Aggressive pricing seen as key to Microsoft Surface's chance of success - Page 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by SockRolid 

 

This all smells like a last-resort move by Microsoft.  The only reason for burning their Ultrabook hardware partners that badly is because there's no other way to fight the MacBook Air.  That's right.  The Surface is up against the MBA as well as the iPad.  The keyboard-case is a dead giveaway that Microsoft has given up on the whole Ultrabook concept.

 

The Ultrabook Initiative has had precious little success even against last year's MacBook Airs at their old price points.  And Apple has just announced upgraded MacBook Air models across the board, with $100 price drops on three of the four models.  (And you'd better believe that Apple is maintaining their hardware margins even with the lower price points.)

 

Maybe Intel should ask for a refund on their $300 million Ultrabook Initiative seed money.  Because the Dells and Asus' of the world haven't held up their end of the bargain.  Intel could use that money to kick start a Perimeter Venting Fan Initiative or something.

+1

and you add the other data point.... Too many masters... Intel on top of Microsoft, and the boards of 10 odd corporations who must balance ability to compete in a market vs make money for investors...

Which if you have 30 ultrabooks based on WinTel... you end up with a 'race to the bottom.'  with a Intel Tax and a Microsoft tax of $100+ per device, where as Apple has $80+ of that on OS savings plus another $100 in savings on components...  Apple's making at least  $200 purely on efficiencies of controlling the value change (see today's asymco.com).  and they have better patents (their OS biz model is not designed to be shared, like Android or Windows).    Not only does Apple get a head start (defining the market), but they get better gas mileage (efficiencies in the model), and they don't have to share the better parts of their car with others, and can have the cops pull over anyone they think 'copied' a part they invented.

Heaven help the TV market;-) 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Negafox 

Honestly, I find sites like Slashdot sad since they still beat the "open source is the future" and "Linux on desktop is the future" drum for over 15 years. I have been hearing about Linux on desktop since the late 90s, and well, it will never catch on. People prefer things to just work straight out of the box and not get inundated with details even if that means paying a premium price a la Apple.

Ubuntu now comes with as many drivers or more than Windows 7. It comes with a full suite of movie players and office software. It comes with music players and mail programs. Ubuntu now does work right out of the box. When HP was selling netbooks with Linux it had developed it's own start screen and help center. They would probably do that with a new version of Ubuntu and take it even farther. Since Ubuntu would be coming from a manufacturer it would run even smoother than Windows 7. It would run faster than Windows 7 too.

Sure it is a bit of work to install an OS on a computer, but when it comes directly from the manufacturer all of those technical things will have been done already. People will just need to turn on their machines and get to work or play.

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross 


Impressed with what? As you say, the demo was weak. Very weak. They spent 20 times as many minutes talking about the cover/keyboards than software. They spent 15 times as much on the construction, and ten times as much on the kickstand.
In fact, all of their talk about software took about one minute altogether. About 30 seconds on Netflix. About 20 seconds on showing how Word would work with the 22% camera angle when doing an interview, and about 10 seconds on how their media from Xbox would all work. That was it!
That's a very big problem, and something that people need to think about. How is software development going? Not very well, from that demo. And as we all know; "it's the software, stupid!"

Impressed with the idea. That is why I say the Pro is the key. It will arrive and run all the software your PC will run, hopefully. Office, Adobe, Auto desk etc. They spent 30 seconds because it is not close to being ready to run it.  

When I sit in a meeting with my iPad I am very often wishing I could run Word or Excel without having to remote to my desktop. If this device can't really run Office or Adobe than it will be because of the hardware, not the software. I have often thought being able to take handwritten notes directly into a PC would be handy. This device, while due to the weak demo, shows the potential but did not show  real world test. The RT is a failure and will be based on what you point out, no software.

Quote:

Originally Posted by roontoon 

Hey if they price them @ about a dollar I am ALL over it I need a bunch of boat anchors.

Those must be some tiny ass boats if a 1.5 lb anchor will keep them in place :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smallwheels 

If this product actually works well, or as well as Windows 7 on other devices, manufacturers will have an incentive to create more machines running Linux. If they can get together and decide to offer Ubuntu on more machines to save money, Linux could take off. I know that manufacturers must pay Canonical to do that but it is probably cheaper than using Windows.

