 

The numbers are silly. By "media tablets" they are including eReader's like the Kindle and Nook which really perform one function well. The Fire asides, with it's dismal sales, the iPad is 80%+ of the market if Samsung accounts for 10%. The Transformer and all those other iPad "killers" barely register on the chart.

post #27 of 28

Never believe anything from IDC or Gartner

post #28 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side," said Tom Mainelli [...]
 

 

Hey, Tom, why do you keep calling pad computers "media tablets"?  It's like calling movies "talkies."  Or like calling cars "horseless carriages."

 

Actually, it's even worse than that.  It sounds like you have an agenda.  Like you and other analysts are trying to put a firewall between iPad and the overall PC market.  The "media tablet" category is at once vague yet semantically distant from general computing, because it could include small portable TVs and dedicated e-readers.  It's almost as if you (and many other analysts) are trying to spin your audience into not realizing how much of an impact iPad is having on the legacy PC market.  And you almost did it.  You almost managed to artificially segregate iPad from the general PC market there, Tom.  By trying to spread the meme that iPads aren't real computers.

 

But you didn't do it.  And why not?  Because you're trying to shore up the legacy PC numbers with Windows tablets:

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

 

Although the market share is not expected to be high, it should be noted that the Windows-based tablets do appear in IDC's PC market tracker.

 

 

No, Tom.  You can't have it both ways.  You can't spin iPad (a portable computer) as a "media tablet" in one press release, then dump "Windows-based tablets" (also portable computers) into the "PC market" soup in another press release.  Well, actually you can.  But you'll look like a fool when you do it.  Knock yourself out.  It's a free country, brother.

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