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Steve Jobs describes future of personal computing in 1983 speech

post #1 of 56
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A 1983 speech from late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was made available recently, with the tech guru expounding on how personal computers would change the landscape of technology forever.

The talk, made available by the Center for Design Innovation (via The Next Web), was from 1983's International Design Conference at Aspen, at which a 20-something Steve Jobs spoke to how personal computers would change the world forever. His insight was eerily prescient as he described a day when email would dominate the communications landscape, people would use portable network-connected computing devices and users would be able to interact with machines in new and innovative ways.

In about 20 minutes, Jobs summarized the then-current state of personal computing, noting that the market was about to see a significant boom. He also said that computers would likely be poorly designed, a theory that became reality with the early beige boxes of the 80s and early 90s, including Apple's own Apple II.

Jobs' vision of "good design" meant not only building aesthetically pleasing machines, but devices that had a utility of function like user-friendly GUIs akin to those seen on early Macs.

Near the end of his talk, Jobs looked even further into the future, hinting that technology like artificial intelligence and predictive computing could one day be a possibility.

He recalls how books helped him learn straight from the source instead of being filtered through interpretation when he was in school, citing Plato and Aristotle as two examples. The problem, Jobs said, was that the great minds couldn't be tapped once they were dead. To this, he proposed a machine that can collect data, compiling it into a type of artificial intelligence.



"I think as we look toward the next 50 to 100 years, if we really can come up with these machines that can capture an underlying spirit, or an underlying set of principles, or an underlying way of looking at the world so that then when the next Aristotle comes around?" Jobs said. "Maybe if he carries around one these machines with him his whole life and types in all this stuff, then maybe someday after the person's dead and gone we can ask this machine, 'Hey, what would Aristotle have said?what about this?' And maybe we won't get the right answer?but maybe we will. And that's really exciting to me."

A video of the speech as well as an accompanying audio file can be found at the Center for Design Innovation's blog.
post #2 of 56

I like how he says that computers seem magical, but then explains it is really doing mundane things really, really fast. The intelligence and charisma were already there before he turned 30.

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post #3 of 56

Truly a great post.  I really like to listen to Steve's logic and reasoning.  The guy had it.  Wonder why they never studied his brain logic and tried to develop another human like him or even clone him in secret.

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post #4 of 56

 

He was a good artist. I missed you, Steve.

post #5 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by tylerk36 View Post

Truly a great post.  I really like to listen to Steve's logic and reasoning.  The guy had it.  Wonder why they never studied his brain logic and tried to develop another human like him or even clone him in secret.

 

Why? Because his particular brand of genius was the kind that stemmed from his being a deeply dissatisfied person. He was the kind of person who could only drive progress forward by manipulating people, sometimes with charm, sometimes with lies or psychological abuse. Knowing how to manipulate people and actually doing it are hallmarks of the best known people in the world.

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #6 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by tylerk36 View Post

Truly a great post.  I really like to listen to Steve's logic and reasoning.  The guy had it.  Wonder why they never studied his brain logic and tried to develop another human like him or even clone him in secret.

If they cloned him in secret, then you wouldn't know about it, would you....?

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #7 of 56
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Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
Knowing how to manipulate people and actually doing it are hallmarks of the best known people in the world.

Oh, please. why does every discussion have to end with a mention of Hitler?

post #8 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A 1983 speech from late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was made available recently, with the tech guru expounding on how personal computers would change the landscape of technology forever.

"I think as we look toward the next 50 to 100 years, if we really can come up with these machines that can capture an underlying spirit, or an underlying set of principles, or an underlying way of looking at the world so that then when...."

 

Reading the above article and listening to Steve talk, reminded me of a February 10, 2011 Times article titled, 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal.

 

Read at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299,00.html

 

2045 is the projected date that computers will become smarter then humans. I struggle to imagine the unexpected insights that may come from this smarter computer, but Steve Jobs was hinting at it in the last paragraph of the initial post in this thread.

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #9 of 56
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post
Oh, please. why does every discussion have to end with a mention of Hitler?

 

… Because you're the one that brought it up?

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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post #10 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

Oh, please. why does every discussion have to end with a mention of Hitler?

Unless you are being sarcastic, YOU are the first person to bring up Hitler's name.

 

There are a great number of ways to manipulate people to do one's bidding. They range from charm and charisma to fear and psychological abuse. From the raising of the pyramids to today, leadership has been behind all great or garish accomplishments. 