Imagine if Ubuntu were an option on all of the machines they sell. In the build your own computer sections of both Dell and HP, there is always a section that offers the choices of which version of Windows 7 to pick. What if they decided to put Ubuntu in that section as the free choice and added $50 to choose the very basic version of Windows 7? They could put a link by Ubuntu to open a pop-up window explaining what Ubuntu could do for them. I would love to write the copy for that page. I'd do it for free.

What do you think? Would it be worth the efforts of computer manufacturers to offer Ubuntu as a free choice on their machines? This seems like the best way to recover potential losses from Microsoft selling their own hardware. Tit for tat.

No.  A large part of how companies make their money on systems is packing all that crapware on that they are paid to include, altho some will offer to let you pay more for a clean install.  What software for Linux is going to be paying for install space?  Not very much.  The Year of Linux on the Desktop is always next year.  It will never happen.  Also, I don't see how Win 8 working well on a tablet will encourage OEMs to offer Linux.  To me that would say "Look there is more to this tablet market than iPad and shitty Android tablets!" and they would produce their own.  Growing the Win 8 install base, making it more likely for people to pick up Win 8 as well. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross 


A lot of that is true. Win8 is their reaction to iOS, and particularly the iPad.
There has now been a lot of articles written about this new development, and most of them are negative in some way.
Microsoft knows very well that this is their Hail Mary pass. If they didn't get it right this time, and so get enough sales to be credible, they won't get another chance. As far as the majority of computer buyers go, they'll be forced into buying machines with Win8. Big business and government won't. But as far as tablets and phones go, there's a long way for them to go before they can prove their competitiveness.
If these sell well enough (several million a quarter), the OEMs will see a future with it. If not, it's gone, no matter how much money Microsoft is willing to lose over it.

"If these sell well enough (several million a quarter), the OEMs will see a future with it. If not, it's gone, no matter how much money Microsoft is willing to lose over it."

I suspect the latter... and that this will signal the point in time where MS and its Partners began a parting of the ways...

It is very odd, in retrospect, that what HP was trying ti do:  integrate Windows and WebOS on the desktop and offer WebOS on the tablet -- is what MS is attempting to do now...

...and the heavy-handed way MS is trying to control "everything" may result in them controlling "nothing". 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Scrip 


True.... or it's an ultrabook with a touchscreen and a removable keyboard.
I'm speaking, of course, about the Windows 8 Pro version. For those who need full Windows on a thin and light device... it's a pretty good idea. And let's face it... there are a lot of people who still use Windows.
 

removable... like in 'bluetooth'  and the innovation here is?

All I see in this is the strategic goal of: build a device and hopefully make HW profits and put our OEM partners out of business, in what appears to be a shrinking market.  I don't see a 'grow the market' strategy here (app store?).   This is a 'backstab your partners for their profits' survival mode as the world moves (back) to cloud (mainframe) computing, and live on the scraps of those dwindling few who 'think' they need MS-Access or Visual Studio.

I agree there are portable  'producers' of information technology... they need desktops.   But that will become a smaller and smaller market.   And I think the 'virtual' desktop will be the best solution, as connectivity from 'anywhere' drops to zero. (iPad+broadband to AWS)

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross 


Yeah, easy for you to say. But this is Microsoft we're talking about. The company run by a committee ruled by the Windows and Office divisions.

Then, unless they change their ways, they are doomed™... you don't create the future by reinventing the past.

What might make sense would be to split the company into 3-4 independent businesses...

...I see more potential in "Office Everywhere" than "Windows Everywhere".

Nailed it.

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http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/surface-microsoft-what-the-hell-is-wrong-with-you/20599

Jason Perlow is a technologist with over two decades of experience with integrating large heterogeneous multi-vendor computing environments in Fortune 500 companies. He is Senior Technology Editor at ZDNet.

“Maybe I’m just cranky because I had to work a 12-hour day, waiting for an event to finish on West Coast time when I really just wanted to take my wife out to dinner instead,” Jason Perlow writes for ZDNet. “But Microsoft’s new Surface tablet still has catastrophe written all over it.”

