Amazon Kindle Fire HD called 'ambitious,' but unlikely to dethrone Apple's iPad - Page 2

Could be for some, but not for me. I haven't followed the company for the past 17 years so I have no clue what people have been saying.

 

Earnings and stock prices don't necessarily move in tandem. One often leads or lags the other. But at some point, one they catch up with each other.

 

I said a 'few quarters.' Let's see. Check back in Fall 2013.

Well I think that the Windows Surface RT at $39.99... and especially the Pro version at only $79.99, are going to sweep the tablet category by X-mas.

And don't forget, that the Surface tablets all include the full version of Office 13, plus a truly innovative keyboard cover... and the only devices to be allowed to have the patented Kick-S(t)and™.

You just try to install Crysis, Maya, or Adobe CS6 Master on your iPads and Kindles.

/s

 

Good analysis.  Personally, I hate companies like Amazon, they personify everything that is bad about capitalism, so your post actually cheered me up substantially by reminding me how fragile they are as a company and how likely it is that they will ultimately fail and be replaced by something that we can only hope is a bit better. 

Yep. They seem to be playing the printer/ink but forgetting that to make profit they need to have higher prices on that ink.

Feels to me like this is still the same loss leader game they were doing with the Kindle and with ebooks. To lure folks to the store to shop for more pricey things that will make them a profit.

If Apple's P/E rocketed to 312 that'd make a lot of people here quite happy

Page hits. Blogs only care about them, Apple gets the most. Analysts etc know this so the name drop Appke as much as they can so their shit gets spread around.

No one else gets hits so why talk about them

 

I dont agree at all, the ipad mini will probably come with only 16g of spaces (if not 8), no 4g support.  It may hurt ipad 2 sales a bit, but the ipad 3 with retina display has much better stats and a choice of 16/32/64g of spaces.

 

Agreed, this move by Amazon may make the Windows RT tablet DOA.  I can't believe how complicated Microsoft is making things for the general public...

 

 

I wouldn't worry too much, that hasn't worked so far with all of the cheap Windows machines out there.  Apple has been enjoying increasing sales in the desktop/laptop department.

 

iPads currently start at $399.  For anyone who currently has an iOS device of any kind moving to a $399 iPad is a no brainer.  Who wants to start a ground zero with applications?

It's all about User Experience, Ecosystem, and Interface. 

 

Not price. The also-rans *still* don't get it. 

All sarcasm aside, and whether this is about the Kindle, how well it does or not... I'm still betting that MS is going to "try" to beat the iPads, and release the Win8 Surface RT at a huge loss, say ~$300,-.

My long bet says that it will not do well at all, and come Q1 when the Pro is supposed to hit the market, either 1) the miss their deadline and delay it, or 2) they don't release it at all and call it a "reference design" for their OEMs. Who, by this time, have marked down all of their X-Mas tablets by 50% or more.

No "window" for Windows Surface Pro as I can see, unless MS is prepared to seriously reduce the price. That's rather unfortunate for them considering they haven't even released a price (or product) yet. This leaves the market for the poor, and soon to get much poorer OEMs, who will be killing themselves in the fastest race to the bottom we have ever witnessed.

Apple -> Amazon -> Android = "AAA Tablet League".

 

 

The windows tablets will may come with office to help gain market share.  I see a market for those because Ms will be able to offer a complete solution to entreprises that are already using office. Even if Office is not pre-installed, its still being offered. I see Microsolft hurting android a lot and I dont think Ms will ever make an android version of office.  Lets hope Apple can convinced Ms to releasy office for iOS.

 

The amazon stock valuation is just plain ridiculous indeed.  That co will never be able to rise profit to match that valuation.  If the next earnings are not good, it will melt imo.

Until you find put that they picked the carrier and it's not LTE in your/most areas yet and won't be for another year possibly. Or that the limit is 250mb. And if you do over that your options are either having cell data off for the rest of the month or being throttled down to 3G speeds and paying overages at standard rates which could mean as much as $50 - 100 a month. Etc. We need those kind of details before we can say this deal is really that awesome

Well there is that too. Including perhaps that the cell data fee is non refundable or transferable so if you buy it and then return your Fire you are screwed. Maybe give you like a week to return with it refunded to avoid legal issues, but otherwise.

