Haven't read all the posts, but even with Obama's poor performance in the first debate, he's still going to win, assuming he wins Florida.
My analysis says that Obama will get 304 electoral votes, well above the 270 he needs to win even if every toss-up state goes to Romney. Electoral-Vote.com claims Obama will get 319, but I'm not convinced of that yet.
Here's my analysis. Feel free to poke holes:
States with 18 or more electoral votes (CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA, OH) which comprise a total of 209: I give them all to Obama except for Texas. (Obviously, if Obama should lose Florida and/or Pennsylvania, that changes the equation.) That gives Obama 171 and Romney 38. Many feel Ohio is actually up in the air. So if Obama doesn't get Ohio, it's Obama 153 to Romney's 56.
States with 10-16 electoral votes (GA, MI, NC, NJ, VA, WA, AZ, IN, MA, TN, MD, MN, MO, WI) which comprises 170: Obama gets 83: MI, NJ, WA, MA, MD, MN and WI. Romney definitely gets 59. NC and VA are undecided. If Romney wins those, it's Obama 83 and Romney 87. If Obama wins both, it's Obama 111, Romney 59.)
States with 9 or fewer electoral votes (all the rest) which comprises 161: Obama gets 50 (CT, OR, NV, NM, HI, ME, NH, RI, DC, DE, VT). Romney gets all the rest with the possible exceptions of Colorado and Iowa (15). If Romney wins both those states, that would add 109 to his total.
Romney has to win both Pennsylvania and Ohio (if he doesn't win Florida) AND with at least two of the four "undecided" states to win. That's a tall order. Once again, Florida is the key to the election.
Totals:
Obama (pretty definite): 304
Romney (definite): 191
Undecided: 43 (NC, VA, CO, IA)
If Obama loses Ohio, he still wins, even if Romney gets all the undecided votes:
Obama (pretty definite): 286
Romney (definite): 209
Undecided: 43 (NC, VA, CO, IA)
If Obama wins Florida, but loses PA and OH, it's a tossup. Either candidate would need more than half of the undecided votes:
Obama (pretty definite): 248
Romney (definite): 247
Undecided: 43 (NC, VA, CO, IA)