Led by Apple's iPad, tablets projected to surpass notebooks by 2016

lol, netbooks.

Go go Giant iPod Touch!!!

No wonder Microsoft is spooked!

i would think that notebook sales would decrease as iPad sales increase. not 1 to 1 obviously, but i know several people who decided to buy an iPad rather than a notebook. i myself have postponed my MacBook Air purchase because of my increased iPad use.

I too have postponed an MBA purchase because of the iPad.

I've postponed buying an iPad due to buying a MBA...
 

I expect the iPad to destroy the low end notebook market, ie all of those $300 notebooks by HP/Dell, not to mention the netbooks.

 

Definitely. And some notebooks as well. 

 

There will be folks that need a full notebook but they are likely way outnumbered by those that don't and don't want the clutter of a big tower or all in one. So for them a tablet is perfect. I'm talking the lightweight email, web surfing etc types like my parents and grandparents. Also the younger kids don't likely need full computers in the grades before major papers (say K-5) so they will have tablets as schools move away from paper books and static tools. 

 

And of course there will be folks like myself with the desktop and tablet combo. Or my brother that has a shared desktop for the 6 folks in the family but they all also have an iPad, iPhone or iPod touch other than the baby (He's only 6 months). There are 3 iPads alone in that bunch. 

 

I don't think we'll ever get to a day when there will be no computers in houses although their uses will be different than today. They might be more house server than actually directly used for many people. Us work at home creatives might be the last hold outs on 'real' computer use in the home. But I think the iPad and the like are beginning the era of the wired home and perhaps the days of the Jetsons and such are closer than we imagine. 

I think that is why MS is spooked, as Suddenly Newton put it, and why they are jumping in with the Surface they way they ditched partners and decided to jump in with the Zune. Except with the Surface the situation is more dire because eating away at their Windows base could be catastrophic. Add in the double whammy of iPad users now wanting a Mac when do finally buy a new PC and it gets even worse for them.

By 2016, I feel like we are going to see a lot more tablets similar to the Asus Transformer series, but with more full featured operating systems. If Apple ever released an 11" MacBook air where the screen could detach and be used as an iPad, I would buy it in a heartbeat. I don't think that'll happen immediately, but in the next few years I see it as a definite possibility.

No one is making any profits in the tablet space other than Apple.  When does this change?   Does it change?

 

Google just torpedoed the entire Android table market by releasing a $199 product with zero profit margin.  How can any other manufacturer realistically bring something to market and hope to make any money?   How can Asus continue to re-invest in the category if they are nothing more than Google's bitch?    Amazon is off in left field running a balkanized version of Android with no upgrade path and very bad hardware.  Google is going to crush Amazon's dreams   

 

Google Nexus is one stone that will kill two birds:   1)  A healthy Android tablet market, and 2) Amazon. It is going to cement a $0 profit tablet world beyond iPad.   Thank you Google     

 

My 2017 iPad Prediction:    60% unit share, 100% profit share,  90% web/real-use share.   240MM units or higher gives AAPL real chance for a run to $2,000 

So basically, you are stating the obvious fact that Apple's iPad will surpass notebook sales. Wait....didn't that already happen, last year?

Hah. Like anyone can predict the tech industry 4 years out, base on current trends.

 

Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.

The Surface is a doomed product from the start. It's a rehash of what's been available for over a decade now and failed to gain traction. Microsoft's inability to ditch Windows and embrace a wholly new platform will ultimately be their downfall.

 

Android has proven to be seen by consumers as nothing more than a phone OS or little more than an embedded platform OS; Kindle, Nook, etc. Google entering this space will ultimately fail as they don't have the mind share these other companies have except among technogeeks.

 

Like portable media players, tablets aren't a necessity, but a "nicety." As such the iPad will follow the iPod's path and will remain on top. There will be other devices dumped on the market that will bring the iPad's share down, but in reality, the iPad will be the undisputed market leader when it comes to actual use; most of these usage statistics show iPad above 90% even though it only has 60% market share.

