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iPad will keep eating away PC market, despite Windows 8 "excitement"

post #1 of 59
Thread Starter 
Outside of Apple's Macs, sales in the global PC market have remained stagnant for several quarters, with many predicting a rebound after Microsoft ships Windows 8. But that's not going to stop the decline, an analyst with Barclays states.

There's no question that PC sales have continued to shrink, both in the US and globally, but there is some controversy about the cause. In July, IDC reported a 10.6 percent decline in US sales, and a slight decline globally. Gartner's estimates were not much better, indicating a 5.7 percent decline in the US.

Greatly increased sales of Apple's iPad, introduced just two years ago, have clearly replaced millions of PC sales among consumers, education and in the enterprise across a variety of tasks where Apple's easy to manage and use device has replaced conventional desktop PCs, full sized notebooks and economy netbooks.

In particular, the introduction of the iPad appears to have obliterated the once surging market for netbooks, which IDC and Gartner count as PCs.

Canalys, which incorporates iPad and other tablet sales in its PC shipment numbers (unlike IDC and Gartner) reported global growth of 11.7 percent, but most of that came via sales of Apple's iPad, giving the company a company a 19.4 percent combined share of PC sales and 59.6 percent annual growth, more than twice that of second place grower Lenovo.

Canalys


Cannibalization by Apple or waiting for Microsoft?

However, it remains a matter of controversy if the moribund global market for PCs is simply being eaten up by iPad sales or if buyers are instead just waiting for the upcoming release of Windows 8 (or some combination of the two factors).

In the smartphone market, there is similar controversy about why Apple's iPhone sales are slowing, but most agree that consumers are anticipating the upcoming iPhone 5 refresh, rather than buying alternatives. Every annual sales cycle of iPhones has followed the same pattern.

Addressing the optimism around Windows 8, which its supporters hope will both rebound conventional PC sales and power alternative tablet or convertible designs that compete with Apple's Windows-free iPad, Barclay's analyst Ben Reitzes wrote that the Windows 8 launch will have limited impact.

"We continue to believe," Reitzes stated, "that the rise of smartphones and the iPad are having an adverse impact on the PC market ? in addition to macro [economic] factors.?

Not enough wallet in the world to grow PC market

Channel-filling shipments of new Windows 8 PCs should "improve in September meaningfully on a month-to-month basis into the launch of Windows 8 and new Ultrabooks," Reitzes wrote.

"However, after some short-term 'excitement' we believe the PC market will resume its pattern of deceleration given secular threats from tablets and smartphones," he added, "which are cannibalizing traditional PC tasks and creating all new use cases through apps."

Reitzes added, "while PCs certainly don?t go away, we simply do not believe that consumers and corporations have enough 'wallet' to grow the PC market given the need to invest in new gadgets and platforms."

The analyst predicted "stagnant PC unit growth given elongated sales cycles—with industry revenue declines that fund the growth of these new platforms."
post #2 of 59

What Windows 8 "excitement"?

 

All I'm seeing is a lot of worry, hand-wringing, and Vista comparisons.  

post #3 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What Windows 8 "excitement"?

All I'm seeing is a lot of worry, hand-wringing, and Vista comparisons.  

Lots of people have expressed their views of Windows 8:
http://www.fotosearch.com/photos-images/yawning.html
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post #4 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What Windows 8 "excitement"?

 

All I'm seeing is a lot of worry, hand-wringing, and Vista comparisons.  

At least vista has more users than OSx

 

1000

post #5 of 59
Windows 8 clearly moves the 'personal computing' operating system in a new and exciting direction, whereas most competitors are still patching 10 year+ old desktop environments long over-due for replacement.

Sure mobile OS-based devices have their place in the market, but it's rather misguided to belive that ANY current tablet (aka XL media consumption device) is capable of replacing desktop OS-based computers for those using them for more productive purposes.
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post #6 of 59
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Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

At least vista has more users than OSx



I feel sorry for those people. I bought my dell laptop in 2007 when Vista was pretty young. I had my laptop for a little while and said screw this. Put XP on it and it still runs fairly well to the day. When I buy in the future, it'll be a MacBook Pro or a windows 8 PC then I will load someome's windows 7 on it.


