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Apple's 'iPhone 5 Tsunami' predicted to sell 250M units over life cycle

post #1 of 84
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The next iPhone is expected by one analyst to be one of the most promising device upgrade cycles in Apple's history, driving more than $50 in earnings and as many as 250 million units over its life cycle.

Craig Berger with FBR Capital Markets believes Apple's so-called "iPhone 5" will deliver big results for both consumers and investors in AAPL stock. In fact, he sees the positive effects of a new iPhone launch extending well beyond Apple to its chip manufacturing partners and service providers.

Potential gainers from the launch of the new iPhone include Qualcomm and Fairchild Semiconductor, according to Berger. Both companies were also identified in a report last month from AppleInsider that detailed how Apple's U.S.-based supply chain has been increasing production.

Berger said the upgrade eligibility status of wireless subscribers could have a negative effect on Apple's total market share in the U.S., but he expects that weakness to be offset by the fact that upgrades are more often driven by product launches than eligibility status. He projects that extended upgrade policies could reduce eligible subscribers by 3.9 percent in 2013.

Berger also believes that if China Mobile begins selling Apple's iPhone in early 2013, it would generate 13 million units in the first half of the year. Rumors of a partnership between Apple and China Mobile have persisted for years, but to date the iPhone is still not officially available through the world's largest wireless carrier.

FBR


The "iPhone 5 Tsunami," as Berger called it, is also expected to help the wireless industry as a whole. He believes Apple's next iPhone will "help the industry migrate to a better balance between content provider and end-user revenue sources to support continued investment."

By investing in high-speed 4G LTE networks, throttling high-bandwidth users, and deploying Wi-Fi offloads, some carriers have been able to reduce their costs while application service providers like Apple, Google, Facebook and Netflix have been working closely with operators to improve scalability and minimize their effect on networks.
post #2 of 84

This Tsunami would affect me. My 2nd daughter has been waiting since my 1st daughter got the iPhone 4S ... lol.gif
 

post #3 of 84

These Wall Street crooks never cease to amaze me.

As they talk up the so called iPhone 5 as the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ the stop price increases like a working NASA rocket. LOL!

Oh boy!

post #4 of 84

"$50 in earning" seems conservative.

post #5 of 84

$50 in earnings. That's how you manage expectations!

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post #6 of 84

Definitely a stock-propping piece.

post #7 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

These Wall Street crooks never cease to amaze me.

As they talk up the so called iPhone 5 as the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ the stop price increases like a working NASA rocket. LOL!

Oh boy!

 

With NASDAQ tanking, Apple will become their Hail Mary Pass for several investors and fund managers. If Apple could not pull it off, another round of Wall Street layoffs could be on.

 

Which bank or fund might close the door if Apple could not reach $700 this year?

post #8 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

FBR
.

MSNBC headline:
Apple iPhone sales projected to fall 14% in 4Q13 quarter. /s
Quote:
Originally Posted by malax View Post

"$50 in earning" seems conservative.

I assume they mean 'per share', but gave up expecting good reporting from AI a long time ago.
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post #9 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


MSNBC headline:
Apple iPhone sales projected to fall 14% in 4Q13 quarter.

I remembered you told us Apple is not immune to U.S. recession, and I believe that. But why the recession begins to bite Apple now, this time this year?

post #10 of 84

Forecast - Apple sales of new iPhone will exceed expectations for some and be below expectations for others - given the fact that financial pundits/analysts spout-off about Apple in order to manage their piece of the company.

 

My guess is that Apple will sell lots of iPhones, lots of the purported iPad mini, lots of Apple television sets.  They'll keep selling lots of iPad 3's and their stock price will keep going up.  The fact that they're paying dividends will change how some investors look at them, which may in turn further drive the stock price up.

