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Mitt Romney is Going to Win - Page 14

post #521 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

If Mitt wins this election, it is only because objective reality was murdered.

 

Don't be absurd.  The majority of the people don't vote either on facts or on issues as a whole because few people take the time to really understand the issues.   How many people still read a news-paper or news weekly?   

 

That's why you have voters screaming at town-halls that they don't want a government-controlled health care system yet also scream, "keep your hands off my Medicare".     It's why half the country is convinced that you can fight two wars, reduce taxes and not touch social security for current retirees, yet still reduce the deficit.   It's why people believe that somehow, with a different President or different Party in charge, suddenly manufacturing jobs are going to return to the U.S.     Or that any President's policies are going to find lots of well-paying jobs for totally unskilled people.   We (and our politicians) live in a fantasy world.   

 

I believe I've seen reports that 50% of citizens cannot name the Vice-President and more than 70% can't name the Speaker of the House.    I just saw a report that claimed that 6% of the country believes that Lee Harvey Oswald killed Abraham Lincoln.      We're a nation of idiots.    When Jay Leno goes "Jaywalking" (and although I'm sure they edit out the unfunny people who actually know something), you'll find people who can't tell you who we fought in World War II or the century in which the Civil War was fought.     He finds people who can tell you every obscure fact about Lady Gaga and are wearing the very latest fashions and have the latest phone, but they don't know how many states there are in the U.S. (never mind actually naming them).     

 

As for independents,  can one claim to have not made up their mind yet when the candidates have such opposite view on every issue?    The only people who haven't made up their mind yet are people who vote on personality and image and not on the issues.    It seems to me that if it weren't for people who have no idea what the issues are and where the candidates truly stand, elections would actually be decided as soon as the primaries are over.    

 

The majority of people vote on three word headlines, imaging, conventional wisdom and "feelings".   Gore didn't lose on the issues (actually Gore won the popular vote, so he didn't really lose at all), he lost because the media decided he was a wimp.    If Obama loses, it won't be because of the issues or the reality of his performance in office, it will be because of his weakness in the first debate, since he was way ahead before that debate.    

 

Furthermore, a great many people vote against their own self-interest (and not in the name of doing what's right for the country either).     That's why middle-class voters vote for Republicans who reduce taxes on the rich by a great deal and reduce taxes on the middle-class by an infinitesimal amount and Wall Street generally hates Obama in spite of the fact that he continued Bush's bailouts and the DJIA was 8776 a few days before Obama took office and is over 13,000 today.   

post #522 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Mittens is going to win!  

 

Yep, with T-shirts like these:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/13/romney-supporter-wears-put-the-white-back-in-the-white-house-campaign-event-ohio_n_1963583.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

 

 

Pretty obviously printed.  I wonder if it is being sold?  Hope not.
 

 

Is this is the image of the Republicans (in addition to Bush and a love of war) held around the world?

Big deal. It's one guy wearing a t-shirt.

 

I'm surprised that there aren't more, since Obama is one of the most racially divisive Presidents ever, and I get a chuckle from seeing something that offends racist Obama supporters. Many people voted for Obama solely because he's black, and that right there is pretty damn racist. Obama supporters even make songs like "My President is black", and some of them even gladly admit that they voted for him because he's black. If anybody has made race an issue, it's Obama and his supporters. Obama and the Democrats have set blacks back decades, IMO.

 

Obama is going to be kicked to the curb, not because he's black (or 50% black), but because he and his policies suck. I don't believe in affirmative action when it comes to choosing a President. 

post #523 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

 

Don't be absurd.  The majority of the people don't vote either on facts or on issues as a whole because few people take the time to really understand the issues.   How many people still read a news-paper or news weekly?   

