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Mitt Romney is Going to Win - Page 16

post #601 of 1062

Here's my prediction (91.2% certainty 1wink.gif)-

 

Obama- 347

 

Romney- 191

 

At the very worst for Obama (8.8% certainty 1wink.gif)-

 

Obama- 286

 

Romney- 252

"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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post #602 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Here's my prediction (91.2% certainty 1wink.gif)-

 

Obama- 347

 

Romney- 191

 

At the very worst for Obama (8.8% certainty 1wink.gif)-

 

Obama- 286

 

Romney- 252

 

 

You live in a fucking dream world.  Romney is winning every state McCain won plus Florida, North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia.  He's also ahead in CO.  He's tied in WI and MI, which means in reality he's got a 2-3 point lead since he's the challenger.  OH is within 1-2 points.  PA is the low single digits, with two polls showing Romney leading.  He's even within mid single digits in freaking Minnesota.  And Obama's job approval is down 7 points in 3 days.  Romney's favorability is now better than Obama's.  Obama's advantage with women is gone (it's tied...it was 16 points a month ago).  Romney leads independents by nearly 20 points.  

 

A Romney victory is even more likely now than when I created this thread.  He's going to get over 300 electoral votes, probably near 320.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #603 of 1062
Thread Starter 
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #604 of 1062

 

This is really something I don't understand...  If Romney is leading with independents by 20 points, how in the world is he not leading in the polls by dramatically more?  Unless the breakout in Ohio is absurdly Democratic, like 40% Democratic, shouldn't Romney be leading by at least 5 or more points?

 

Beyond the party breakdown, Romney has a 6% likeability advantage over Obama, and leads Obama with men by 14 points and trails with women by only 8 points.  Romney leads significantly on the economy (7 points), voter trust (12 points), job creation and energy policy (each 8 points), and even national security now (4 points).  To me these numbers also all tend to indicate Romney's lead should be more substantial than 2 points.

 

Now, this is just reading through the numbers on this one poll.  I fully understand that this poll is currently an outlier.  Taken into context with other polls this race is extremely tight, but this poll just doesn't make much sense to me.


Edited by svnipp - 10/29/12 at 11:58am
post #605 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by svnipp View Post

 

This is really something I don't understand...  If Romney is leading with independents by 20 points, how in the world is he not leading in the polls by dramatically more?  Unless the breakout in Ohio is absurdly Democratic, like 40% Democratic, shouldn't Romney be leading by at least 5 or more points?

 

 

 

Yes, I know.  Part of the issue is most polls are STILL oversampling Dems with their turnout models.  Many people think this just means they survey more Dems, but that's not the case.  They weight the sample to conform with what they think turnout will be.  In 2008 it was Dem +7 nationally.  Now it's likely to be GOP +1 to 2.  That's a HUGE difference.  In actuality turnout will probably even be more heavily Republican.  I see Romney winning OH by 3-4 points.  

 

 

 

 

 

Quote:
Beyond the party breakdown, Romney has a 6% likeability advantage over Obama, and leads Obama with men by 14 points and trails with women by only 8 points.  Romney leads significantly on the economy (7 points), voter trust (12 points), job creation and energy policy (each 8 points), and even national security now (4 points).  To me these numbers also all tend to indicate Romney's lead should be more substantial than 2 points.

 

Actually, the numbers are better than that if you're talking nationally.  He's even with women, for example.  

 

 

 

 

Quote:
Now, this is just reading through the numbers on this one poll.  I fully understand that this poll is currently an outlier.  Taken into context with other polls this race is extremely tight, but this poll just doesn't make much sense to me.

 

I see now.  You meant OH only.  Yeah, I don't get that either unless it's just skewed Dem or underestimating Independents.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #606 of 1062

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #607 of 1062

Bite your tongue when you say this! This will never happen .
 

post #608 of 1062

 

Hey...  Huffington Post is down.  I never thought that a major hurricane like Sandy could actually be the cause of some good.  :)

post #609 of 1062
Thread Starter 

 

I'll tell you what I told a "friend" of mine who brought these comments up:  It is despicable that anyone would attempt politicize this storm.  You disgust me.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #610 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Mittens didn't (doesn't?) like the children of gays.