 

It's not rocket science, betting on Apple's performance, especially compared to some other corporations that don't have the track record Apple does for new hit products and an annual refresh cycle that has shown to keep pushing stock value and brand value up.  I'm sure there will be a day when they launch something that doesn't act as a game changer and in fact has a negative effect on the company, but I don't see that happening any time soon.  If Apple keeps thinking ahead of most other tech companies - thinking about how to make the user experience better in multiple categories, including those we're not thinking about right now, then they'll keep performing and growing.  But that's just my thought and I'm not getting paid by some financial institution to make these types of comments.

post #11 of 84
I don't see a smartphone with 30% bezel getting sold to a quarter of billion people nowadays. Just won't happen.
post #12 of 84

Two please. Right now. Our iPhone 4s feel so sluggish these days.

 

Just gotta figure out whether to leave AT&Thieves for Verizon or not.

 

No sign of AT&T LTE in Philly. That might do it.

post #13 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

MSNBC headline:
Apple iPhone sales projected to fall 14% in 4Q13 quarter. /s
I assume they mean 'per share', but gave up expecting good reporting from AI a long time ago.

4Q of 2013? They're already thinking of next year's refresh?
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post #14 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

I remembered you told us Apple is not immune to U.S. recession, and I believe that. But why the recession begins to bite Apple now, this time this year?

Where did I ever claim that Apple was immune to a recession?

Your imagination is getting the better of you.
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post #15 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Where did I ever claim that Apple was immune to a recession?
Your imagination is getting the better of you.

You sure did, back when Apple drop to $580 a couple of month earlier.

 

Now just answer the question alright? Why do you think MSNBC would be right this time, that iPhone 5 may not be a blockbuster release like investors take for granted for so long? I need some opinion.

post #16 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Where did I ever claim that Apple was immune to a recession?
Your imagination is getting the better of you.

I'd say it. Even if they do drop 14% (which I don't believe for a second) it'll still be much better than everyone else. I can see a small drop next year but more likely a single digit drop. All that got the 4S at launch and didn't upgrade this year will be up for contract renewal plus all the people that upgrade yearly.
Edited by dasanman69 - 8/20/12 at 7:38am
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post #17 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


I'd say it. Even if they do drop 14% (which I don't believe for a second) it'll still be much better than everyone else.

By being the cleanest shirt in a dirty pile?

post #18 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

I'd say it. Even if they do drop 14% (which I don't believe for a second) it'll still be much better than everyone else.
By being the cleanest shirt in a dirty pile?

I think the OP was referring to the assumption that the sales of the iPhone five will drop 14% from the year ago quarter, when the iPhone six is released -- Similar to the way any new model affects the sale of the prior model... No surprise, and no news either.
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post #19 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

You sure did, back when Apple drop to $580 a couple of month earlier.

Prove it.

I never said any such thing and your delusions don't change the facts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

Now just answer the question alright? Why do you think MSNBC would be right this time, that iPhone 5 may not be a blockbuster release like investors take for granted for so long? I need some opinion.

Please try to keep up. Note the '/s' tag in my post. My point was not whether the numbers were accurate or not. My comment was a dig at MSNBC which manages to find one tiny bit of negative information about Apple and makes that the headline even when a report is otherwise very positive. So, IF THE NUMBERS ARE ACCURATE, MSNBC would ignore the projected 20% increase this year and focus on a 14% decline a year further into the future. I'm not suggesting that any of the numbers are correct, incorrect, or partially correct.
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post #20 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

I remembered you told us Apple is not immune to U.S. recession, and I believe that. But why the recession begins to bite Apple now, this time this year?

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post #21 of 84

Anybody catch that actual MSNBC piece? What did they said? Why Apple's luck may not hold this time? It got out just fine in 2010 and 2011, why not this one? What has changed since Jobs is gone?

post #22 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

I don't see a smartphone with 30% bezel getting sold to a quarter of billion people nowadays. Just won't happen.

I did a rough measurement on the the S3 from an image and it is around 20% bezel. Not that I have ever considered the bezel of the iPhone to be a hindrance of any kind nor have I given it much thought either. I seriously doubt many people would place much priority on a 10% difference in bezel when there are so many positive aspects in the iPhone, which I am sure I don't need to list.

