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Record iPhone 5 preorders increase confidence in 10M Sept. quarter sales

post #1 of 21
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With Apple's iPhone 5 already off to a record setting start, market watchers have expressed greater confidence that Apple could sell as many as 10 million units before the current quarter ends on September 29.

After Apple announced on Monday that preorders of the iPhone 5 had exceeded 2 million in the first 24 hours, Wall Street analysts reacted positively to the news, while some revised their projected sales upward. Among those was T. Michael Walkley with Canaccord Genuity, who now believes Apple could ship between 9 million and 10 million iPhone 5 units by the end of the September quarter.

Walkley's checks with Apple's three U.S. carrier partners found that in addition to strong iPhone 5 preorders, AT&T, Verizon and Sprint have also seen "solid sales" of legacy models. With the introduction of the iPhone 5, Apple has dropped the price of the 16-gigabyte iPhone 4S to $99, while an 8-gigabyte iPhone 4 is available for free with a new two-year service contract.

Walkley joins Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, who said earlier this month before the iPhone 5 was officially unveiled that he also believes sales of the latest iPhone could reach 10 million by the end of the current quarter. The iPhone 5 will debut in 9 countries this Friday, Sept. 21, and another 22 countries will follow suit next Friday.

Sales


Brian White with Topeka Capital Markets also previously said that iPhone 5 sales could reach between 10 million and 12 million units this quarter, despite being on sale for just one week of the September frame. He said Monday after Apple announced its record preorders that his estimates "look conservative."

"Given the much stronger than expected iPhone 5 pre-orders sales, we expect a meaningful jump in the three-day sales results for the iPhone 5 compared to the over 4 million iPhone 4S weekend sales last year," White wrote.

Last year's iPhone 4S launch was the largest product debut ever for Apple, reaching 4 million units in its first three days of availability. That more than doubled the previous record of 1.7 million sales in three days by the iPhone 4 in 2010.

Finally, Maynard Um with Wells Fargo Securities said in a note to investors on Monday that he expects Apple will face supply constraints of the iPhone 5 at launch. Apple did acknowledge on Monday that demand for the iPhone 5 currently exceeds supply, but the company also said the "majority of preorders" will be delivered to customers on Sept. 21.

New orders of the iPhone 5 are not scheduled to arrive until October, which would push those sales to Apple's December quarter. Leading up to the holiday shopping season, Um expects Apple will resolve its supply constraints "rather quickly" and catch up to consumer demand for the iPhone 5.
post #2 of 21

Kind of off topic:  Last night I was at the 49er v. Detroit Lions game in San Francisco and I swear iPhones outnumbered any other type of phone easily 15 to 1.  People want the iPhone, at least in the US.  Most were texting, taking pictures, surfing the net or Facebooking.

post #3 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post

Kind of off topic:  Last night I was at the 49er v. Detroit Lions game in San Francisco and I swear iPhones outnumbered any other type of phone easily 15 to 1.  People want the iPhone, at least in the US.  Most were texting, taking pictures, surfing the net or Facebooking.

 

It the same over here in Europe...

post #4 of 21
I never understand these articles.

They are written as if demand is the variable in early sales projections. They even mention in the article that all preorders have long since slipped to October delivery. It's hard to believe that the phones reserved for retail stores will not sell out of their initial supply before September is over, if not immediately.
The only real discussion surrounding September quarter sales of the new phone should focus on how many Apple was able to produce and ship. Demand (at this point) is fixed well above supply...
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post #5 of 21
For sales to approach 10m, Apple and their suppliers have to build that many high quality products. Are they capable of doing that.

Quality is my main concern. Imagine the horror of putting high numbers up, but producing a relatively high percentage of faulty products. I always hold my breath on this sole issue.
post #6 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post

Kind of off topic:  Last night I was at the 49er v. Detroit Lions game in San Francisco and I swear iPhones outnumbered any other type of phone easily 15 to 1.  People want the iPhone, at least in the US.  Most were texting, taking pictures, surfing the net or Facebooking.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jume View Post

 

It the same over here in Europe...

Where have all the Androids gone? La lah di Dah....

post #7 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jume View Post

 

It the same over here in Europe...

no, it isn't. atleast in portugal, spain, france..

post #8 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

no, it isn't. atleast in portugal, spain, france..

 

 

I cannot say about Portugal, but the iPhone is very popular in France, believe me ...

post #9 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post

Kind of off topic:  Last night I was at the 49er v. Detroit Lions game in San Francisco and I swear iPhones outnumbered any other type of phone easily 15 to 1.  People want the iPhone, at least in the US.  Most were texting, taking pictures, surfing the net or Facebooking.

We always hear how Android outsells iPhone but one thing to consider is that unlike Android phones, iPhones do not go out of service. There is a huge resale value in used iPhones. People don't buy those used iPhones to toss them in a drawer. So even though Android sells a lot, you really should count iPhone resales when comparing. That is one reason that we have a hard time believing the Android numbers because everywhere we go we see so many iPhones.

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post #10 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

I never understand these articles.
They are written as if demand is the variable in early sales projections. They even mention in the article that all preorders have long since slipped to October delivery. It's hard to believe that the phones reserved for retail stores will not sell out of their initial supply before September is over, if not immediately.
The only real discussion surrounding September quarter sales of the new phone should focus on how many Apple was able to produce and ship. Demand (at this point) is fixed well above supply...

