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'iPhone 5' sales could reach 10 million this quarter

post #1 of 44
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With customers holding off purchases in anticipation of Apple's next iPhone, an expected September launch is forecast to provide a significant boost for the company's current quarter, with sales reaching as high as 10 million in just one week.

Following the news that invitations for an event next Wednesday had been sent out by Apple, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray issued a note to investors in which he said a September launch window could have iPhone sales for the current quarter exceed Wall Street expectations.

Market watchers generally expect that Apple will report sales of between 22 million and 23 million iPhones in the September quarter. But a launch of the next iPhone this month could push total sales as high as 28 million, Munster said.

Munster believes Apple could sell a total of between 6 million and 10 million new iPhones in the final week of September, barring potential supply issues. That would result in an 8 percent upside to Wall Street's current projection of $35 billion in revenue, and 12 percent upside to earnings per share of $8.46.

If Apple were to sell 8 million of the new iPhone at launch, it would top the 4 million units that the iPhone 4S sold in its first three days of availability last year. Prior to that, Apple's record launch for the iPhone 4 achieved 1.7 million units in three days.

iPhone 5 2


Rumors have suggested the next iPhone will become immediately available for preorder when it is unveiled next Wednesday. It's expected that the device will become available in the U.S. and select other countries the following Friday, Sept. 21.

The new iPhone is expected to be formally unveiled at Apple's keynote presentation next Wednesday, beginning at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, Calif. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage of the event.
post #2 of 44
'iPhone 5' sales could reach 10 million this quarter

I'll see your 10 and raise you 5.
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post #3 of 44
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post
'iPhone 5' sales could reach 10 million this quarter
I'll see your 10 and raise you 5.

 

How many per quarter would it have to be to outsell all previous iPhones combined as all the others have?

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Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #4 of 44

No : 10 Millions +1 (my order)

post #5 of 44

If I'm eligible for an upgrade now with VZ, how's that work with pre-order?  Can I just order through VZ? Or is there a way to order from Apple and still get my upgrade, which is what I prefer to do.  Order from Apple, that is.

post #6 of 44

Yes larger screen.  I would have preferred a wider and taller screen.  But I guess we will have to wait and see if the iPhone 5s or 6 will sport the wider screen.


Edited by tylerk36 - 9/4/12 at 10:29am
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post #7 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

How many per quarter would it have to be to outsell all previous iPhones combined as all the others have?

Who cares. Will never happen. Not because it has 30% bezel ratio, longer case, or lacks NFC, but simply because every exponential growth comes to an end.
post #8 of 44
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post
Who cares. Will never happen. …because every exponential growth comes to an end.

 

Would you drop the nonsense about the bezels? How are you supposed to hold a phone safely without bezels? Where are the speaker and front-facing camera supposed to go? Not all apps have dual-thumb controls, and those that do don't use them 100% of the time.

 

And while I agree with the latter half of that, the former is something said about every iPhone that has been proven wrong every time. We'd have to have some indication beforehand that it wasn't going to happen for saying that to be more than just doom and gloom. We're close to that point, sure, but not there yet.

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Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #9 of 44

Sales of gold-and-aqua iPhone 4S’s remain in the toilet. Shudder.

post #10 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

...every exponential growth comes to an end.

...just not this year.

If they release in mainland China at the same time, they should be able to do double last year's sales. The real question is if they could possibly have stocked enough units to hit that level of sales. 10MM units is about one month of iPhone 4S production at the peak. Realistically, ramp-up is at half that pace best case, so they would have needed two full months of production before launch to maintain the record.

The first rumors of full-scale production published here were in August if I recall correctly, so that is not too far off of where it would have needed to be.
post #11 of 44

The question is, will they have ENOUGH to handle the demand?

I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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post #12 of 44

So it might be called iPhone 5 after all? A lot of crow eating here and elsewhere if true.

post #13 of 44

IPhone Sales

Depends on when they record a sale.  I could see 20 million sold in the first 10 days if Apple reports sales that include inventory build up by the carriers (VZ,ATT, Sprint) with the actual activation or upgrade occuring at a later date.. Also depends on how fast the international rollout is for this release.  Every new phone has had quicker international launches.  We should start to see all international shipping routes from Asia to the West completely sold out.

post #14 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post

The question is, will they have ENOUGH to handle the demand?

 

From past evidence alone: no they won’t, and that will hurt sales in the short term. But most people who can’t get one will just wait, and the tail of massive sales will be a long one.

post #15 of 44

WOW, how soon we forget. It was only last Friday that this story was post here on AI: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/08/31/sharp_hits_delays_producing_screens_for_apples_next_iphone___wsj.html

 

So is it possible to ship enough to meet demand with display/touchscreen production delays? Who does the cross/fact checking around here?