 

"I've never stood before someone who had no capacity for empathy."

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/romney-some-gays-are-actu_b_2022314.html

 

 

Video emerges.

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/watch-shocking-video-of-r_b_2038327.html

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #611 of 1062

"In praise of gridlock"

 

 

Quote:
I want gridlock. If the House of Representatives and the Senate both go Republican, as I expect they will, then the best chance for political paralysis may be a hostile Democrat in the White House. I want an angry Congress and a president with fingers itching to veto.
 
Ironically, a second-term presidency for Obama could well be America’s shining hope for fewer laws in the next four years. And less law is a situation to be devoutly desired, especially since it would come with a weakened presidency.
 
Political gridlock is a safeguard of freedom, and a constitutional restraint that the Founding Fathers consciously tried to place on power.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #612 of 1062

Mittens ducked questions about FEMA at his campaign event in Ohio today.

 

I recall this lovely comment:

 

If I tell you what I'm going to do, I won't get elected.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #613 of 1062

Fraud?  Intimidation?  Hmmm?  By the campaign of Mittens himself.

 

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/10/30/1106961/romney-wisconsin-poll-watchers/?mobile=nc

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #614 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

 

 

Video emerges.

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelangelo-signorile/watch-shocking-video-of-r_b_2038327.html

 

LOL.  Shocking!  Shocking I say!  Mitt Romney thinks children are better off with a mother and father!  What a fiznucking wack-a-doodle!   Bigot!  Racist!  Something!  

 

The meltdown on the left is actually amusing me now.  You, like your President, are intellectually and morally bankrupt.  You have nothing but attacks, blame and derision now. 

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #615 of 1062

Who knows how the storm will effect Romney's chances, if at all, but certainly Obama is less focused about that at the moment and focused instead on working to get Americans effected any help that he can give. That to me, is what real leaders do. They focus on the important stuff that really matters in people's lives. Governor Christie too has put partisan bickering aside to praise Obama for his "outstanding" and "excellent" leadership during this unfolding disaster. After all the fighting and petty jabs we read daily, that has been really up lifting. Kudos to the governor, and I hope he can get some rest soon. 

"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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post #616 of 1062

The MSM is endlessly parading the "Obama directs relief while Mitt would cut FEMA" meme as hard as it can.

So it's no surprise that liberal partisans are parroting the talking points like they're supposed to.

 

But it's good for Americans to see who exactly sees electoral opportunity in disasters, and whether people who are so brazen about it really deserve to be elected to leadership positions.

 

The Obama campaign has been up to its ears championing the politics of Death (abortion, Planned Parenthood).

Now they've gone over to Fear.

 

How much further can they sink in less than a week?

The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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post #617 of 1062

Typical right-wing tactic--accuse the opponent of the thing that you yourself is doing.  Mitt Romney impeded Red Cross activity by pulling PR stunts the last few days.  Are you kidding me?  Who's taking advantage?  

 

http://politics.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981731468

 

 

 

Quote:
That couldn't be further from the truth. A previously scheduled campaign event set for today in Dayton was scrapped, true. But in its place is what is billed as a "storm relief event." According to the New York Times, the event is being held in the same place with the same celebrity guests, and the same campaign music will be used as previously planned. The only difference is that attendees are being asked to bring donations of canned foods the campaign will distribute at a later time.

Ok, so, he isn't really halting his campaign as he claimed he was, but I suppose it sounds nice that they are asking for donations of canned goods.  Or is it?

 

 

 

Quote:

The Red Cross lays it out in its website, stating:

"Items such as collected food, used clothing and shoes must be sorted, cleaned, repackaged and transported which impedes the valuable resources of money, time, and personnel."

 

Mitt Romney, in order to exploit the superstorm for political gain, is actually impeding the disaster relief efforts.  Good job, Romney.  What a beautiful example of intelligent leadership during a crisis.

 

At least one Republican recognizes the job Obama is doing.

