Apple attributes growth slowdown to sluggish economy, rumors of new products - Page 3

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Originally Posted by Fairthrope 
A 21st century Dustbowl?

Um… in spirit, but not operationally. That was caused by not rotating crops and was a destruction of the soil. These last two years have just been because of a lack of rainfall. If we get more rain next year, everything goes back to normal.

But any future depression is going to be started the same way as the first one: something went wrong with food.

Yeah, Anazasi Indians in New Mexico said just that; hang in there, we have three years worth of corn. But the El nino drought hit them for six years. Those who weren't starved or cooked and eaten migrated away and assimilated into Pueblo Indians today. All is left was ruins for tourists. I have a hunch this is another one.

How long do you think Apple's cash supply can keep them operational should the Second Depression really hit, and the U.S. sales drop by half for a long period of time, say, 5 years or more?

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Originally Posted by Fairthrope 
I have a hunch this is another one.

Now that's what I call hyperbole!

If they stopped selling all products today, Apple has enough cash to run them for a decade.

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Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

If they stopped selling all products today, Apple has enough cash to run them for a decade.

 Nine years supply of rainy days fund, got it.

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Originally Posted by Fairthrope 
Nine years supply of rainy days fund, got it.

And that's incredible, isn't it? Is there any other company (or government! or HOUSEHOLD!) on the planet that could do that?

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Originally Posted by Rayz 

 

Then why are Apple's Mac sales still increasing?

Because more people are buying Macs. What's your point? Mas still only account for about 5 - 10% of the PC market worldwide. Small numbers = big percentage increases. It's basic maths.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fairthrope 

So do yo think Tim take this Second Depression into account? Jobs might told his tream to prepare for Category 2 economic storm, but now he are hit with Category 5.

 

Willing buyers with fistful of cash queueing outside the Manhattan Cube from 2007 to 2010 do not have that cash anymore. The Chinese having to tightening the belt, numbers are good buy the growth is slower now. And Brazil may or may not be a hot air.

The bigger Apple gets the harder it is to maintain epic sales growth every quarter year after year. Earnings and profits will continue to grow but at a slower pace. The worldwide economic crisis will inevitably have some affect on Apple simply because the bigger you are the more customers you have and therefore the more exposed you become. It's not just rich people buying Apple products anymore it's also the increasingly squeezed middle class and they are the ones losing their jobs or facing higher taxes the world over.

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Originally Posted by Rogifan 

[...] To me all of this proves Apple is NOT obsessed with form over function.

On the other hand, there are signs in the last year or two that suggest a trend in the direction of form-over-function:

They dumped compatibility with world-wide industry standards in RAM and storage devices in order to make their new computer one eighth of an inch thinner. Admirable goal in the abstract, questionable gain vs. cost in practical terms.

They have a hard-on for high pixel density displays 'cause they're cool.  Not much *real* benefit to users, but they *are* better so why not, right?  Except that since those don't exist in a 17" version Apple just stopped offering a portable with a 17" display.  That has a DETRIMENTAL affect on users for whom screen area is the primary priority.

The iPhone has a talking lady built-in, but NOT turn-by-turn navigation or an NFC payment system. The former improves interaction but doesn't provide any capability that doesn't exist without the talking lady.  The latter are examples of things with less gee-quiz factor but more actual benefit to the user (and are present in EVERY competitor's products).

I think we ARE seeing several examples of Apple making "kewl" more important than "kapable."

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fairthrope 

A 21st century Dustbowl?

 

Are we going to get as bad as some Apple customers have to choose between food/rent/travel or iPhone monthly payment? They did during 1998 Asian Crisis, mobile phones lost in all cases.

 

Funny now, but if that kind of Depression hits...

 

I'm expecting to be able to buy Drachma after Jan 2013, Deustechmark some times before 2013 ends, and be able to pay 26 Baht for one U.S. Dollar not long after ward.

You may want to consider buying numismatic gold coins instead.

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Originally Posted by sleepy3 

 

I think apple will be just fine. 

 

To me, there won't be trouble till an iphone launches and fails to outsell the previous launch (i.e. fails to set a new record). That's when the alarm bells will start ringing.

 

But i do not see that happening for a LOOONG time.

