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Valve's Gabe Newell predicts Windows 8 will be a 'catastrophe'

post #1 of 159
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The co-founder of hit game maker Valve believes that Microsoft's forthcoming Windows 8 operating system will spell disaster PC makers, some of which he believes will exit the market altogether.

Speaking at the Casual Connect videogame conference in Seattle, Wash., Valve Managing Director Gabe Newell said his company is interested in bringing its Steam digital storefront to Linux as a way of hedging its bets against a potential failure of Windows 8, according to All Things D.

"I think Windows 8 is a catastrophe for everyone in the PC space," Newell said. "I think we'll lose some of the top-tier PC OEMs, who will exit the market. I think margins will be destroyed for a bunch of people. If that's true, then it will be good to have alternatives to hedge against that eventually."

When Windows 8 launches on October 26, it will signal a major change in strategy for Microsoft, which will be building its own touchscreen tablets, called "Surface," to compete with Microsoft's own third-party vendors in the market. Some have also speculated that Microsoft's strategy of offering both ARM-based tablets and traditional computers running Windows 8 will confuse and frustrate consumers, along with the operating system's new Metro user interface.

Windows 8
The new Metro user interface in Microsoft's Windows 8.


Valve also expanded its reach beyond Windows in 2010 when it brought its Steam storefront, as well as some of its most popular games such as "Portal" and "Team Fortress 2," to Apple's OS X. Going forward, Valve plans to simultaneously release all of its games on both Mac and PC, including "Counter-Strike: Global Offensive," which is set to launch on August 21.

While Valve has embraced the Mac, Newell's comments this week at Casual Connect suggest he isn't a fan of Apple's less open platform strategies. He said Valve wouldn't exist today without open platforms that encourage innovation.

"There's a strong temptation to close the platform, because they look at what they can accomplish when they limit the competitors' access to the platform, and they say, 'That's really exciting,'" Newell said. "We are looking at the platform and saying, 'We've been a free rider, and we've been able to benefit from everything that went into PCs and the Internet, and we have to continue to figure out how there will be open platforms.'"

Newell also revealed he isn't sold on the long-term viability of touchscreen-driven platforms like Apple's iPhone and iPad. He called touchscreen interfaces a "short-term" trend that will be "stable for 10 years."

In what he called a future "post-touch" era, Newell said he believes users will wear bands on their wrists that will enable complex gesture-based controls on future devices.

"You'll be doing something with your hands, which are really expressive," Newell said.
post #2 of 159

Everything that Microsoft has changed in Windows 8 is wrong.


Someone correct me. I don't want to be right about that, but I can't seem to remember anything I preferred over earlier versions.

post #3 of 159

 

 

I've heard that comment a number of times from different sources but nobody ever goes on to say why it's so bad. Not sure if it's just MS bashing or if Metro really is that bad. Perhaps someone would care to explain what's wrong with the Metro interface. I use Mac and PC with my work so I'm genuinely interested to know.

 

It's a shame there isn't a 15" iPad or a Mac laptop for £500 - Apple would probably clean up and double their market share if Metro is so bad. 


Edited by Shaun, UK - 7/26/12 at 9:17am
post #4 of 159

Win 8 may very well be doomed, but this guy has an agenda. 

 

He's mostly ticked because app stores that come with the OS compete with Steam. 

 

The notion that Steam is "open" is laughable. It's a DRM'd app store, just like Apple's or Microsoft's. 

post #5 of 159

This is the same guy that said this about Apple last year:

 

"They build a shiny sparkling thing that attracts users and then they control people's access to those things."

post #6 of 159

Valve's Gabe Newell predicts Windows 8 will be a 'catastrophe'

 

Well is sure as clown-vomit *looks* like one . . .

post #7 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazda 3s View Post

This is the same guy that said this about Apple last year:

 

"They build a shiny sparkling thing that attracts users and then they control people's access to those things."

 

Which is essentially true. 