“Absolutely nothing was said about price or availability. Only that the Windows RT/ARM version will ship around Windows 8 RTM timeframe, and the Pro/Intel version will ship 3 months after that,” Perlow writes. “So let me get this straight, Microsoft. You made journalists schlep across the country, no, the planet, for a product that might not ship for months? You’re lucky they didn’t burn the venue down.”

“Okay, no ship date, no prices and… no compelling 3rd-party applications or even Office to show on it whatsoever,” Perlow writes. “So we have no idea how well it performs, and how well supported it will be by 3rd-party software developers. No partnerships to speak of. Nada.”

Perlow writes, “Right now, Microsoft’s OEMs — with the exception of whatever ‘lucky’ company got the nod to do the contract manufacturing for this product — must be absolutely livid. To produce their own ARM and x86 Windows 8 systems, they have to pay exorbitant licensing fees. Windows RT is going to cost an estimated $85 per copy to your average OEM. A Windows 8 Professional license on x86 will be considerably more. I don’t care what the hell Microsoft says about partners having cost and feature parity, that’s $85 of pure margin advantage that Microsoft has and the OEM doesn’t.”

“All of this reeks of suicidal thinking from a company that wants to deep six its long-established manufacturer ecosystem,” Perlow writes. “It does not reflect the actions of a company that tried so hard to shed long-held industry perceptions of being a monopolist, and worst case, it could potentially re-ignite federal antitrust activity that Microsoft has spent more than ten years digging itself out of.”

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AntiVirus software companies must be praying and hoping like hell right now for MS to get traction on the tablet arena. They will now have another market to sell their products

I have a theory that the savvy developers of legacy apps are looking to capitalize on the post-pc era by releasing companion or comparable apps on the iPad and any other tablets that offer potential for additional sales.

We have seen some of this on the iPad with, Adobe, Autodesk, Avid... Apple, etc.

If you are a third (or first) party developer of legacy apps -- how compelling is it to get something out there for the iPad?

A more succinct way to ask this is:  How much money and opportunity is MS, for example, missing by not having Office on the iPad?

yes, as many here and elsewhere on the web are saying today, this is MS' last hope gambit to continue its Windows hegemony as "computing" morphs into a new era.

it's doomed.

Windows 8 with Metro on a tablet is like bolting angel wings on a dinosaur and then putting it on a skateboard. OMG, what a crash that will be.

At least Windows RT is a mammal. but like marsupials, it was too slow to evolve and so trapped forever in a niche while other mammailia multiplied and dominated most ecosystems.

MS has a solid future if it faces reality: the IBM enterprise services model. that is its financial mainstay already, and it can do better. Windows 7 is a fine platform for that, and all it needed to continue strong was a service pack. but instead MS is giving it a sex change operation with Metro. which businesses will totally reject across the board - the absolutely last thing they want to do is retrain all their employees merely for eye candy.

but Ballmer and all the other MS gang from the 90's will never admit that their "Windows Everywhere" dream proved impossible, beyond their abilities. and they won't let go either.

when it is finally undeniable in 2014 that W8/Ssurface has flopped, maybe then Ballmer will be pushed aside and new blood/new thinking will come to MS. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross 


How quickly we forget! The problem is that it won't run all your Windows software. I should make up a standard post for this, and insert it every time I read someone saying that it will run all their Windows software.
Why do you think that Windows tablets, actually Convertables, were such a failure after ten years? Part of it was that they were full sized, and weighted laptops. But the main reason was because they couldn't run most Windows software. Indeed, they had problems running Windows.
You can't run Windows and its programs with a stylus, much less a finger, on a small screen. It just doesn't work. It didn't work with 13.3-15" screens, and it certainly won't work with the 10.6" screen Microsoft has come up with. That's why they spent so much time with those keyboard covers. They finally understand that.
But the screen is also too small to run standard Windows apps even with a keyboard for anything other than short sessions. Do,you really want a laptop with a 10.6" 16:9 screen? Even the 11" air is difficult to use for much more than basic work.
And then there's the hardware. What do you get? Some i5 mobile CPU. We don't know which one. Graphics? Intel IG. If it were more, they would have mentioned it.
And a big sticking point for Windows. How much RAM? It's got to be at least 2GB. You can't run Windows in less than that, including the classic desktops in Win 8. But that's a minimum for browsing, writing notes, e-mail, etc. if you need to do more serious work, you need at least 4GB. Does it have that? We don't know, but maybe not.
And if you want to use Photoshop for any professional work, or a CAD program, or Video editing, or playing new games you need 8GB. No way they have that much in there. Too expensive, and would kill the battery.
And talking about battery life—what is it? We don't know, but it can't be great, or they would have bragged about it. We know the battery is much larger than on the RT version, but smaller than what's in the new iPad. What would really be acceptable here, considering that the iPad is around ten?
No 3G for when WiFi isn't available. No LTE. No GPS.
So,this low end device is suited for low end work, no matter what Microsoft may say. Will it be worth the $900 or so it's estimated to be?