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #16 of 44

Assuming a Sept. 21 release, that gives them 10 days to deliver (not ship!) 10M units. To think they could stockpile that many units is insane while still producing the older model phones. That said, I have a spoon ready to eat my words if they do it. I'll help by picking up at least one of the 10M, hopefully in the first week.
 

post #17 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

If I'm eligible for an upgrade now with VZ, how's that work with pre-order?  Can I just order through VZ? Or is there a way to order from Apple and still get my upgrade, which is what I prefer to do.  Order from Apple, that is.

 

Anyone with a calculator should run the numbers and see that it makes NO SENSE to buy a locked phone from an operator and be under contract. You should buy the phone directly from Apple and then do a month-to-month prepaid plan or use one of the MVNOs the resells the service for the operator of your choice. Of course, so far Verizon and AT&T have not allowed MVNOs to resell their LTE services yet.

 

With the iPhone 4S, you didn't even have to choose a different phone if you wanted to use Verizon or AT&T because it was the same phone for both.

post #18 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post

Assuming a Sept. 21 release, that gives them 10 days to deliver (not ship!) 10M units. To think they could stockpile that many units is insane while still producing the older model phones. That said, I have a spoon ready to eat my words if they do it. I'll help by picking up at least one of the 10M, hopefully in the first week.
 

Supply chain management - which Apple is undisputedly the leader - works quite a bit different than what you allude. Apple knows exactly when it is going to release a new iPhone. They also know exactly how much inventory has built up (including some they did intentionally to cover manufacturing disruptions like a model change). Also remember that Apple still produces the 3GS and 4, and will do the same for the 4S. They are very experienced at managing the supply side through manufacturing planning.

 

They are most assuredly already manufacturing the next iPhone, at least most of it. If, for example, there are screen supply issues they still build the other pieces that they can prior to needing the screen. 

post #19 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

If I'm eligible for an upgrade now with VZ, how's that work with pre-order?  Can I just order through VZ? Or is there a way to order from Apple and still get my upgrade, which is what I prefer to do.  Order from Apple, that is.

It just works.... Apple has a nice little (on their sales iPod Touch) app that they ask you your VZ account information, drill into their Database, check your eligibility, make the sale, assign your number and connect your phone to their network... less than 10 minutes.

post #20 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post

Assuming a Sept. 21 release, that gives them 10 days to deliver (not ship!) 10M units. To think they could stockpile that many units is insane while still producing the older model phones. That said, I have a spoon ready to eat my words if they do it. I'll help by picking up at least one of the 10M, hopefully in the first week.
 

42,000/hour ... 12 per second from the apple from the manufacturing loading dock to your doorstep.   The skies will be black with 747s over China and Memphis.

 

If they plan a run rate of 8Million/month (24 Million a quarter, or 2/3rds next years sell through rate), then you can consider that they can build 4 million From Sept 12-27.  They have to stock pile 6Million prior to that, which is 3 weeks worth.   

 

The manufacturing is doable.  The delivery Logisitics (just boxing and labeling them) is the crazy part.

post #21 of 44

Nice numbers (I didn't double check the math, but I believe you). It puts into perspective what the greatest product launch will look like if the 10M units this quarter are delivered.

 

I wonder what the split is for over-the-counter vs ordered is.

post #22 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

42,000/hour ... 12 per second from the apple from the manufacturing loading dock to your doorstep.   The skies will be black with 747s over China and Memphis.

 

If they plan a run rate of 8Million/month (24 Million a quarter, or 2/3rds next years sell through rate), then you can consider that they can build 4 million From Sept 12-27.  They have to stock pile 6Million prior to that, which is 3 weeks worth.   

 

The manufacturing is doable.  The delivery Logisitics (just boxing and labeling them) is the crazy part.

A lot of those will already be transported to Apple's own distribution centers for the inventories at retail locations. They seem mostly to ship the individual preorders direct from China. Still, one can't help but be impressed by what they are able to handle logistics-wise.

post #23 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Would you drop the nonsense about the bezels? How are you supposed to hold a phone safely without bezels?

 

 

 

I hold it on my palm and control with a thumb like this:

 

I need no bezel with this grip.

My thumb comfortably reaches an entire area of the bottom bezel but barely reached the top bezel that is why I believe that longer case is a bad idea and wasted space at the bottom is a terribly bad idea.

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Where are the speaker and front-facing camera supposed to go? 

 

Once the technology allows, these will surely fit at the top rounded portion of the case, just look at the back panel of the iPhone-5 and imagine that the center panel is a display. Wasted space would be minimal. Unfortunately not this time.

 

post #24 of 44
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post
I hold it on my palm and control with a thumb like this: I need no bezel with this grip.

 

Sideways! In landscape, not portrait. 

 

Originally Posted by Marvin

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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #25 of 44
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Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

The skies will be black with 747s over China and Memphis.

And tears will be flowing like rivers in Seoul, S. Korea.... lol.gif

post #26 of 44

How many companies ship 10 million of anything anywhere in a week!? Of what?

 

Mind-boggling, if it comes to pass....

post #27 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

'iPhone 5' sales could reach 10 million this quarter
I'll see your 10 and raise you 5.

