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Mitt Romney is Going to Win

post #1 of 1062
Thread Starter 

Mitt Romney is going to win the election.  Granted, that is the outcome I want.  But this prediction is based on empirical and anecdotal data.  When one looks that data, one can see that any other outcome is very unlikely.  

 

The List (which is my own...not copied).  

 

 

1.  No President has been re-elected with unemployment at this level.  In fact, no President has been re-elected with unemployment above 7.3%.  Reagan had the highest unemployment of any reelected President, and that was down from double digits by the time he was up for re-election.  

 

2.  The President's approval rating is in the low forties.  Anything less than 49% spells trouble, historically speaking.  

 

3.  A University of Colorado study, which has predicted the winner of every Presidential election since 1980, shows Romney winning.  The study analyzes state-by-state unemployment and other data.  The same study shows Romney winning 10/10 swing states.  

 

4.  A recently released study by The Hill (likely voters) shows that only 40% believe Obama deserves a second term.  52% say he does not.  

 

5.  Right Track/Wrong Track numbers are staggering.   Between 65-75% of people believe the country is on the wrong track.  

 

6.  Obama's personal favorability has dropped 7 points since April. 

 

7.  Obama's numbers are upside down with Independents.

 

8.  Obama is now losing the female vote.  Earlier this year, he had a 12 point lead.  He's now down 46-50.  That's a swing of 20 points.  

 

9.  The number of Americans that identify as Republicans is at a record high, according to Rasmussen.

 

10.  GDP growth is ominous for the President's chances.  

 

11.  States that helped propel Obama to the Presidency are now virtually gone for Democrats.  Virginia and North Carolina come to mind.  Additionally, the blue state of Wisconsin is now likely to fall to Romney due to Paul Ryan being on the ticket.  While they publicly express confidence, Democrats know that Florida is likely also gone, with Michigan not far behind.  Their chances are Ohio and PA...and PA is the best of those.   

 

12.  John McCain was a weak nominee who saw a lot of fiscal and social conservatives stay home.  This is not the case.  

 

13.  This election does not take place in the midst of a massive financial crises, nor the waning days of an unpopular Bush administration.  

 

14.  Obama has objectively broken several promises, including halving the deficit by the end of his first term, and "fixing" the economy in 3 years (you may recall him saying he'd be looking at one term proposition if he couldn't do so).  Voters don't like blatant;y broken promises and blatant failure.  

 

15.  The Tea Party was not even a sparkle in someone's eye in 2008.  The Tea Party movement was largely responsible for the GOP takeover of the House in 2010.  

 

16.  Both of Obama's signature achievements, Healthcare and the Stimulus bill, are enormously unpopular with voters.  50-60% (depending on the poll) favor repeal of Obamacare.    The numbers on the stimulus are much worse, with 29% saying it helped and 43% saying it hurt.  

 

17.  Obama's worst enemy is Obama himself.  The candidate of Hope and Change™ is now increasingly defensive and angry.  The entire tone of the campaign is different.  

 

18.  McCain was outspent 3 or 4-1.  This will not be the case this time around, with Romney actually enjoying a financial advantage.  

 

19.  Paul Ryan is not Sarah Palin.  It is much harder for the media to smear a policy wonk from a small town with 14 years experience.  He is enormously popular with conservatives in the party, independents alike.  

 

20.  The hidden problem for Obama is in plain sight:  White males.  Obama's support amongst white males is abysmal.  The following article notes that even back in June, Obama did not have enough white male support to win.  Note that the article also says Romney hasn't capitalized, though this has changed since that time.  

 

21.  The enthusiasm gap is a major factor.  Obama is unlikely to motivate his base to the levels it was in 2008.  The GOP base is extraordinarily motivated, however.  

 

 

 

By just about any data point (anecdotal or otherwise), Mitt Romney is going to win.   Obama is going back to Chicago unless there is a major geopolitical event between now and the election.   

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #2 of 1062

Then he's going to win without my vote.

 

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #3 of 1062
Quote:

Obama is going back to Chicago unless there is a major geopolitical event between now and the election.   

 

Remember my thread about false flag attacks?

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #4 of 1062

I'm not going to call it for anybody just yet, but I do think that the election will be pretty close, and I also think that Obama is in deep shit and that the democrats are definitely beginning to panic.