Vista is horrible. Period....
Edited by Seankill - 8/7/12 at 11:18am
post #7 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seankill View Post


I feel sorry for those people. I bought my dell laptop in 2007 when Vista was pretty young. I had my laptop for a little while and said screw this. Put XP on it and it still runs fairly well to the day. When I buy in the future, it'll be a MacBook Pro or a windows 8 PC than I will load someome's windows 7 on it.
Vista is horrible. Period....

yeah ran into a vista machine recently. It was bad. Its access restrictions is what set off people.

 

Win7, Win8, Lion are nice. I havent had a chance to load ML yet


Edited by Just_Me - 8/7/12 at 11:41am
post #8 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

At least vista has more users than OSx


Right. Because the story wasn't about how Mac was eating into PC sales, but how iPad was. Just don't count any iPads and Vista market share still looks pretty strong. Return head to sand when done.

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post #9 of 59
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Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... Barclay's analyst Ben Reitzes wrote that the Windows 8 launch will have limited impact.

 

Consumers will upgrade to Windows 8 only because it's pre-installed on the pee cee they buy when their old one freezes up from malware or totally dies.  They have no choice, unless they're among the tiny minority who 1. still have their XP install disc, and 2. have the time and technical knowledge to do the downgrade to XP, and 3. either care enough to downgrade or are forced to downgrade because their older apps break in "XP Mode."

 

Corporate IT departments will upgrade to Windows 8, but only when they buy new pee cees, and they might never even boot them in Windows 8.  They'll re-image their systems with XP.  Because, unlike consumers, Corporate IT does have a choice.  That choice is Window XP, and they'll downgrade.  XP has been "good enough" for nearly 11 years, and it's going to be "good enough" for the next 11 years.

 

All of which will maintain XP's install base among Window users.  Long after Microsoft's official support for XP is terminated in 2014.  From a 2011 CNET article on Windows XP:  

 

 

 

Quote:
survey of IT professionals last November found that half of them were planning to continue to use XP even after the support tap is turned off in 2014.

 

And why would that be?  Because XP is a well-known quantity.  IT professionals know it inside and out.  A whole generation of IT professionals has been trained, for their entire professional career, to deal with systems running XP.  And Vista, 7, and 8 simply don't offer any compelling new features.  Not worth the time, expense, re-training, re-coding, and lost productivity during the transition away from XP.

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post #10 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What Windows 8 "excitement"?

 

All I'm seeing is a lot of worry, hand-wringing, and Vista comparisons.  

Windows 8 is a game changer and tablets running it will succeed...

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post #11 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by daylove22 View Post

Windows 8 is a game changer and tablets running it will succeed...



I want the 600 dollar one so I can run those windows programs I need for engineering. Ohh...wait. Can't do that. Damn

I can get the more costly one? Nah, ultra book or Mac book air would be a much better buy
post #12 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

 

<...>

 

All of which will maintain XP's install base among Window users.  Long after Microsoft's official support for XP is terminated in 2014.  From a 2011 CNET article on Windows XP:  

 

 

 

 

<...>

 

 

I was not aware that Microsoft bothered about supporting their customers....

post #13 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What Windows 8 "excitement"?

 

All I'm seeing is a lot of worry, hand-wringing, and Vista comparisons.  

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

At least vista has more users than OSx

 

1000

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


Right. Because the story wasn't about how Mac was eating into PC sales, but how iPad was. Just don't count any iPads and Vista market share still looks pretty strong. Return head to sand when done.

 

Follow the replies.

post #14 of 59

Care needs to be taken with some of this data.  It is my understanding that Lenovo is doing just fine in China and other developing markets.  Actually not too bad in US and Europe, but big gains are in immature markets.  Immature markets can be seen as non-consuming markets, that is, they have little PC presence and with low price points albeit not as high performance, Lenovo is growing my selling to people who were not being served by traditional PC market.