 

 

 

Quote:
Christie told news outlets that the president’s response had been “outstanding,” said that coordinating with the administration had been “wonderful,” and remarked that “the president has been all over this and he deserves great credit.” He even told Fox News the president had done a “great job for New Jersey” while staying above the fray about politics: “I’ve got a job to do here in New Jersey that’s much bigger than presidential politics, and I could care less about any of that stuff. I have a job to do. I’ve got 2.4 million people out of power. I’ve got devastation on the Shore. I’ve got floods in the northern part of my state. If you think right now I give a damn about presidential politics, then you don’t know me.”

 

Obama quietly gets the job done.  Romney impedes efforts in an attempt to show how great he thinks he is.  Tough choice for this country.  

 

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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post #618 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hands Sandon View Post

Who knows how the storm will effect Romney's chances, if at all, but certainly Obama is less focused about that at the moment and focused instead on working to get Americans effected any help that he can give. That to me, is what real leaders do. They focus on the important stuff that really matters in people's lives. Governor Christie too has put partisan bickering aside to praise Obama for his "outstanding" and "excellent" leadership during this unfolding disaster. After all the fighting and petty jabs we read daily, that has been really up lifting. Kudos to the governor, and I hope he can get some rest soon. 

 

What's funny is I think you actually think this is true.  Neither candidate can be seen as being focused on the campaign more than the storm.  Neither was seen that way, so it's a wash.  The only thing it might affect is turnout in Philly and New York, which could help Romney significantly.  

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

The MSM is endlessly parading the "Obama directs relief while Mitt would cut FEMA" meme as hard as it can.

So it's no surprise that liberal partisans are parroting the talking points like they're supposed to.

 

But it's good for Americans to see who exactly sees electoral opportunity in disasters, and whether people who are so brazen about it really deserve to be elected to leadership positions.

 

The Obama campaign has been up to its ears championing the politics of Death (abortion, Planned Parenthood).

Now they've gone over to Fear.

 

How much further can they sink in less than a week?

 

Obama was mostly fine, though the photo op in the situation room and slipping in "lean forward" were pretty obvious.   

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

Typical right-wing tactic--accuse the opponent of the thing that you yourself is doing.  Mitt Romney impeded Red Cross activity by pulling PR stunts the last few days.  Are you kidding me?  Who's taking advantage?  

 

http://politics.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981731468

 

 

 

Ok, so, he isn't really halting his campaign as he claimed he was, but I suppose it sounds nice that they are asking for donations of canned goods.  Or is it?

 

 

 

 

Mitt Romney, in order to exploit the superstorm for political gain, is actually impeding the disaster relief efforts.  Good job, Romney.  What a beautiful example of intelligent leadership during a crisis.

 

At least one Republican recognizes the job Obama is doing.

 

 

 

 

Obama quietly gets the job done.  Romney impedes efforts in an attempt to show how great he thinks he is.  Tough choice for this country.  

 

 

LOL.  Romney suspends all ads and fundraising in storm-affected states, uses campaign buses to distribute donations and converts rallies to storm events/benefits.  Obama stages a photo op in the sit room and slips in the "forward" slogan in a speech, and he's the one who shows "quiet leadership.   ROTFL.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #619 of 1062

Mittens may have had a hand in the meningitis outbreak. 

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-s-lack-of-action-had-a-hand-meningitis-outbreak

 

Yep.  He might have been able to prevent it.  

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #620 of 1062

In one word Romney is selfish!
 

post #621 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Mittens may have had a hand in the meningitis outbreak. 

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-s-lack-of-action-had-a-hand-meningitis-outbreak

Yep.  He might have been able to prevent it.  

LOL. I thought was reading The Onion or The Daily Currant at first. The article is pathetic from start to finish. It claims that Romney and his administration "swept it under the rug," yet doesn't say how or why. Then, it states that had Romney "acted," 25 people may been alive...8 years later. This is even worse than the Joe Soptic ad. Waiting for someone to blame Romney for the hurricane. Or 9/11. Or slavery. Or the rise of Stalin.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #622 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

LOL. I thought was reading The Onion or The Daily Currant at first. The article is pathetic from start to finish. It claims that Romney and his administration "swept it under the rug," yet doesn't say how or why. Then, it states that had Romney "acted," 25 people may been alive...8 years later. This is even worse than the Joe Soptic ad. Waiting for someone to blame Romney for the hurricane. Or 9/11. Or slavery. Or the rise of Stalin.