 

That's why you have voters screaming at town-halls that they don't want a government-controlled health care system yet also scream, "keep your hands off my Medicare".     It's why half the country is convinced that you can fight two wars, reduce taxes and not touch social security for current retirees, yet still reduce the deficit.   It's why people believe that somehow, with a different President or different Party in charge, suddenly manufacturing jobs are going to return to the U.S.     Or that any President's policies are going to find lots of well-paying jobs for totally unskilled people.   We (and our politicians) live in a fantasy world.   

 

I believe I've seen reports that 50% of citizens cannot name the Vice-President and more than 70% can't name the Speaker of the House.    I just saw a report that claimed that 6% of the country believes that Lee Harvey Oswald killed Abraham Lincoln.      We're a nation of idiots.    When Jay Leno goes "Jaywalking" (and although I'm sure they edit out the unfunny people who actually know something), you'll find people who can't tell you who we fought in World War II or the century in which the Civil War was fought.     He finds people who can tell you every obscure fact about Lady Gaga and are wearing the very latest fashions and have the latest phone, but they don't know how many states there are in the U.S. (never mind actually naming them).     

The ignorance on display by some people in the country is amazing, and scary. Was that last bit about how many states a dig at Obama having been in 57 states?


As for independents,  can one claim to have not made up their mind yet when the candidates have such opposite view on every issue?    The only people who haven't made up their mind yet are people who vote on personality and image and not on the issues.    It seems to me that if it weren't for people who have no idea what the issues are and where the candidates truly stand, elections would actually be decided as soon as the primaries are over.    

 

I'm afraid that you may be correct, but I'm hopeful you're wrong here. My hope is that many independents/undecideds are simply stuck with conflicting values. For instance, they may prefer Obama in terms of ObamaCare but disagree with him on gay marriage. Or they may prefer Romney's tax plan but believe that Obama has done good with the economy and saved the US auto industry. I think there are definitely areas where some voters are caught between conflicting ideologies. The other aspect is that I think a lot of voters have been inundated with all the negative ads painting Romney out to be some kind of monster but really don't like Obama and his policies so they are waiting to see if something comes out to push them toward one or the other.

 The majority of people vote on three word headlines, imaging, conventional wisdom and "feelings".   Gore didn't lose on the issues (actually Gore won the popular vote, so he didn't really lose at all), he lost because the media decided he was a wimp.    If Obama loses, it won't be because of the issues or the reality of his performance in office, it will be because of his weakness in the first debate, since he was way ahead before that debate.    

 

Furthermore, a great many people vote against their own self-interest (and not in the name of doing what's right for the country either).     That's why middle-class voters vote for Republicans who reduce taxes on the rich by a great deal and reduce taxes on the middle-class by an infinitesimal amount and Wall Street generally hates Obama in spite of the fact that he continued Bush's bailouts and the DJIA was 8776 a few days before Obama took office and is over 13,000 today.   

I disagree with your assessment of middle class voters voting Republican.  My take on that is simply that middle class voters understand that poor people don't provide them with good jobs.  Tax reductions on the rich, especially small businesses that file as individuals, benefit the middle class with more job opportunities and/or job security.  Of course Democrats will say that the rich are doing just fine, but hitting a small business making say $500k per year in income with a 5% tax hike just eliminated at least one part-time job.  Take that up to a small business making $1M and you're now up to eliminating at least 1 middle class full time job.

post #524 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Mittens is going to win!  

Yep, with T-shirts like these:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/13/romney-supporter-wears-put-the-white-back-in-the-white-house-campaign-event-ohio_n_1963583.html?utm_hp_ref=politics


Pretty obviously printed.  I wonder if it is being sold?  Hope not.
 

Is this is the image of the Republicans (in addition to Bush and a love of war) held around the world?
Well, how could he win when Obama has supporters like this one...

http://instagram.com/p/QYGWYpP9Pd/

From one extreme to another. But this one actually has followers whereas the idiot you are pointing out is just an idiot in a shirt and not a celebrity.
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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post #525 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Mittens is going to win!  

