Apple attributes growth slowdown to sluggish economy, rumors of new products - Page 2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mechanic 

Lets not forget that apple beat there own guidance again, the only disappointment here is the pundits are upset there stupid forecasts did not pan out so they immediately call it a miss.  The miss was not on apples part they did what they promised and more, it was on the stupid pundits part who cant forecast anything about apple right.

If Apple ever fails to meet their own highly conservative estimates then they really will be in trouble. Nobody believes those estimates.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun, UK 

 

Most economists expect the global economic crisis to get worse before it gets better and continue on towards the end of this decade. Europe is on the verge of meltdown. The US national debt is at startling levels and continues to rise, even the BRIC economies such as China are starting to slow down considerably with thousands of Chinese workers being laid off every day believe it or not.

 

I would be amazed if those insane results came back anytime soon.

Sorry, thats garbage. Apple has proven itself immune to the global economy, over and over again. The current iPhone is 8 months old, 26 million a quarter is pretty damn impressive in that sense, and they smashed their iPad records. Yes, we will see insane numbers, more insane then we've ever seen during the quarter of the next iPhone launch. Look at what the 4S did, being a device physically identical to the 4S, and deemed a massive dissapointment by the tech community. The next iPhone will be completely redesigned, and will fuel an unheard of amount of sales, regardless of the state of the economy. 

I find it comical that Apple is blaming the economy for sluggish sales given how Apple products have been always proven recession proof, perhaps not.  Perhaps users are smart enough this time around to wait for the iP5 or iP6 or New iPhone or Next iPhone or whatever its going to be called due to the rumored NFC, LTE and larger screen.  Can we be blamed for NOT wanting to spend money on a model that is outdated in 3 months and be old and a year of obsolesence built into it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slurpy 

 

Sorry, thats garbage. Apple has proven itself immune to the global economy, over and over again. The current iPhone is 8 months old, 26 million a quarter is pretty damn impressive in that sense, and they smashed their iPad records. Yes, we will see insane numbers, more insane then we've ever seen during the quarter of the next iPhone launch. Look at what the 4S did, being a device physically identical to the 4S, and deemed a massive dissapointment by the tech community. The next iPhone will be completely redesigned, and will fuel an unheard of amount of sales, regardless of the state of the economy. 

Sorry, no one is immune to the global economy. well, maybe except for arms merchants.

next year could be very bad - for everybody. worst case, Apple sales growth goes flat, or even down some. worse for Samsung. RIM and Nokia die. big drops for MS and the rest.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rogifan 


Yep I think broader economic issues caused the bad quarter moreso than people fleeing iPhone for Samsung. Dow was down over 100 points today, there's talk about another recession coming. Maybe some on wall street thought Apple was immune to all of that. They're finding out now it's not.

I think talk about a new extended recession in the US may be true. After the election, expect another terrible crash in the market no matter who is elected. If Obama, it will crash because quantitative easing will end and Obama will be a lame duck president. If Romney is elected, it will collapse because the criminals in charge now will face being replaced with a whole new gang of criminals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GadgetCanada 

Samsung sells 10 million GSIII's in 2 months and everyone is blown away.

Apple sells 26 million iPhones in 3 months and it's their worst quarter in years. And let's not even discuss tablet sales.

 

Yup, Apple is sure doomed

It's amazing what a little perspective can do. 

Apple is growing like crazy year after year. Even with an allegedly weak product offering this year, look what they have *still* accomplished, in both Mac sales and especially iPad sales. 17 Million iPads. That is mind-boggling, to say the least.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slurpy 

 

Apple has proven itself immune to the global economy, over and over again. 

We'll see.

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Originally Posted by Shaun, UK 
We'll see.

Unless Germany reintroduces the mark, we can safely say that Apple is going to continue its rise and financial success. We have proof of this, given that they posted record quarters every single quarter during the recent recession.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alfiejr 

Sorry, no one is immune to the global economy. well, maybe except for arms merchants.

Even the arms manufacturers are laying off thousands of people here in the UK as the UK defence budget is slashed. They are closing one of the UK's oldest tank factories just down the road from me because apparently nobody is buying tanks. I think people are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think Apple will somehow remain immune from all this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun, UK 
I think people are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think Apple will somehow remain immune from all this.

Well, again, they have been for the past four years. Unless this intensifies drastically (like the example I gave), nothing is going to change with Apple. They know what they're doing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun, UK 

 

Even the arms manufacturers are laying off thousands of people here in the UK as the UK defence budget is slashed. They are closing one of the UK's oldest tank factories just down the road from me because apparently nobody is buying tanks. I think people are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think Apple will somehow remain immune from all this.

well i guess that's the silver lining on the gathering global economic storm clouds.

next year will be worse economically worldwide. the only question is how much worse.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alfiejr 
next year will be worse economically worldwide. the only question is how much worse.