They are used to reporting on Blackberry and Android releases where the stores end up shipping back stock to the manufacturers. Apple is one of the few companies whose numbers are pretty close to sell through numbers, not just the amount of product shipped out by the factory to sit on store shelves or be returned when they don't sell.

post #11 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

 Apple did acknowledge on Monday that demand for the iPhone 5 currently exceeds supply, but the company also said the "majority of preorders" will be delivered to customers on Sept. 21.
New orders of the iPhone 5 are not scheduled to arrive until October, which would push those sales to Apple's December quarter. Leading up to the holiday shopping season, Um expects Apple will resolve its supply constraints "rather quickly" and catch up to consumer demand for the iPhone 5.

 

That's the part that intrigues me. I guess most of us will find out soon enough. Here's hoping my Oct 5th delivery date gets bumped up!

post #12 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

For sales to approach 10m, Apple and their suppliers have to build that many high quality products. Are they capable of doing that.
Quality is my main concern. Imagine the horror of putting high numbers up, but producing a relatively high percentage of faulty products. I always hold my breath on this sole issue.

 

 Is this like a big mystery for you?

 

Every iPhone that has ever existed has always commanded the highest customer satisfaction rates. You don't achieve that with "a relatively high percentage of faulty products." Why would it be any different now? What's changed at Apple? Nothing. 

 

You must be confusing Apple with an Android OEM, though I'm not sure how that's even possible. 

post #13 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

We always hear how Android outsells iPhone but one thing to consider is that unlike Android phones, iPhones do not go out of service. There is a huge resale value in used iPhones. People don't buy those used iPhones to toss them in a drawer. So even though Android sells a lot, you really should count iPhone resales when comparing. That is one reason that we have a hard time believing the Android numbers because everywhere we go we see so many iPhones.

Hmm... Good point but the majority of iPhone I saw (like 80%) is 4 or 4s though.
post #14 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


Hmm... Good point but the majority of iPhone I saw (like 80%) is 4 or 4s though.

 

 

Some people sold their 4 or 4s in anticipation of the iPhone 5 ... 

post #15 of 21
Quote:

Originally Posted by mstone View Post

 

We always hear how Android outsells iPhone but one thing to consider is that unlike Android phones, iPhones do not go out of service. There is a huge resale value in used iPhones. People don't buy those used iPhones to toss them in a drawer. So even though Android sells a lot, you really should count iPhone resales when comparing. That is one reason that we have a hard time believing the Android numbers because everywhere we go we see so many iPhones.

 

This is beyond true. I recently tried out a 3GS we still have and I'm using it on Airvoice for $10 a month. It is still profoundly useful due to the great though limited multitasking and the ability of the programs to freeze and save puts it leagues better than similar android phones when they try to multitask. It is also perfectly functional in every fashion. The only issue we've ever had with an iPhone involved my wife dropping hers into water. They are made to last.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

no, it isn't. atleast in portugal, spain, france..

 

Apple doesn't do as well in markets where there are no subsidies or where people can be fooled into an inferior product due to the race to the bottom in price. You get what you pay for though.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #16 of 21

 

Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

We always hear how Android outsells iPhone 

 

 

 

We do hear that a lot, except it is hardly impressive. 

 

iOS is still the dominant mobile OS worldwide. That includes iPhones, iPads, iPods. Android is almost nowhere in the tablet space. 

 

Further, Apple, under one roof (no OEMs involved), commands 30% US smartphone share. All on their own. In the tablet space, their share is nearly 70% worldwide. 

 

And all this, with a closed, tightly-controlled ecosystem, without any universal licensing or OEMs. 

post #17 of 21
Here in The Netherlands it's all iPhone as well. Sure I see enough non-iPhones, but even people who only call/SMS/take pictures use an iPhone. I guess it's because they are used to iPods and the iPhone is simply a natural progression of you will. After asking people, iPhone users, I learned that many do only use it for its basic function. Many don't use Google Maps, apps, or Safari for that matter. Many love the fact that email and SMS is such an easy way of communicating they stick to those apps.

Could be a Dutch thing; what apps do you guys see used in the States?
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post #18 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Here in The Netherlands it's all iPhone as well. Sure I see enough non-iPhones, but even people who only call/SMS/take pictures use an iPhone. I guess it's because they are used to iPods and the iPhone is simply a natural progression of you will. After asking people, iPhone users, I learned that many do only use it for its basic function. Many don't use Google Maps, apps, or Safari for that matter. Many love the fact that email and SMS is such an easy way of communicating they stick to those apps.
Could be a Dutch thing; what apps do you guys see used in the States?

A lot of Farmville, Tiny Tower & Words with Friends ... ;-)

post #19 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

 

Where have all the Androids gone? La lah di Dah....

 

Crap croaks quickly...

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post #20 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post

Kind of off topic:  Last night I was at the 49er v. Detroit Lions game in San Francisco and I swear iPhones outnumbered any other type of phone easily 15 to 1.  People want the iPhone, at least in the US.  Most were texting, taking pictures, surfing the net or Facebooking.
Were they really iPhones or were they Samsung's copycat phones? In a stadium at a distance it would be hard to tell...
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post #21 of 21

It is big sales numbers like these that really make me think Apple will dump the Mac Mini. These phones are getting powerful with computing. They cost much more than the basic Mac Mini. The Mini doesn't sell very many units by comparison. Why does Apple even keep it around? They certainly don't advertise it anywhere. I've seen full size iMac ads but those are rare.

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