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post #23 of 84
Back to the post -- I think this makes sense. All those that were waiting for the iPhone to hit Verizon and got it day 1 back in Feb 2010 are either about to be eligible, or will be eligible by 10/7 for an upgrade. Add to that Verizon having a huge LTE lead over everyone else in the states, and I see this one selling extremely well on Verizon. Heck, I am so ready, I accepted the gazelle.com offer for my Verizon iPhone 4 today, so I will be able to upgrade my 32 gb 4 to a 32gb new iPhone for about $99. (assuming price/size stays the same).

This will be Verizon's best selling phone this season, I think.
post #24 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

I don't see a smartphone with 30% bezel getting sold to a quarter of billion people nowadays. Just won't happen.

Everyone take note—a new spec benchmark: bezel percentage!
post #25 of 84

hmmm - do you suppose they'll call it the "The New iPhone" instead of iPhone 5 ?

 

or maybe iPhone 4LTE ?

 

or maybe if it has an A6 chip in it they will call it the iPhone 6 ?

 

or maybe if it has a 4.3" Screen they will call it the iPhone 4.3LTE, the phone that Rhymes (or would that be reserved for the Iphony4.3LTE)?

 

 

post #26 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

hmmm - do you suppose they'll call it the "The New iPhone" instead of iPhone 5 ?

 

or maybe iPhone 4LTE ?

 

or maybe if it has an A6 chip in it they will call it the iPhone 6 ?

 

or maybe if it has a 4.3" Screen they will call it the iPhone 4.3LTE, the phone that Rhymes (or would that be reserved for the Iphony4.3LTE)?

 

 

I though iPhone 5 would be the easiest choice. They can even keep LTE for S version when AT&T is ready with proper LTE coverage. Since LTE equivalent on GSM is not ready for prime time yet.

post #27 of 84
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Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I did a rough measurement on the the S3 from an image and it is around 20% bezel. Not that I have ever considered the bezel of the iPhone to be a hindrance of any kind nor have I given it much thought either. I seriously doubt many people would place much priority on a 10% difference in bezel when there are so many positive aspects in the iPhone, which I am sure I don't need to list.

Would you say that 20% is as far as our current engineering can go, given the level of manufacturing technology Samsung or anyone got now?

 

How far along TV department can reduce the size and percentage of their bezel? If Samsung TV cannot break 20% treshold either, what should they do to get a bigger screen and not become much bigger than Galaxy Note which, IMO, as big as you can go for a phone design.

post #28 of 84

What does this guy know that only a couple of folks inside Apple knows? Hyping the stock before the September (?) announcement, then when Apple fails to deliver on the hype, which it must invariably do, then the stock tanks. 

 

Please, whenever some typical Wall Street jerk makes a statement like this, precede the report with the title **** NO EVIDENCE OPINION ****.

post #29 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

Would you say that 20% is as far as our current engineering can go, given the level of manufacturing technology Samsung or anyone got now?

 

How far along TV department can reduce the size and percentage of their bezel? If Samsung TV cannot break 20% treshold either, what should they do to get a bigger screen and not become much bigger than Galaxy Note which, IMO, as big as you can go for a phone design.

There is no reason to make the bezel smaller. You need someplace to put the proximity sensor, earphone, front facing camera, and a home button, plus the side bezel provide a buffer to hold it without accidental touch events. You could build a phone with zero bezel but it would lose functionality in my opinion. 

 

There is also the space required for the rear facing camera. A camera with a better lens is going to be a slightly deeper dimension and with the extreme thinness of the phone case you would probably have to compromise the depth of the camera as it would likely be in conflict with the thickness of the screen. So that is another practical function of the bezel. I have not seen a real Galaxy S3 but from the pictures it appears that the rear camera actually protrudes from the case probably for that same reason.


Edited by mstone - 8/20/12 at 9:13am

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post #30 of 84

FWIW - I am sure Apple will sell a lot of them... in the US. 