Depends on the corn.

And there are no ears on the cornstalks where I live.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alfiejr 

well, IMHO i expect the wider/longer screen plus 4G for #5 will generate a lot of consumer enthusiasm

What I find frustrating as someone who has invested in an Apple ecosystem is the WAIT for features others seem to bring to market so much more quickly and easily.  I'm not excited that a future iPhone may finally have 4G capability, I'm embarrassed that there STILL isn't one NOW when EVERY competitor not only already offers that, but has for a long time now.  Even *rumoured* products fall short of features other suppliers already include, like near-field RF.

What the market is responding to may well be the paradigm shift that has Apple playing catch-up instead of leading.  Has ANYONE (besides fanboys) EVER actually bought an Apple product because it had a "Retina" display?  Would the time, money and attention spent pursuing that be better spent on features that make a more significant contribution to the user experience than "Oh yes, I suppose that *does* look pretty, doesn't it?"

Quote:

Originally Posted by wizard69 


Do you realize how stupid that sounds? First the design has changed considerablely with the retina MBP and what makes the MBP the MBP has changed dramtically in the 2012 models. Randomly changing the design of a MBP makes about as much sense as changing the design on a deck of cards. In both cases they are tools through which one exercises skills. They are not fashion accessories.

No it does not sound stupid at all. Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model. When the design does change, it will make my laptop appear outdated and I'll be forced to upgrade. So I am basically waiting for a new design to upgrade. And unless you are blind, the Retina Display Macbook Pro isn't a complete redesign. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rogifan 

As predicted the media is writing Tim Cook's obituary already.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/07/24/steve-jobs-shoes-look-too-big-to-fill-after-apples-second-miss-under-cook/?partner=yahoofeed
I'm curious what they think Steve Jobs would have done differently these past 10 months had he been around. I have my reservations about Cook (I think he's more of an operations guy than a product guy) but its way to early to be digging his grave.

Ha! They've been burying Apple for the past 20 years. This is no different. It's all about pressuring the stock so they can buy it cheaper.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ewan 

No it does not sound stupid at all. Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model.

1. You might upgrade because you want Thunderbolt ports.
2. Maybe you want USB 3 ports.
3. Faster graphics might be important to you.
4. Maybe quad core processors are needed by your work load.
5. Maybe upgraded storage capability is important to you.
6. Maybe all around better performance floats your boat.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ewan 
Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model.

Your fallacy is in thinking this matters at all.

Come off it.

Maybe if they had cheaper stuff and their margins were not insanely high, they would sell more Macs (and iPhones overseas).

(Typing this from my MacBook Pro)

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

 

What I find frustrating as someone who has invested in an Apple ecosystem is the WAIT for features others seem to bring to market so much more quickly and easily.  I'm not excited that a future iPhone may finally have 4G capability, I'm embarrassed that there STILL isn't one NOW when EVERY competitor not only already offers that, but has for a long time now.  Even *rumoured* products fall short of features other suppliers already include, like near-field RF.

 

What the market is responding to may well be the paradigm shift that has Apple playing catch-up instead of leading.  Has ANYONE (besides fanboys) EVER actually bought an Apple product because it had a "Retina" display?  Would the time, money and attention spent pursuing that be better spent on features that make a more significant contribution to the user experience than "Oh yes, I suppose that *does* look pretty, doesn't it?"

well gadget lovers always want the latest and greatest gizmos. so Apple's steady pace frustrates. but gadget lovers are maybe 10% of the market. the vast majority of consumers want Just Works (or otherwise, really cheap).

what i notice is how Apple keeps steadily improving its Just Works (e.g., Mountain Lion which you can pick up tomorrow). the iPhone camera for example is a great little camera with great software (that is not true for most of the competition). and a lot of consumers really use it a lot and are happy as a result. more megapixels or "features" are unnecessary. they threw in Photo Booth for fun last year, and kids love it. Apple always adds some fun stuff. Siri is still a work in progress - still a beta until iOS 6 i guess. i think most people still feel weird talking to their gadgets as if they were alive. but the Just Works Facebook integration with iOS 6 is going to be a big hit with consumers.

you're just going to have to deal with your impatience.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wizard69 