 

Here is one of the most amazing demonstrations by Derren Brown of manipulation using NLP:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=befugtgikMg

 

 

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #11 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

 

Why? Because his particular brand of genius was the kind that stemmed from his being a deeply dissatisfied person. He was the kind of person who could only drive progress forward by manipulating people, sometimes with charm, sometimes with lies or psychological abuse. Knowing how to manipulate people and actually doing it are hallmarks of the best known people in the world.

 

And the world is all the better for it. 

 

Well, at least Samsung is. 

 

 

 

Dissatisfaction is the mother of innovation. Steve looked around and said "this stuff isn't good enough." 

post #12 of 56
I hope some of the heads of APPL are reminded of his foresight from time to time, just so they stay somewhat on track to his goals. Yes to make money and be a profitable company but also delivering great products that people value.
post #13 of 56

I almost never use the term 'visionary.' But Jobs was clearly one. 

 

I think that 50, 100 years from now, people will look back and go 'wow.' I consider myself fortunate to have been a contemporary, and to be able to benefit from his presence here among us.

post #14 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobM View Post

I hope some of the heads of APPL are reminded of his foresight from time to time, just so they stay somewhat on track to his goals. Yes to make money and be a profitable company but also delivering great products that people value.

 

My thoughts are the same but somehow I feel Steve Jobs had this covered when he initiated Apple University. Apple as a company was truly his best creation.


http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/10/06/apple_university_revealed_as_plan_to_teach_executives_to_think_like_steve_jobs.html

post #15 of 56
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post
Steve looked around and said "this stuff isn't good enough." 

 

In… so many words. 💩

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #16 of 56

You're totally missing the point of computers. They're MACHINES!. They'll never be smart. You don't know what smart means. They'll never be intelligent. You don't know what intelligent means.

 

They're MACHINES. They have to be told what to do and when to do it. That's not smart. That's not intelligent.

 

They'll never surpass humans--unless you only consider the machine aspect of humans. Unless humans continue to devolve into machines themselves.

 

There will be at least some of us who will NEVER do that.

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post #17 of 56

Considering the volumes of information available about famous individuals today, I wonder if there should be an attempt to archive such information for future use.

 

Caprica (TV series) on SyFy had a similar plot device wherein a sophisticated web crawler was used to collect all possible data about a character on the show and (eventually) integrated into a Cylon to give it a personality.

 
post #18 of 56

I guess Siri and the iPhone is the first step towards the computer he was referring to that people carry their entire lives which will someday learn everything about its owner to the point where it would know what he/she is thinking.

 
post #19 of 56

"we're going to sell 10 million of these computers whether they are a piece of shit or not"

 

7:53 into the audio track. Yep he said it.

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post #20 of 56

haha... these days we aren't so much asking "what would aristotle say" as we are asking "what would steve jobs say". The guy was, besides an artist and a scientist, a philosopher.

post #21 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielSW View Post

You're totally missing the point of computers. They're MACHINES!. They'll never be smart. You don't know what smart means. They'll never be intelligent. You don't know what intelligent means.

 

They're MACHINES. They have to be told what to do and when to do it. That's not smart. That's not intelligent.

 

They'll never surpass humans--unless you only consider the machine aspect of humans. Unless humans continue to devolve into machines themselves.

 

There will be at least some of us who will NEVER do that.

 

Please define "intelligent" and "smart."  

 

Some human behavior is unintelligent and some intelligent behavior is inhuman.  How do you address such a paradox?

 

There are machines which display very complex "intelligence" such as:  biometric person recognition via facial recognition, gait recognition and voice recognition (among others); natural language processing with context awareness; optical character recognition; decision-making; predictive modeling; etc.  These are the same activities that humans perform constantly without conscious thought.  These are discrete thought processes which machines can model today.

 

What thought processes do you believe can not be modeled computationally? 

 
post #22 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielSW View Post

You're totally missing the point of computers. They're MACHINES!. They'll never be smart. You don't know what smart means. They'll never be intelligent. You don't know what intelligent means.

 

They're MACHINES. They have to be told what to do and when to do it. That's not smart. That's not intelligent.

 

They'll never surpass humans--unless you only consider the machine aspect of humans. Unless humans continue to devolve into machines themselves.

 

There will be at least some of us who will NEVER do that.

 

Actually, your missing the point of putting enough information and rules into a computer that it CAN be "intelligent" by a human asking it the correct type of question. What do you think the whole "artificial intelligence" field is all about? Yes, they only understand what we give them, but as we give them more and more they understand more and more, and if we tell them how to tie information together, then perhaps they will be able to do it better and/or faster than we can...