 

But folks like it that way. And the also-rans are copying it (or having a helluva time trying.)    


Edited by Quadra 610 - 7/26/12 at 9:32am
post #8 of 159

The biggest issue with Windows 8 is how Ballmer and company crudely bolted on the Metro UI and desktop users have to jump through hoops to get around it.  It would be like if Apple updated OS X to show the iOS like Launchpad on boot up and you had to run a Finder app to get the normal desktop back.  Having used Win 8 for months, it's still very annoying.   

post #9 of 159

I'm quite interested to see how Windows 8 does as well. I haven't used a WP7 phone but it looks like MS has some interesting ideas going on, and with Windows 8, it looks like they're trying to change the basic way we interact with a PCs.

 

One thing that does bother me a lot about the Metro interface on WP7 phones is the giant waste of space down the right side beside the tiles that just has an arrow on top to show there's more to see. If I have a phone with a large display, I want to make the most of it, and using so much of it as either empty space of the edge of the following tiles seems like such a huge waste. Also, some screens have a Zune like feel where many of the options are in plain text. It might look good, but you still have to read what's there instead of identifying options quickly just by their colours. Regardless, I'm more and more tempted to get my hands on one to see how well it all work

post #10 of 159

Windows 8 is the best version of Windows ever. It torches Windows 7. But it's also going to infuriate Microsoft's customers, who cling to legacy for dear life. Look what happened to Vista. Vista was streets ahead of XP, but it was fundamentally different because it was by far a more modern OS than the one it was replacing. And so, despite its improvements, the marketplace hated it, because Windows customers are particularly resentful of change. It's entirely conceivable Windows 8 is too radical for its market.

 

Now, as for Gabe Newell's idea that we will wear bands on our hands and use gestures. No. No no no no no. That is just hilarious. Firstly, people do not want to wear computers (This, incidentally, is also one of many reasons Google Glass will fail catastrophically). Secondly, gestures are cumbersome, inaccurate and inefficient. You'd think someone who spent his life making PC games which relied on the precision, accuracy and efficient of the mouse would know that.

 

But I guess the crazed dreams of Kinect's engineers have claimed another victim.

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post #11 of 159
I disagree with Gabe. Microsoft spewed forth Windows Vista on the world, and no major PC OEMs left the Windows PC market for goddamned Linux. Microsoft's customers will simpy cling tenaciously to their Windows 7 copies, the way they wouldn't leave Windows XP back when Vista was released. My belief is that Microsoft will cave and extend the life of Windows 7 well into the 8 era. That's more likely to happen than Dell and HP trying to sell Linux PCs.

As for the rest of Newell's predictions about Jetsons wristbands and stuff... Really?

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post #12 of 159

I used Windows 8 CP exclusively for a week, just to see how bad it is.

 

Verdict: I liked it.  While Metro apps are silly on anything other than a tablet, the desktop is still there and just as usable as before.  I found I actually prefer the start screen over the start menu.  It's much more customizable and acts as a proper, fast launcher.  I don't think it will win over many Apple users, but nor do I think it will make Windows users jump ship in droves.

 

It does have features other than Metro: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Features_new_to_Windows_8

post #13 of 159

Here's my prediction for the Windows 8 Launch 

 

1.  Windows 8 is released for sale and the tech pundits will hail Microsoft for evolving the OS, deep mobile integration, etc. 

 

2.  Consumers and Enterprise won't listen to the tech pundits, and will scrupulously avoid the Win 8 Metro UI mess.

 

3.  Realizing that the shilling for Microsoft isn't paying off and to save face, the tech pundits will do an 180 and lambast Ballmer for laying a Windows Vista egg.

post #14 of 159

In response to Newell's comments I'd like to quote Paul Thurrott's twitter comment this morning: "You know what else is a "catastrophe," Gabe? Your inability to finish Half-Life 2 Episode 3. Just a thought."