 

This is a classic bottom up disruption to the PC market [and I suspect others will pile on] and so traditional PC OEMs are being capped by Apple at the high end, fenced by iPads and soon Surfaces at mid end, and cheap PCs at the bottom.  The bottom will move up the food chain consuming moderate prices, enterprise, and eventually premium prices.  

 

How well Apple will manage is way in the future [3-4 years] but Dell and HP are going to get hurt fast in the next 1-2 years.

post #15 of 59
I'm a tech guy and trust me, I see no "excitement" about Windows 8 from anyone I know.
post #16 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHarder View Post

Windows 8 clearly moves the 'personal computing' operating system in a new and exciting direction, whereas most competitors are still patching 10 year+ old desktop environments long over-due for replacement.

!0 + years? More like 44+ years old. UNIX is not going to be replaced anytime soon. The latest version just landed on Mars. Why reinvent the wheel?

 

The only thing new about Windows 8 is the name. Under the hood it is still the same old thing. Patching is what all OSs do. What you start out with determines whether patching it is worthwhile or not. In the case of Windows, in order to truly fix it they would have to break its legacy compatibility and MS is not about to do that because that would be suicide.

 

Apple apparently does not have an issue with breaking compatibility since they do it to some degree with nearly every release.


Edited by mstone - 8/7/12 at 12:27pm

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post #17 of 59
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Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

Windows 8 for tablets might have succeeded if they could run all the software as the regular PC version of Windows 8. I don't follow this story too closely but it is my understanding since this is an ARM chip version it will require modified software to run. That means that Microsoft is banking on people's familiarity and loyalty to Windows to carry over to tablets and smart phones. That strategy might have worked 3 years ago but now it is too late. People are used to iOS and Android and like them. They are far more familiar with Android and iOS than they ever were with Windows and there are hundreds of thousands of apps to choose from. The Windows phone and tablet marketplace for apps is tiny by comparison. 

 

That's assuming you run out and buy an ARM tablet.  All you're saying is that ARM-based Windows tablets have an uphill battle, and I agree with you there.  But if you buy an Intel based tablet or Windows 8 PC, all the software that ran under Windows 7 still runs under Windows 8.

post #18 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seankill View Post


Vista is horrible. Period....

 

i agree that Vista is among the weaker releases of Windows.  that said, however, if you equip the machine with 4GB of memory and disable UAC, the resultant is machine is okay.  with either Chrome, Opera or Firefox as the default web browser, gleaning information from the Internet on a Vista box will be a relatively safe(r) experience.

post #19 of 59

However many users (10, 20, 30%???) could possibly use a smartphone or a tablet for what they do on a computer today.  That alone is going to hurt PC sales.  In the past a PC/Computer was their only choice.

post #20 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

At least vista has more users than OSx

 

1000

 

 

Do you know what's *behind* the numbers? Vastly different forces drive Windows and OS X market share.

 

Universal Licensing drives Windows. Default market-flooding with NO regard for User Experience once the OS leaves Redmond. 

 

It can't be otherwise. Access to OS X costs at least $1000 (unless it's a Mini.)  The best in the industry doesn't come cheap. Apple is proud of their product and charges accordingly. And they're very successful in so doing. 

 

Windows comes installed on everything from the good, to the bad, to the downright ugly. BY DEFAULT. This is *not* a compliment. Microsoft whores out their OS to all takers, meaning that they a long as license fees are paid, they don't care about the User Experience once it falls into OEMs' hands. Hence, the situation with Windows for over 20 years now. Which, in part, is why Microsoft feels compelled to publicly declare how very interested they are in beating little old Apple. 

 

And what happens?  Macs running OS X, with their little market share, utterly and unequivocally BITCH-SLAP all the hardware vendors running Windows, year after year in Consumer Satisfaction reports. It's often not even a close race. Macs set the standard. 

 

Amazing how the 6% can so thoroughly show the 90%+ of the industry exactly how it's done. 