That sounds awfully high - that's 1.5 M per day for the first 10 days - and availability will almost certainly be the limiting factor. Unless you have some inside information on availability, your guess sounds way too optimistic.
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post #28 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Sideways! In landscape, not portrait. 

 

 

The width of the rounded sections would be enough most of the times otherwise apps should just "virtualize" sufficient bezels depending on their use cases.

post #29 of 44
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post
…apps should just "virtualize" sufficient bezels depending on their use cases.

 

… No. They're given the screen for a reason; they should be able to use the entire screen without compensating for a failing of the hardware. Do other phones have to do that?

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

… No. They're given the screen for a reason; they should be able to use the entire screen without compensating for a failing of the hardware. Do other phones have to do that?

 

Why not? The hardware (if capable) should not limit the apps.

 

It all depends on a use case:

  • Video players, photo frames - do no need bezels at all
  • Your example of a PSP-style landscape video game - may need thicker side bezels 
  • A board game for two while the device is lying on a surface - no need for bezels
  • Browser in a portrait mode - no bezels please 
  • E-book reader in a portrait mode - may need thicker side bezels for thumb hold

 

 

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Do other phones have to do that?

 

Is this a good indicator for not having a feature? Someone should be first.

Before iPhone, other phones did not do anything iPhone could do.

 

iPad Mini may potentially be a first iDevice with virtual bezels.

post #31 of 44
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post
The hardware (if capable) should not limit the apps.

 

Exactly, which is why the bezels will stay.

 

iPad Mini may potentially be a first iDevice with virtual bezels.

 

Why would I want to develop for a screen that forces me to give up resolution for some apps while allowing me to have all of it for another, based on the use thereof?

Originally Posted by Marvin

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Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #32 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

That sounds awfully high - that's 1.5 M per day for the first 10 days - and availability will almost certainly be the limiting factor. Unless you have some inside information on availability, your guess sounds way too optimistic.

I was kind of kidding ... just getting caught up in the excitement /smile
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post #33 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tech360 View Post

Depends on when they record a sale.  I could see 20 million sold in the first 10 days if Apple reports sales that include inventory build up by the carriers (VZ,ATT, Sprint) with the actual activation or upgrade occuring at a later date..

Pretty sure that Apple has always counted a sale as when a customer hands over the credit card/$$.

Deliveries to retailers do not count as a sale.

post #34 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Exactly, which is why the bezels will stay.

 

Why would I want to develop for a screen that forces me to give up resolution for some apps while allowing me to have all of it for another, based on the use thereof?

 

Sorry, but I think I lost you here. 

 

Given that a hardware is capable of delivering edge-to-edge screen, it is a kind of piece of cake for a software to crop itself in a manner that will provide the best usability. This is something to be hand picked by developers according to their use cases.

post #35 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

How many per quarter would it have to be to outsell all previous iPhones combined as all the others have?

If they do 8 millions in the first weekend its going to be a good sign. Since apple revenue depends a lot on the iphone, lets hope it does well.

Apple needs more ipad growth to diversified its income. With an ipad mini, its possible next year apple will be more diversified. I dont like apple dependance on the iphone.
post #36 of 44
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
I dont like apple dependance on the iphone.

 

So they ought to make their Macs an unbeatable and unignorable (what's the real word there?) option for industry, enterprise, education, and home use.

Originally Posted by Marvin

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Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #37 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

So they ought to make their Macs an unbeatable and unignorable (what's the real word there?) option for industry, enterprise, education, and home use.

That would be great. I would be happy to see apple gaining market shares while the pc industry continu to shrink. I see apple gaining more in education and consumer. Entreprise is going to be difficult.

But with education and consumers moving to mobile, the ipad is apple best bet in the long term.
post #38 of 44
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
That would be great. I would be happy to see apple gaining market shares while the pc industry continu to shrink. I see apple gaining more in education and consumer. Entreprise is going to be difficult.
But with education and consumers moving to mobile, the ipad is apple best bet in the long term.

 

Thing about tablets is they've saved the desktop. People will drop their laptops for tablets, but they'll then buy desktop computers for when they need more power than a tablet can provide. The iMac, Mac Mini, and Mac Pro are what Apple need to look at moving forward. I've said this for at least four years now.

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post #39 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


...just not this year.
If they release in mainland China at the same time, they should be able to do double last year's sales. The real question is if they could possibly have stocked enough units to hit that level of sales. 

With Sharp dying and all the troubles with switching suppliers, I don't think Apple will have enough stock. So off-the-shelves, non-preorder wouldn't be available until after Feb 2013. I don't know if they can even deliver 10 million before Christmas.

post #40 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Thing about tablets is they've saved the desktop. People will drop their laptops for tablets, but they'll then buy desktop computers for when they need more power than a tablet can provide. The iMac, Mac Mini, and Mac Pro are what Apple need to look at moving forward. I've said this for at least four years now.

And one PC for every individual will be things of the past, for one PC now enough to support the entire house?

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