This offer could come back to bite Apple.
Firstly, offering 20% discount for cross licensing Samsung's patents means that the value of Samsung's patents is set at approximately $6 to $8 per device - a lot higher than the numbers Apple is offering now.
Secondly, it looks like these numbers could be looked at as being way too high - remember, Samsung prices its devices about 15-20% cheaper than Apple - so a $30 fee could be as high as 7-8% of the device cost.
Thirdly, though Apple's patents are non-SEP, these prices make it look like Motorola's 2.25% for SEP patents are not ALL THAT EXCESSIVE. They are excessive, but not as excessive as they looked at first glance.
Most importantly, I believe it is these prices that make Samsung believe that it has lesser exposure at a legal trial - a jury is unlikely to cost them much more than agreeing to Apple's rates. Even though the numbers for 2010 look low at just $250 million, the numbers for today will be a lot higher - at 50 million phones a year, the cost for Samsung would be $1.5 Billion for just the last 12 months! Apple is just asking for $2.5 Billion today, which means Samsung is not exposed to much risk. I think even if ALL of Samsung's profits from mobiles and tablets are disgorged, it would be less than $30 per device - remember, not all manufacturers have the kind of profit margins Apple has! Samsung is probably making only 10% margins on its devices.
Of course, if they get hit with treble damages for wilful infringement, then the math could be totally different for Samsung. I think Samsung would be smarter to just pay Apple $2.5 Billion today, and get back about $0.5 Billion in their own licensing. At a net cost of $2 Billion, it is quite cheap for Samsung on a per device basis.
Edited by macarena - 8/10/12 at 7:54pm