 

Obama has practically nothing to run on, so since his record is not something that anybody can boast about, unless you were to count failures, all that the democrats have left is lying and demonizing Romney and using other tactics like playing the race card which appeals to their ignorant, racist base. The media is doing their best to cover up for the angry and failed president, but I don't believe that their tricks and lies will be as successful this time around. Unemployment is through the roof and Obama is anti-business, anti-success and there are more poor people and slaves to the system under Obama than ever before. 

 

And contrary to what many panicky and lying leftists claim, Clint Eastwood's act at the RNC was a tremendous success and I believe that it was very damaging to the dem's campaign. It's not so much that I am pro-Romney, I am merely anti-Obama, and the dude has had his chance and he's failed. It's time to kick the bum to the curb and give the next guy a shot. I truly believe that an actual empty chair as president would have been less damaging to the USA these past four years than Obama has been.

 

And in the worst case scenario that Obama were to win again, depending upon how many dead people and illegal aliens that the democrats register to vote, the good news is that I'll be ok for the next four years regardless, the people who will suffer the most, just like in the previous four years, will be his ignorant base of voters once again, which is largely comprised of minorities, welfare bums, racists and others who vote not based on ideas, but because many of them are just looking for free handouts, like those ridiculous and ugly looking women who believe that taxpayers like you and I should pay for their contraceptives and slutty behavior! 

 

Not that I ever believed any of them to begin with, but people are pretty damn stupid if they believe in Obama's countless lies and false promises yet again.

post #5 of 1062

If it happens, the Republicans will have pulled off the greatest con of the last hundred years.  Republicans NEVER supported Obama the way Democrats fell in line behind Bush after 9/11.  There was no effort for compromise.  It was party first, country second as evidenced by the debt ceiling debacle and an abject refusal to help pass a jobs bill.  

 

If Romney gets elected, America will indeed be truly fucked.  Kiss the rest of the middle class goodbye.  Kiss all the advances labor unions provided for the American worker over the last century goodbye.  Kiss the social safety net goodbye.  

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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post #6 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Then he's going to win without my vote.

 

 

Not trying to convince you to vote for Romney.  However, a vote for Gary Johnson is, in fact, a vote for Obama...at least if it happens in any great number.   That is the point I've asked you to acknowledge.  

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

 

Remember my thread about false flag attacks?

 

Yes.  

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

If it happens, the Republicans will have pulled off the greatest con of the last hundred years.  Republicans NEVER supported Obama the way Democrats fell in line behind Bush after 9/11.  There was no effort for compromise.  It was party first, country second as evidenced by the debt ceiling debacle and an abject refusal to help pass a jobs bill.  

 

 

 

Hmm...is that because Obama 1) Is a shitty leader and 2) Didn't have anything like 9/11 to demonstrate leadership and unify the country?  And please...spare me the "it's the Republicans fault" talking point.  The Dems controlled both houses and the Presidency for half of Presidency.  Instead of fixing the economy and dealing with the "unpatriotic" debt, he chose to ram through a pork-laden, useless, debt-driving stimulus bill that accomplished nothing, as well as a bloated, $2 Trillion healthcare bill that has accomplished next to nothing.  

 

 

Quote:

 

If Romney gets elected, America will indeed be truly fucked.  Kiss the rest of the middle class goodbye.  Kiss all the advances labor unions provided for the American worker over the last century goodbye.  Kiss the social safety net goodbye.  

 

LOL.  There is absolutely no support for any of those statements whatsoever.  Moreover, your lack of understanding re: the middle class is equal to that of the Presidents.  The middle class does not create a strong economy.  A strong economy creates the middle class.  Oh, by the way:  

 

 

Quote:
If Obama gets elected, America will indeed be truly fucked.  Kiss the rest Constitution and free enterprise system goodbye.  Kiss all the advances the private sector provided for the American worker over the last century goodbye.  Kiss the American Dream goodbye.

 

TFTFY.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #7 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I'm not going to call it for anybody just yet, but I do think that the election will be pretty close, and I also think that Obama is in deep shit and that the democrats are definitely beginning to panic.