 

Yep, with T-shirts like these:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/13/romney-supporter-wears-put-the-white-back-in-the-white-house-campaign-event-ohio_n_1963583.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

 

 

Pretty obviously printed.  I wonder if it is being sold?  Hope not.
 

 

Is this is the image of the Republicans (in addition to Bush and a love of war) held around the world?

 

Clearly a false-flag operation. A unnamed man that no one can identify with a Romney sticker added to the top of a shirt not associated in any form or fashion with the campaign and BTW, he is the only person in the entire crowd not wearing a coat.

 

Obama supporters in addition to issuing death threats and calls for riots are now trying to create a climate of hate to justify their losing candidate.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #526 of 1062

Ross Perot Endorses

Quote:

"President Obama promised a great deal. He has had his chance," Perot wrote. "The results are visible for all to see. It is time for a new beginning. It is time for Mitt Romney."

 

Complaining of Obama's policy writ large, Perot echoed the GOP challenger's campaign slogan, writing that America "can't afford four more years in which debt mushrooms out of control, our government grows and our military is weakened."

 

Going on to praise Romney's conservative principles as well as his record as governor of Massachusetts, Perot argues that the former Bain Capital CEO would address and rectify the current president's shortcomings.

 

"He has spent most of his career in the private sector. He understands how jobs are created. He understands how government can get in the way of that process," Perot writes. "As a president, he would do what this administration has been unable to do, which is reform our federal government, pare it back and—most critically—keep it from acting as a brake on economic growth."

 

The endorsement may come as a surprise to some. In recent weeks, Perot went on record as disapproving of both candidates' negligence of an impending "fiscal cliff" and the country's massive debt. In an interview with USA Today, he said, "Nobody that's running really talks about it, about what we have to do and why we have to do it. They would prefer not to have it discussed."

 

 

An endorsement worth giving some thought and consideration to with regard to our next president.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #527 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Ross Perot Endorses

 

 

An endorsement worth giving some thought and consideration to with regard to our next president.

 

I find that surprising.  Perot wasn't exactly a Republican.  In fact, back in 1992 he leaned more Democratic in many ways.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #528 of 1062

As he came up in this thread, thought I'd link this here.

 

Nate Silver was interviewed by Jon Stewart.

 

http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/wed-october-17-2012-nate-silver

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #529 of 1062

Classy.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/17/tagg-romney-obama_n_1976186.html

 

 

Hope he got a visit from the Secret Service.


Edited by Bergermeister - 10/18/12 at 6:59am

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #530 of 1062

Romney Derangement Syndrome. I think we have some sufferers here.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #531 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Classy.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/17/tagg-romney-obama_n_1976186.html

 

 

Hope he got a visit from the Secret Service.

 

So good to see that you're sticking to the substantive issues.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #532 of 1062
Thread Starter 

The Clintons Know Obama Will Lose.  They Want Him to Lose.  

 

 

1.  Hillary tries to stop the buck, knowing full well such a move will piss off women and make the President look weak.  

 

2.  Bill says "when Obama looked into that man's eyes, I thought he [Obama] was going to cry."    

 

Now at first, you might say "Awww come on SDW.  The Big Dog is just trying to play on Obama's strengths, show that he had a personal connection".   But...really?  You don't say the President of the United States was "about to cry" even in that context.  At best it looks like a forced attempt to show empathy.  At worst, it looks weak.  People don't want a crying President, anyway.  They want a leader.  This is exactly what the polls are showing now, particularly with women.  They want someone to fix this mess, and they know Romney is much better qualified to do it.  