 

In fact, if your going to look at it like that, WE are somewhat MACHINES. We are given information, we can look at a set of characteristics, objects, etc and based on "rules" that we are taught and are grown up to respect can make decisions or opinions of those. Really we are machines to some extent. We do question things that don't make sense, but a machine can do the same thing... when its data doesn't give it a precise answer, it can be instructed to ask "Why?" or to access the internet and search for information on the subject matter and after pooling that data make decisions on what appears to be most correct, just as a person would probably do.


Edited by hlevolve - 8/23/12 at 9:11pm
post #23 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielSW View Post

You're totally missing the point of computers. They're MACHINES!. They'll never be smart. You don't know what smart means. They'll never be intelligent. You don't know what intelligent means.

They're MACHINES. They have to be told what to do and when to do it. That's not smart. That's not intelligent.

They'll never surpass humans--unless you only consider the machine aspect of humans. Unless humans continue to devolve into machines themselves.

There will be at least some of us who will NEVER do that.

I'd suggest that you educate yourself before blathering about things you don't understand.

In principle, there's nothing that a human brain can do that a computer can not mimic well enough that they would be indistinguishable. Look up 'Turing test' for example.

Better yet, take a critical thinking course and learn something about intelligence and what it means.
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post #24 of 56
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Originally Posted by 845032 View Post

He was a good artist. I missed you, Steve.

You have no idea what he (or Picasso) was even talking about.

post #25 of 56
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Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

Oh, please. why does every discussion have to end with a mention of Hitler?

It didn't until you mentioned him

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #26 of 56

Apple/Google maps still has to implement seasonal street views.

post #27 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


I'd suggest that you educate yourself before blathering about things you don't understand.
In principle, there's nothing that a human brain can do that a computer can not mimic well enough that they would be indistinguishable. Look up 'Turing test' for example.
Better yet, take a critical thinking course and learn something about intelligence and what it means.

I'm wondering what you will be saying to the computer that is administering your lethal injection in riddance of the human race in the year 2050 or so.

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post #28 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

"we're going to sell 10 million of these computers whether they are a piece of shit or not"

 

7:53 into the audio track. Yep he said it.

By "we" I think he meant the industry as a whole, not just Apple.

And he also said it would cost the same to build shit or beauty, so,

let's do beauty.

 

Its like taking the stealing quote out of context, as an apology/rationalization for Samsung copying...

gotta take the whole idea, not the bit that supports your point.

 

Sorry, if I misapprehended why you quoted this "bit".

post #29 of 56

Steve wanted a machine that could capture a person's "underlying spirit"   Back when Apple started, so did all his co-workers, because Steve did not like bathing, using deodorant, or wearing shoes.

 

One day, all the media jerks will stop trying to make a buck off a dead guy.  Steve had his good points and bad ones, just like everyone else.  Let Steve rest in peace.

post #30 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

 

And the world is all the better for it. 

 

Well, at least Samsung is. 

 

 

 

Dissatisfaction is the mother of innovation. Steve looked around and said "this stuff isn't good enough." 

Quodo you couldn't be more right...I mentioned in an earlier post that last week I went into a Best Buy (first time in years) to look at the Ret. MBP. I was astounded and nauseated by the multitude of blue gray colored plasticky crap products Best Buy sells. It was like I walked into 1995. I have the similar feeling when I walk into my friends's office. Basically full of his and his wife's pwr bricks and dusty cables connected to crappy small displays and crappy Windows towers with crappy clunky keyboards and mice. All sitting on crappy OfficeMax type crappy desks. Ugh.

 

I know I sound like a broken record but, an iP5, an MBA, an iPad 8," iCloud and a large screen AppleTV and I'm good to go. Maybe a TimeCapsule, too.

 

I want to simplify my digital life. And thanks to Steve I can. I will not buy electronic equipment unless it is made by Apple.

 

Camera? Sold it and use my iPhone 4s.

 

Stand-alone-GPS? Nada, I use TomTom App.

 

Video Cam? Nope, iP4s, again. 

 

Stereo? Nope, iP4s, again. 

 

iPod? Nope, iP4s, again. 

 

DSLR Camera? Nope...will do without until Apple makes one.

 

TV? Nope.... am doing without until Apple makes one.

 

Printer? Forced to use a Brother MFC495CN but get my ink from Amazon for less than a 10th of what I would pay at Target or OfficeMax. B/C it's wireless, I keep it in a closet, so I don't have to look at it. Doing a lot less printing anyway...may have to buy a printer that will print from my iOS devices soon. Will try to avoid HP like the plague!