Edited by Quadra 610 - 8/7/12 at 12:34pm
post #21 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHarder View Post

Windows 8 clearly moves the 'personal computing' operating system in a new and exciting direction,

 

Where? Adding a confusing UI layer on top of Windows 7? Is making it look like clown vomit a "new and exciting direction"?


Edited by Quadra 610 - 8/7/12 at 2:00pm
post #22 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHarder View Post

Windows 8 clearly moves the 'personal computing' operating system in a new and exciting direction, whereas most competitors are still patching 10 year+ old desktop environments long over-due for replacement.
Sure mobile OS-based devices have their place in the market, but it's rather misguided to belive that ANY current tablet (aka XL media consumption device) is capable of replacing desktop OS-based computers for those using them for more productive purposes.

Hard to evaluate that claim when there's no agreed definition of "productive purposes" ... other than the one in your head, of course. Is "productive purposes" create MS Office files? Or maybe it's email, web browsing, Twitter, and Facebook. Jobs was right. Some people will need a truck, but most people don't need a truck. It's like defining the success criteria for a non-Windows device being whether it runs Windows software. Of course, now there will be Windows devices that don't even meet that success criteria.

 

As for the desktop environments due for a replacement, the longevity of OS X's core speaks volumes to how well designed it is. Kind of like the automobile. It has evolved, but no one has come up with a better core design in 100 years. And today's version is infinitely better.

post #23 of 59

Windows 8 Excitement? What Windows 8 excitement? The UI looks like it was created by a color blind Mondrian plagiarist! 

ROYGBIV, baby!

post #24 of 59
Quote:

And why would that be?  Because XP is a well-known quantity.  IT professionals know it inside and out.  A whole generation of IT professionals has been trained, for their entire professional career, to deal with systems running XP.  And Vista, 7, and 8 simply don't offer any compelling new features.  Not worth the time, expense, re-training, re-coding, and lost productivity during the transition away from XP.

 

CNET should be ashamed of that question and you distorted it even further.  It seems the media assumes that all companies run out and upgrade every PC every time the latest OS comes out.  I am an IT professional we only transition from XP to Windows 7 when we buy a new computer, and it is usually a smooth transition.  We NEVER upgrade the OS.  It's just too much trouble, but it has nothing to do with the version of Windows.  As long as a PC works and the user is not complaining, we leave it alone.  We don't order new computers or apply upgrades just for the heck of it.  All this survey really shows is that IT press is completely disconnected from the world of IT professionals.  We don't operate the way CNET and others think we do.  Keeping XP around isn't a necessity or sign of frustration with Windows 7, it just means a lack of Microsoft support is not a good enough reason to throw out a perfectly functional computer.  Budgets are tight and there's no reason to waste money if something isn't broke.

post #25 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

Windows 8 Excitement? What Windows 8 excitement? The UI looks like it was created by a color blind Mondrian plagiarist! 

ROYGBIV, baby!

 

 

"Excrement."  Someone's autocorrect acted up.

post #26 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

Windows 8 Excitement? What Windows 8 excitement? The UI looks like it was created by a color blind Mondrian plagiarist! 

ROYGBIV, baby!

 

The UI is the same on desktop mode.  I for one do hate the Metro Windows 8 UI.

You can see the speed difference in Win 8 vs Win 7

 

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406668,00.asp

post #27 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by rednival View Post

 

CNET should be ashamed of that question ...

 

i'm not sure about that because the survey was "carried out by Dimension Consulting on behalf of Dell's Kace systems management appliance business" http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-20021324-92.html 

 

an expanded edit of the article is over at http://www.zdnet.com/half-of-it-pros-plan-to-use-xp-after-support-ends-4010020916/

post #28 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Lots of people have expressed their views of Windows 8:
http://www.fotosearch.com/photos-images/yawning.html

 

I thought these people were looking at Win8 conversion costs and then running off their roof.

