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Apple announces iPhone 5 sales top 5 million in first weekend - Page 2

post #41 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Connell View Post

One also has to factor in the fact that the iPhone 5 is launching in two additional countries compared to the 4S - Hong Kong and Singapore, which would account for some of the additional sales of the iPhone 5.  Without specific numbers, it's impossible to say exactly how much this was a factor, but it does cast the increase in 1st weekend sales in a bit of a different light.

Not really. We don't know how much over 5 million the sales were. Apple likes to stick with even numbers: over 5 million, rather than 5.25 million.
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post #42 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:20am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

I am kind of surprised. With much wider international release, upgrade customer base, and upgrade significance it seems to be a failure. Now if apple recognizes revenue on shipment, severe inventory constraints may explain this.

If you actually read the article, you would see that the wider release was very minor.
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post #43 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post


I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?
I've bought phones and tablets from Apple the first day. It takes then a certain amount of time to handle each customer. And while its gotten faster, it's not that much faster. So they can get a certain number of people through in a day. The web site in theory, can do better, but even there , we get congestion.
And then we have the carriers and third party retailers, all of whom ran out of stock. Again, I don't know how they handle sales when out of stock. Do they count as a sale, an order that isn't paid for? That order could be cancelled.
If Apple had twice as many phones available, would they have been able to sell more?
I think that over 5 million for three days is pretty damn good.

There are still a likely couple of million -- like the one I ordered for my wife -- that won't show up in the numbers until shipped (since revenue won't be booked until then).

 

 

I think that, when the dust settles, the actual number from the first week will be closer to 7 - 8 million, since the 5 million only includes those that have been delivered/sold in retail outlets.

 

The stock price move was a short-term overreaction. (Indeed, as of the time I write this, the stock has already gained back close to half its pre-opening lows).

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post #44 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

Why does anyone still listen to Gene Munster? He is sooooo irrelevant...

WSJ:
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.

Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.
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post #45 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?

They were but they were going from looking at YoY sales. Wasn't it 2M for the iPhone and 4M for the iPhone 4S? If so, that doesn't seem to outrageous to predict doubling that. I predicted 6M, if I recall correctly, after I factored in scaling issues.

Unfortunately some will take first weekend sales as an indication that the quarter thus assuming they will only sell 25% more. That would be a fool's position to take. For the quarter I expect no less than a 60% YoY increase for the quarter.

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post #46 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

There are still a likely couple of million -- like the one I ordered for my wife -- that won't show up in the numbers until shipped (since revenue won't be booked until then).


I think that, when the dust settles, the actual number from the first week will be closer to 7 - 8 million, since the 5 million only includes those that have been delivered/sold in retail outlets.

The stock price move was a short-term overreaction. (Indeed, as of the time I write this, the stock has already gained back close to half its pre-opening lows).

That's a good point. They are also adding 28(?) more countries this Friday, which is unprecedented. They have put them aside and they aren't counted yet. They could have over 8 million sold in the first 2 weekends.

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post #47 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post


WSJ:
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.
Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.

unfortunately, The Market doesn't discount the analysts until they do something illegal, or lose money for their bosses.

 

Apple sold what they sold.  Maps will get better.   the phone is unlocked for LTE GSM, which makes the Verizon phone worth all the little bit more in terms of functionality.

 

Personally, I thought the riots at Foxconn overnight were the reason for the stock drop.  It's much more damaging to Apple if Foxconn can't make phones as fast as planned.

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post #48 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by ifij775 View Post

I'm surprised it wasn't more when you compare to the 4S, a significantly smaller upgrade.

I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?

I've bought phones and tablets from Apple the first day. It takes then a certain amount of time to handle each customer. And while its gotten faster, it's not that much faster. So they can get a certain number of people through in a day. The web site in theory, can do better, but even there , we get congestion.

And then we have the carriers and third party retailers, all of whom ran out of stock. Again, I don't know how they handle sales when out of stock. Do they count as a sale, an order that isn't paid for? That order could be cancelled.

If Apple had twice as many phones available, would they have been able to sell more?

I think that over 5 million for three days is pretty damn good.

 

As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).

 

For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".

 

If resellers (including  Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.

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post #49 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

WSJ:
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.
Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.

Simple. He only looked at demand (aka: desire). He didn't look at what was feasible in the physical world for a company to sell with finite resources.