 

As for the analysts. Its the way the game works, miss their estimates and the stock goes down. Its the same rule for EVERY company. 

Tim Cook is blaming everyone here for the disappointing sales...because you are waiting for the iPhone 5. Could it be that the people who are witing for the new iPhone are doing so because the currently available iPhone is not really competitive? It's not 4G...big problem. The screen is small...maybe not quite as big a problem, but a problem nonetheless. Jonny Ive keeps focusing on making the device smaller when he should be focusing on making it more functional and with better battery life which is compromised by continually shrinking the iPhone. The company makes is so difficult to handle that a case of some sort is highly desirable to keep it from slipping from the hand to an almost certain doom on the floor below.

Your point is well taken that Apple, by any measure, is still selling a lot of iPhones, but the sales have not met projections and the question is why. The company must certainly be hoping that the lost sales will be made up by pent up demand when the new iPhone is released, but what if the new iPhone is not what people are expecting and they either continue to use their existing iPhones or even move to another platform? (Apple's model for the iPhone is to get the customer on board and benefit from their reluctance to change once they become familiar with the phone and purchase apps that probably won't transfer to another phone system.

There is a lot riding on this release. If the sales do not meet expectations, as you identify, there will be difficulty for the company's stock and hard questions about the company's management.

Right now, expensive cell phones, whether made by Apple or someone else are probably facing consumer resistance as a sign of the times. Consumers are stretching the purchasing cycles of many products. It is bound to affect this market as well. It has already affect much of the rest of the tech/IT market.

I just hope Tim backs away from attacking the customer base again. He just needs to focus on bringing products worth purchasing to market in a timely fashion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

 

On the other hand, there are signs in the last year or two that suggest a trend in the direction of form-over-function:

 

They dumped compatibility with world-wide industry standards in RAM and storage devices in order to make their new computer one eighth of an inch thinner. Admirable goal in the abstract, questionable gain vs. cost in practical terms.

 

They have a hard-on for high pixel density displays 'cause they're cool.  Not much *real* benefit to users, but they *are* better so why not, right?  Except that since those don't exist in a 17" version Apple just stopped offering a portable with a 17" display.  That has a DETRIMENTAL affect on users for whom screen area is the primary priority.

 

The iPhone has a talking lady built-in, but NOT turn-by-turn navigation or an NFC payment system. The former improves interaction but doesn't provide any capability that doesn't exist without the talking lady.  The latter are examples of things with less gee-quiz factor but more actual benefit to the user (and are present in EVERY competitor's products).

 

I think we ARE seeing several examples of Apple making "kewl" more important than "kapable."

 

 

There is a lot more benefit from anti-glare screens than from high pizel density displays. Turn-by-turn navigation is a big deal. It can potentially do away with the need for a second GPS device which means that the iPhone would have greater value to many customers both in terms of making a difference in a decision to purchase a new phone instead of replacing the out of date GPS device and in terms of size/weight that they carry around rather than unsuccessfully trying to incorporate more capability into an increasingly undersized form factor.

I certainly agree that Apple needs to concentrate more on functionality/capability than whether they can shrink the phone yet again. Jonny Ive is so fixated on artificial design that the function of the product has been compromised for a very long time. I would not be offended if Tim made him design an enclosure to fit products designed to be functional rather than trying to cram a product into a too small enclosure. Ive is responsible for most of the thermal problems of Apple products because of his approach.

The other problem with the iPhone is that the company has been missing expected delivery dates for some time now. They seem unable to bring a product to market in the same cycle as the competition which means that the competition is frequently ahead in bringing newer technology and functionality to market.

I second your observation that "kewl" has become more important than "kapable". This needs to change.

You know that Ive would rather be pushed out the door rather than yield to Cook's engineering and supply demand, right? His ego is even bigger than Job's.

Originally Posted by Fairthrope 
His ego is even bigger than Job's.

Work with him often, do you?

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Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

Work with him often, do you?

Didn't you watch how Ive went about on stage? He looked just like Jobs before the exile, which is not a good thing.

Jobs the Boy went into exile, and Jobs the Man came back, and it was all for the better. Jonathan Ive hasn't.