Those are very interesting points.  We have no Windows, Office or other MS apps on any of our computers or iDevices (other than what Apple licenses from MS).

So. I am out of touch with what is required to run "Windows" apps. (Last experience was several years ago, running XP SP2 on Parallels).

What would you define to be a reasonable speced Laptop or UltraBook to run most popular Windows apps? ...If you put it in terms of Macs, it will be easier for me to understand.

Windows 8 actually has the full MS Security Essentials built in out of the box. So no need to buy/install and third party application

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross 


I still wouldn't recommend it over Windows or OS X. I have it running, and it's years behind both. The programs are worse.

I don't know if everybody who uses Ubuntu and Windows 7 agree with you. It would be great if I could do a poll somewhere to find out which one most Ubuntu users think is the better system.

I'm sure many people have a dual boot like me. If Windows 7 were so much better than Ubuntu then why is the number of Ubuntu users growing? Sure there are people out there like me who hate Microsoft for selling us Vista, but there are probably many out there who were just curious about alternatives. If we polled them would the majority of them say Windows 7 was better?

To me the only thing that makes Windows useful is the Silverlight plug-in for Netflix. If Netflix worked on Linux I wouldn't use Windows at all.

I like to watch movies. When I play movies from discs on my Apple computer I don't use iTunes and I don't use Quicktime. I use VLC. I have VLC on my Linux computer.

I don't browse the web using Safari anymore. I use Firefox because I can synchronize my bookmarks on the Mac, Vista, and Ubuntu machines. There is no Safari for Linux.

I do use the Apple Mail program on the Mac. On the other OSs I use Thunderbird. I could do that on the Mac too but just haven't gotten around to switching. I should.

I like iMovie but Kdenlive on Linux has more features. It also is more difficult to use.

On the Mac I use OpenOffice. I still have that on the other OSs and will eventually switch to LibreOffice.

I've got Skype on all my computers.

So when you say the programs are worse, that doesn't apply to me. I have a Mac and most of the programs I use come from other companies. They do what I need them to do. The Apple OS keeps everything running smoother than a Windows computer would, and so does Ubuntu.

I still see this as an opportunity for Linux to expand now that Microsoft is probably angering their partners. Even if the OEMs don't make money with installing their bloatware on the Linux boxes, they'll make up for it by charging people for the basic version of Microsoft Windows. They might even take in more money since many people unfamiliar with Linux will select Windows instead.

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross 


How quickly we forget! The problem is that it won't run all your Windows software. I should make up a standard post for this, and insert it every time I read someone saying that it will run all their Windows software.
 

Kent was speaking specifically of the Pro version, which has an i5.  That will run the desktop and be compatiblle w/your old software.  The RT versions are the ones that won't be.  You can still probably play WoW and Diablo 3 on the Surface Pro.  It plays fine on my wife's 2011 MBA

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smallwheels 

I don't know if everybody who uses Ubuntu and Windows 7 agree with you. It would be great if I could do a poll somewhere to find out which one most Ubuntu users think is the better system.

I'm sure many people have a dual boot like me. If Windows 7 were so much better than Ubuntu then why is the number of Ubuntu users growing? Sure there are people out there like me who hate Microsoft for selling us Vista, but there are probably many out there who were just curious about alternatives. If we polled them would the majority of them say Windows 7 was better?