 

I do see Apple at some point releasing a smaller iPad (or larger iPod, but I'm willing to bet they try and capitalize on the iPad brand name) and market it as more of a content consumption device and market the original iPad as a "pro" version. This would lock up the entire market as they eventually did with the iPod; low: iPod touch, mid: iPad mini, high: iPad.

A lot of people here are missing the point (intentionally or otherwise) that Windows 8 doesn't just represent "Windows RT", the tablet-only version, but also the full version of Windows on a Tablet.

 

This includes the ability to dock a tablet to a connected keyboard, mouse and display setup and use it like a standard computer for a complete experience.

 

Windows 8 RT is limited to tablet applications (Metro), but Windows 8 Pro on a tablet is not--and that's the real point.

Oh, we all get it, but you fail to realize that MS and their vendors have been trying to push such a tablet for decades and it has yet to take off. The last big push was the HP Slate. Converging technologies is more about what not to include and trying to make a product that isn't ideal for any task so it can technically be used for every task is recipe for failure in the tech world. It's the Homer car all over again except this time around it's about trying to make the HW be everything to everyone but to include two UIs on the same device. And at MacBook Air prices, too boot.

 

I've postponed buying an iPad and a MBA while waiting to buy a Giant iPod Touch...

 

Except this is NOT what consumers are looking for. The failure of this "frankentablet" model has already been demonstrated. 

 

I think that most people, here, understand the difference between the Surface RT (Metro only) and the Surface Pro (Windows 8).

 

What most people also realize is that there have been tablets in this space (running full Windows) for over 10 years -- and none have been successful, except for dedicated speciality use (hospitals, etc.).

 

General Windows applications are not designed to run without a kb and a mouse -- and fail on a touch interface (stylus or no).

 

Today, those developing speciality apps, are doing them for the iPad.

Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist but I expect that one day these posters will realize that the one-device-fits-all, the bizarre combination of devices that break apart, like the Asus PadFone, and the large after market PC towers by DiYers with fancy stickers and neon lights on their chassis are not the future of computing.

Not to be pedantic but I think MS has made their entire product line even more confusing by calling them both Surface. No designation of RT and Pro between the models. Only the Windows OS sitting on top get that designation: Surface with Windows RT and Surface with Windows 8 Pro.



Correction: The ARM-based Surface just has Windows RT. There is no number 8 in it.
Edited by SolipsismX - 7/3/12 at 8:31am

AAPL is sniffing around $600 -- first time in a while!

We really should not condemn Microsoft's prior attempts at a tablet with their current attempt. Microsoft tried to make tablet computing viable as early as Windows XP, but never changed the UI to support it well.

 

Windows 8 represents a dramatic shift from their previous attempts, with an emphasis on mobile use as well as full desktop support--and they're making that available in a single device, and (what seems clear to me, anyway) a push to make the mobile phone the PC and tablet of the future.

How does Apple go from 90% of the tablet market to 50%?

 

You know, one could turn that around and say the same thing about the Apple Newton--and compare that to the iPad of today.

 

Good points!

 

MS wants to spread the fantasy of "Windows Everywhere" -- when in reality, they are pushing "Metro Everywhere" -- except all those users on XP, Windows 7....

 

So, to satisfy 2 use cases, MS has 3 separate (incompatible) OSes.

 

 

If this is a widespread phenomenon, we should expect it to have  a deleterious effect on Apple's top line, with a corresponing reduction in its bottom line.

No, you can't. Newton is nothing like the iPad and yet the x86 Surface still has a standard Windows UI that MS has been using since Win95. MS has failed big because they couldn't make any decisions. I blame Ballmer.



To put it bluntly, it's shit! MS just needs to focus instead they are trying to do everythign at once because they can't make any decisions. They should not have called anything that only has the Matro UI Windows. Ignoring the obvious point that Metro actually eschews windowing altogether it's just going to be confusing for users who are expecting their Windows apps to work. They already had this issue once before with 32-bit and 640bit versions of WIndows and now they are going to throw another confusing wrench into their operation again? Why is Steve Ballmer acting like Montgomery Brewster?