Any delay to iPhone 5, my speculation is that Ive and Cook are locking horns about what looks cool and what is practical, and Forstal somehow failed to make the peace between two men. If there is no iPhone 5 by this Christmas, I am going to go with that hypothesis for another six month. So what is your theory should there be a delay?

Originally Posted by Fairthrope 
Didn't you watch how Ive went about on stage? He looked just like Jobs before the exile, which is not a good thing.

Jonathan Ive has never stood on stage at any Apple event.

Sixth. iPhone. Come on. And of course it will come out this fall. My theory is that there won't be a delay because that's nonsense.

Given a choice between who to "vote off the mothership", I would vote for Ive to go, but Cook needs to quit blaming the customer for sales which are lower than expected. The message he should be receiving is that the current offerings are not what the customer wants when viewed from their perspective. The economy is obviously a factor in any purchase decision and manufacturers must assure that their products have value (in this case features and capabilities) to convince the customer to part with their cash. The iPhone 4s is a stale product.

Hubris is a very different matter from ego. Apple are very close to stepping over the line, believing that anything they ship should be the subject of idolatry and unquestioning acceptance (purchase). I have my doubts about the ability of the company to recognize and accept when they may miss the mark on a product and even greater doubts about the company's ability to retrench and respond rapidly. That is a situation where a serious misstep can result in an extreme adjustment to stock pricing and consumer confidence in the company.

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Originally Posted by Slurpy 

Sorry, thats garbage. Apple has proven itself immune to the global economy, over and over again. The current iPhone is 8 months old, 26 million a quarter is pretty damn impressive in that sense, and they smashed their iPad records. Yes, we will see insane numbers, more insane then we've ever seen during the quarter of the next iPhone launch. Look at what the 4S did, being a device physically identical to the 4S, and deemed a massive dissapointment by the tech community. The next iPhone will be completely redesigned, and will fuel an unheard of amount of sales, regardless of the state of the economy. 

We can't have our cake and eat it here too. You note they have previously been immune yet here they are blaming their results on that to which they had always previously been immune. Apple has basically said their sales are no longer immune to the state of the world economy. That is a huge admission even if their results are pretty great.

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Originally Posted by Rogifan 

Outside of retina display why does the design need to change? What's wrong with the current design except that you might be bored with it? What does it have to do with how you use the device?

The solution is the problem here. I love my iPhone 4s. It is an amazing device with the loudest speakerphone, ear piece volume, and great speed, camera, etc. I LOVE the size of it and the battery life has been just fine for me. The problem is that AT&T were letting people upgrade yearly before or perhaps even at 16-20 months. Now that isn't allowed and fees are being charged on top of the longer cycle. Apple has fared much worse in markets where purchases are not subsidized like they are in the U.S. Plus the low hanging fruit is gone as you note with regard to design or features. There aren't many "must have" features left to find or add. My phone already shoots 1080p. It is already ridiculously thin. Aside from a week of battery life, what else do I really need?

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Originally Posted by SpamSandwich 

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Originally Posted by Rogifan 


Yep I think broader economic issues caused the bad quarter moreso than people fleeing iPhone for Samsung. Dow was down over 100 points today, there's talk about another recession coming. Maybe some on wall street thought Apple was immune to all of that. They're finding out now it's not.

 

I think talk about a new extended recession in the US may be true. After the election, expect another terrible crash in the market no matter who is elected. If Obama, it will crash because quantitative easing will end and Obama will be a lame duck president. If Romney is elected, it will collapse because the criminals in charge now will face being replaced with a whole new gang of criminals.

Well I think you seem to be smart enough to realize it is a world-wide criminal problem and it appears almost no government is immune as well.

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Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

Unless Germany reintroduces the mark, we can safely say that Apple is going to continue its rise and financial success. We have proof of this, given that they posted record quarters every single quarter during the recent recession.

See above: You can't be immune and assign blame at the same time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

What I find frustrating as someone who has invested in an Apple ecosystem is the WAIT for features others seem to bring to market so much more quickly and easily.  I'm not excited that a future iPhone may finally have 4G capability, I'm embarrassed that there STILL isn't one NOW when EVERY competitor not only already offers that, but has for a long time now.  Even *rumoured* products fall short of features other suppliers already include, like near-field RF.