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post

I'm quite interested to see how Windows 8 does as well. I haven't used a WP7 phone but it looks like MS has some interesting ideas going on, and with Windows 8, it looks like they're trying to change the basic way we interact with a PCs.

 

One thing that does bother me a lot about the Metro interface on WP7 phones is the giant waste of space down the right side beside the tiles that just has an arrow on top to show there's more to see. If I have a phone with a large display, I want to make the most of it, and using so much of it as either empty space of the edge of the following tiles seems like such a huge waste. Also, some screens have a Zune like feel where many of the options are in plain text. It might look good, but you still have to read what's there instead of identifying options quickly just by their colours. Regardless, I'm more and more tempted to get my hands on one to see how well it all work


Windows Phone 8 (and the update to current phones Windows Phone 7.8) will not have the gulf on the right side.  It will also include more customizable tile sizes too.

 

Side Note:  I'm loving ML so far on my Mid 2009 White MacBook.  I'm also running the Windows 8 on my main desktop.  Super pumped to get the final version installed.

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post #15 of 159

Come on Microsoft ! Why don't you invent the post-iPad era ? There is always room for innovation, you know ... (but you have to admit, you can survive without a keyboard ..( in iPad era (as well as post-iPad era ...))

post #16 of 159

Ahem...

 
 
Personally, I'm pulling for Microsoft 8 to be successful. Apple needs competition. It didn't create the iPhone or iPad because it had nothing better to do.

 

And per the MSFT haters... need I remind you guys... one of MSFT's biggest fans, is the OTHER Steve... Steve Wozniak.
 

 

Per the Huffington Post July 10, 2012...
 

These new products are so visually appealing, Wozniak joked, it's as though "Steve Jobs was reincarnated at Microsoft."



Wozniak, who has noted his admiration for the Windows Phone operating system before, likes the Jobs-esque artistic vision coming out of Microsoft, marveling at what he perceives as a sharp turnaround in quality:

"I'm glad that Microsoft is starting to show that maybe they're a different company than before," he said. "I don't remember this sort of thing happening in a long, long time from Microsoft."

post #17 of 159

Do not misinterpret him. By catastrophe he means what Microsoft is going to do to with Steam if they force all apps to be distributed via Windows Market Place.

post #18 of 159

I think Windows 8 has some “disaster” written on it AND some awesome innovation (Metro) as well. Even if it’s a partial flop, I hope it evolves into great things.

 

Much of the disaster, for users, is in Microsoft STILL trying to make a tablet and a Windows PC be the same thing. But Newell is talking more about the disaster it may be for (some) Microsoft partners.

 

That said, Newell is spouting a lot of things in defense of his own CLOSED platform :p (A platform I like—as I do the App Store!)

 

He’s likely worried that Microsoft might shut down Steam. But I don’t even see Apple doing that (Gatekeeper in Lion is a big step towards showing they intend to keep non-App Store apps alive). Much less Microsoft. But you never know, I suppose.

post #19 of 159
Total hogwash Gabe!

After the immediate success of the Metro interface on the smartphone, Microsoft will continue to build upon the success of Metro by shoving it down Windows 8 users throats.
This ethos continues on from the success of forcing people into Internet Explorer, Windows Media Player and the worldwide popular Comic Sans MS font.
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post #20 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazda 3s View Post

This is the same guy that said this about Apple last year:

"They build a shiny sparkling thing that attracts users and then they control people's access to those things."

Gabe should grow a full beard, stop bathing, pick dead skin off his feet and eat it, then call himself Richard Stallman II, king of the Slashdotters.

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post #21 of 159

My prediction is that it won't matter what MS does with 8.  They'll get new customers as well as some adopters from older systems, but for enterprise customers, it will be business as usual given they will resist full scale implementation of a new OS that could and probably will negatively impact their user base.  As long as MS continues to support older os's, you'll have a great number of users who will not upgrade/update until their whole system requires it.

