Originally Posted by Gatorguy
You have perfectly valid points (except that your quoted 1% was of total mobile phone sales, not the smaller smartphone segment. They already had their 1% of total mobile phone share by 2008 too), but Android's fast rise to 50%+ share couldn't have been predicted even three years ago, and for me personally that's the bigger surprise.
Of course it could have been predicted. Just not by analysts like Gartner.
Most of the OEMs who are building and selling all these Android phones were heavy hitters for years. They have always built and sold loads of phones. They have distribution networks in place. They have deals with carriers. When Android came along, big surprise, they started putting Android on their phones, and still built and sold loads of phones. New guys also came along and put Android on their phones.
Android is merely the default or status quo OS for any OEM to put on their phone. How is any of this a surprise? It's not Android coming from nowhere and competing with Windows or something else... these OEMs building hundreds if not thousands of different phones merely dropped whatever they used before for Android, duh. They had to, because the iPhone redefined smart phones.
However, iOS did in fact come from nowhere, with one phone and limited distribution, both in number of countries and number of carriers. What can be said is that Android wouldn't have done nearly so well if it had continued to look like Blackberry and Windows and hadn't suddenly started to look and act like iOS. When the iPhone redefined the smartphone Android was able to adapt to that. Hence the death of RIM and the question mark over the future of Nokia and MS in the smartphone space.
And how is Apple, at this point, supposed to get more than 30 or so percent of the smart phone market? Think about it. It's a large and growing market and Apple, one company, can't make that many phones! Apple is making as many phones as it can... and selling them ALL. And working to make even more even faster!
So, here we go again, comparing one company with one phone to 20 OEMs with hundreds of phones in every shop all over the world. Plus these hundreds of phones Android comes installed on include feature phones of all kinds, not just smart phones; while iOS is obviously on only 'high-end' smartphones. OF COURSE "Android" has 50% share, it better. No surprise there, whatsoever.
How about this for surprises that we wouldn't have predicted : most mobile web browsing is done on iOS devices; most apps are downloaded for iOS devices; most iOS devices are on latest version of OS; most money made by developers is on iOS platform; most mobile revenue made by Google on is on iOS platform...Edited by krabbelen - 7/1/12 at 12:37am