 

Seeing as how this was posted by the Berg, I'm actually surprised the connection isn't less tenuous.  I figured this was going to be a situation where somebody who once worked for a company that Bain rescued a couple of years ago, well after Romney left, had a sister who's husband was a temporary bookkeeper for the janitorial company that cleaned bathrooms in the marketing offices for the pharmaceutical company.  This would obviously be a direct connection placing blame solely upon Mitt Romney.

 

Honestly this one at least has some relation to Mitt Romney as the initial complaint did occur when he was governor.  Of course, the meningitis outbreak occurred 8 years later, so this seems more than a bit of a stretch.  I see there is no mention whatsoever of the current Democratic governor Deval Patrick and his failures in oversight of this company?  If this were so conveniently swept under the carpet, wouldn't it stand to reason that either the behavior continued and violations were probably worse in the current governors reign or that so agreement was reached that resulted in the company cleaning up it's act.  This is still a ridiculous claim and just goes to show how hard the left is working to find any kind of gotcha to hit Romney with even if they are of only the most tenuous nature.

post #623 of 1062

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #624 of 1062
Quote:

 

I guess my question is, how much have these various agencies and departments GROWN over the past 4, 8, or 10 years?  Everything needs to be evaluated in light of avoiding a future in which we go the way of Greece.  Liberals scream and throw fits over cuts to projected growth rates.  I hope that the cuts Romney is talking about are actual cuts and not just cuts to projected growth rates.  Personally, with all of the pork and bloat in the Federal government, I just don't see a 5% cut being so devastating as The Rolling Stone makes it out to be.  I mean is it really that unreasonable to roll back federal spending to the levels they were at 4 years ago? 

 

Personally, I'm all for going back to the Clinton tax rates!!!  So long as we can go back to the Clinton spending model also, sign me up.

post #625 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:

 

Don't forget that he'll kill your wife, too.  

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #626 of 1062

I'm really looking forward to hearing what SDW2001 and others will say when the polls are proved to have been right (just like they were when Bush beat Gore despite Democratic moaning about the exact same 'issue').

 
I wonder what it'll be ...
 
Democratic cheating at the polls?
 
Some kind of logic-bomb involving self-fulling prophesies instigated by the "main-stream media"?
 
My favourite option is just pretending the whole "skewed poll" thing never happened, incorporating a finally unavoidable reality into daily thought and swiftly moving on.
 
Either way, this wonderful moment is nearly here. It's going to be really, really tight but right now the polls say Obama will squeak it.
post #627 of 1062

I surely hope you are right and Obama can get by win a sure win.Romney is good for one thing he harvests business for profits . This man is a materialistic human being and cares only about MONEY!
 

post #628 of 1062
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

I'm really looking forward to hearing what SDW2001 and others will say when the polls are proved to have been right (just like they were when Bush beat Gore despite Democratic moaning about the exact same 'issue').

 
I wonder what it'll be ...
 
Democratic cheating at the polls?
 
Some kind of logic-bomb involving self-fulling prophesies instigated by the "main-stream media"?
 
My favourite option is just pretending the whole "skewed poll" thing never happened, incorporating a finally unavoidable reality into daily thought and swiftly moving on.
 
Either way, this wonderful moment is nearly here. It's going to be really, really tight but right now the polls say Obama will squeak it.

 

The polls don't say Obama will squeak it at all.  The only polls showing Obama leading are ones with laughable sampling, such as the latest NYT poll.  They are STILL using turnout numbers that exceed even 2008's record Dem turnout.  Additionally: 

 

  • Romney is winning early voting.  There has been a 15% swing towards the GOP in early voting.  Dem early votes are down 70% in Florida
  • Correctly samples polls show Romney winning FL, VA, OH, CO.  They show a tie in Wisconsin and a virtual tie in PA.  
  • Several Democratic strongholds are very close.  Take Minnesota.  Obama won by 14 points in 2008.  The race is now within the margin of error.  
  • National polls continue to show a 2-5 point lead for Romney.  
  • No candidate at or above 50% in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll in October has lost.  Ever.  Obama has not been over 50% in October.  