 

And for every iPad that gets implemented into enterprise, MS loses at least a little bit of their brand value.  I don't ever see Apple getting the same volume of enterprise acceptance as the back-end support, both in-house IT and 3rd party IT have far too much invested in their own businesses/lives to give up on a system that inherently needs them.   I used to work for a company that had two distinct systems, one was all Apple for the graphics / web design team and the other was for the business operations and manufacturing side.  The only thing the IT guys did for the Mac side was the occasional hd replaced, as most things, including system and data backup was setup and managed by the design team.  I'm not saying that they would be without jobs if the company were using all Macs, but they definitely kept themselves really busy fixing pc's and managing software for the MS based system they were using (Great Plains).

 

Heck the design team isn't even using the most up to date Macs - they've still got G4's and a few G5's, plus pre-unibody Pro's doing almost all the work - while I don't think the business side has laptops or desktops that are any older than from 2008 as they've needed a much faster replacement cycle.  As the saying goes, you get what you pay for...  

post #22 of 159

It's pretty comical the immediate hate generated for Windows 8. People are resistant to change.

 

Let's glaze over all of the under-the-hood improvements and changes, and let's judge Windows 8 on Metro alone. Further, let's forget that Windows 8 will still work just fine in the desktop environment, and that Metro is absolutely, completely Keyboard/Mouse compatible--and in fact, was designed with it's use in mind as well as touch. 

 

Most people never touch most of the items in the Start menu. You click Start, you navigate to a few standard shortcuts, and that's it. For the most part, Start is cluttered with items you don't use.

 

Metro eliminates all of that mess, and makes items that you use immediately available. You can still get to it the same way (Windows Key), you can still bring items up with keyboard shortcuts--it's based on the same mechanisms that the current Start menu works, it simply removes the unused items, and creates a touch-orientated design.

post #23 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Valve's Gabe Newell predicts Windows 8 will be a 'catastrophe'




Well is sure as clown-vomit *looks* like one . . .

Here is a pic of the head designer for Windows 8 hard at work.

clown_vomit_01.jpg


But seriously, there are some great things MS has done with Win8. Unfortunately very few of them are things the customer will notice and so much of the horrific and confusing decisions they will notice. They need a more fluid transition from the Win7 Ui to Win8. I think we could see a larger exodus than we did with Win Vista to Macs and Apple will be remiss if they don't have a new Mac campaign on the ready.

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post #24 of 159

Pretty cool how people in this forum are actually pointing out that Newell is far from a disinterested party in this.

 

Also yes the new WP8 start screen eliminates the black bar of negative space on the side. Also opens up to 3 resolutions (fear not devs, it's only 2 aspect ratios, not the android free for all)

post #25 of 159

Last year there was a demonstration of the new Windows 8 by one of their engineers. It looked good. Everything was working fine. He did a desktop and touch screen demonstration. Has something changed since then? The demo didn't show programs opening and functioning. It just showed how easy it was to navigate around the computer.

 

What I want to see in any Microsoft computer demonstration is how long it takes for things to open and how well they function when people input information and need to change information. Opening and closing screens is important and switching between processes or programs is too. I have found that doing such things takes a lot of time with Windows. That ruins the computing experience for me. My 2008 2.4 GHz Core 2 Duo Mac Book is getting slow these days and it is bugging me. My 2009 HP with Linux is still very snappy with a slower single core processor by AMD.

 

Maybe the game manufactures should invest more into the Linux platform. I wonder why this guy Newell thinks some big name OEMs will quit the PC business. Maybe they'll quit the Windows OS partnerships but not the computer manufacturing business. Asus makes things with Android and so does Samsung. Samsung also makes the Chromebook for Google. It uses a Linux based OS. Dell and HP have flirted with Linux in the past. After the Surface announcement it would be very interesting if these companies had a meeting and agreed to offer everything they make with Linux. If they all agreed to do it then the general public would accept it. If that happened all of the major software manufacturers would begin developing for Linux too.
 

post #26 of 159

Well.... now there's an example of either a plant or a naive fanboi. Vista was another flop like Win ME. Vista didn't catch on because it was a terrible buggy software design... a rush to market when they should've waited to complete what became Windows 7. Windows 8 torches Win 7 ?!? Really ?!? Have you looked at what it truly is? It's just another bloated LAYER on top of an existing system... It's lipstick on a pig...

