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Apple to post fiscal Q4 miss on cannibalized Mac sales, analyst says - Page 2

post #41 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

Don't buy that sorry. If people are buying iPads instead of Macs it's a price thing rather then post-PC thing. It's the same reason we saw a sales spike when netbooks first came out.

Price has never been the problem with Macs. They sold in record numbers even during a recession.

Unless you mean that iPad pricing makes iPads even more attractive. Then I'll agree.

Yes, I DO buy the Post-PC "story." 100%. We're seeing it unfold before our eyes. Watch for the iPad numbers on the 24th to see why.
post #42 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by cMka~+ View Post

There wouldn't be any cannibalization if there wasn't such a sad convergence of the "pro" with the consumer product lines.

Mac Pros don't have much effect on Mac sales. Apple doesn't sell nearly as many as they do laptops and even iMacs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cMka~+ View Post

There wouldn't be any cannibalization if there wasn't such a sad convergence of the "pro" with the consumer product lines.

That's the whole point. That's the powerful, meaningful trend here: the Rise of the Prosumer. And Apple is leading this charge in a big way. It's what is *supposed* to be happening.
post #43 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

 

Bullshit. The stock will mega-tank. The term "irrational exuberance" comes to mind when talking about AAPL. Any hiccup at all will bring out the sharp knives.

 

AAPL is not overvalued. P/E ratio about 15 which is normal for non-growth companies - which Apple isn't. Actually its the 66th percentile in its sector. This ratio assumes no market growth - it used to be in the 40's in 2009
 
The price to book vale is 5 down from 10 a few years ago. The market is continuously undervaluing aapl. that said I would love to see a miss this Q, goos buying opp.
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post #44 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

I like that you copied and pasted from their own material.  Even if they were three guys in a garage they could still call themselves a "leading, full-service North American financial services provider offering equity and debt underwriting, corporate lending and project financing, merger and acquisitions advisory services, securitization, treasury management, market risk management, debt and equity research and institutional sales and trading."

 

I like that you selectively quoted and omitted the most important parts:

 

 

Quote:
BMO Capital Markets has 2,200 employees operating in 30 locations around the world, including 17 in North America.
 
BMO Capital Markets is a part of BMO Financial Group (NYSE, TSX: BMO), one of the largest diversified financial services providers in North America with US$532 billion total assets and more than 46,500 employees as of April 30, 2012.
 
Established in 1817 as Bank of Montreal, BMO Financial Group is a highly diversified North American financial services organization.

 

Of course this could just be made up bullshit. But then the burden of proof is back on the "who are these guys?" "I've never heard of them" and "what do they know?" folks. They may indeed not know anything. But this was a typical Apple fanboi-ish response to anything even remotely negative about Apple.

 

I like that you also conveniently ignored that there's a wikipedia page suggesting a company with a fairly long history.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

Sure they're big, but there have been plenty of analysts from big firms who have been big wrong on a consistent basis. 

 

I haven't claimed they were right (or wrong). I was merely addressing the original poster's implication that because he had never heard of them, they were probably wrong or inconsequential.

 

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post #45 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Price has never been the problem with Macs. They sold in record numbers even during a recession.

 

If price is not a problem with Macs then why do they still only have a 5-10% market share? The simple truth is that many people buying the iPad have come from the Windows PC world rather than the Mac world. Even Apple admitted that a significant proportion of iPad buyers are new to Apple. The reason they are buying the iPad is because it's affordable whereas they would not have bought a Mac in the past because they were too expensive compared to the average Windows PC.

 

You can call the iPad a cheaper Mac if you want. I still think that ultimately once the hype is over most people will continue to use a desktop or laptop as their primary computer with a tablet device as a secondary machine.

post #46 of 73

the sky is falling!

post #47 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

 

Besides, who is this "investment firm BMO Capital"?  Never heard of them.  What do they know?

Only part of the most powerful and sound banking system in the whole world; but you realize the USA is not the centre of the world eh?

post #48 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

If price is not a problem with Macs then why do they still only have a 5-10% market share? The simple truth is that many people buying the iPad have come from the Windows PC world rather than the Mac world. Even Apple admitted that a significant proportion of iPad buyers are new to Apple. The reason they are buying the iPad is because it's affordable whereas they would not have bought a Mac in the past because they were too expensive compared to the average Windows PC.

You can call the iPad a cheaper Mac if you want. I still think that ultimately once the hype is over most people will continue to use a desktop or laptop as their primary computer with a tablet device as a secondary machine.

Alright, I can agree with a lot of this. Price has always been a barrier to entry into the Apple ecosystem via Macs. Unless we're talking about the Mini, the entry fee is $1000+.
post #49 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

the sky is falling!

