Originally Posted by SDW2001
That's not true. Gallup and Rasmussen are the most respected polls in the country. They both showed Romney winning nationally by 1-2 points. He lost by over 3%. That's a 5 point swing. The only polls that showed this outcome were leftwing polls with D+11 samples. In fact, even CNN showed the race tied nationally with a D+11 sample. Do the math.
This came down to turnout, which defied everyone's expectations. The Obama campaign's vaunted "ground game" was far superior to what anyone realized. It worked.
I think that the fact that you think that Rasmussen is "one of the most respected polls in the country" is symptomatic of your problem.
But more generally, "turnout" isn't just some little technical glitch that saves you from losing "your" country. I'm sure you're clinging to the hope that, if Republicans just upgrade their ground game next time around, we'll elect Paul Ryan or whoever and all will be well.
But turnout is demographics is destiny. Look at the trend lines for the numbers of latino, asian, black and women voters. Of those categories, look at the percentages won by Republican presidential candidates over the last three elections. Notice that, given those trends, the Republicans are going to have to squeeze the turnip of their ever dwindling base harder and harder and harder just to stay in the ballpark, whereas the Democrats are going to be enjoying an ever expanding electorate which will require an ever lower net turnout to still win elections by sheer numerical superiority.
What are the Republicans going to do? You can fulminate all you want about how these new, growing populations are lazy and shiftless and "have their hand out" expecting the government to give them goodies, but a couple of things about that:
One, it's a pig-ignorant racist lie. You guys really, really need to get past this bit, and although it seems to be a problem (in that racist belief systems aren't really founded on evidence), nevertheless. Folks aren't stupid, and if Obama won with a coalition of basically everybody but the old white guys, and the old white guys all start shaking their heads and muttering about how the country is now officially doomed because the ones who elected Obama are indolent, Obama-phone having layabouts who don't understand basic economics or how the world works or, apparently, what it means to stand on your Own Two Feet And Make Something of Yourself, well, they get it. They get that you think that white men are industrious and thrifty, and they're not, and that the changing of the guard means the end of the line.
Right? You can holler about the horror of "playing the race card" all you want, but your message is unmistakable, to the ever growing portion of the population that is going to decide the future of the country.
Which is the second point-- whatever else you might believe about Jose and Ming and Devon (and for that matter these Vagina-Americans with their unseemly concerns about their lady parts and not having to carry their rapist's babies to term, which is so obviously beside the point of the proper concerns of real people), explaining to them, in a hundred different ways both subtle and overt, that they suck at being adult human beings is just strategically disastrous. I think even some of the Republican brain trust, such as it is, are starting to notice, but then you're saddled with that very vocal Tea Party action which is ready to secede from a union that involves all these "maggots."
And the thing is, they are definitely going to secede, in the sense that they will become utterly irrelevant to the governance of the country. Texas is going to go blue. It's inevitable, as hispanic voters continue to swell in numbers, get organized, and remember, forever, that white Texan politicians think they're a problem to be controlled. At that point, game over.
It's going to happen, the demographic numbers don't lie. The only question is, can the Republican party quite acting like a John Birch meeting, circa 1956, long enough to talk to these voters without visibly sneering? If not, you have nobody to blame but yourself for the coming "socialism."
Edited by signal1 - 11/11/12 at 10:34am