 

Obama has practically nothing to run on, so since his record is not something that anybody can boast about, unless you were to count failures, all that the democrats have left is lying and demonizing Romney and using other tactics like playing the race card which appeals to their ignorant, racist base. The media is doing their best to cover up for the angry and failed president, but I don't believe that their tricks and lies will be as successful this time around. Unemployment is through the roof and Obama is anti-business, anti-success and there are more poor people and slaves to the system under Obama than ever before. 

 

And contrary to what many panicky and lying leftists claim, Clint Eastwood's act at the RNC was a tremendous success and I believe that it was very damaging to the dem's campaign. It's not so much that I am pro-Romney, I am merely anti-Obama, and the dude has had his chance and he's failed. It's time to kick the bum to the curb and give the next guy a shot. I truly believe that an actual empty chair as president would have been less damaging to the USA these past four years than Obama has been.

 

And in the worst case scenario that Obama were to win again, depending upon how many dead people and illegal aliens that the democrats register to vote, the good news is that I'll be ok for the next four years regardless, the people who will suffer the most, just like in the previous four years, will be his ignorant base of voters once again, which is largely comprised of minorities, welfare bums, racists and others who vote not based on ideas, but because many of them are just looking for free handouts, like those ridiculous and ugly looking women who believe that taxpayers like you and I should pay for their contraceptives and slutty behavior! 

 

Not that I ever believed any of them to begin with, but people are pretty damn stupid if they believe in Obama's countless lies and false promises yet again.

 

Yes, the country will indeed be stupid if it falls for Obama's promises once again.  However, one thing I'd take issue with is who got him elected.  He was elected by moderates.  The racists, entitlement class, hard left, et al will vote for Obama regardless.  He got elected because moderates broke for him, as well as women...while at the same time he held his own with white males.  Look at the numbers...they are all vastly different this time around.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #8 of 1062

Amen.

post #9 of 1062

If Romney wins WE ARE  especially seniors and the poor and also middle class. ALL IN DEEP SHIT! Four more years of Republicans horrible thought.
 

post #10 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

If it happens, the Republicans will have pulled off the greatest con of the last hundred years.  Republicans NEVER supported Obama the way Democrats fell in line behind Bush after 9/11.  There was no effort for compromise.  It was party first, country second as evidenced by the debt ceiling debacle and an abject refusal to help pass a jobs bill.  

 

If Romney gets elected, America will indeed be truly fucked.  Kiss the rest of the middle class goodbye.  Kiss all the advances labor unions provided for the American worker over the last century goodbye.  Kiss the social safety net goodbye.  

 

Yes, everyone is just too stupid to realize that perpetual 8+% unemployment is an incredible success. Better still Democrats have shown their willingness to lead by claiming to have been completely fooled by a man they claim is about as intelligent as a retarded monkey and thus have voted for wars as a party and  had their leader expand wars while collecting peace prizes.

 

They expanded spending to 25% of GDP and everyone is too stupid to see it is a revenue problem. It is the fault of the people who said we need to reduce spending to near historic high averages.

 

If Obama is re-elected, America will be completely fucked. All the people too smart to understand that the people who make the rules are the first to break them will be watching their lives be screwed over when they follow Democratic advice and borrow $100k for school and then have to live with Mom while working as a barista or bartender in the Obama economy. Then they can smell the freedom in the air as the government comes after them for money for their health care mandate and their student loans because the ONLY debt that cannot be discharged from a bankruptcy is government student loans.

 

We should all remember. You can fvck over the 1% with a bad debt. You can fvck over the big banks with bad debt. You can fvck over Wall St with bad debt. However you can never escape the government with a bad debt. They will come after you for your owed taxes, your owed health care mandate and your owed college debt all in the name of freedom.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #11 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

Republicans NEVER supported Obama the way Democrats fell in line behind Bush after 9/11.

 

Yes, because solidarity after a terrorist attack and supporting a corrupt stimulus bill that added trillions to the debt are exactly the same thing.

The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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post #12 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvfox View Post

If Romney wins WE ARE  especially seniors and the poor and also middle class. ALL IN DEEP SHIT! Four more years of Republicans horrible thought.
 

 

Make an argument.  Explain why we're screwed if Romney wins.  And explain what Obama is going to do in his second term that will be better. 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

 

Yes, because solidarity after a terrorist attack and supporting a corrupt stimulus bill that added trillions to the debt are exactly the same thing.