 

These are just two events in recent months that make it clear:  The Clintons don't want Obama to win.  It would be much harder for Hillary to run for President in 2016 if Obama won, because a Democrat would have held the office for the last 8 years.   She can't wait until 2020, because she'd be too old.  And the Clinton's never liked Obama to begin with.  He came out of nowhere in 2008 in the election that was supposed to be Hillary's.  Bill said "I think he played the race card on her."   He also said "10 years ago this guy would be getting us coffee."   Clinton does not think Obama has a clue about how to be President, hence the backhanded compliments from the convention speech.  "No President could have fixed this" and comparisons to his Presidency, when the economy was actually good.  Are you kidding?  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #533 of 1062
Thread Starter 

Whoopi Goldberg plays the Mormon card (and fails spectacularly).  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #534 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

Whoopi Goldberg plays the Mormon card (and fails spectacularly).  

Why should going out and trying to convert people to your religion exempt you from military service?  

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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post #535 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

Why should going out and trying to convert people to your religion exempt you from military service?  

Good question. I'm sure we could debate that. Of course, it has nothing to so with the point, which is that Goldberg was factually wrong. She asked it that way to be derogatory (first to point out Romney didn't serve, then to raise the issue if his specific religion). She even framed it in such a way to make Mormon beliefs seem out of the mainstream of people who believe by asking "is that against your religion?" Was that a...wait for it...dog whistle? 1wink.gif
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #536 of 1062

The caring people of America, in this case those wonderful supporters of Ryan.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/soup-kitchen-paul-ryan-photo-donor_n_1980541.html

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #537 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

Why should going out and trying to convert people to your religion exempt you from military service?  

 

 

There are many non-combat positions in the military.

 

Of course, we shall have to divert from that...


Edited by Bergermeister - 10/19/12 at 5:14am

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #538 of 1062

It should not. We all should serve our country and not be protected against any religion at all.This is a cop out. The Mormons are great in doing this.
 

post #539 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvfox View Post

It should not. We all should serve our country and not be protected against any religion at all.This is a cop out. The Mormons are great in doing this.

To serve your country you must fight against the real overlords raping America blind and sore. The corporations. Don't get caught up in this presidential schadenfreude. As entertaining as it is.

Mormonism challenging our basic human sensibilities? Try Islam.
post #540 of 1062

@ SDW,

 

Somewhere you posted about Gallup showing a large lead with likely voters. I think you might want to read this before cracking open the Champagne-

 

 

According to Real Clear Politics, Mitt Romney is, on average, up by one point in the polls. According to both Nate Silver and InTrade, President Obama has a better-than-60-percent chance of winning the election. I think it’s fair to say that the election is, for the moment, close.

But not according to Gallup. Their seven-day tracking poll shows Romney up by seven points — yes, seven — with likely voters. But he’s only up by one point with registered voters.

It gets weirder: Dig into the poll, and you’ll find that in the most recent internals they’ve put on their Web site  — which track from 10/9-10/15  — Obama is winning the West (+6), the East (+4), and the Midwest (+4). The only region he’s losing is the South. But he’s losing the South, among likely voters, by 22 points. That’s enough, in Gallup’s poll, for him to be behind in the national vote. But it’s hard to see how that puts him behind in the electoral college.

If Gallup is right, then that looks to me like we’re headed for an electoral college/popular vote split. Last night, I spoke with Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup, to ask him if I was missing something. He said I wasn’t. “That’s certainly what it looks like,” he says.

But Newport was cautious in interpreting his numbers. Gallup’s poll cheered Romney supporters because it showed Romney gaining ground even after the second debate. But Newport didn’t see it like that. Remember, he warned, it’s a seven-day poll. “I think we’re still seeing leftover positive support for Romney and I don’t think we’re seeing impact yet from the second debate,” he says. 

What you think is going on in the race depends on whether you think the electorate will ultimately look more like Gallup’s “likely voter” model, where the race is a blowout, or all registered voters, where it’s a dead heat. So I asked Newport to explain the likely voter model to me. 

“The likely voters model takes into account changes in the response to questions about how closely they’re following and how enthusiastic they are,” he said. “It’s not just capturing underlying movement  — it’s representing changes in enthusiasm.”