 

700

post #29 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by rednival View Post

 

CNET should be ashamed of that question and you distorted it even further.  It seems the media assumes that all companies run out and upgrade every PC every time the latest OS comes out.  I am an IT professional we only transition from XP to Windows 7 when we buy a new computer, and it is usually a smooth transition.  We NEVER upgrade the OS.  It's just too much trouble, but it has nothing to do with the version of Windows.  As long as a PC works and the user is not complaining, we leave it alone.  We don't order new computers or apply upgrades just for the heck of it.  All this survey really shows is that IT press is completely disconnected from the world of IT professionals.  We don't operate the way CNET and others think we do.  Keeping XP around isn't a necessity or sign of frustration with Windows 7, it just means a lack of Microsoft support is not a good enough reason to throw out a perfectly functional computer.  Budgets are tight and there's no reason to waste money if something isn't broke.

QFT. Keep until broke. Replace not upgrade when it is.

post #30 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHarder View Post

Windows 8 clearly moves the 'personal computing' operating system in a new and exciting direction, whereas most competitors are still patching 10 year+ old desktop environments long over-due for replacement.
Sure mobile OS-based devices have their place in the market, but it's rather misguided to belive that ANY current tablet (aka XL media consumption device) is capable of replacing desktop OS-based computers for those using them for more productive purposes.

Define productive.
When on the road using my iPad I can send and receive emails from my customers. I can use my company's online tools and book jobs, send quotes, do scheduling, etc. Very productive and more convienant than hauling out the laptop and tethering it to my phone.

Looking at the capabilitys of the art app that Auto desk released, I think very soon they will have a Autocad app for the iPad. Wouldn't that be productive?

I will admit that I wouldn't to try and work on some humongous Spreadsheet from accounting, but, I have seen Erp software that has been ported to iPad and seemed to work really well. A little bit Differently perhaps, but it was fully functional. Wouldn't that be productive?

I do think that there are functions not well suited for the iPad, but with all the software released and in development, thinking that the iPad isn't productive is a bit naive. If it doesn't work for you, that's fine, but don't assume it's the same for everyone.
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post #31 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

 

Consumers will upgrade to Windows 8 only because it's pre-installed on the pee cee they buy when their old one freezes up from malware or totally dies.  They have no choice, unless they're among the tiny minority who 1. still have their XP install disc, and 2. have the time and technical knowledge to do the downgrade to XP, and 3. either care enough to downgrade or are forced to downgrade because their older apps break in "XP Mode."

 

Corporate IT departments will upgrade to Windows 8, but only when they buy new pee cees, and they might never even boot them in Windows 8.  They'll re-image their systems with XP.  Because, unlike consumers, Corporate IT does have a choice.  That choice is Window XP, and they'll downgrade.  XP has been "good enough" for nearly 11 years, and it's going to be "good enough" for the next 11 years.

 

All of which will maintain XP's install base among Window users.  Long after Microsoft's official support for XP is terminated in 2014.  From a 2011 CNET article on Windows XP:  

 

 

 

 

And why would that be?  Because XP is a well-known quantity.  IT professionals know it inside and out.  A whole generation of IT professionals has been trained, for their entire professional career, to deal with systems running XP.  And Vista, 7, and 8 simply don't offer any compelling new features.  Not worth the time, expense, re-training, re-coding, and lost productivity during the transition away from XP.

 

 

Win8?  no... most orgs still need to upgrade to Win7, and they will only do that when they upgrade their WinServer 2008r2 and are required to by compatibility issues for SW ("I need 2008 to run IIS or SQLServer to run an App that requires that version of middleware").

 

Win8 will not get into the corporate office (those that manage their own configs) until 2014, when there is software that requires Win8.  

 

That's the reason why XP is the still deployed at a majority of sites... desktop SW works, so why upgrade?

 

Since Stability is a higher requirement than security, new features, and definitely new hardware, XP is still critical path for corporations.

 

You will see Win8 move in Gov't and those regulated industries that require 'secure OSes'  (critical here is ASLR) and browsers (you know that IE10 will be Win8 only).

post #32 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

I thought these people were looking at Win8 conversion costs and then running off their roof.