Apple showed everyone the way with splitting the OS names and design to idealize each for the platform and make it simple for the user to understand the differences. The only thing MS has finally figured out is that it needed to make it's WinNT kernel efficient enough so that it build across all devices to reduce costs and compatibility issues yet somehow they failed to understand that the same UI across all devices doesn't work.

They've also failed by demoing incomplete products with no ship dates or prices. This is one area where Google has gotten it right. Their Nexus 7 had a price, a 2-3 week shipping time with pre-orders and a finished version of Android OS.

I don't mean to pick on you -- but re-engineering the OS is only half the battle (or less).

Yes, Windows 8 has some UI APIs designed for touch... That's all well and good! But the problem is in the Windows apps -- they need to be re-imagined and rewritten to:

1) use the touch UI

2) fit in the smaller display size of the Surface

3) run in a single-window [fixed size] environment -- AFAICT, the Surface PRO does not support multiple, resizable windows.


Do you believe that most developers are going rewrite their apps, "as-is", for touch?

Just how is that multi-band header controls and ribbon interface going to work -- when it occupies the top 1/2 - 2/3 of the screen and the controls are too small for anything but a stylus... now, where did I put that stylus?

If it is so easy, why didn't MS show a single Office app running on the Surface Pro at their debut -- I can answer that: They don't run well on a tablet, "as-is", and they are a PITA to re-implement!

 

Maybe, but retards like me are helping the figures.

I have a new iPad the iPad 2 the macbook air & Im waiting for my rMBP to arrive, for the most part i don't think the iPad replaces a notebook, if i was gonna pick one id get the air, its only if it was a money issue id pick one. 

 

Your questions are valid--they're the same questions everyone has been asking. This paradigm shift was a huge focus at Microsoft's conventions this year, and as an attendee, here's what I can share:

 

• Metro applications are designed to support both touch as well as keyboard and mouse input. They are designed to be full-screen, or "split-screen" with another (supporting) Metro application, as a fragment.
• Microsoft's put very strong tools in place to help. The framework for building Metro apps is very complete, and builds on the existing Windows platform, supporting not only .NET, but also C++ as first-class citizens.

 

It is tremendously easy to create powerful Metro apps quickly, because Microsoft is providing a wealth of building blocks so that it's more akin to assembling applications rather than writing them all from scratch. These tools are designed to be easily accessible by touch but equally support mouse and keyboard input, and only show in context--they are not always visible, but only when the software wants to display them, or when the user wants to see a context of options for the current application.

 

It might be hard to imagine. I suggest trying the Metro interface with touch input, that's the only way to really get a tactile feel for how the components work.

The problem with Windows-based tablets thus far is the touch keyboard functionality is horrific. Seriously, go to a Fry's Electronics and try playing with a Windows 7 tablet. It is completely unusable. Convergent technologies is indeed the future, but Microsoft's approach thus far was not it. iOS showed the world how to do touch keyboards properly. Now I believe we will start to see personal computing shift from notebook to tablet for an even more portable experience. I am willing to wager we will eventually see MacBook tablets down the road.

There is now a new ModBook Pro but I get this even less than the previous models. Before it was at least interesting though pointless but post-iPad I just don't see anything past a couple thousand units in sales. I'm sure the RiM Playbook sold more. They might as well just call a spade a spade and rename is the MehBook.

• http://www.modbook.com/modbookpro

I agree that convergence is a good thing but the trick is converging the right things and MS is trying to have their cake and eat it too. I just don't think MS gets opportunity cost. Since the first iPad we've seen Apple do nothing but add new features that make it more Mac-ish in the since that it can be more of full-fledged personal computing device and I expect Apple to continue down that same road as the HW, SW and ecosystem allow.

We seem to be talking past one another!