 

What the market is responding to may well be the paradigm shift that has Apple playing catch-up instead of leading.  Has ANYONE (besides fanboys) EVER actually bought an Apple product because it had a "Retina" display?  Would the time, money and attention spent pursuing that be better spent on features that make a more significant contribution to the user experience than "Oh yes, I suppose that *does* look pretty, doesn't it?"

First and foremost, I love my retina display on my phone. LTE is seriously not that big a deal. Most people use a little over half a gig of data a month and they do it with email, Facebook updates, etc. LTE is a big push by the networks because the faster pipes let them have more capacity and it costs them a tenth of what 3g does. Since U.S. carriers are largely limiting data, 4G becomes even less of need or concern. HSDPA 14.4 Mbps, that doesn't sound slow to me.

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Originally Posted by Godzilla 

 Oh yes it does, where it matter most. Market Share is a bragging act. PROFITS matter, and Apple has it so far ahead of Google/Android, it's a different universe. Apple's cycles are clean and precise, one phone that defines that segment of the brand. I'm not opposed to them branching into more phone/s, but I think their approach now is brilliant, and tactful. They make more MONEY because they put all their efforts into one amazing phone, and due to that, it stays relevant and even dominating for much longer than its competitors offerings. Not to mention, builds up great hype, etc.

Again we can't have our cake and eat it too. If Apple is stating in their earnings report that their release cycles are so clean and precise that people won't buy their current products because they anticipate a new one, then that can be a problem.

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Originally Posted by AdyB 

I saw this economic briefing this morning:

 

"The markets are extremely anxious that Spain will need a full bailout and as the 4th largest economy in the Euro Zone that would have significant ramifications. Over in Greece meanwhile, and wait for this, are you sitting down?... it is looking likely that they will fall short of their bailout terms. Yesterday saw German coalition members calling for Greece to exit stating that it could recover and regain competitiveness more quickly outside the EuroZone (and we don’t want to hand over any more money!) Overnight Japan posted falling export numbers recording its’ first decline in 4 months reflecting the European crisis, a slowdown in China and a drop in domestic demand. Japan’s economy is the world’s 3rd largest behind that of the US and China. It is still due to out-perform most other developed countries this year, but domestic appetite is a key factor in this and so future activity will be monitored closely."

 

Against this backdrop, is it that bad a performance?

This isn't a bad performance at all. It has to be viewed in the context of the broader market and also in regard to other economic variables. The last time Apple didn't hit analyst expectations was 2003. That means there was a gigantic market meltdown within the U.S. and Apple simply grew past it. They also grew much faster than the market. If Apple is showing growth only equal to the market or has slowed sales due to economic factors, that is a change and must be treated as new, not part of that past.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

If they stopped selling all products today, Apple has enough cash to run them for a decade.

 

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 
 

And that's incredible, isn't it? Is there any other company (or government! or HOUSEHOLD!) on the planet that could do that?

I've read some crazy theories on Apple, but this one has got to be one of the big winners. It's very much highly partly Jony's designs that have made Apple, Apple.

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Originally Posted by Godzilla 

 

I've read some crazy theories on Apple, but this one has got to be one of the big winners. It's very much highly partly Jony's designs that have made Apple, Apple.

 But when Jobs was there, he was able to rein in Ive so the whole package; use and functions, don't get compromised by design. Ive pushed it, Jobs pulled back until the balance was struck. This way they can have enough of everything. Obviously Cook and Forstal have trouble reeling in this mad genius.

How did Jobs made Jonathan Ive listened and agreed with him? Did Forstal know how to do that?

The same way with Disney's Michael Eisner I think. Without Frank Wells to keep his feet on the ground, Eisner ran amok and Disney Animation went downhill from there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Godzilla 

 

I've read some crazy theories on Apple, but this one has got to be one of the big winners. It's very much highly partly Jony's designs that have made Apple, Apple.

You ignore the obvious fact that Ive's design characteristic is poor thermal design. If you don't care anything at all about functionality, they are just fine. Go stick your head in the sand and ignore reality. All he does is design packages that overheat.

Originally Posted by RBR 
You ignore the obvious fact that Ive's design characteristic is poor thermal design. If you don't care anything at all about functionality, they are just fine. Go stick your head in the sand and ignore reality. All he does is design packages that overheat.

Except that's wrong on the face of it.