Edited by christopher126 - 8/23/12 at 10:21pm
post #31 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by boredumb View Post

By "we" I think he meant the industry as a whole, not just Apple.

And he also said it would cost the same to build shit or beauty, so,

let's do beauty.

 

Its like taking the stealing quote out of context, as an apology/rationalization for Samsung copying...

gotta take the whole idea, not the bit that supports your point.

 

Sorry, if I misapprehended why you quoted this "bit".

Yeah what ever. He was way off the accepted academic presentation guidelines with cuss words.

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post #32 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

 

Why? Because his particular brand of genius was the kind that stemmed from his being a deeply dissatisfied person. He was the kind of person who could only drive progress forward by manipulating people, sometimes with charm, sometimes with lies or psychological abuse. Knowing how to manipulate people and actually doing it are hallmarks of the best known people in the world.

And then he became a billionaire.  Woo hoo.

An Apple man since 1977
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An Apple man since 1977
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post #33 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

If they cloned him in secret, then you wouldn't know about it, would you....?

Exactly!  But we the world would benefit from the genius of him wouldn't it?

An Apple man since 1977
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post #34 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I'm wondering what you will be saying to the computer that is administering your lethal injection in riddance of the human race in the year 2050 or so.

I guess I'll be saying "Bye-bye..."

post #35 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Quodo you couldn't be more right...I mentioned in an earlier post that last week I went into a Best Buy (first time in years) to look at the Ret. MBP. I was astounded and nauseated by the multitude of blue gray colored plasticky crap products Best Buy sells. It was like I walked into 1995. I have the similar feeling when I walk into my friends's office. Basically full of his and his wife's pwr bricks and dusty cables connected to crappy small displays and crappy Windows towers with crappy clunky keyboards and mice. All sitting on crappy OfficeMax type crappy desks. Ugh.

 

I know I sound like a broken record but, an iP5, an MBA, an iPad 8," iCloud and a large screen AppleTV and I'm good to go. Maybe a TimeCapsule, too.

 

I want to simplify my digital life. I will not buy electronic equipment unless it is made by Apple.

 

Camera? Sold it and use my iPhone 4s.

 

Stand-alone-GPS? Nada, I use TomTom App.

 

Video Cam? Nope, iP4s, again. 

 

DSLR Camera? Nope...will do without until Apple makes one.

 

TV? Nope.... am doing without until Apple makes one.

 

Printer? Forced to use a Brother MFC495CN but get my ink from Amazon for less than a 10th of what I would pay at Target or OfficeMax. B/C it's wireless, I keep it in a closet, so I don't have to look at it. Doing a lot less printing anyway...may have to buy a printer that will print from my iOS devices soon. Will try to avoid HP like the plague!

Brilliant!

post #36 of 56
There are lots of prior art to Siri, so no, it wouldn't be the first step
post #37 of 56
What are the chances any 20-somethings in tech today mention the names Plato or Aristotle in a sentence? Sadly, I'd say the chances are zero.
post #38 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

Yeah what ever. He was way off the accepted academic presentation guidelines with cuss words.

 

Hey, the world was just coming off the f*ckin' '70s fer kerist's sake!! 

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #39 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Quodo you couldn't be more right...I mentioned in an earlier post that last week I went into a Best Buy (first time in years) to look at the Ret. MBP. I was astounded and nauseated by the multitude of blue gray colored plasticky crap products Best Buy sells. It was like I walked into 1995. I have the similar feeling when I walk into my friends's office. Basically full of his and his wife's pwr bricks and dusty cables connected to crappy small displays and crappy Windows towers with crappy clunky keyboards and mice. All sitting on crappy OfficeMax type crappy desks. Ugh.

 

Gawd! I just LOVE the smell of PVC and pressed wood in the morning!

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #40 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by k2director View Post

What are the chances any 20-somethings in tech today mention the names Plato or Aristotle in a sentence? Sadly, I'd say the chances are zero.

qft - they're more likely to salute Stephen Hawking who in the context of this thread is eerily human and part machine. Perhaps that should read - human and eerily part machine.
I admire him immensely for his humanity and his ability to simplify concepts that are able to be understood - well, by the likes of me !

Give him 30 secs of deeper detail though and I'm struggling. lol

ot - I know but hey why not.. Arthur C Clarke wrote something similar in terms of human evolution, I forget the book but went along the lines of -
humans transferred their intellect into machines because there were no physical or biological imperfections and then the logical extension from that became pure energy. Dispassionate about anything else other than creating life. - ot
Edited by RobM - 8/24/12 at 12:58am
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