 

To BR, they certainly are.  Also, controlling Congress and the White House for two years doesn't matter.  It's the obstructionist GOP! 

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #13 of 1062

Your job may be at stake if Romney wins because he does not favor unions at all.Seniors like myself will have to get vouchers to try to get medicare and your Republican Government will give nothing away for free even when we deserve it all our lives.Obama is at least for the people and helped them with auto bailouts and keeping the country secure with killing OBL and ending the war in Iraq which Romney wants to start another war with Iran.I will be honest with you both have pros and cons but Romney has more cons.
 

post #14 of 1062

Bill Clinton doesn't have very good coattails nor a very good endorsement record. Clinton has been on the losing side, almost all the time - and in some instances on deep blue turf (Massachusetts, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania(twice), Michigan, New Mexico). It appears he basically is willing to show up when someone who the pundits declare is a sure thing is instead losing badly. He tries to shore up their support, but in the end they mostly still lose.

Bill+Clinton+Construction+Safety+Concerns+75g4vAC5fQzl.jpg

Hillary Clinton 2008 Democrat Presidential Primary. (Lost to Democrat Barack Obama)

27caucus.clinton.jpg

Terry McAuliffe 2009 VA Dem Gov Primary. (Lost to Democrat Craig Deeds)

Bill+Clinton+Creigh+Deeds+Bill+Clinton+Campaigns+tL8FUxtf37Ll.jpg

Craig Deeds 2009 VA Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Bob McDonell)
 

article_photo1.jpg_full_600.jpg

Jon Corzine 2009 NJ Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Chris Christie)

Bill-Clinton-001.jpg

Martha Coakley 2010 (Special Election) MA Dem U.S. Senate Nominee. (Lost to Republican Scott Brown)

clintonmeek.jpg

Kendrick Meeks 2010 FL Dem U.S. Senate Nominee. (Lost to Republican Marco Rubio)
 

101021NS-GK-SINKRALLY895_t607.jpg

Alex Sink 2010 FL Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Rick Scott)

102410_clintoncampaigning.jpg

Virg Bernero 2010 MI Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Rick Snyder)

5db0ad238ef3d5dbc48740ba977a753f_1M.png

Ted Strickland 2010 OH Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican John Kasich)

0.jpg

Mike McWherter 2010 TN Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Bill Haslam)

bill-clinton-cincinnati-lee-fisherjpg-f5aecdebc3ee4a17_large.jpg

Lee Fisher 2010 OH Dem U.S. Senate Nominee. (Lost to Republican Rob Portman)
 

101102KySenate.aurora_standalone.prod_affiliate.79.jpg

Jack Conway 2010 KY Dem U.S. Senate Nominee. (Lost to Republican Rand Paul)

20101029_inq_senate29-a.JPG

Joe Sestak 2010 PA Dem U.S. Senate Nominee. (Lost to Republican Pat Toomey)
 

03-29-25_onorato-and-clinton_420.jpg

Dan Onorato 2010 PA Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Tom Corbett)
 

0915reidclin4_t653.JPG?214bc4f9d9bd7c08c7d0f6599bb3328710e01e7b

Rory Reid 2010 NV Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Brian Sandoval)

e7f52ca9c3d3951eba5618d19debd2bf_1M.png

Diane Denish 2010 NM Dem Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Susana Martinez)
 

01clinton-1-blog480.jpg

Tom Barrett 2012 (Recall) WI Den Gov Nominee. (Lost to Republican Scott Walker)


 

 

I suspect this trend will continue in 2012.lol.gif

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #15 of 1062

Waits for the new favorite accusation: "cherry picking" lol.gif

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #16 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

Waits for the new favorite accusation: "cherry picking" lol.gif

 



Of course but in all seriousness the magnitude of many of those losses cannot be overstated and many were coming from blue states, blue incumbents or just even attempting to come from Clinton himself. Clearly Hillary was running as co-president and claiming her husband's record as her own. The result, a loss. Diane Denish was the Lt. Gov of New Mexico running after Bill Richardson, a Democrat and also Clinton cabinet member. She was groomed for the job but lost. Jon Corzine losing the union mecca of New Jersey to Chris Christie and Scott Brown taking the old Kennedy seat.