Kind of a no brainer. Everyone is trying to beat the iPad. At least in the eyes of Shaw Wu and friends

 

And clichés are going to be flung about...

 

Sorry, but I'm tired of all the "hater" nonsense.  If you're not a drooling "fanboy", then you're some kind of "hater" or "troll".  Why can't people have a difference of opinion without being called names?

I think Apple's model of making more money off the hardware side is a more sound business model, even though Bezos's wants the consumer to think its a ripoff. Get the money up front and then let people do what they want with their device. What Bezos is doing is basically selling content and giving you a "free" device to view it on.

 

I disagree.  I can't see Microsoft selling anything at a loss.   They certainly didn't try to buy market share with the Zune.   I believe they'll try to be competiive, but they won't sell below cost.     I suspect the Surface RT will sell for the same $400 as the iPad 2. 

 Yes, it's the only difference. The iPad WiFi+LTE has a $130 premium. Amazon's is more because they are subsidizing that $50/year LTE data plan from AT&T.

200$ for lte acid 50$ on top of that for the data. With 50$ more you can buy 2 wifi, it makes no sense. But the 299$ is a huge treat to the iPad IMHO, the price disparity is huge. I have bought the top of the line iPad 1 and 3 for 900$ and I can't see me doing the same again with this tablets having comparablet hardware so cheap. I can pay a premium but not 200-300$

No doubt about Apple's lead, but kudos to Amazon with the enhancements to their tablet line.

 

If they sell it at 300, that would be 100 over the price they said they would price it at.  

Complicated is the MS MO = they actually are doing a pretty good job "trying" to push the "one system to rule them all" approach with Win8. That, considering their history with releasing up to 7 variations of the same operating system (or was it 8?).

Glad you mentioned that, because it is exactly the applications and "Closed Eco Systems" that MS is betting on, but not exactly the way most people think.

MS is going to sacrifice RT... and then point to how bad "CESes" are, while pumping up WinPro tablets from their OEMs. That's after deciding it "wasn't a good idea" to compete with them.

At that point:

a) all of the programs and software that is currently on the market for Windows is the competition to each AAA League App Store;

b) OEMs will bring the prices of WinTabs down so far to the point where the "good enough" crowd really does say,

"Well ya can't beat $79.95 for what I want to do with it. Who cares if I can't run all the top Windows titles smoothly. It has Office and I can do my taxes on it when not watching Hulu, surfing, email, or reading".

It's what they've been saying for years anyway... and they'll just install their same tired (legal?) old copies of software that they're familiar with, and use a mouse, USB keyboard, whatever.

The real losers in all of this, is going to be the OEMs. I expect half of them to be out of the consumer space within the next 2 years. Sell now.

Disclosure: the above topic was discussed recently at an IFA Berlin party I attended, along with some present (unmentioned company) and former boardroom members. A many number of my hunches were confirmed. There happens to be a German guy that was fired about a year back who, while not present, was well known by the other party goers. He got nailed for moving too fast on these predictions and not wanting to keep his company involved any longer in the PC market and "Consumer Product Wars". Turns out that a number of his predictions are coming true.

Last but not least, history will and is repeating itself. Difference this time: Apple will not be taken to the brink of collapse. There is a very good reason why they're hoarding their cash, but this is more a cushion than anything else. They will remain the most profitable tech hardware maker. But don't be surprised if their share price "roller coasters" (what else is new?) and that their market share drops. Sadly, there will be the old "Apple is doomed" to contend with... that is until the next revolution. I think we all know what that is, don't we...

 

The big issue is that Amazon's "ink" fits everybody else's "printer" so why but their printer that only works with their ink?

You always hear about Apple's "walled garden" but outside of theming the device (which just slows it down), everybody else's services work on the iPad. On the iPad I can consume Amazon content, B&N content, Google content, Hulu, Netflix, etc, etc. Heck even Microsoft has a healthy selection of Apps for the iPad including SkyDrive, Bing, OneNote & even Lync.

So yes, Amazon's Kindle Fires are indeed cheaper but not when you consider nothing is exclusive with them and you have to deal with ads on your lockscreen and the truly "walled garden" that is the Amazon Marketplace. If it ain't there, too bad or you can try to sideload apps which is horrible and just promotes piracy since you would need an actual Android device to purchase apps from Google to begin with.

No thanks, I'll pay extra and actually have a choice where I get my content from. Thanks Apple.