 

But don't take it from me.  Read Dick Morris on the coming GOP landslide:  

 

 

 

 

Quote:

Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.

As we stripped away Obama’s yearlong campaign of vilification, all the president offered us was more servings of negative ads — ads we had already dismissed as not credible. He kept doing the same thing even as it stopped working.

The result was that the presidential race reached a tipping point. Reasonable voters saw that the voice of hope and optimism and positivism was Romney while the president was only a nitpicking, quarrelsome, negative figure. The contrast does not work in Obama’s favor.

His erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year).

Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes.

And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.

In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.

Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?

Once everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift could be of historic proportions.

The impact on Senate races could be profound. Give the GOP easy pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota. Wisconsin has been a roller coaster. Once an easy win for Republican Tommy Thompson, then a likely loss as Democrat Tammy Baldwin caught up, and now Republican again, it will probably be a third pickup. Romney’s surge in Virginia is propelling George Allen to a good lead for the first time all campaign. In Montana, Republican Denny Rehberg holds and has held for some time a small lead over Democrat incumbent Jon Tester. And, in Pennsylvania, Smith has powered his campaign to a small lead over Democrat Bob Casey Jr.

The GOP now leads in these six takeaways. But it is also within easy striking distance in Ohio and Florida, where incumbents are under 50 percent and Republican challengers Connie Mack (Fla.) and Josh Mandel (Ohio) are only a few points behind. It may even be possible to entertain daydreams of Rhode Island (Barry Hinckley) and New Jersey (Joe Kyrillos) going Republican.

Republican losses? Look for a giveback in Maine and possibly in Indiana and Massachusetts. In Indiana, Republican Richard Mourdock had established a 5-point lead over Democrat Joe Donnelly. But his comments about rape knocked him back to a tie. With Romney carrying the state by 15 points, however, Mourdock could still make it. In Massachusetts, Brown has been in hand-to-hand combat with Elizabeth Warren. Down by five a few days ago, he’s now tied, but the undecided usually goes against the incumbent.

The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now, only opposite.

Barack Obama’s parting gift to the Democratic Party.

I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #629 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

 

The polls don't say Obama will squeak it at all.  The only polls showing Obama leading are ones with laughable sampling, such as the latest NYT poll.  They are STILL using turnout numbers that exceed even 2008's record Dem turnout.  Additionally: 

 

  • Romney is winning early voting.  There has been a 15% swing towards the GOP in early voting.  Dem early votes are down 70% in Florida
  • Correctly samples polls show Romney winning FL, VA, OH, CO.  They show a tie in Wisconsin and a virtual tie in PA.  
  • Several Democratic strongholds are very close.  Take Minnesota.  Obama won by 14 points in 2008.  The race is now within the margin of error.  
  • National polls continue to show a 2-5 point lead for Romney.  
  • No candidate at or above 50% in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll in October has lost.  Ever.  Obama has not been over 50% in October.  

 

 

Yeah, at this point I'm very optimistic, but it could still end up going horribly wrong.  That said, I would be pretty stunned if Romney doesn't end up winning and I would be more surprised by a narrow win than a pretty larger margin.  This has been one damn long election season though, and as much as I'm looking forward to this weekend I'm really looking forward to new Tuesday night even more, and that's saying something since the kids are going to grandma's for the weekend.  :)

 

Assuming it goes our way, it will be interesting to see the reaction on here next week.  Actually, this forum should be a lot of fun next week regardless, though it will be a tad unbearable if Obama were to pull out a miracle and actually win.

post #630 of 1062

If the Democrats worked as hard on policy as they do on stupid mind games, they wouldn't have to be so relentlessly negative in their electioneering.

The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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post #631 of 1062

It wouldn't be a miracle.

 

It would be what the polls are predicting — or at least, an incredibly tight race. Obama is ahead, just, in the swing states. I could go into the details of why, and all that, but I know it'll make no difference to your POV. I mean, there are some who can look at the data and evidence in support of evolution and anthropogenic climate change and chose to believe in what their faith says instead. There's no point arguing with people for whom facts mean nothing.