 

Is it possible a Clinton speech and endorsement cannot term a red district, county or state into a Democratic win, I'd buy that premise. However to say that a Clinton endorsement cannot even deliver Massachusetts?? That's really a bit sad.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #17 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvfox View Post

Your job may be at stake if Romney wins because he does not favor unions at all.Seniors like myself will have to get vouchers to try to get medicare and your Republican Government will give nothing away for free even when we deserve it all our lives.Obama is at least for the people and helped them with auto bailouts and keeping the country secure with killing OBL and ending the war in Iraq which Romney wants to start another war with Iran.I will be honest with you both have pros and cons but Romney has more cons.
 

 

1.  My job security has little to do with Romney "favoring" unions.  Even if unions were outlawed, it would simply lead to a system where I could get paid based on my performance, instead of my seniority and education levels.   Romney is referring to national unions anyway, which are a nightmare. 

 

2.  Lie.  Even if Ryan's plan was adopted wholesale, nothing would change for anyone over 55.  Period.  

 

3.  No one deserves anything for "free."  Ever.  Your medicare is not free, nor is your social security.  In fact, "free" doesn't exist.  Ever.  

 

4.  The auto bailouts are costing taxpayers tens of billions.  We're losing $35 Billion+ on the GM takeover alone.  What should have happened is regular Chapter 11 bankruptcy.  They would have reorganized into a profitable company.    Instead, the secured bondholders got screwed, the Obama got to personally fire the CEO.   Then he gave the company to the UAW.   And no, they would not have gone out of business.  This shows you don't understand what bankruptcy even means. 

 

5.  The war in Iraq ending was pre-determined by the Bush Administration.  What Obama did was fail to negotiate a peacekeeping/security force.  He also did not follow a single military recommendation with regard to troop levels in Afghanistan.  He spiked the football with OBL, and his administration leaked security secrets to boot.   We're less secure.  Much less secure.

 

 

Romney's "cons" don't even begin to approach Obama's.  There is absolutely no case whatsoever to reelect this man.  None.  The only thing they've got left is to convince people like you that Romney hates the middle class and wants to steal your medicare.  Hook, line and sinker for you, apparently.

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #18 of 1062

SDW. It's going to be the guy giving a speech right now. That ain't Romney. However just keeping track of how many times you say stuff like this for future reference. ( wink if I could )

 

 

 

Quote:
 The President's approval rating is in the low forties.

 

 Approval rating 45% and holding steady.

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

 

The thing you're missing here is that you continue to use historical data to support your idea. This election and these times aren't anywhere near normal so using historical data as your cornerstone is a big mistake.

 

Here's a good opinion piece that you won't like : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/deepak-chopra/obamas-chances-in-2012-a-_b_1208751.html


Edited by jimmac - 9/6/12 at 8:22pm
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #19 of 1062

Bite your tongue when you say this plastic character will win the election. HELL NO!
 

post #20 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

SDW. It's going to be the guy giving a speech right now. That ain't Romney. However just keeping track of how many times you say stuff like this for future reference. ( wink if I could )

 

 

 

 

 Approval rating 45% and holding steady.

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

 

The thing you're missing here is that you continue to use historical data to support your idea. This election and these times aren't anywhere near normal so using historical data as your cornerstone is a big mistake.

 

Here's a good opinion piece that you won't like : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/deepak-chopra/obamas-chances-in-2012-a-_b_1208751.html

 

So your response to my detailed, 21 point argument is that the President's approval rating is 45%, not 43%?   Care to respond to the other 20 reasons?  

 

I do thank you for at least labeling your link as an opinion.  By the way, it's not accurate to say "SDW doesn't like it."  In fact, I don't feel one way or the other about it.  It matters not.  Why?  Because first, it's by Deepak Chopra.  Yes, Deepak Chopra.  He's entitled to his opinion, but not exactly a credible source on political matters.  Secondly, his argument is entirely anecdotal and not supported by any factual data.  Anecdotal evidence is fine, but he literally is just throwing out some vague and entirely academic false dilemmas out there (reason vs. unreason, tolerance vs. intolerance).  This is not an argument...at least, not a good one.  Finally, he sticks ti the standard media talking points about Republicans being a bunch of poor-hating, science-rejecting, environment-destroying racists.  Shocker.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #21 of 1062

I haven't got time to go through each point right now, but I think this election will most likely be won by Obama. 

