Originally Posted by Gatorguy
A couple of days ago there was a report (IDC?) that claimed Android with nearly 70% of the EU smartphone market with Apple around 17%. Guess which Android licensee is #1? Even in China where Samsung isn't nearly the market presence as in other areas, they still lead Apple 3:1 in smartphone sales according to market research from back in March. The US is really the only large market where Apple has such a large percentage of smartphone sales. Of course most of the profit is probably coming from the US too.
As Soli said, projecting worldwide sales based on just US figures isn't even remotely reliable. The rest of the world isn't sharing the same metrics.
BTW, I think the reason only US sales are being shown is because those are the only ones that apply to this case with regard to possible damages. What Samsung does in the rest of the world isn't part of this suit and thus doesn't matter.
Edit for added linkshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-11/iphone-fails-to-gain-china-share-as-samsung-lead-triples-tech.htmlhttp://finchannel.com/Main_News/Tech/114030_Android_Takes_Majority_Smartphone_Share_Across_Western_Europe/
The problem is that no one knows how many smartphones and tablets Samsung sells, or ships quarterly, as they haven't provided those numbers since early 2011. Occasionally, they will give us numbers for one specific model that has done well, but that's all. All the numbers we see are just guesses, which aren't that useful, because the companies making them can't look to real numbers to enable them to test their methodology.
For example, a quarter ago, we saw numbers from 32 million from iSupply, to 38 million from IDG, and 44.5 million from some small company I had never heard of before. Which number was right? No one knows!
These numbers, even though they are just from the US, and just the infringing models ( almost all of the Android models) are much smaller than what I expected. Only about 10 million a year. That's just about 2.5 million per quarter. How that jibes with these multi tens of millions a quarter, I don't know. The US is about 25% of the worlds market right now, and was a larger portion a couple of years ago. Even if we divided it so that 15 million was from the last year, and 5 million from the year before, that would still just give under 4 million per quarter. Even if we add another 25% to account for the tiny Win Phone sales, and some other non infringing sales, it's still pretty small.
I've always believed that Samsung sells fewer smartphones than anyone realizes. Companies state that they aren't going to give out the numbers any longer because the numbers are poorer, not because they are better. We can see how poor the tablet sales are. Smasung themselves said a few months ago that their tablet sales were doing "poorly".
I think they are very upset about having to release these numbers. It really puts into question those android percentages we read..
The Bloomberg article is screwed up. IPhone marketshare in china last quarter went from just under 9% the quarter before to almost 19%. That's a pretty big jump for a company that's on just about 25% of the phone subscribers on the major networks on China.