Businesses and Professionals I've spoke with are already stocking up on Win 7 licenses.

post #27 of 159

I agree that Windows 8 will be a disaster, but I don't see people moving to Linux. They'll just stick with Windows 7 until Microsoft comes out with something that they like better. Its like Windows Vista. People just won't buy it if they don't like  it. OEMs should be able to continue bundling Windows 7 in the meantime.

 

As for what's wrong. I've tried Windows 8 and it is really hard to find anything. It also  won't work with a lot of existing software. That's just crazy. I've never understood why Microsoft keeps trying to reinvent the wheel when they have such a dominant market share. They should try to maintain continuity from one system (and one version of Office) to another so that people aren't put off by an unfamiliar interface.

 
 
post #28 of 159

It is hard to believe how people can use such an anti-intuitive, awkward and malware-filled operating system as Windows is. Windows is basically maintained by inertia and ignorance. The day the Mac reaches 20% market share, Windows will be history in three years.

post #29 of 159
Originally Posted by zunx View Post
The day the Mac reaches 20% market share, Windows will be history in three years.


You talking worldwide? It's something like 15% in the US and Switzerland right now, but good luck getting that recognized… 

post #30 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by bryand View Post

I agree that Windows 8 will be a disaster, but I don't see people moving to Linux. They'll just stick with Windows 7 until Microsoft comes out with something that they like better. Its like Windows Vista. People just won't buy it if they don't like  it. OEMs should be able to continue bundling Windows 7 in the meantime.

As for what's wrong. I've tried Windows 8 and it is really hard to find anything. It also  won't work with a lot of existing software. That's just crazy. I've never understood why Microsoft keeps trying to reinvent the wheel when they have such a dominant market share. They should try to maintain continuity from one system (and one version of Office) to another so that people aren't put off by an unfamiliar interface.

The biggest change I see happening is people buying an iPad for the next tech purchase and just keeping their current WinPC for as long as possible. The problem with that is if they like the iPad they might get a Mac when the time is right.

For MS's sake I hope the Surface works out for them but that isn't looking good either since they couldn't decide on what to focus on.
Edited by SolipsismX - 7/26/12 at 10:38am

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post #31 of 159

It's already happening. Microsoft makes a promise that they will maintain Windows 7 until 2020. So, they either know a great many Windows 7 users won't switch, or they are preparing if Windows 8 fails miserably at least they will have Windows 7 to hang onto and to buy them some time to figure what to do with the upcoming Windows 9. Unfortunately, by promising that WIndows 7 will be maintained for that long, it will be less incentive for WIndows 7 users to switch quickly even with the lowly price tag of USD 19.99 for an upgrade.  

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

I disagree with Gabe. Microsoft spewed forth Windows Vista on the world, and no major PC OEMs left the Windows PC market for goddamned Linux. Microsoft's customers will simpy cling tenaciously to their Windows 7 copies, the way they wouldn't leave Windows XP back when Vista was released. My belief is that Microsoft will cave and extend the life of Windows 7 well into the 8 era. That's more likely to happen than Dell and HP trying to sell Linux PCs.
As for the rest of Newell's predictions about Jetsons wristbands and stuff... Really?
post #32 of 159

It sounds like a nice idea having the phone and desktop run the same OS. It will be interesting to see if MSFT is successful with this. I haven't seen much written about how the 2 interact. It would be nice to hear about that. But Tim Cook's line about the toaster and the refrigerator keeps bouncing around my head and I think this will be a problem for MSFT. I see some say that they like Metro but I see more saying that they don't. Some people are being honest and some have an axe to grind. This Newell guy is Steamed that MSFT is going to hurt his business so I take it what he is saying is more business related than anything else so it is hard to take it really seriously. This Metro stuff has been known for a while. If he was really serious about a Linux store, I would imagine that in order to get that up and going he should have something going by now.

