And then it would be on top of the iPad and then in December and November when no products are typically launched.
I said last year that the Autumn release seems likely because the iPod demand is waning and they need a product for the holiday season. On top of that, Summer isn't a great time to launch most products. That said, if this rumoured $199 iPad Mini was on the table back then — which i don't think will happen at that price — then I would have stated that is an ideal wedge to prop up the drop in iPod sales for the holiday quarter as its cost is low enough.
Every 12 months around the Autumn or switch the iPad and iPhone so that the iPhone is in the Spring, but that would mean two Christmas seasons with the same iPhone unless they brought out a new model that could counter that view in the market. Still, I think that's unlikely.
I also feel that the iPad Mini will not be priced at $199 - that would just kill the iTouch. And killing the iTouch doesn't make sense to me either. Instead, I think they will either price it at $299 or they will drop the iTouch to $149 and price the iPad Mini at $249.