 

The iPhone is struggling in Europe as carriers aren't subsidizing as much and europeans aren't as tech crazy as we are.
Also, higher speed networks are REALLY hit/miss there. China, the iPhone is doing so-so. 

 

250M units though is a pretty crazy number, but feasible if you are talking the ENTIRE product lifecycle... maybe 2/2.5 years?

Heck the iPhone 3GS is just starting to end of life.

 

The ONLY thing I truly think that may hold the iPhone (or iPad) back at this point is iOS. I know you guys, myself included, like the simplicity of the OS. But, compared to newer OS' like Android Jellybean(?) or even Windows 8... there's a TON of features one wishes iOS had integrated into the OS versus using an app for... which Android and Windows 8 has built-in versus requiring an app to do that. And with most tech users, once we get the foundation usage patterns established, we tend to want a little bit more.


 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
post #31 of 84

I'm not even gonna come up with a clever way fo saying this like usually do; Mr. Berger, it will not be called the iPhone 5.

 

 


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post #32 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

Two please. Right now. Our iPhone 4s feel so sluggish these days.

 

Just gotta figure out whether to leave AT&Thieves for Verizon or not.

 

No sign of AT&T LTE in Philly. That might do it.

Sorry, I'm ahead of you in the queue. My iPhone 4 (not 4s) feels monumentally slow now! ;-)

post #33 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

FWIW - I am sure Apple will sell a lot of them... in the US. 

 

The iPhone is struggling in Europe as carriers aren't subsidizing as much and europeans aren't as tech crazy as we are.
Also, higher speed networks are REALLY hit/miss there. China, the iPhone is doing so-so. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Forget iOS. Is iPhone still able to keep its coll factor since they are so many of them today. Practically every man and a dog has iPhone now.

 

Would iPhone remains a 'cool' fashion accessory like it was since 2007 this year?

post #34 of 84
Inb4 the leaked photos so far are ugly and it won't sell well at all. (Not my opinion btw)
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post #35 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

Anybody catch that actual MSNBC piece? What did they said? Why Apple's luck may not hold this time? It got out just fine in 2010 and 2011, why not this one? What has changed since Jobs is gone?

Please try to keep up.

It was a sarcastic comment about what MSNBC would probably say if they remain true to form.

It's pretty sad that you didn't get that - even after it was explained to you.
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post #36 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Youarewrong View Post

$50 in earnings. That's how you manage expectations!

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by malax View Post

"$50 in earning" seems conservative.

 

My thoughts exactly. I think the quarter over quarter results would be pretty bad as well as having a somewhat negative effect on fiscal year earnings report. It is amazing that this analyst is apparently able to project earnings to the nearest $10. Or is it $50 increment? ;)

post #37 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

Forget iOS. Is iPhone still able to keep its coll factor since they are so many of them today. Practically every man and a dog has iPhone now.

 

Would iPhone remains a 'cool' fashion accessory like it was since 2007 this year?

 

 Now fairthhrope, is your dog using your account again? You might have it try the spell checker.

post #38 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

The ONLY thing I truly think that may hold the iPhone (or iPad) back at this point is iOS. I know you guys, myself included, like the simplicity of the OS. But, compared to newer OS' like Android Jellybean(?) or even Windows 8... there's a TON of features one wishes iOS had integrated into the OS versus using an app for... which Android and Windows 8 has built-in versus requiring an app to do that. And with most tech users, once we get the foundation usage patterns established, we tend to want a little bit more.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

This is a sincere questions, since I don't have any hands-on experience with Jellybean or Windows 8: can you give some examples of missing features from iOS?

post #39 of 84

I dunno.  Wish he hadn't called it a Tsunami. 

post #40 of 84
Originally Posted by jlandd View Post
I dunno.  Wish he hadn't called it a Tsunami. 

 

On the contrary. I think we know the name of the new device now.

 

"iPhone 4T". Tagline: 'Because T comes after S'.

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