That sounds, I replied, like a model that would tend to overstate the effects of major events that favored one candidate or the other, as their supporters would grow temporarily more enthusiastic and attentive, while the other side would grow temporarily disillusioned. Newport agreed. “I wouldn’t use the word ‘overstate,’ ” he said. “But it would be very sensitive to changes in enthusiasm. The Denver debate clearly had an impact on Romney’s people. I think your insight is correct there. Whether we see a dulling of that over the next several days is what I want to see.” 

~http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/19/about-that-gallup-poll-is-romney-really-up-by-7-and-will-obama-win-the-election-anyway/

 

"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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post #541 of 1062
Romney has made up some ground. Like Australia this election is going to be real 50-50.

As Steve Jobs said: "It's no longer about Democrat or Republican... it's about constructive or destructive".

Romney's debate performance so far after two rounds is pretty good. Any common sense person would say however true, his comments are reasonable. However true.
post #542 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by sr2012 View Post

As Steve Jobs said: "It's no longer about Democrat or Republican... it's about constructive or destructive".

 

Actually, it has always been about constructive or destructive. The problem is that most who are in or enter politics (D and R) are on the destructive side and about 90% of what the state does is on the destructive vs. constructive or productive side of things. But politicians have cleverly divided the populous into seemingly different factions in order to conquer the country.

 

It is not about Left vs. Right or Democrat vs. Republican it is about the elite political establishment (Left and Right and Democrat and Republican) vs. liberty.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #543 of 1062
Obama on Libya. Not bad. Will get the centrists and near-right.

Mitt on Libya. Nice common sense argument.

Assasination of American ambassador is no joke.
post #544 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

Actually, it has always been about constructive or destructive. The problem is that most who are in or enter politics (D and R) are on the destructive side and about 90% of what the state does is on the destructive vs. constructive or productive side of things. But politicians have cleverly divided the populous into seemingly different factions in order to conquer the country.

It is not about Left vs. Right or Democrat vs. Republican it is about the elite political establishment (Left and Right and Democrat and Republican) vs. liberty.

True dat. You're starting to make some sense.
post #545 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by sr2012 View Post

You're starting to make some sense.

 

lol.gif Faint praise coming from you. 

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #546 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

lol.gif  Faint praise coming from you. 

:=D
post #547 of 1062
FINALLY SOMEBODY CALLS OUT CHINA. Good on ya. Why Obama doesn't say it (political correctness?) I don't know. Tolerance is good except for tolerance of intolerance because after tolerance of intolerance then there will be no more tolerance period.
post #548 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

The caring people of America, in this case those wonderful supporters of Ryan.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/soup-kitchen-paul-ryan-photo-donor_n_1980541.html

 

What an explosive story.  Of course, it doesn't compare to a business owner telling Obama business has been "terrible since you got here."     

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvfox View Post

It should not. We all should serve our country and not be protected against any religion at all.This is a cop out. The Mormons are great in doing this.
 

 

So everyone has to serve in the military to "serve" the country?  What does "we shouldn't be protected against any religion at all" mean?  Does that mean someone should be able to convert you against your wishes?  

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

@ SDW,

 

Somewhere you posted about Gallup showing a large lead with likely voters. I think you might want to read this before cracking open the Champagne-

 

 

According to Real Clear Politics, Mitt Romney is, on average, up by one point in the polls. According to both Nate Silver and InTrade, President Obama has a better-than-60-percent chance of winning the election. I think it’s fair to say that the election is, for the moment, close.

But not according to Gallup. Their seven-day tracking poll shows Romney up by seven points — yes, seven — with likely voters. But he’s only up by one point with registered voters.

It gets weirder: Dig into the poll, and you’ll find that in the most recent internals they’ve put on their Web site  — which track from 10/9-10/15  — Obama is winning the West (+6), the East (+4), and the Midwest (+4). The only region he’s losing is the South. But he’s losing the South, among likely voters, by 22 points. That’s enough, in Gallup’s poll, for him to be behind in the national vote. But it’s hard to see how that puts him behind in the electoral college.