 

That said, while I haven't played around with a Windows phone or with Metro, I find the tiles hideous and very distracting in all the presentations and pictures that I have seen. I have no real idea about its functionality since I can't get past the way the screen looks. I can't imagine having to deal with that all day long on a desktop on a larger screen.

post #33 of 159
Quote:
Personally, I'm pulling for Microsoft 8 to be successful. Apple needs competition. It didn't create the iPhone or iPad because it had nothing better to do.

 

And per the MSFT haters... need I remind you guys... one of MSFT's biggest fans, is the OTHER Steve... Steve Wozniak.

It's not a matter of hating Microsoft and shilling for one company or the other.  As for Woz, he was commenting about the design of the Microsoft Surface - we're talking Windows 8 here.  Also, my impression of Woz is that he makes every attempt to avoid being perceived as an Apple shill, and so has a tendency to tout the competition (Android, Microsoft, etc.) while being unevenly critical of Apple.  That's fine but I'm certainly not taking his opinions as objective.  

post #34 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

I've heard that comment a number of times from different sources but nobody ever goes on to say why it's so bad. Not sure if it's just MS bashing or if Metro really is that bad. Perhaps someone would care to explain what's wrong with the Metro interface. I use Mac and PC with my work so I'm genuinely interested to know.

It's a shame there isn't a 15" iPad or a Mac laptop for £500 - Apple would probably clean up and double their market share if Metro is so bad. 

We've discussed examples in other threads. One is having the Start menu button in the lower left be the central way to access the computer for 17 years, then completely getting rid of it for no apparent reason.

I think the tile management is clumsy. I've found no way to add control panel to the regular set of tiles. Giving Bing services prominent real estate is annoying.

Less germane to most users, but in a virtualized window, it's very difficult to get the right hand control popout to work consistently. One out of five times is about my record.
post #35 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

He's mostly ticked because app stores that come with the OS compete with Steam. 

 

 

That is exactly what it is. And shame on the media that just spews out his quotes without calling him out on it.

 

Personally, I don't like what I have seen in Windows 8 and think I will be sticking with Windows 7 as long as practically possible. That being said Gabe is full of BS and is just trying to protect his own enormous ass.

 

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post #36 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jensonb View Post

Windows 8 is the best version of Windows ever. It torches Windows 7. But it's also going to infuriate Microsoft's customers, who cling to legacy for dear life. Look what happened to Vista. Vista was streets ahead of XP, but it was fundamentally different because it was by far a more modern OS than the one it was replacing. And so, despite its improvements, the marketplace hated it, because Windows customers are particularly resentful of change. It's entirely conceivable Windows 8 is too radical for its market.

 

...

 

This is lunatic stuff even for a troll.  

 

- Vista wasn't bad it just got bad PR?  Give me a break.  Everyone else in the tech industry says different than you.  

- Windows 8 (the desktop part) is exactly the same as Windows 7 so saying it "torches" Windows 7 is a ridiculous thing to say.  

 

Also, your base thesis of people being resistant to change makes no sense when one considers that people are dropping Windows in droves and moving to Macs, yet Macs are far more different than the move from Windows X to Windows Y.  

post #37 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post
"I think Windows 8 is a catastrophe for everyone in the PC space," Newell said.

 

I doubt that Windows 8 will be a catastrophe for everyone in the PC space.  It will only be a catastrophe for everyone if Windows 8 is successful, and disrupts the old-school Windows XP/Vista/7 gravy train.  And only if Surface really does disrupt the legacy Wintel PC model.  Only then will we see the mess that Newell predicts.