Looks to me like they need more fiber in their diet.
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post #33 of 59
I really like Windows 7 but I am NOT excited for windows 8. It looks like crap, and I think it will be difficult to play games, download content and just pretty much do anything. I will not be upgrading
post #34 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by emacs72 View Post

 

i'm not sure about that because the survey was "carried out by Dimension Consulting on behalf of Dell's Kace systems management appliance business" http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-20021324-92.html

 

an expanded edit of the article is over at http://www.zdnet.com/half-of-it-pros-plan-to-use-xp-after-support-ends-4010020916/

 

What do the answers to the survey actually tell us?  Not what CNET implies.  The implication is that IT professionals don't like Windows 7, but all it says is the majority of IT professionals don't really care if Microsoft will support XP or not...they'll keep using it. I don't believe it is fair to ask a question about Windows XP and draw a conclusion about Windows 7 (or 8).  It's stupid and bad journalism.  

 

Older computers running XP cannot be upgraded to Windows 7.  So the options are to replace a working computer or keep XP.  All this survey says for sure it that given those two options, most IT professionals will keep using the XP  instead of replacing a computer that isn't broke.

 

There are plenty of Macbooks running outdated versions of OSX because Apple no longer supports upgrading those models, but the Mac still works and there's no pressing reason to upgrade.  Most people get that.  If a Windows user does the same thing,  the media spins it as disdain for Windows 7.  The fact is that most people don't upgrade their Mac or their PC unless they have to.  A new OS isn't a good enough reason.

post #35 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timbit View Post

I really like Windows 7 but I am NOT excited for windows 8. It looks like crap, and I think it will be difficult to play games, download content and just pretty much do anything. I will not be upgrading

 

I think there is going to be a backlash.  Apple has worked iOS features into OSX in a way that isn't intrusive.  Microsoft seems to intentionally being intrusive.  They did it with Office 2007 and it worked out because enough people saw the ribbon as an actual improvement, and those that did not learned to live with it.  I cannot see how making a PC with a mouse and keyboard look like a tablet is going to create a better user experience or impress anyone.  

 

I either see an update that allows you to bring back the start menu, or this will ultimately go down as Vista 2.0.  Microsoft should have enough sense to know if they are having to spend so much time in the beta convincing users and partners that the new Metro UI is an improvement, that they're going to have a nightmare on their hands when it is released to the public.  It's stupid.  Make Metro the default, but make it a no brainer to switch back to the old start menu when no touch devices are detected.  If an actual touch screen is present, make it more difficult for them to switch back, throw warnings, do what you can to stop them.  But making everyone use a touch interface so the tiny little fragment of users that actually buy a Windows 8 tablet have a better experience is the dumbest strategy I can think of.

post #36 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

Windows 8 Excitement? What Windows 8 excitement? The UI looks like it was created by a color blind Mondrian plagiarist! 

ROYGBIV, baby!

 

You prefer Apple's hideous skeumorphism? You like the stitching, fake leather, torn paper, comic sans typefaces, and reel to reel tape decks? Oh and the linen, let's not forget about the linen. Apple used to be renowned for their UI design, no more, now they're a joke.

 

Metro is beautiful graphic design, and the live tiles are a great advance.  

 

Despite the superb graphic design work, I can't personally see Win 8 being a success on the desktop, but on tablets and phones it makes perfect sense.

post #37 of 59

A sizeable chunk certainly of the xp share are illegal installs especially in Asia.

post #38 of 59
Originally Posted by stniuk View Post
A sizeable chunk certainly of the xp share are illegal installs especially in Asia.

 

And what was it, there were only… two dozen legal copies of Windows 7 sold at launch in China? Something like that.

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post #39 of 59

Windoze excitement? More excitement watching paint dry, corn grow, or chrome rust.

post #40 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

At least vista has more users than OSx

 

1000

 

So? More people drive pickup trucks then sports cars. Junk outsells quality day in and day out. Besides, you can count on OSX users selecting to use OSX, while a shit-ton of Vista users had no choice of OS.

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