If Gallup is right, then that looks to me like we’re headed for an electoral college/popular vote split. Last night, I spoke with Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup, to ask him if I was missing something. He said I wasn’t. “That’s certainly what it looks like,” he says.

But Newport was cautious in interpreting his numbers. Gallup’s poll cheered Romney supporters because it showed Romney gaining ground even after the second debate. But Newport didn’t see it like that. Remember, he warned, it’s a seven-day poll. “I think we’re still seeing leftover positive support for Romney and I don’t think we’re seeing impact yet from the second debate,” he says. 

What you think is going on in the race depends on whether you think the electorate will ultimately look more like Gallup’s “likely voter” model, where the race is a blowout, or all registered voters, where it’s a dead heat. So I asked Newport to explain the likely voter model to me. 

“The likely voters model takes into account changes in the response to questions about how closely they’re following and how enthusiastic they are,” he said. “It’s not just capturing underlying movement  — it’s representing changes in enthusiasm.”

That sounds, I replied, like a model that would tend to overstate the effects of major events that favored one candidate or the other, as their supporters would grow temporarily more enthusiastic and attentive, while the other side would grow temporarily disillusioned. Newport agreed. “I wouldn’t use the word ‘overstate,’ ” he said. “But it would be very sensitive to changes in enthusiasm. The Denver debate clearly had an impact on Romney’s people. I think your insight is correct there. Whether we see a dulling of that over the next several days is what I want to see.” 

~http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/19/about-that-gallup-poll-is-romney-really-up-by-7-and-will-obama-win-the-election-anyway/

 

 

 

Wishful thinking, Hands.  Go look at the RCP map today.  Romney has taken his first electoral lead.  Obama is pulling out of North Carolina and Florida.  PA, WI, MI, OH are all tight and easily within the margin.  A recent PA poll actually shows Romney leading 49-45.   Even New Jersey has gone from solid blue to light blue.   

 

Additionally, the analysis about factoring in the second debate is highly flawed.  

 

  • First, the Gallup poll is a rolling average, which means that Romney got stronger numbers over the past three days than he did in previous week.  This show pro-Romney momentum, not the other way around.  
  • Secondly, while several polls show Obama winning the debate, many other measures show that he didn't convince undecided voters.  The CNN flash poll is a perfect example, with Romney leading Obama on the economy, taxes, etc by up to 30 points.  
  • Pursuant to #2, take a look at the MSNBC and Luntz focus groups.  Both went heavily for Romney after the second debate, not to mention the first.  

 

 

 

No one is cracking any champagne.  But the polling adds to the case that Obama is in serious trouble.  In fact, no candidate over 50% in the polls at this date has lost.  Only an unforeseen game-changer will shake up the race now.  I put nothing past Obama in this regard, so no...no champagne as of yet.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #549 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

@ SDW,

 

Somewhere you posted about Gallup showing a large lead with likely voters. I think you might want to read this before cracking open the Champagne-

 

 

According to Real Clear Politics, Mitt Romney is, on average, up by one point in the polls. According to both Nate Silver and InTrade, President Obama has a better-than-60-percent chance of winning the election. I think it’s fair to say that the election is, for the moment, close.

 

You might also want to look at the ABC poll in that RCP poll aggregate. It is one of only two polls that show Obama leading and the sample is Democrat +9 while giving Obama a +3 lead. It clains less than 25% of the electorate is Republican while claiming 34% is Democratic.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #550 of 1062

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #551 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Lee Iacocca Endorses Romney

What a surprise. So does Lindsey Lohan.lol.gif

 

http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/lindsay_lohan_endorses_mitt_romney_TRTpIiyOu2l6cqGv1ZcgAO


Edited by jimmac - 10/19/12 at 8:58pm
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #552 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

@ SDW,

 

Somewhere you posted about Gallup showing a large lead with likely voters. I think you might want to read this before cracking open the Champagne-

 

 

According to Real Clear Politics, Mitt Romney is, on average, up by one point in the polls. According to both Nate Silver and InTrade, President Obama has a better-than-60-percent chance of winning the election. I think it’s fair to say that the election is, for the moment, close.