First, I understand the Snap Screen in Metro -- I have the Taposé app (MS Courier) on my iPad and it is quite nice. But, it is no replacement for [unlimited] resizable, overlapping windows used by Windows, OS X... On the desktop, it is not unusual to have, say, several WP, SS, text, browser (whatever) windows open at the same time.

I always assumed that Metro had 1st class, modern, developer tools -- though not as mature as iOS or Android.

But those tools are for new (or newly-reimagined/rewritten apps).


Take an application like PhotoShop, AutoCad, MS Word... Are they going to be rewritten [in their entirety] as desktop-compatible Metro apps (or a family of metro apps)?

I don't think so!!

I can point you to several example where companies are taking the "concept" and some major features of a legacy desktop app and bringing it to the tablet paradigm -- but they are different apps with a different codebase. Their capabilities are a subset of the desktop apps, and are not compatible in both directions.

Here are some majors that have iPad apps derived from desktop apps:

-- Adobe
-- Apple
-- Autodesk
-- Avid
*
*
*
*

Let's take Apple's Pages (WP) desktop application for example -- there are many things in the desktop version that are just not present in iOS iPad version.

Now, let's assume that Apple's developers understand their apps and developer tools as well as MS'. Apple made tradeoffs in their apps for the tablet -- MS will have to make tradeoffs too (as will Adobe, AutoDesk...).

That's for Metro...


Now, The Surface Pro, running Windows 8, is an MBA (or UltraBook) WannaBe, but it really is a hybrid tablet/netbook at [expected] UltraBook prices. There is just not enough substance in the Surface Pro to support the legacy desktop apps in the manner in which they have become accustomed.

Are the major developers going to rewrite/repackage their existing apps for the Surface Pro (as well as for the Surface RT)? I don't think so -- where's the $ in doing that? Even if they do decide to make a Surface Pro version, there will be feature and compatibility tradeoffs.

So here is what I suspect will be required to run an application on "Windows Everywhere" (except WP7):

MS Word* Desktop application

MS Word* Surface Pro application

MS Word* Surface RT Metro app

* Substitute any Company and major legacy Windows application


That's three different application products. Will any developers want to write and maintain 3 different code bases just so they can run "Windows Everywhere"?

How will these products be priced?


Here's the deal... Will, say, Adobe see enough potential in the Surface to write a variant of Photoshop for the Surface Pro?

What's in it for Adobe?

I don't think there is any potential there, when you consider that a user can already run full Photoshop "as-is" on an MBA or UltraBook... and run it well!
Edited by Dick Applebaum - 7/3/12 at 12:09pm

95% used, 50% shipped.

I'd say there more mature. The dev tools are the same dev tools used for current windows apps, asp.net websites, wp7 apps. It's all one dev environment that had a big lead over Xcode. There's some features Xcode has that I'd like in visual studio, but ultimately as apple always focused on consumers and Microsoft focused on developers, it's not surprise Microsoft has the best tools.
Don't need to be re-written, they just need a new ui layer. Take adobe for example, photoshop is not written in .net for windows and Xcode for mac. It's written in c++ for both with largely the same code for both. Windows 8 supports c++ for metro, apple only support objective c for iPad. So your right the iPad does not have complete photoshop but there's also bigger reasons why it doesn't over why a windows 8 tablet wouldn't.

 

Sorry, but I sure as hell don't. Which is for which? We already know that Windows 8 is *by itself* separated by two distinct interfaces that are forced to co-exist: Metro and "standard" Windows. 

 

I don't get all this weird stratification that MS is trying to impose on computing in a desperate attempt to address every need and market they *think* (and hope) needs addressing.

FiOS has been down since last night here .... Just rejoined the living .... OMG that's great news!,,,

The tech experts here do but the average Joe sure won't either. It looks to me like a classic case of being design driven by focus groups and committees .... I recall Steve wasn't into that too much ...

Did Apple dredge up the old Newton OS and try to bring it up to date by covering the screen with LEGO-colored rectangles? Microsoft trotted out their resource pig wearing fresh makeup.