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Apple to post fiscal Q4 miss on cannibalized Mac sales, analyst says

post #1 of 73
Thread Starter 
In a note to investors on Tuesday investment firm BMO Capital forecast Apple to post a significant miss for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 as Mac sales continue to be cannibalized by the company's popular iPad tablet line.

Despite raising sales estimates for both the iPhone and iPad, BMO analyst Keith Bachman said the just-ended June quarter and upcoming final fiscal quarter of 2012 will be "challenging" for Apple as the tech giant moves into a new product cycle, reports Barron's.

Apple could see a $5.5 billion miss from the $38.5 billion consensus for the company's fourth fiscal quarter ending in September if its third quarter performance is in line with the current $37.5 billion forecast, according to historical patterns and outlooks.

Bachman reiterated an "outperform" rating for AAPL, however, and bumped the stock's target price to $700 from $695 on higher iPhone sales for the ensuing six quarters. Including the fiscal third quarter that just ended, Bachman upped iPhone unit sale estimates for the next year and half by 1.5 million units and also raised his iPad sales estimate by 3.8 million units.

Apple's strong iDevice forecast was tempered by a lowered Mac sales estimate that is expected to drop 1.6 million units over the same six quarter period. Bachman dropped his Mac sales estimate from 18.65 million units to 18.22 million for 2012 and sees that decline carrying over into 2013 which slipped to 20.18 million from 21.38 million.

"Net, we are lowering our Mac forecast by 1.6 million units over the next six Qs," Bachman writes. "We think strong iPad demand is negatively affecting Mac sales, despite the recent MacBook refresh. For the next six Qs, we reduced our Mac sales by 40% of the increase in iPad sales."

BMO Chart
Source: BMO Capital via Barron's


It was noted that investors are unlikely to overreact to the rare miss as Apple revenue is likely to rebound following the launch of a next-generation iPhone this fall.

"However, we think investors are well aware of the product cycle, and likely negative revision to near-term estimates," Bachman said. "Moreover, we think Apple shares will respond in a positive way to the pending launch of the new iPhone, as we look to year-end. If Apple is able to launch the new iPhone in the month of September, then actual unit shipments in the September Q will be less relevant, as management and investors will focus on the momentum of the new iPhone."
post #2 of 73

Erm, who cares! Mac's only make up a small fraction of the profits anyhow.

 

If Mac sales do happen to be down it will be because people were holding out, not because of cannibalization.

post #3 of 73

That title is a bit misleading... between "Apple to post miss" and"an analyst thinks that his previous analyse was f***d up and total bullshit and offers a brand new one, that is absolutely not bullshit this time".... there is a gap (no relation to fashionable blue jeans).
 

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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post #4 of 73
What does that matter? Steve already explained the PC days are numbered. The fact is Apple don't mind cannibalizing other products and never have if the over all sales figures are going up for the company. That is precisely why Apple succeed and Kodak, Microsoft et al die. They dare not mess with their precious status quo whereas Apple thrive on challenging themselves. Why on earth don't pundits get that very significant fact?
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #5 of 73

I don't believe this, the MBP Retina, as well as the recent refresh of their entire portable line should continue above industry growth in the Mac line.
 

post #6 of 73

Begin: Apple 3.0

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[Forum Signature]  I have no signature.  [Forum Signature]

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post #7 of 73

Steve Jobs said, "Never be afraid to cannibalize yourself."

 

Besides, who is this "investment firm BMO Capital"?  Never heard of them.  What do they know?

post #8 of 73

Cannibalized by iPad sales? Or people waiting for new Macs at WWDC?

post #9 of 73

I'll wait as I ALWAYS  do when Apple releases its quarterly results. Remember this?

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/24/us-apple-idUSTRE80N2BQ20120124

If you want to call me names, tell me to shut up and f off...you will be ignored. I WILL NOT BE BULLIED!!
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If you want to call me names, tell me to shut up and f off...you will be ignored. I WILL NOT BE BULLIED!!
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post #10 of 73

This is why I'm considering a switch back to Windows. I think the Mac's days are numbered.

post #11 of 73
That's okay.

Future sales of Apple's TV, Digital SLR, and Sex Droid will definitely make up the difference.

Yep. You read that right.

Siri gets a body in 2012.
post #12 of 73

I didin't buy a new Mac because Apple hasn't released an updated Mac Pro! 

post #13 of 73

Absolute fraudulent analysis. Mac sales have only grown, quarter over quarter since the release of all iOS devices.
 

post #14 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post

That's okay.
Future sales of Apple's TV, Digital SLR, and Sex Droid will definitely make up the difference.
Yep. You read that right.
Siri gets a body in 2012.

Sweet! I'd be afraid to have relations with an MS Sex Droid for fear of viruses.