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post #50 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:33am
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


That's a good point. They are also adding 28(?) more countries this Friday, which is unprecedented. They have put them aside and they aren't counted yet. They could have over 8 million sold in the first 2 weekends.

 

The more important number is sales for Jul-Sep Quarter.   As that not only offsets the last quarter 'duldrums' it also sets the expectations through the holidays, which for Apple speculators, it's like the day the Sears Xmas Catalog was delivered (yes, I'm old as dirt).  

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post #51 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:34am
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

There are still a likely couple of million -- like the one I ordered for my wife -- that won't show up in the numbers until shipped (since revenue won't be booked until then).


I think that, when the dust settles, the actual number from the first week will be closer to 7 - 8 million, since the 5 million only includes those that have been delivered/sold in retail outlets.

The stock price move was a short-term overreaction. (Indeed, as of the time I write this, the stock has already gained back close to half its pre-opening lows).

This looks to be a wild day in the market. When I first looked, it was down $12.75. Then, over time, was just down $5.35. Looked again and it was down $8.80, then down over $10. Just looked again, and it's down $8.64. Doesn't help that the market is down as well. The maps problem isn't helping either.
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post #52 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:35am
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

I know several people who have been holding on to their 3GS for various reasons who are now ready to upgrade - so it would be interesting to see if any data on what folks are upgrading form is available. 

 

Here's a datapoint - I upgraded from a 3GS and my wife upgraded (or rather, I upgraded her) from a 4.

 

The way it usually works in our household is that the "boss" gets the latest and I get the hand-me-down. We don't buy every generation - we previously went from a 2G to the 3GS then to the 4. This time, the plan was that one of us would get the 5 - if it were me, then my wife would be content to stay with the 4. If it were my wife who got the 5, then I would upgrade my 3GS to a 4S (for the better camera vs. the 4). In either case the mother-in-law would end up with an iPhone again (she previously was using our old 2G until it got pick-pocketed).

 

Of course what ended up happening is that I was so impressed by the iPhone 5 announcement that I pre-ordered two (1 black, 1 white) - I felt the improvements were well worth the $100 premium over the 4S (unlocked). The 4 will go the mother-in-law and right now I'm not sure what I will do with the 3GS - I just upgraded it to iOS 6 today and will probably play around with it a bit before deciding.

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post #53 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:39am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

 

As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).

 

For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".

 

If resellers (including  Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.

It was my understanding that 'stick and stucco' worked off the same inventory control as the online store.. a sale wasn't recorded until the card is charged.

 

Resellers... I don't know.  But given how they report sales, I would think they don't book the sale until they see a 'restock' order (If I sent Best Buy 100,000, and they send me a restock of 150K, I sold 100K.  if they send a restock of 95K, I sold 95K, with 5K still 'in channel').

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post #54 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:42am
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

They were but they were going from looking at YoY sales. Wasn't it 2M for the iPhone and 4M for the iPhone 4S? If so, that doesn't seem to outrageous to predict doubling that. I predicted 6M, if I recall correctly, after I factored in scaling issues.
Unfortunately some will take first weekend sales as an indication that the quarter thus assuming they will only sell 25% more. That would be a fool's position to take. For the quarter I expect no less than a 60% YoY increase for the quarter.

But the logistical problems have to be taken into account. I would love to know what percentage of iPhones are sold from Apple's stores, their web site, the carriers (which we will know, at least from AT&T and Verizon), and other third party sellers.

If we knew that, we could make much better predictions. As I said, Apple can only get a certain number of people through their stores in a day. And what happens in a Best Buy? Do they book orders that must be picked up and billed a week later? How about Walmart, Radio Shack, and others. How about in other countries. What do their laws say? They may not be allowed to book a sale until the device in in the consumers hand, and is only then paid for.

There's too much we don't know. Maybe "more than 5 million" is about all they could do. That seems to be an awful lot of sales for a weekend.
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post #55 of 103
9/24/12 at 7:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).

For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".

If resellers (including  Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.

No Apple books sell through. That means a committed sale to the end user.
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post #56 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But the logistical problems have to be taken into account. I would love to know what percentage of iPhones are sold from Apple's stores, their web site, the carriers (which we will know, at least from AT&T and Verizon), and other third party sellers.
If we knew that, we could make much better predictions. As I said, Apple can only get a certain number of people through their stores in a day. And what happens in a Best Buy? Do they book orders that must be picked up and billed a week later? How about Walmart, Radio Shack, and others. How about in other countries. What do their laws say? They may not be allowed to book a sale until the device in in the consumers hand, and is only then paid for.
There's too much we don't know. Maybe "more than 5 million" is about all they could do. That seems to be an awful lot of sales for a weekend.