You spelled that wrong. It's "Apple is doomed!™".

post #50 of 73

Actually there is an updated Mac Pro:

 

http://www.apple.com/macpro/

post #51 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

 

I like that you selectively quoted and omitted the most important parts:

 

 

 

Of course this could just be made up bullshit. But then the burden of proof is back on the "who are these guys?" "I've never heard of them" and "what do they know?" folks. They may indeed not know anything. But this was a typical Apple fanboi-ish response to anything even remotely negative about Apple.

 

I like that you also conveniently ignored that there's a wikipedia page suggesting a company with a fairly long history.

 

 

I haven't claimed they were right (or wrong). I was merely addressing the original poster's implication that because he had never heard of them, they were probably wrong or inconsequential.

 


I didn't cut out your "quote" AI just didn't include it when I "quoted" you, apparently because of how you quoted it.  The only point I was trying to make is that it is much sounder to use impartial descriptions rather than self descriptions.  I would have copied Wikipedia's info or some other 3rd party source.  Anyone can say nice things about themselves. 

 

To your last line, if you read Apple Blogs often enough you usually hear about the analysts who are from the biggest firms as well as about the people who are most consistently accurate (Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross for example).  So, to say he'd never heard of them so they are probably wrong could hold some water in that regard.

post #52 of 73
Well put.
post #53 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Why, when modern computers already do 10x more than most people ever need? We're only people that would wait to buy because of a 10% performance bump, as we're the only ones who care.

 

Probably. Maybe Mac users wait because, unlike the PC Windows market, Apple users keep their computers, as useful, way longer than PCs. I realized my remark is anecdotal and reflects my buying habits but I like to think I'm typical Mac user.

post #54 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


So… do we use Trojans to protect against trojans? I'm confused.
And what happens if she blue screens midway? I shudder to think.

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes.

 

Don't fear trojans - fear the greeks!

post #55 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


Yes it is the fact that Apple hasn't updated the hardware that is killing them. It is hardware that needs more in the way of updates than simple processor swaps. The Mac line up, especially the desktop range is extremely stale and no longer significant for customers. Thisis driving sales downward at a rather fast rate. Many of us want to see dramatically new machines for the desktop market that show the same commitment to engineering that the laptops get.

 

The current iMac is the best selling iMac ever. It's hard to upgrade perfection. Well, I'm bad on that one but there isn't that much in Apple's iMac that really needs changing. I don't want to see any Mac changed because a few people think it's stale. Stale is a element of fashion not capability. 

post #56 of 73

Just another ANAL-IST (no spelling mistake) trying to create a buying opportunity  for himself.

post #57 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

The only point I was trying to make is that it is much sounder to use impartial descriptions rather than self descriptions. Anyone can say nice things about themselves.

 

Agreed. But I wasn't planning to spend much time pointing out the fact that this isn't fly by night operation...and that took all of about 10 seconds.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

I would have copied Wikipedia's info or some other 3rd party source.

 

See above. I did include a link to Wikipedia.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

To your last line, if you read Apple Blogs often enough you usually hear about the analysts who are from the biggest firms as well as about the people who are most consistently accurate (Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross for example).  So, to say he'd never heard of them so they are probably wrong could hold some water in that regard.

 

Possibly. But geez...this ain't exactly a small firm.

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post #58 of 73
I assume no one thinks Apple will sell Macs than they did the same quarter last year. If that happens then we really are in a post-PC market that clearly is being affected by the iPad in an amazing way. I'm guessing that Mac sales will be higher than last year and that they will be above the industry average for growth. I'm also hoping that this Autumn will be the start of a new Mac campaign. I'm thinking that with the Retina Macs, Mountain Lion, and Window 8 all arriving it's the perfect time to launch a new campaign.

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post #59 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

What does that matter? Steve already explained the PC days are numbered. 

 

Yep. These guys act like Apple is expecting their Mac sales to go through the roof and it won't. But for all we know Apple does not expect any such thing and the sales numbers could be right where they (Apple) expect and want them to be

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #60 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

 

If price is not a problem with Macs then why do they still only have a 5-10% market share? The simple truth is that many people buying the iPad have come from the Windows PC world rather than the Mac world. Even Apple admitted that a significant proportion of iPad buyers are new to Apple. The reason they are buying the iPad is because it's affordable whereas they would not have bought a Mac in the past because they were too expensive compared to the average Windows PC.

 

You can call the iPad a cheaper Mac if you want. I still think that ultimately once the hype is over most people will continue to use a desktop or laptop as their primary computer with a tablet device as a secondary machine.

 

Do you realize what it means to produce 5% of all the computers in the world? Even 1% more is almost impossible to do because of production capacity and logistics.

As you know Apples Mac share is growing every year and if you look at the number of Macs produced its absolutely phenomenal.

If you look at the notebooks Apple has about 25% of the market in the U.S., and thats incredible for one company.

So its a fact that the price isn't a problem at all.