 

That poll would run into all kinds of bias.  Of course people who got fed up w/Windows and switched to Ubuntu will say those programs are better.  Whether it's true or not, it is what they have on their new platform of choice.  A lot of people don't want to admit that anything on their old platform is good. 

The number of Ubuntu users is growing b/c Windows is basically entrenched w/over 90% of the world's computers.  They don't really have anywhere to go but down from there, given that their old monopolistic tactics won't work anymore.  Ubuntu is an available option and it's free.  Of course, plenty of people try Linux and get frustrated and go back to Windows or pick up a Mac too. *shrug*  Also, yes there are many on Linux who were just curious about an alternative, but the vast majority of society doesn't care about alternatives, they just want a computer that does what they want to do and runs teh software they want to run.  if it does that, they could care less what the OS is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by j1h15233 

They can make it whatever price they want. What's important is the pricing and availability of anti virus software haha.

LOL, thanks needed a chuckle today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross 


You really need to read the entire post, and read it carefully. The i5, which model of we have no idea, is just one small part of the problem. All of the old problems remain, but are magnified.

I did.  Your post was going on about the things we don't know.  We DO know that Windows RT will NOT run your old programs.  We DO know that Windows 8 (for Intel chips and AMD) will run your old programs.  now whetehr it will run them WELL will depend on how strong the processor is, hwo much RAM, what video card, which are currently unknowns.  But you will not run into a brick wall that says you are not allowed to run that here, like you will running the ARM processor.  People ran Windows on netbooks w/smaller screens all the time.  It may not be a preference, but it is possible.  The 10.6" screen is about the size of the 11" MBA.  People do all kinds of stuff on those.  Do I want to know more detailed specs?  Absolutely.  Until we do, you really cant' say one way or the otehr how well the Intel version will run those programs, but it IS capable of running them. 

That was my point.  Relax.

So how will MS achieve any real differentiation with this . . . thing . . . among the mass of other OEM Windows 8 tablets?

Or do they plan on producing these things exclusively?  What is the actual, visible draw from the average consumer's perspective?

Does MS think that slapping their logo on it will achieve any measurable differentiation for them?  Probably not much more than Google with their Nexus line, which aint much. 

I just don't see MS or their OEMs having a fun time of it in the market side-by-side:

Microsoft-branded tablet that runs Windows. 

But this *other* tablet runs "Microsoft Windows" too. 

Not good. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff 

 

+1

 

This is still the Microsoft of the 90's and 00's.   Anybody get that 'soon to be released' version of Longhorn?   Given themselves 6 months (-/+) to get their 'holiday' version out, and 9 months for a 'corporate' version is all about them getting 'ahead' of the apple release cycle (iPhone in the fall, iPad in the spring) in words.

 

I think the key thing is that MS will have all the F1xxx corporations at least buy a fleet of a couple hundred to test out, and there semi-pro FanBoi's of the Windows ilk just as  Boiish as Apple's ... although the lines are much shorter;-).   I see it selling a million once it releases, and Microsoft hoping beyond hope to find 'switchers' to base on this.  

 

Then they find a message to support their keyword  'productive.'       iPads are for consumers.... Surface tablets are for 'producers' (a much more macho verb)...  Who want's to be a 'sheep' when you can be the Farmer?

 

I think everyone can say that iPads are very 'producer' friendly... it's just that 90% of the world's consumers are... information... 'consumers' (I let writers write books... I don't need a keyboard to read them).

 

 

 

Apple's also been building OSes, since 76... Even Microsoft didn't build it's Pc-dOS in 81... Gates/Ballmer/Allen bought it, and built it to support IBM's PC.  In short, MS's DNA is supporting a larger 'manufacturer' of HW, and when it switched over to being the 'master' of the relationship (supplying any OEM's with the OS), they really didn't care about usability/quality, or even more so, architectural elegance.    Xbox not withstanding.

 

Apple has been designing HW and SW in parallel for 37 years, with the 'hiatus' while Jobs was out effectively skunkworking the 'NeXT' Mac platform (pun intended).   Microsoft's concern about quality is laughable, when looking at their definition of user experiential quality  (classic:  to 'stop' the computer... you go to the 'start' menu).