 

Gallup currently has Obama's approval rating at 49% and disapproval at 45%. That's as high as it was in December of the year he took office, and he may get a boost from the convention too- http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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post #22 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

 

 

 

2.  The President's approval rating is in the low forties.  Anything less than 49% spells trouble, historically speaking.  

 

 

How does 52% job approval sound? lol.gif

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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post #23 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

How does 52% job approval sound? lol.gif

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

 

Will be interesting to see that number in 3-4 days.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #24 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvfox View Post

You are a selfish person who I see as somewhat a bigot if say the minorities who are unemployed should not get welfare or food stamps if they deserve it.Stop putting on a facade that you like everyone in reality you do not.Romney I repeat is for the elite class which i guess you are part of.

Nobody deserves anything for free, not minorities, not anybody. People should be put to work if they're receiving public assistance. I can think of plenty of jobs that welfare peeps and other lazy people can do. 

post #25 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

 

Will be interesting to see that number in 3-4 days.

Yeah, it could still rise higher. Often people share their positive perspectives with friends and family, further extending the reach of the impact. Mind you a 7% increase over the course of 3 days is certainly worth celebrating, especially when Romney had no gains at all from his convention! 

We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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We are nurturing a nightmare that will haunt our children, and kill theirs.
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post #26 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Yeah, it could still rise higher.

 

Yes. It could. It could go lower also. But then these poll numbers don't have the latest economic news baked into them.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Mind you a 7% increase over the course of 3 days is certainly worth celebrating,

 

Why? For whom?

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post #27 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

 

Yes. It could. It could go lower also. But then these poll numbers don't have the latest economic news baked into them.

 

 

 

Why? For whom?

The great thing about the DNC was people who watched it won't necessarily just abandon all hope in Obama just because the job growth numbers weren't higher. They really got their message across well. We may see a fall in a few days but it won't be as much as it would have been had this convention not taken place. A lot of people are looking at the next four years now, and Obama was pretty humble about it too, which went a long way. I think that helped to bind the voters to him.

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post #28 of 1062
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Originally Posted by marvfox View Post

You are a selfish person who I see as somewhat a bigot if say the minorities who are unemployed should not get welfare or food stamps if they deserve it.

While helping out our fellow man is noble, there are cases of major abuse in the welfare system. Some folks are using it to avoid working at all and that needs to stop. Able bodied people should not be allowed to spend EBT on beer and cigarettes and to not try to get a job. If unemployment can have rules about how you have to at least be trying to get a job, why can't welfare. And why can't systems be set up to keep folks from using food stamps on whatever, selling them for cash and such.

Perhaps if we eliminate the means to abuse the system folks will stop screaming to just bring it to a full stop.

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post #29 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

 

Will be interesting to see that number in 3-4 days.

Yeah, it could still rise higher. Often people share their positive perspectives with friends and family, further extending the reach of the impact. Mind you a 7% increase over the course of 3 days is certainly worth celebrating, especially when Romney had no gains at all from his convention! 

 

There will likely be little to no gain for Obama out of this convention. I'm sure the media will find some way to create a bounce because those of us that follow the polls have already noted that the 2010 polls were all off, the metapoll aggregators and poll analysts have almost all been purchased by Democratic media interests, and when we can get to the raw numbers, they've been horrible all year. (Examples polls that are +7 to 9 points Democrats often show Obama +2 points on Romney)

 

The biggest change won't come from those of us who are plugged in or involved in politics. It will come from those who largely vote their gut or their pocketbook. This speech was easy to like. Obama is easy to like. The speech was basically straight up recycled from 2008. He's going to cut the deficit in half, give us a peace dividend, create millions of new jobs with green energy, etc.

 

The problem is that we've had him for four years already and those promises ring hollow now. The number of viewers for the Democratic convention are down by as much as 50%. Obama isn't historic anymore. He is a guy who wants to be reelected and who has not been able to move the needle enough in economic terms during his first term. 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

The great thing about the DNC was people who watched it won't necessarily just abandon all hope in Obama just because the job growth numbers weren't higher. They really got their message across well. We may see a fall in a few days but it won't be as much as it would have been had this convention not taken place. A lot of people are looking at the next four years now, and Obama was pretty humble about it too, which went a long way. I think that helped to bind the voters to him.