 

You might also want to look at the ABC poll in that RCP poll aggregate. It is one of only two polls that show Obama leading and the sample is Democrat +9 while giving Obama a +3 lead. It clains less than 25% of the electorate is Republican while claiming 34% is Democratic.

Yes we know trumpy. If the poll shows Romney winning it's valid . If not it's bogus. What horseshit!1rolleyes.gif


Edited by jimmac - 10/19/12 at 8:56pm
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #553 of 1062

The Putinification of American politics, courtesy of the GOP.

 

http://nsfwcorp.co/wbp3h1

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #554 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Yes we know trumpy. If the poll shows Romney winning it's valid . If not it's bogus. What horseshit!1rolleyes.gif
Easy Jimmac, easy...
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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post #555 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoahJ View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Yes we know trumpy. If the poll shows Romney winning it's valid . If not it's bogus. What horseshit!1rolleyes.gif
Easy Jimmac, easy...

I'm sorry but there's no easy involved here. The GOP have become desperate to win. Their choice will say anything to win. Mr. Romney and his scary choice for VP are about as transparent as a sheet of glass. Say what you want about Obama but these guys are just slime. There's no way they should dirty the Oval office with their presence. Romney reminds me of a used car salesman and Ryan is just a self serving moron that doesn't care who he steps on to get his way. That's it in a nutshell.That said however I still don't think they'll win.

 

Liberals, Democrats, and independents you need to get out and vote. So you're disappointed in Obama's performance and you want to display your disappointment by abstaining. If these two were to get into office you'll really be complaining about the awful things they do for years to come. But you'd better look in the mirror when you do because you'll have only yourself to blame if you didn't vote. Get out and vote these guys back under the rock they came out from. They're a desperate choice by the GOP and we don't need desperate choices right now. We need one that works and if you look at things they are on an upper trend. They won't be if Romney and CO. get in there. They'll be like they were when we slid into this mess.


Edited by jimmac - 10/20/12 at 5:11pm
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #556 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

 

What an explosive story.  Of course, it doesn't compare to a business owner telling Obama business has been "terrible since you got here."     

 

 

So everyone has to serve in the military to "serve" the country?  What does "we shouldn't be protected against any religion at all" mean?  Does that mean someone should be able to convert you against your wishes?  

 

 

 

 

Wishful thinking, Hands.  Go look at the RCP map today.  Romney has taken his first electoral lead.  Obama is pulling out of North Carolina and Florida.  PA, WI, MI, OH are all tight and easily within the margin.  A recent PA poll actually shows Romney leading 49-45.   Even New Jersey has gone from solid blue to light blue.   

 

Additionally, the analysis about factoring in the second debate is highly flawed.  

 

  • First, the Gallup poll is a rolling average, which means that Romney got stronger numbers over the past three days than he did in previous week.  This show pro-Romney momentum, not the other way around.  
  • Secondly, while several polls show Obama winning the debate, many other measures show that he didn't convince undecided voters.  The CNN flash poll is a perfect example, with Romney leading Obama on the economy, taxes, etc by up to 30 points.  
  • Pursuant to #2, take a look at the MSNBC and Luntz focus groups.  Both went heavily for Romney after the second debate, not to mention the first.  

 

 

 

No one is cracking any champagne.  But the polling adds to the case that Obama is in serious trouble.  In fact, no candidate over 50% in the polls at this date has lost.  Only an unforeseen game-changer will shake up the race now.  I put nothing past Obama in this regard, so no...no champagne as of yet.  