519

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #15 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Sweet! I'd be afraid to have relations with an MS Sex Droid for fear of viruses.

So… do we use Trojans to protect against trojans? I'm confused.

And what happens if she blue screens midway? I shudder to think.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #16 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Sweet! I'd be afraid to have relations with an MS Sex Droid for fear of viruses.

 

Don't worry.

 

The MS Droid will be similar to their current system: scan and backup as required.

 

However, I don't know if the decision by Microsoft to include a stylus with it was...tasteful.


Edited by GTR - 7/10/12 at 2:50pm
post #17 of 73
Need a new Mac Pro.
post #18 of 73
Quote:
Besides, who is this "investment firm BMO Capital"?  Never heard of them.  What do they know?

 

Perhaps you never have heard of them, and maybe their analysis is wrong. But this is a stupid statement. You're implying that because you've never heard of them they are ignorant nobodies.

 

Here's who they are:

 

Quote:
BMO Capital Markets is a leading, full-service North American financial services provider offering equity and debt underwriting, corporate lending and project financing, merger and acquisitions advisory services, securitization, treasury management, market risk management, debt and equity research and institutional sales and trading. BMO Capital Markets has 2,200 employees operating in 30 locations around the world, including 17 in North America.
 
BMO Capital Markets is a part of BMO Financial Group (NYSE, TSX: BMO), one of the largest diversified financial services providers in North America with US$532 billion total assets and more than 46,500 employees as of April 30, 2012.
 
Established in 1817 as Bank of Montreal, BMO Financial Group is a highly diversified North American financial services organization.

 

It's not like this is three guys in a garage spouting their analysis on the internet or something.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #19 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

So… do we use Trojans to protect against trojans? I'm confused.

I'm cool with Trojans to protect against trojans. It's having to worms to protect against worms that grosses me out.


Quote:
And what happens if she blue screens midway? I shudder to think.

Is this intercourse consensual? [Yes] [No]

I just hope it has a power user option so I can say [Yes to all] 😉

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #20 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by sauria View Post

Need a new Mac Pro.

So buy one now.

Or wait for next year's update. Or the one after that. Or the one after that.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #21 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Fix View Post

I didin't buy a new Mac because Apple hasn't released an updated Mac Pro! 

 

this and no imac either. kind of hard to do good mac sales when you don't update them. laptops are selling well, but ignoring an entire market of desktop user kind of dampens mac sales.

post #22 of 73

All these years building a great OS to end up as the company that sells iOS - what happens when you put hotdogs and french fries on the menu.

 

The iOS dumbing down of Apple continues.

post #23 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


And what happens if she blue screens midway? I shudder to think.

Then it becomes married sex.
post #24 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

It was noted that investors are unlikely to overreact to the rare miss as Apple revenue is likely to rebound following the launch of a next-generation iPhone this fall.

 

Bullshit. The stock will mega-tank. The term "irrational exuberance" comes to mind when talking about AAPL. Any hiccup at all will bring out the sharp knives.

post #25 of 73

Isn't this basically what happens every quarter & then Apple reports better than expected?  Good grief.

post #26 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by MysticalOS View Post

this and no imac either. kind of hard to do good mac sales when you don't update them. laptops are selling well, but ignoring an entire market of desktop user kind of dampens mac sales.

Why, when modern computers already do 10x more than most people ever need? We're only people that would wait to buy because of a 10% performance bump, as we're the only ones who care.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #27 of 73

Of all the analysts to feature, why this guy? He was off (short) by 4.3 Billion for Q2. Why should I listen to him for Q3?

 

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/21/can-tuesdays-earnings-report-reverse-apples-2-week-slide/

 

Check out Andy Z at bullish cross for better AAPL and market analysis.

post #28 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

Erm, who cares! Mac's only make up a small fraction of the profits anyhow.

If Mac sales do happen to be down it will be because people were holding out, not because of cannibalization.

Yes it is the fact that Apple hasn't updated the hardware that is killing them. It is hardware that needs more in the way of updates than simple processor swaps. The Mac line up, especially the desktop range is extremely stale and no longer significant for customers. Thisis driving sales downward at a rather fast rate. Many of us want to see dramatically new machines for the desktop market that show the same commitment to engineering that the laptops get.
post #29 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

 

Perhaps you never have heard of them, and maybe their analysis is wrong. But this is a stupid statement. You're implying that because you've never heard of them they are ignorant nobodies.

 

Here's who they are:

 

 

It's not like this is three guys in a garage spouting their analysis on the internet or something.

 

I like that you copied and pasted from their own material.  Even if they were three guys in a garage they could still call themselves a "leading, full-service North American financial services provider offering equity and debt underwriting, corporate lending and project financing, merger and acquisitions advisory services, securitization, treasury management, market risk management, debt and equity research and institutional sales and trading."