 

There is no 'bet the business' here in the 'Surface.'   In fact, I see no such 'laser focus' as I see in quality. The fact that they built it on 2 OSes running on 2 chip architectures with 2 UIs (keyboard and stylus) basically have them hedging the their bets on this, let alone their classic Intel Iron Line.   I can't see how they can focus on HW build quality when they have so many variables in the mix.

 

To complete the analogy above.... not only are they building Fords, but they are building Lincoln's too, using a different engine and different wiring harness to the dashboard, and supporting different steering devices on each.   

Yeah, the bottom line is that Windows 8 and Windows RT are in no way, shape, or form, "built for" the Surface tablets.  They're just "tablet-shaped" PCs. Windows has to work with every PC. Microsoft doesn't integrate software and hardware into a single product vision.

Apple can decide it wants to support retina display hardware, and boom! OSX supports retina. New Thunderbolt connector? Boom! Drivers aren't even something you have to think about. It just works. Switch from ATI to nvidia video chips? Seamless. Invisible. The user doesn't even have to do anything. It just works.

I can empathize with PC users who are not only so comfortable with PCs and computers, they wouldn't f'n know what to do if you took away their C:\ prompt, their BSOD, and their registry editor. Also Google, used to find out why they're getting some weird DLL conflict while installing new drivers (my favorite stupid Windows prompt is, "A newer version of XYZ.dll is installed, do you want to overwrite this?" as if users would know). Windows is familiar, comfortable for them. Some can make the transition into the post-PC era, while others cannot. Not without their Windows "safety blankey."

And as for producer vs consumer...  Windows fans will probably continue to push that BS years from now, much like Google lovers and their antennagate. Meanwhile, in the real world, Avid now has a pretty awesome NLE for iPad....

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTR 

Microsoft themselves quoted this as being 'around about ultra book' pricing levels. That's one damn expensive tablet.

 

I noticed that, although Microsoft tried to make the keynote 'Apple-like' the thing was very poorly done. The Surface shitting itself in the first few minutes of the demonstration didn't impress many either.

 

I did like some of the ideas they've implemented, and kudos to them for not doing an outright Samsung, but it may not be enough.

 

Time will tell.

Give them a break.

Jobs presented "all of web" on first iPad while web page he was browsing was showing big ugly "missing Flash plugin" square in the middle of the screen.

Not that it hurt much... but it can happen even to the best of the best.

Quote:

Originally Posted by macxpress 

Its going to be like a box of chocolates...pretty on the outside but once you start to bite into the chocolate you realize it tastes like shit!

What kind of chocolates are you buying..?

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikon133 

Give them a break.

 

Jobs presented "all of web" on first iPad while web page he was browsing was showing big ugly "missing Flash plugin" square in the middle of the screen.

 

Not that it hurt much... but it can happen even to the best of the best.

Missing sections in a webpage devoted to advertisements could technically be construed as a bonus!

It's also a lot different than having your device totally lock-up minutes into a demonstration, forcing you to swap to an alternative unit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rogifan 

Gizmodo is drinking the M$ kool-aid. Amazing how people can go apeshit over something that they've had zero time to play around with because it doesn't exist yet. Basically they're drooling over a concept that may or may not prove to be successful, and expecting Tim Cook to respond in kind.
http://gizmodo.com/5919521/microsoft-surface-just-made-the-macbook-air-and-the-ipad-obsolete

Today they're claiming that a physical keyboard is the only way to beat Apple:

http://gizmodo.com/5919594/why-a-keyboardnot-a-processor-or-screen-or-anything-elseis-the-only-way-to-beat-apple

I've never really understood why they don't just change their url to "www.wefuckinghateapplesomuchaftertheyarrestedoneofusafterweboughttheirstoleniphone.com"

It's a lot more accurate and easier to remember, right? (>_<)

Quote:

Originally Posted by diplication 


No, think Pontiac Aztek. Tried to do everything, did nothing well. Designed by old men to sell to the youthful, but didn't have a clue.

... but the Aztek didn't have a kickstand...

So in other words, limiting product exposure.

Microsoft:  "Here is our hype, you can buy it sometime in the future."

Apple:  "Here is what you can do with it, shipping in 10 days."