In the past some of those estimates have been smashed by things out of Apples control. For example the crash in DRAM and Flash pricing or MS shooting itself in the foot many times over. It isn't that Apple is low balling projections it is rather that things are happening faster in the market and to their advantage than anybody expected. The near death of RIM for example is a significant factor in iPhones rise, they simply could not provide a coherent response to the surprise of many in the industry. Nokia likewise has shot themselves in the foot so many times it is pathetic.
In many cases Apple has gotten better than expected results simply because the competition gave them so much of the market. As excutives Apple has no idea really as to how badly the excutive teams at the competition will screw up, they only really know about their products an initial conditions a month or so before the next quarter. Just as they may have predicted the future a bit today, it is still based mostly on what they know about in the last month and there hoped for product release.
It is neither conservative nor liberal in fact there is some guess work and a lot of experience going into these forcasts. A lot can happen in three months to make the projections look like crap. This is especially the case these days where the economic outlook is shaky at best and very dynamic.
So frankly you are full of crap when you say nobody believes those numbers. Those are the only numbers that are based on facts. The so called analyst have nothing at all that could be called fact, if they did that would most likely be illegal. All they can do is to try to survey the market and apmake projections based on that. Apple on the other hand has real data that can provide trends used for projections, it also has real knowledge of new hardware. All of these things add up to a composite that provides for real guidance. Mind you guidance for three months of activity that hasn't happened yet.
Now look at this from the standpoint of the analysts. They get to make their predictions days before Apple releases it's numbers. If they had been doing their homework, that is surveying the market, they should have been able to predict with fair accuracy how well Apple did. Instead they didn't even come close. So why does anybody even bother with these silly assed folks? I mean really the dart board is just as reliable.

I think you're the one "talking crap". Apple has all the sales numbers to hand and yet they consistently under-estimate their forward sales projections. The reason they do it is so every earnings call they can come on and say "we are very happy, we beat our estimates, the future looks bright". It's a business tactic. Keep the news cycle upbeat and positive. Much like limiting the production of new products so there is always a shortage so that they get a lot of free publicity and generate a buzz around the new product.

PS I don't give a s*** about the analysts estimates. I never take any notice of them. I prefer to deal in cold hard facts and actual numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ewan 

 

 

No it does not sound stupid at all. Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model. When the design does change, it will make my laptop appear outdated and I'll be forced to upgrade. So I am basically waiting for a new design to upgrade. And unless you are blind, the Retina Display Macbook Pro isn't a complete redesign. 

+1

I don't need to upgrade but I probably would anyway if they came out with a new design or colour scheme simply because I like to change things every so often otherwise life gets very dull. I don't need a Retina Display so I'm not planning to upgrade this year, especially given the price premium for the Retina model.

If they don't change the design I just keep using my current machine for a few years more until it dies and I have to upgrade. Apple relies on upgrades to keep their sales momentum going so they are the ones losing out. I might upgrade every 5 or 6 years instead of every 2 or 3 years, which means less sales for Apple.

Apple used to change the design of the iPod every year, year after year, so people would buy the new one every year. That policy proved very successful and very profitable. And yet we get the same basic Mac design year after year. Redesigns stimulate sales - everyone who doesn't have their head up their backside knows that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ewan 

No it does not sound stupid at all. 

Yes, yes, I'm afraid it does.

So you buy your kit based on what it looks like? My friend, you must have serious self-esteem issues. 

Well, here's a tip to save money. Take your untrendy old machine and cover it in tin foil. 

See? Now it's all nice and super-shiny. Think how massively cool you'll look next time you're in Starbucks,  rockin' your limited-edition Alcan Macbook

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun, UK 

 

Does that really matter. If all the Android manufacturers collectively sell 100 million phones and Apple sells 26 million but is number one because the Android market is fragmented across many manufacturers does that make a difference.

 Oh yes it does, where it matter most. Market Share is a bragging act. PROFITS matter, and Apple has it so far ahead of Google/Android, it's a different universe. Apple's cycles are clean and precise, one phone that defines that segment of the brand. I'm not opposed to them branching into more phone/s, but I think their approach now is brilliant, and tactful. They make more MONEY because they put all their efforts into one amazing phone, and due to that, it stays relevant and even dominating for much longer than its competitors offerings. Not to mention, builds up great hype, etc.

The real crime here is Wall Street, period. These IDIOT "ANAL-ISTS" guess random numbers, and when Apple doesn't hit it due to having NO obligation to fill an IRRELEVANT number by some empty suit who probably couldn't get a job in Apple's mailroom, Investors get punished. This was a great quarter, with a great excuse as to why it wasn't a better quarter. The money is simply being redistributed to upcoming quarters and products, i.e people are waiting cash in hand for Apple products.... they're just timing it due to being so involved in the brand, they know when what's coming when.