 

Sure they're big, but there have been plenty of analysts from big firms who have been big wrong on a consistent basis. 

post #30 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Yes it is the fact that Apple hasn't updated the hardware that is killing them. It is hardware that needs more in the way of updates than simple processor swaps. The Mac line up, especially the desktop range is extremely stale and no longer significant for customers. Thisis driving sales downward at a rather fast rate. Many of us want to see dramatically new machines for the desktop market that show the same commitment to engineering that the laptops get.

But why do people care? Do you really expect us to believe the average man on the street knows or cares anything about that?

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #31 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by MysticalOS View Post

this and no imac either. kind of hard to do good mac sales when you don't update them. laptops are selling well, but ignoring an entire market of desktop user kind of dampens mac sales.
You are exactly right. This is especially the case when the desktop models are as outdated as they are. Apple really needs to pull a few rabbits out of the hat to revitalize Mac desktop sales.
post #32 of 73
How is this a problem?

"we are lowering our Mac forecast by 1.6 million units over the next six Qs," Bachman writes. "We think strong iPad demand is negatively affecting Mac sales, despite the recent MacBook refresh. For the next six Qs, we reduced our Mac sales by 40% of the increase in iPad sales."

So in other words, the Post-PC Era truly *is* upon us.

Carry on.
post #33 of 73
Even without the cannibalization angle it wasn't a very good quarter for Mac products. Late MBA & MBP updates, supply issues with the rMBP, no update to the iMac, Mac Mini or Mac Pro. It would not surprise me a bit if that ends up accounting for a 10-15% drop in sales alone. Apple really has to start doing a better job getting updates out in a timely fashion. When they are doing major redesigns it's worth waiting but just a spec bump here and there? They should be doing that within 30 days of Intel releasing new processors. That being said they will probably make-up most of that when these products are finally updated.
post #34 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Yes it is the fact that Apple hasn't updated the hardware that is killing them.

No, it's the iPad that is "killing" them. By the way, I'm sure the competition would love to experience being "killed" in such a manner. Their own blockbuster
computing product (to which others aspire with envy) on which the company has staked everything, outdoing their other products that represent the previous computing paradigm.
Can Dell please have that problem?

Joe Average isn't looking for updated specs. He's looking for "new" Macs, whatever might be inside the case. He isn't "holding off" for a new Intel processor.
And there are always Macs available to buy. Satisfaction ratings will be through the roof whether the model is a few months old or whether it's brand new.
Macs don't need to be updated frequently in order to break sales records. Because they are . . . Macs.

But they also don't compete too well against against Apple's blockbuster mobile lineup, which has progressively taken over the lead in profits, not to mention share.
And this is perfectly understandable, especially given the iPad.

The iPad and the iPad 3 especially, has taken the industry by storm, and Apple is feeling it.
This dip in Mac sales due to the iPad is not only a vindication of Steve Jobs' vision, it also sends
a clear message to PeeCee box-makers everywhere. You can, I'm sure, figure that message out for yourself.
Edited by Quadra 610 - 7/10/12 at 3:54pm
post #35 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by eksodos View Post

This is why I'm considering a switch back to Windows. I think the Mac's days are numbered.

Lol with Ballmer at the helm so are microsofts and windows.
post #36 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

All these years building a great OS to end up as the company that sells iOS - what happens when you put hotdogs and french fries on the menu.

The iOS dumbing down of Apple continues.

Dumbing down where? I have the latest version gm of mountain lion running on my mac right now and I am very impressed with the speed ups in system operation and web browsing also with graphics performance over lion it has improved all of these area significantly and more. If you want to command line it then do so mountain lion does that as well if you want to tinker. I dont know why people think that because the interface is elegant and simple it is "Dumbing Down".

It most certainly is not. It unclutters your gui and user experience and lets you get work done instead of dicking with settings and interface problems.
post #37 of 73
I can't follow what this analyst is saying. 1.6 million Macs is only $2 billion

Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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post #38 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

So in other words, the Post-PC Era truly *is* upon us.

 

Don't buy that sorry. If people are buying iPads instead of Macs it's a price thing rather then post-PC thing. It's the same reason we saw a sales spike when netbooks first came out.

post #39 of 73

Those who remember "Macintosh.  And Apple II, too." should be able to see "iOS.  And Mac, too.".

post #40 of 73
There wouldn't be any cannibalization if there wasn't such a sad convergence of the "pro" with the consumer product lines. as others have pointed out, if they'd build a mac pro worth buying, or even showed a little more love in helping to keep the current models more attractive (*ahem modern video card drivers*) then they'd be selling like hotcakes (or at least wedding cakes). To apple's credit though, i have to admit the other reason i'm still using my old mac pro is because it still works like a champ. is there anyway apple could have a more ecological product life cycle that wasn't so heavily dependent on planned obsolescence?
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