Signed,

An ex-Kindle Fire user. (But also an almost exclusive Amazon Prime shopper and future Kindle Paperwhite owner.)

Edited by jmillermcp - 9/7/12 at 9:32am

They "hinted" at prices. They said, "comparable to other devices on the market". They were clever in that they didn't say which ones.

Speculation was that the WinRT would be at or about iPad pricing ~400.-.. and the WinPro at Ultrabook prices ~1000.-.


Which they may see as a mistake these days (?).

Regardless... whether it's 200.- or 500.-... makes no difference. It will not compete. I firmly believe MS knows this and is absolutely ready and waiting for that outcome.

As much as people would like to believe, and certainly their outward appearances don't help them with the "Duck-footed Ballmer"... MS is NOT dumb. Actually, neither is Ballmer, regardless of whether he is a Hollwood-casting "Used-Car Salesman" dream boy.

Exhibit A: Here's a "good enough guy" for ya.

Wall Street sees it differently than you.  Amazon's share price seems to reflect Wall Street's confidence that Apple is going to suffer at Amazon's hands.  Besides Wall Street has infinitely more faith in Jeff Bezos than Tim Cook.  A company doesn't get a P/E of 316 for no reason at all.  Same with Google.  WS also expects the Nexus 7 will take market share from iPads and that's why Google's share price is leaving Apple's in the dust.  Wall Street believes that all Apple products will be commoditized by far less expensive Android products, both tablets and smartphones.  It's plain to see that WS is betting heavily against Apple.

Not sure what Wall Street you're referring to but AAPL is up $12 since closing on 9/5 and is up $6 so far just today.

Just ran across a BGR post that says all the Fires are ad supported.   That could explain the pricing and the cheap network.    Would that affect the decision of 'regular folk' sales??

 

http://www.bgr.com/2012/09/06/new-amazon-kindle-fire-tablets-advertistements/

Amazon stated You can choose to to get the ads on the settings.

I doubt that even that is a real success, since it's all anecdotal.

 

Perhaps I missed it, and they finally put out some numbers: have they ever provided audited figures in how many they've sold? Does anyone know? (I am not talking about analyst/consulting firm estimates).

 

Indeed, are there actual numbers for even the supposedly mega-successful Kindle?

This, I agree with totally.

 

Everyone seems to be valuing it for its revenue (and revenue potential), but not actual earnings or cash flows.

 

It may be a matter of time, but we have abundant empirical evidence on how that ends.

For a second I thought the fandroids died...

I don't agree that the Kindle Fires make the Surface DOA. The Kindles, including the Fires, are pure consumption tablets. The Surface is being pitched as a productivity tablet (hence the keyboard and likely a version of Office). This dichotomy allows Apple to continue pitching the iPad as a more versatile option than both.
 

 

Amazon said, "Oh, shit!, can we get right back to you on that?!?"

 

As a consumer, I love companies like Amazon. 

 

I disagree.   Microsoft is pushing the new WinRT programming model hard.  These are the APIs that produce Metro-style apps.  They believe this differentiation is their key to long term survival.   Surface RT is pretty much WinRT only - minus perhaps the Office 13 apps.  Surface RT may be their price leader, but it's also their long term goal.  All Metro, all the time.   Surface Pro (x86) is for those that can't yet let go of the past.  I don't think the Surface Pro will sell well.   As soon as people see how poorly their old x86 apps run on the touch-based tablet, they'll realize that the tablet is the future, not the past.  They'll want tablet-centric apps - which the RT can provide cheaper.

You shouldn't, if the business model is inherently unsustainable.

Well said and right on!!

The LTE yearly plan is amazing. I have absolutely no idea how Amazon is going to foot that bill, or how they got AT

 

The OS-level advertisements, I imagine.

I took one look at the picture and was instantly reminded of those cheap Chinese tablets you can buy from eBay or in discount catalogues.

Rebadging?

In the Fire HD marketing materials, I notice two things which might be a concern for Amazon…

First, they are showing the Fire HD lock and/or home screens *without* the ads that WILL be there if you buy one (and to me, that smacks slightly of false advertising, or at the least misrepresenting the 'product experience').

Second, in the image used for this article, the interface looks an awful lot like Apple's patented "cover flow"… is that a lawsuit waiting to happen, or did a licensing deal happen somewhere?