 

And Apple didn't 'admit that a significant portion of iPad buyers are new to Apple', because admitting it would be a negative spin.

But probably Apple did state that a significant portion of iPad buyers are new to Apple, as they did several times for the Mac.

This is of course a huge plus for Apple because people will be inclined to try other Apple products like Macs and this will increase the sales even more.

 

And no, no one is buying an iPad because they cannot buy a Mac.

Thats insane, because it isn't a complete replacement for a PC and seen as an expensive luxury toy (two of the most common heard negative comments).

 

The iPad is a distinct product and is better at some tasks than any Mac, its also used differently. 

If you define primary computer as the one you use the most, the iPad is my primary computer already, and hype doesn't have anything to do with it.

When Apple releases an A4 pad it will be my only computer.

 

J.

post #61 of 73

Well have a look at windows 8 going forward is hrrable for hardware over clockers. I think Windows 7 DRM sucks too big time. Linux is not ready for prime time. So for me Mac OSX it is.
 

post #62 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

 

Do you realize what it means to produce 5% of all the computers in the world? Even 1% more is almost impossible to do because of production capacity and logistics.

As you know Apples Mac share is growing every year and if you look at the number of Macs produced its absolutely phenomenal.

If you look at the notebooks Apple has about 25% of the market in the U.S., and thats incredible for one company.

So its a fact that the price isn't a problem at all.

 

And Apple didn't 'admit that a significant portion of iPad buyers are new to Apple', because admitting it would be a negative spin.

But probably Apple did state that a significant portion of iPad buyers are new to Apple, as they did several times for the Mac.

This is of course a huge plus for Apple because people will be inclined to try other Apple products like Macs and this will increase the sales even more.

 

And no, no one is buying an iPad because they cannot buy a Mac.

Thats insane, because it isn't a complete replacement for a PC and seen as an expensive luxury toy (two of the most common heard negative comments).

 

The iPad is a distinct product and is better at some tasks than any Mac, its also used differently. 

If you define primary computer as the one you use the most, the iPad is my primary computer already, and hype doesn't have anything to do with it.

When Apple releases an A4 pad it will be my only computer.

 

J.

 

Yes, sadly... There just some things that an iPad can do that a "proper computer" cannot!

 

 

 

This is Deron Williams signing a $98 Million NBA contract on his iPad

 

deron-williams-ipad-contract.png?w=657&h=472

 

http://************/2012/07/10/this-is-deron-williams-signing-a-98-million-nba-contract-on-his-ipad/

 

 

Now, that's creating content!


Edited by Dick Applebaum - 7/11/12 at 6:52am
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post #63 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I assume no one thinks Apple will sell Macs than they did the same quarter last year. If that happens then we really are in a post-PC market that clearly is being affected by the iPad in an amazing way. I'm guessing that Mac sales will be higher than last year and that they will be above the industry average for growth. I'm also hoping that this Autumn will be the start of a new Mac campaign. I'm thinking that with the Retina Macs, Mountain Lion, and Window 8 all arriving it's the perfect time to launch a new campaign.

 

Here's a start!

 

http://store.apple.com/us/browse/campaigns/back_to_school/ipad?cid=CDM-US-DM-P0012990-SB-RO&cp=em-P0012990-190705&sr=em

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post #64 of 73

Hedge fund clients ran out of money in the last quarter because of Euro crisis. Now come July and there aren't enough fresh cash waiting on the sideline to enter Nasdaq. They just can't afford that at $600. Reinassance and the like want AAPL to cut the price down to $550 or something that size so new buyers, new clients can get in again. Of course they can jack it back later before iDividen announces.

post #65 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

And no, no one is buying an iPad because they cannot buy a Mac.

 

That's certainly not my experience. I know quite a few iPad users who are also Windows PC users. When I ask them why they don't buy a Mac they always say the same thing - Macs are just too expensive.

 

IMHO the key selling point of the iPad is that it's not a Mac or PC it's something completely new and it's affordable.

post #66 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by eksodos View Post

This is why I'm considering a switch back to Windows. I think the Mac's days are numbered.


All of our days are numbered.

 

I'd love it if you switched back to Windows, so I can tell people there was at least one person who did.

 

Let us all know when you actually do it.

post #67 of 73

Yeah because the VERY same people who buy a pad would otherwise be buying a MAC PRO desktop tower and giant monitor?

 

That particular axe don't grind here.

post #68 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

Hedge fund clients ran out of money in the last quarter because of Euro crisis. Now come July and there aren't enough fresh cash waiting on the sideline to enter Nasdaq. They just can't afford that at $600. Reinassance and the like want AAPL to cut the price down to $550 or something that size so new buyers, new clients can get in again. Of course they can jack it back later before iDividen announces.

So they are buying just ONE share and have only $550 in their wallets?