 

I'm *really* looking forward to coming back here then and laughing at you. I know it's bad, I know, I know, but it's going to be such fun.

post #632 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

It wouldn't be a miracle.

 

It would be what the polls are predicting — or at least, an incredibly tight race. Obama is ahead, just, in the swing states. I could go into the details of why, and all that, but I know it'll make no difference to your POV. I mean, there are some who can look at the data and evidence in support of evolution and anthropogenic climate change and chose to believe in what their faith says instead. There's no point arguing with people for whom facts mean nothing.

 

I'm *really* looking forward to coming back here then and laughing at you. I know it's bad, I know, I know, but it's going to be such fun.

 

You are right that some polls show him ahead. Several article out there have attempted to explain the national poll/state poll divergence. It makes things very hard to sort out in terms of predicting results. However within those polls we do know this in almost every instance.

 

-Obama is below 50%.

-Romney wins massive Republican support.

-Romney is winning among independents.

 

The polls that end up showing Obama winning are weighed very heavily for Democratic likely voters. We understand the claims and rationales for them but those three points above don't change and also there is nothing wrong with being skeptical or questioning the assumptions backing those turn-out models. Disagreement about turnout is a large part of what is causing the wildly divergent polls. I've not seen anything nor even read anything that justifies Democratic +5-8 poll models.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #633 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

There's no point arguing with people for whom facts mean nothing.

 

Agreed. That's why I've stopped arguing with liberals/progressives/leftists in particular. They seem to be especially immune to facts (and logic) and chose to believe what their feelings and intentions tell them instead.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

I'm *really* looking forward to coming back here then and laughing at you. I know it's bad, I know, I know, but it's going to be such fun.

 

What will you do if you end up being wrong?


Edited by MJ1970 - 11/1/12 at 7:56am

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #634 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

 

You are right that some polls show him ahead. Several article out there have attempted to explain the national poll/state poll divergence. It makes things very hard to sort out in terms of predicting results. However within those polls we do know this in almost every instance.

 

-Obama is below 50%.

-Romney wins massive Republican support.

-Romney is winning among independents.

 

The polls that end up showing Obama winning are weighed very heavily for Democratic likely voters. We understand the claims and rationales for them but those three points above don't change and also there is nothing wrong with being skeptical or questioning the assumptions backing those turn-out models. Disagreement about turnout is a large part of what is causing the wildly divergent polls. I've not seen anything nor even read anything that justifies Democratic +5-8 poll models.

 

You should also start to factor in that according to all of the sources I've seen, Republican early and absentee voting is about 15% (I think) higher than Democratic early/absentee voting.  This should be a good early indicator of overall turnout, and if that's the case it's going to be a very, VERY bad day for Obama on Tuesday.  By the way Herald, those are the facts as they stand right now.

post #635 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

 

Agreed. That's why I've stopped arguing with liberals/progressives/leftists in particular. They seem to be especially immune to facts (and logic) and chose to believe what their feelings and intentions tell them instead.

 

 

 

What will you do if you end up being wrong?

 

How curious. Because I've met very, very, few climate change flat-earthers who weren't on the right. And (I don't think) a single left-wing evolution-denier. Both positions are absolutely lunatic. And it's the right wing who will argue against a fact-based approach to (say) the 'war on drugs,' or invading a sovereign country. So, uh, right back at you.

 

If I'm wrong? I'll come back here and say, "Hey guess what! I was wrong."

 

Note — this is only if the polls are wrong, rather than Romney winning. I'll say right now (again) the polls show there's a chance Mittens will win; it's very, very tight. Although they do show Obama has an electoral college edge right now.

post #636 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

 

How curious. Because I've met very, very, few climate change flat-earthers who weren't on the right. And (I don't think) a single left-wing evolution-denier. Both positions are absolutely lunatic. And it's the right wing who will argue against a fact-based approach to (say) the 'war on drugs,' or invading a sovereign country. So, uh, right back at you.

 

If I'm wrong? I'll come back here and say, "Hey guess what! I was wrong."

 

Note — this is only if the polls are wrong, rather than Romney winning. I'll say right now (again) the polls show there's a chance Mittens will win; it's very, very tight. Although they do show Obama has an electoral college edge right now.