 

Of course they won't abandon hope for him. They never did abandon him. The same people that will be cause Obama to not be reelected will be the same group that abandoned the GOP in 2006. They don't think deeply about it. No opinion piece really hits them. They largely go by feel and in 2006 it was a bit too much spending, a bit too little growth, a war that had gone on too long and someone new promising to fix it all. Democrats ran on bringing the troops home, lowering spending through peace dividends, getting oil men out of office to lower the price of gas, etc.

 

Obama is going to have literally millions of people who have written him off. They wrote off his party in 2010 in the House. The rest will be coming this fall.

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post #30 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

SDW. It's going to be the guy giving a speech right now. That ain't Romney. However just keeping track of how many times you say stuff like this for future reference. ( wink if I could )

 

 

 

 

 Approval rating 45% and holding steady.

 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

 

The thing you're missing here is that you continue to use historical data to support your idea. This election and these times aren't anywhere near normal so using historical data as your cornerstone is a big mistake.

 

Here's a good opinion piece that you won't like : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/deepak-chopra/obamas-chances-in-2012-a-_b_1208751.html

 

So your response to my detailed, 21 point argument is that the President's approval rating is 45%, not 43%?   Care to respond to the other 20 reasons?  

 

I do thank you for at least labeling your link as an opinion.  By the way, it's not accurate to say "SDW doesn't like it."  In fact, I don't feel one way or the other about it.  It matters not.  Why?  Because first, it's by Deepak Chopra.  Yes, Deepak Chopra.  He's entitled to his opinion, but not exactly a credible source on political matters.  Secondly, his argument is entirely anecdotal and not supported by any factual data.  Anecdotal evidence is fine, but he literally is just throwing out some vague and entirely academic false dilemmas out there (reason vs. unreason, tolerance vs. intolerance).  This is not an argument...at least, not a good one.  Finally, he sticks ti the standard media talking points about Republicans being a bunch of poor-hating, science-rejecting, environment-destroying racists.  Shocker.  

Well good luck with all of that. Do I think the election will be close? Yes most definitely. Will Mr. Romney and Mr. Paul Ryan AKA ( death to medicare ) be in the Whitehouse next? I really don't think so. If I'm right SDW I'll try to explain again how these times we're in are different and historical stats don't apply as much as they usually would.

Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #31 of 1062

Looks like this campaign is already taking a heavy toll on Romney. In his acceptance speech he looked drained, weak and teary. I wonder how he'll cope with the increasing pressure of the campaign compared to his much younger and healthier rival.

 

Here's some photos Mother Jones have compiled of Romney's pains, he really looks quite depressed. I almost feel sorry for him-

 

romney21-final.jpgromney9-final.jpgromney14.jpgromney3-final.jpg

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post #32 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Looks like this campaign is already taking a heavy toll on Romney. In his acceptance speech he looked drained, weak and teary. I wonder how he'll cope with the increasing pressure of the campaign compared to his much younger and healthier rival.

 

Interesting. When you gave both of them their complete physicals, did you enjoy it more when you had Obama turn his head and cough?

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Here's some photos Mother Jones have compiled of Romney's pains, he really looks quite depressed. I almost feel sorry for him-

 

Seriously, I'm really curious: How much?

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post #33 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

 

Interesting. When you gave both of them their complete physicals, did you enjoy it more when you had Obama turn his head and cough?

 

 

 

Seriously, I'm really curious: How much?

You don't need to be a doctor to see that Romney's struggling with something. I hope he picks himself up because Obama needs to win this election on his merits, not because his opponent couldn't take the strain of it all.That just lessens his victory. Perhaps Obama's bounce from the convention will be a wake up call for Romney and he'll pull himself back together again? I sure hope so, for Obama's sake as much as his.

 

 

Just to prove I'm not bias. Here's Biden who's actually older than Romney is-

 

 

Lindsey Graham...doing his best Jack-Nicholson-face.Joe Biden, Barack Obama Pictures & Photos

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post #34 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

You don't need to be a doctor to see that Romney's struggling with something.