No, you're just wrong here. Gallup is already showing a drop off of 1% for Romney since the last debate and that was on the evening of Tuesday 16th. The current data is for the period Oct 12th - 18th.  That means two days from after the second debate and 5 days from before the 2nd debate. I think it's likely we'll see Obama up to 46% maybe even 47% and Romney down to 50% or 49%, even 48% by Tuesday. A day or two after that we'll begin to see the impacts of Mondays debate in the Gallup poll. And remember the Gallup likely voter poll is a true outlier poll at the moment. Remember too, swamping the south in votes won't effect the outcome because those states are largely already red.

 

It is close though, and could go either way. We'll see what happens on Monday and the new jobs figures 2 days before election day. I heard something about the unemployment rate dropping down to 7.3% but I'm not sure what that was going by. If true, that'll make a big impact.

 

More on the jobs numbers-

 

Mid-October unemployment rates.gif

 

"Gallup's mid-month unemployment numbers are a good early predictor of the monthly numbers released by the BLS. The decline in Gallup's unadjusted and adjusted employment rate suggests that the BLS may report another decline when it releases the October data on Nov. 2."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158060/unadjusted-unemployment-mid-october.aspx


Edited by Hands Sandon - 10/20/12 at 2:52am
"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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post #557 of 1062

All you members post these remarks against mainly Obama . Do you think it is easy to run a country especially if you are Black? Obama from the start had strike one against him with these southerner Mitch M saying he would be a onetime president .I think the whole dam GOP Party is prejudiced period.It really is starting to show now with these elections coming up.Putrid indeed!
 

post #558 of 1062

Obama is still going to win, but it will be by a much smaller margin than I originally thought.    Mitt wins more states, but he tends to win in the smaller states.   

 

The only states still in question are Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Colorado (9) and Iowa (6).

 

I'm giving Florida to Romney.

 

Without the other four states, Obama has 257.

If he wins Ohio, he wins (with 275)

If he wins Virginia, he wins (with 270)

If he wins Iowa and Colorado, he wins (with 272).

 

In order to lose, he'd have to either lose all of Ohio, Virginia and Colorado or lose all of Ohio, Virginia and Iowa.     Failing a major disaster between now and election day, that's not going to happen.   

 

And if by some miracle, Obama wins Florida, he can lose Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Iowa and still win (with 286 electoral votes).   

 

So sorry Romney supporters, but I think it's over.    Mitt will have to try again in 2016, which he'd probably win easily because after eight years of a Democratic president, it will be almost impossible for any dem to win.  

post #559 of 1062

Here's a former Obama voter who will be voting for Romney.

 

Why I'm voting for Mitt Romney.

 

 

 

1smile.gif

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #560 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

Obama is still going to win, but it will be by a much smaller margin than I originally thought.    Mitt wins more states, but he tends to win in the smaller states.   

 

The only states still in question are Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Colorado (9) and Iowa (6).

 

I'm giving Florida to Romney.

 

Without the other four states, Obama has 257.

If he wins Ohio, he wins (with 275)

If he wins Virginia, he wins (with 270)

If he wins Iowa and Colorado, he wins (with 272).

 

In order to lose, he'd have to either lose all of Ohio, Virginia and Colorado or lose all of Ohio, Virginia and Iowa.     Failing a major disaster between now and election day, that's not going to happen.   

 

And if by some miracle, Obama wins Florida, he can lose Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Iowa and still win (with 286 electoral votes).   

 

So sorry Romney supporters, but I think it's over.    Mitt will have to try again in 2016, which he'd probably win easily because after eight years of a Democratic president, it will be almost impossible for any dem to win.  

Except if by then everything's rosy and some one like Hillary( or some one else that's popular at the time or with some clout ) runs that could take them into another 4 years. It's happened on the Republican side after all with Bush Sr. I'm not saying it will just a possiblity.


Edited by jimmac - 10/20/12 at 5:07pm
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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