 

Now Buffet's stock does have such a price barrier, but who's only going to buy ONE share of Apple? For those who'd want 10 shares and only have $5,500 they can buy nine right?: $5,400 with a bit of change left over... they're still then in Apple. Or scale that to a hundred or thousand and such. 

post #69 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

I know quite a few iPad users who are also Windows PC users. When I ask them why they don't buy a Mac they always say the same thing - Macs are just too expensive..

That's not necessarily related to buying an iPad instead.

J.
post #70 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

 

If price is not a problem with Macs then why do they still only have a 5-10% market share? The simple truth is that many people buying the iPad have come from the Windows PC world rather than the Mac world. Even Apple admitted that a significant proportion of iPad buyers are new to Apple. The reason they are buying the iPad is because it's affordable whereas they would not have bought a Mac in the past because they were too expensive compared to the average Windows PC.

 

You can call the iPad a cheaper Mac if you want. I still think that ultimately once the hype is over most people will continue to use a desktop or laptop as their primary computer with a tablet device as a secondary machine.

Sometimes "Good enough" is only good enough. Many people are perfectly happy with non-Apple devices. There are also plenty of people who want the Apple OS, but not the hardware Apple produces. All the hackintosh people would love a legal way to run OS X without having to buy Apple hardware. Yet many of these people building the things, are only doing so because Apple doesn't produce any bleeding edge models. Your average PC gamer probably built their PC or at least upgraded the video card twice before replacing it altogether. The ones that spend a small fortune on bleeding edge PC parts, would love to have OS X, but games aren't released for OS X first, or ever in many cases. The fact that the video card can't be upgraded in anything but the Mac Pro makes most Mac Desktops not compelling to gamers. 

 

In the end, sometimes there are destructive cycles caused by not offering a compelling product near the bleeding edge. You'd see a large earnings miss if Apple decided to skip a product refresh of the iPhone, because customers do exactly that... hold out for the next model. 

 

I'd never buy an iMac because of the non-upgradeable/nature of the video card and screen. When I've built a desktop, I pick a mid-level (100$) price point for the GPU, and then replace it every 3 cycles (eg Radeon 26xx - HD 57xx) or as opposed to buying the most expensive part. You can't do this with a 3 year old iMac. Only the MacMini is even cheap enough to consider replacing in a 3 year cycle. Desktops should have a 7 year life cycle. If there was some way to upgrade the iMac's video card twice over a 7 year lifetime, I'd probably buy one. Only the Mac Pro and MacMini are options I consider for Mac desktops. Even then, The MacMini needs to go quadcore and have a dedicated GPU before I'll consider buying a new one. The existing 2006 model works fine as a backup system/web-surfer/dvd-player. I can't do Xcode work on it because It can't run the current or next OSX.

 

Also look at the secondary market for the preowned Mac's. Just because you can't have the latest model, doesn't mean there aren't buyers for older models. Regardless of Mountain Lion not being usable on them.

post #71 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

So they are buying just ONE share and have only $550 in their wallets?

 

Now Buffet's stock does have such a price barrier, but who's only going to buy ONE share of Apple? For those who'd want 10 shares and only have $5,500 they can buy nine right?: $5,400 with a bit of change left over... they're still then in Apple. Or scale that to a hundred or thousand and such. 

No, not like that. Retail buyers like you can buy one stock, but places like Renaissance and Vanguard can't do that. They buy in bulks. But now their clients drive the bargain so hard that the cut they can take from $600 per share won't make a profit. Only drive it down to $550 or something then they can sell AAPL to their new clients or sell some more, and still retain the same amount of cut they will get. Or at least get another &50 per share plus fees while clients get the stock at the price they want to pay the fund. At $600 per share, hedge funds may get $0.

 

Retail investors eat off iDividens and price rises, hedge fund eat off fees and percentage cuts.

 

Think of how supermarkets squeeze suppliers so they can get more money from the cut while give you lower sticker price. Apple stock is under the same rule.

post #72 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Misa View Post
Also look at the secondary market for the preowned Mac's. Just because you can't have the latest model, doesn't mean there aren't buyers for older models. Regardless of Mountain Lion not being usable on them.

Sonds like iPhone situation in Asia, where the biggest competitor are used iPhones.

post #73 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by eksodos View Post

This is why I'm considering a switch back to Windows. I think the Mac's days are numbered.


Not meaning to be snarky, but so are the Earth's. But I wouldn't suggest boarding a spaceship destined for a Mars colony quite yet. Making a switch to another OS, based on pure speculation about some possible (distant) future event, just doesn't make very much sense to me. By the time the Earth becomes uninhabitable, you and I will likely have been dead for many, many years. And by the time the Mac (OS and computer line) sees its last day, whatever computer you own now will likely be so obsolete that it will be little more than a giant paper weight anyway.

 

Just sayin'...

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