 

And all those years so many doctors wasted going to medical school when they could have just made superficial diagnosis from photographs.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

I hope he picks himself up because Obama needs to win this election on his merits

 

If Obama wins it will not be on his merits.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Perhaps Obama's bounce from the convention will be a wake up call for Romney and he'll pull himself back together again? I sure hope so, for Obama's sake as much as his.

 

You're priceless! lol.gif

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Just to prove I'm not bias. Here's Biden who's actually older than Romney is-

 

How does showing pictures of Biden prove you're not biased?

 

Again though...I'm really curious: How much?

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post #35 of 1062

Nice photos, Hands.  Just called my wife in for a peek; she worked in personnel at a large company for over a decade.

 

Mitt looks old, tired and lacking in confidence, and looks like he could be having problems at home of some sort.  He doesn't seem satisfied with his life.  He also looks frustrated, as if he can't clear something.  If he came for an interview, she would probe his family life.  He's proud, but lacking in humility and humor.

 

Joe looks healthy and happy.  He exudes confidence. Proud, but humble and with humor.

 

That is just on these photos.  Of course, if you pick and choose well enough, most people show a variety of emotive states over even a brief period of time.  With a different set, you could possibly flip the two impressions.  That's why an interview is important. 

 

Maybe it's just me, but I think she's a good judge of character.  But then, I'm one of those dangerous liberals.  

- - - - -

 

Perhaps Mittens knew what the polls would say...

 

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/09/obama-expands-lead-in-three-tracking-polls/1#.UEwEJkJK5JM

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html


Edited by Bergermeister - 9/8/12 at 11:22pm

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #36 of 1062

Isn't this just precious. We have a couple of liberal Democrats doing superficial analysis of a guy they don't like and coming up with negative conclusions.

 

Brilliant.

 

lol.gif

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post #37 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Nice photos, Hands.  Just called my wife in for a peek; she worked in personnel at a large company for over a decade.

 

Mitt looks old, tired and lacking in confidence, and looks like he could be having problems at home of some sort.  He doesn't seem satisfied with his life.  He also looks frustrated, as if he can't clear something.  If he came for an interview, she would probe his family life.  He's proud, but lacking in humility and humor.

 

Joe looks healthy and happy.  He exudes confidence. Proud, but humble and with humor.

 

That is just on these photos.  Of course, if you pick and choose well enough, most people show a variety of emotive states over even a brief period of time.  With a different set, you could possibly flip the two impressions.  That's why an interview is important. 

 

Maybe it's just me, but I think she's a good judge of character.  But then, I'm one of those dangerous liberals.  

- - - - -

 

Perhaps Mittens knew what the polls would say...

 

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/09/obama-expands-lead-in-three-tracking-polls/1#.UEwEJkJK5JM

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html

It's hard to know why he looks so despondent. Certainly he's failed to invigorate anyone, even his own party are luke warm about him at best. I guess that could cause a deep sense of rejection, enough to bring on a bout of depression. 

 

Here's some more pics, all pointing to the same conclusions-

 

MittRomneySad.jpeg

Elections, Mitt, Romney, 2012MittRomneyLookingAngry.bmp

SadRomney2.jpg

058e396e-bb1c-42ae-b2a6-8b5b0844b033HiRes.JPGarticle-2150410-134EE19A000005DC-435_634x493.jpg7189338.bin?size=620x400sjoe+biden2.jpg
 
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post #38 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

Isn't this just precious. We have a couple of liberal Democrats doing superficial analysis of a guy they don't like and coming up with negative conclusions.

 

Brilliant.

 

lol.gif

So you think Romney's just fine do you? He can certainly seem it at times, but he's showing increasing signs of acute stress, and that will damage his chances greatly. No one, not even Repubs, want a president who's mentally troubled, for one it's a sign of weakness to our foes abroad. 

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post #39 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

So you think Romney's just fine do you?

 

I have no idea. I'm not in a position to make that evaluation.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

He can certainly seem it at times, but he's showing increasing signs of acute stress, and that will damage his chances greatly. No one, not even Repubs, want a president who's mentally troubled, for one it's a sign of weakness to our foes abroad. 

 

Again...will you tell me? How much?

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post #40 of 1062
Nate Silver isn't finding such a tide favoring Romney, and his calls seem to be more accurate than most projections.
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