It's criminal how Analysts get away with this stuff.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Godzilla 

 Oh yes it does, where it matter most. Market Share is a bragging act. PROFITS matter, and Apple has it so far ahead of Google/Android, it's a different universe. Apple's cycles are clean and precise, one phone that defines that segment of the brand. I'm not opposed to them branching into more phone/s, but I think their approach now is brilliant, and tactful. They make more MONEY because they put all their efforts into one amazing phone, and due to that, it stays relevant and even dominating for much longer than its competitors offerings. Not to mention, builds up great hype, etc.

That's the thing.

Apple's share of the PC market is tiny, but how many of the other thousands of OEMs are making anywhere near as much money selling PCs?

Yes, looking at the figures collectively is great, but it doesn't matter to HP, or Dell or anyone else. What they care about are their own sales and their own margins on those sales.

Market share is nowhere near as important as profit. If Jobs hadn't learned that then Apple would have failed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun, UK 

 

+1

 

I don't need to upgrade but I probably would anyway if they came out with a new design or colour scheme simply because I like to change things every so often otherwise life gets very dull. I don't need a Retina Display so I'm not planning to upgrade this year, especially given the price premium for the Retina model.

 

If they don't change the design I just keep using my current machine for a few years more until it dies and I have to upgrade. Apple relies on upgrades to keep their sales momentum going so they are the ones losing out. I might upgrade every 5 or 6 years instead of every 2 or 3 years, which means less sales for Apple.

 

Apple used to change the design of the iPod every year, year after year, so people would buy the new one every year. That policy proved very successful and very profitable. And yet we get the same basic Mac design year after year. Redesigns stimulate sales - everyone who doesn't have their head up their backside knows that.

Then why are Apple's Mac sales still increasing?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AppleInsider 

Despite posting $8.8 billion in profits and selling a record 17 million iPads, Apple's third quarter of fiscal 2012 is seen by the market as a disappointment.

I saw this economic briefing this morning:

"The markets are extremely anxious that Spain will need a full bailout and as the 4th largest economy in the Euro Zone that would have significant ramifications. Over in Greece meanwhile, and wait for this, are you sitting down?... it is looking likely that they will fall short of their bailout terms. Yesterday saw German coalition members calling for Greece to exit stating that it could recover and regain competitiveness more quickly outside the EuroZone (and we don’t want to hand over any more money!) Overnight Japan posted falling export numbers recording its’ first decline in 4 months reflecting the European crisis, a slowdown in China and a drop in domestic demand. Japan’s economy is the world’s 3rd largest behind that of the US and China. It is still due to out-perform most other developed countries this year, but domestic appetite is a key factor in this and so future activity will be monitored closely."

Against this backdrop, is it that bad a performance?

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Originally Posted by Rayz 

 

Then why are Apple's Mac sales still increasing?

There is still a bit left among those who actually had their Mac died and have to upgrade regardless, some more who came away from Windows world, fashionitas bring up the rear.

Sales are increasing, but now mainly through Apple taking a bigger slice from a shrinking pie.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun, UK 

 

PS I don't give a s*** about the analysts estimates. I never take any notice of them. I prefer to deal in cold hard facts and actual numbers.

So do yo think Tim take this Second Depression into account? Jobs might told his tream to prepare for Category 2 economic storm, but now he are hit with Category 5.

Willing buyers with fistful of cash queueing outside the Manhattan Cube from 2007 to 2010 do not have that cash anymore. The Chinese having to tightening the belt, numbers are good buy the growth is slower now. And Brazil may or may not be a hot air.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fairthrope 
So do yo think Tim take this Second Depression into account?

This isn't a depression. A depression will be what happens in the spring after food prices skyrocket this winter because of a combination of two summers in a row where the corn crop was anemic and the weather we're expected to get in the coming months (I've heard "like the winters of the late '70s" from multiple sources).

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Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

This isn't a depression. A depression will be what happens in the spring after food prices skyrocket this winter because of a combination of two summers in a row where the corn crop was anemic and the weather we're expected to get in the coming months (I've heard "like the winters of the late '70s" from multiple sources).

A 21st century Dustbowl?

Are we going to get as bad as some Apple customers have to choose between food/rent/travel or iPhone monthly payment? They did during 1998 Asian Crisis, mobile phones lost in all cases.

Funny now, but if that kind of Depression hits...

I'm expecting to be able to buy Drachma after Jan 2013, Deustechmark some times before 2013 ends, and be able to pay 26 Baht for one U.S. Dollar not long after ward.