 

On the other hand, I do expect Windows 8 to be a catastrophe, but only for Microsoft itself.  The average consumer won't react well to the totally different Metro UI.  It's not the same as starting from scratch and releasing a game-changer in a niche market like smartphones were.  Back in 2007, only geeks used smartphones.  iOS has made smartphones more accessible to mainstream users, hence its popularity.  But Windows is a victim of its own success.  There are too many users, 99.9% of whom have been trained for generations to believe that "good enough" is all they need.  They'll reject an all-new, totally different UI.  Because familiarity is a feature.  

 

To push out a totally new Windows interface, with zero migration toward that interface in previous releases, is a recipe for disaster.  To the average user, it will feel arbitrary, unnatural, forced.  There won't be any sense of continuity, because it didn't develop organically from anything in Windows 7.  Microsoft support will be flooded with "How do I get my old desktop back?"

 

And building a Microsoft-branded Surface pad can only make one manufacturer happy.  The rest, with whom Microsoft has worked for decades, will all hope that Surface fails.  If it does fail, they will all continue with business (nearly) as usual.  Building PCs, installing Windows 7 on them.  Yes, 7, because there will be that inevitable backlash against the arbitrary newness of Windows 8.  Few consumers will like it.  Almost no corporate IT department will want it.  Not because they want to make their employees happy.  Because their business software runs on XP.  They won't care whether PCs they buy on contract from HP come with Windows 8 pre-installed (or Windows 7 or Vista.)  They'll simply re-image them with XP like they have done since Vista was introduced.  Out with the new, in with the old.  Standard practice in Windows shops around the world.

 

But, if Surface does succeed (in some distorted alternate universe)  it will disrupt the legacy Wintel PC model, and yes, it will be a disaster for the HPs, Dells, and Lenovos of the world.  Because they won't be in the loop any more.  Microsoft's single Surface OEM will make all the money.  The rest will see sales decline, they'll need to ship PCs with Linux installed, and the few corporate IT departments and home hobbyists who actually use Linux will support only a tiny fraction of their former legacy Windows PC sales.

 

Not to worry.  Microsoft will claim millions and millions of Windows 8 sales in the first few months.  They'll crow about Windows 8 market share in enterprise, thanks to those corporate PC sales by HP, Dell, and others, with Windows 8 pre-installed.  But actual usage will be far smaller.  Because corporate IT departments around the world will just re-image all those PCs with XP like always.  And consumers won't like Windows 8 at all.  Only the most rabid Microsoft faithful among them will pay $40 to upgrade.  The rest will get Windows 8 by default when their old PC freezes up and they're forced to buy a new one.  And they'll hate it.

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post #38 of 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

We've discussed examples in other threads. One is having the Start menu button in the lower left be the central way to access the computer for 17 years, then completely getting rid of it for no apparent reason.

I love the counter to your argument that you can still access the Start Button by using hidden keyboard shortcuts. Keyboard shortcuts are great, I use them all the time, but they should never be the primary or only way way you access any GUI element on a desktop OS.

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post #39 of 159
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Originally Posted by zunx View Post

The day the Mac reaches 20% market share, Windows will be history in three years.

Doubt it, although that day is so far in the future no one can possibly know what will happen.

 

Apple is definitely disrupting the consumer space, which wasn't that difficult because consumers don't need very much, but they will have a much more difficult challenge converting the enterprise market to Macs on the desktop or the servers in the back office and they probably aren't even interested in that market. For Apple it is better to stick to the portable and mobile space and leave the enterprise to Windows and Oracle. Best Apple can do is make their stuff compatible with Windows which they have an inconsistent up and down track record on. As bad as Windows is, it is a mainstay in enterprise.

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post #40 of 159
Quote:

Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

 

 ... Personally, I'm pulling for Microsoft 8 to be successful. Apple needs competition. It didn't create the iPhone or iPad because it had nothing better to do. ....
 

 
 

 

OK, I'll bite ... exactly why did Apple create the iPhone? 

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See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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