 

There is still the potential problem with the sample in those polls that show Obama with a slight electoral college edge.  The latest Gallup poll suggests that voter turnout won't be +8 or more for Democrats, but even or possibly even in favor of Republicans.  Virtually ALL of the swing state polls that show Obama with a narrow lead also is still using the 2008 voter turnout model, and this is looking to be less and less likely based upon polls and early voting data.  If voter turnout is even or even only slightly in favor of the Democrats, Obama will lose several battleground states where he holds only a razor thin margin based purely on the voter turnout model.  Add to voter turnout the conventional wisdom that undecideds typically break for the challenger and the facts and history all point to it looking more and more likely that Romney will win.

post #637 of 1062

Fivethirtyeight shows Obama's chances of winning climbing again after the drop in early October.

 

He now has a 79% chance of winning.  Fivethirtyeight is showing him with 300 electoral votes.

 

 

Obama's performance during Sandy has received almost 80% approval.  Christie, who is usually full of bile for Obama, praised the President strongly.  

 

Mittens scores around 43% favorable; he held a paid-for donation drive of sorts at a pre-arranged campaign stop.  Really?  Oh, now he likes FEMA.  Right.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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post #638 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

How curious. Because I've met very, very, few climate change flat-earthers who weren't on the right.

 

Curious. I've never met a flat-earther. But whatever.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

And (I don't think) a single left-wing evolution-denier.

 

Could it be because they haven't thought thing through? Sure, that's a possibility.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

Both positions are absolutely lunatic.

 

So good of you to share your opinion.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

And it's the right wing who will argue against a fact-based approach to (say) the 'war on drugs,' or invading a sovereign country. So, uh, right back at you.

 

I see that you have chosen to ignore when leftists/"liberals"/"progressives" ignore facts and thus claim it is only those on the right who do so. How fact-based of you.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

If I'm wrong? I'll come back here and say, "Hey guess what! I was wrong."

 

Well good for you.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #639 of 1062

MJ1970 — it's not a question of 'not thinking it through;' it's ... you know, it's ... all the facts. All the facts that support evolution. All of the facts.

 

Utterly extraordinary; in a post about how it's the left wingers who have a problem with the facts you manage to ignore the facts about one of the very most fundamental concepts of the universe; one that isn't just true on a microbiological way but which also probably explains why the laws of physics themselves are the law of physics. Just a thought, but if you're capable of denying the beautiful, simple truth of evolution and all the ... all the facts, yeah, facts, that support it, you don't have any right to point fingers at anyone for fact-blindness or intransigence.

 

Ignoring the science of climate change is our generations holocaust denial. There's no amount of facts that can persuade people of politically-motivated faith to change their minds.

 

What would you like to do if I'm wrong about Mitt winning the election? Kill myself? Abase myself by posting photographs of my arse on this site? Yeah, good for me. Saying I'm wrong is what I'll do.

 

Joker.

post #640 of 1062
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

MJ1970 — it's not a question of 'not thinking it through;' it's ... you know, it's ... all the facts. All the facts that support evolution. All of the facts.

 

No...it's about the interpretation of facts. I suspect you know this. However, being leftist and probably immune to logic, you may not.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

Utterly extraordinary; in a post about how it's the left wingers who have a problem with the facts you manage to ignore the facts about one of the very most fundamental concepts of the universe;

 

Not at all. I merely have a different, reasonable, interpretation of those facts. And you dismiss this as ignoring facts.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

Just a thought, but if you're capable of denying the beautiful, simple truth of evolution and all the ... all the facts, yeah, facts, that support it, you don't have any right to point fingers at anyone for fact-blindness or intransigence.

 

So you get to declare something unproven as simply "true." Got it. 1rolleyes.gif

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

Ignoring the science of climate change is our generations holocaust denial.

 

Your histrionics don't make your case.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harald II View Post

What would you like to do if I'm wrong about Mitt winning the election? Kill myself? Abase myself by posting photographs of my arse on this site? Yeah, good for me. Saying I'm wrong is what I'll do.

 

Nothing of the sort. I was simply curious what you would do if you end up being wrong.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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