Funny you should say that. I was just trying to figure those numbers out (with a wide margin for error).

What we know:
  • Apple had 2 million pre-orders in the first 24 hours.
  • First day delivery of the iPhone ended in less than an hour of them going on sale.
  • Apple sold 5 million units in the first 24 hours.
  • Unshipped product don't count as sales.

If was say that all 2 million units from the first 24 hours we re delivered on Friday then we find the stores account for 3 million or 60% of the unit sales. But we know those 2 million were not shipped so we have to take a smaller number which is where the estimates come in. If we assume that 1 million were ready for online sales for day one delivery then we have stores selling 80% of the units.

Anyone want to figure out how many units per store on average were moved this weekend?

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post #57 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:08am
Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.
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post #58 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:10am
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.

I think you forgot your sarcmark.

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post #59 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.

You could've truncated that post by saying: "I've been an Apple user since..."
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post #60 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:19am

 

 

What do you think of it, Mr Steve Balmer ?

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post #61 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:26am
these guys are saying pretty much what I'm saying.

http://www.macrumors.com/2012/09/24/analyst-says-perhaps-millions-of-iphone-5-pre-orders-still-in-transit-not-included-in-announced-sales/
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post #62 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:27am

22 more countries on the 28th, plus the time for any additional units to ship to current counties before then. 10M this quarter is a possibility, again it'll be a supply side problem.

 

Once it all calms down, we'll have another release on our hands with the "iPad mini"... if only that could make cellular calls lol.gif

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post #63 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.

That's nonsense! These made up numbers don't mean much.

First, it doesn't look as though the maps problems account for too much of a problem as far as the stock goes. And then, the market is down today, especially tech stocks. Lack of NFC is one thing that people do t care about in the least, as it‘s a failure so far

I doubt you even have an iPhone. Your post points to that pretty well.
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post #64 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

these guys are saying pretty much what I'm saying.
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/09/24/analyst-says-perhaps-millions-of-iphone-5-pre-orders-still-in-transit-not-included-in-announced-sales/

 

 

I hope so, but also a covering-my-ass tactic to keep their reputation. It would be interesting if the shipping partners were the bottleneck and not the supply side.

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post #65 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:31am
Can they crank out 5's as easily as they did 4's? Since most stores are out of stock and Apple's website says 3-4 weeks for shipping I'm assuming they sold everything they built. So either there are supply constraints or they underestimated the demand and didn't build enough. I'm assuming its the former.
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post #66 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:38am
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post


I hope so, but also a covering-my-ass tactic to keep their reputation. It would be interesting if the shipping partners were the bottleneck and not the supply side.

I don't think so. I've been thinking the same thing they have, as you can read in my other posts here. I just think its difficult to sell more than a certain number over the same period of time, when just three days are taken into account.

Why would there be over 2 million Pre orders, and then "just" five million for the weekend? That makes little sense, if a lot more "could" have been sold. At some point, there could be saturation, and everything else would be more ordering, but less actual final sales.

Remember that there were problems with Sharp delivering screens until the very last week. That could have limited the number available. There were other shortages we read of for other parts. Apple doesn't like to talk about this, whereas other companies would be detailing every minor delay.
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post #67 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Can they crank out 5's as easily as they did 4's? Since most stores are out of stock and Apple's website says 3-4 weeks for shipping I'm assuming they sold everything they built. So either there are supply constraints or they underestimated the demand and didn't build enough. I'm assuming its the former.

1) iPhone 5 compared to iPhone 4 could be on par with their difficultly, but the 4S was probably easier since they had a year's experience with the basic form. the 5S will probably do the same.

2) For all "intensive" purposes they sold all they could make but stores do keep a small number of devices of each SKU on hand in case a buyer has a dud model. It's one thing to turn a customer away because you've sold out but quite another to turn a customer away that has a non-functioning phone they just bought.

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post #68 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:46am
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.

 

 

I think you are too kind for Apple. You forgot :

 

- scuff gate (1 Million)

- Foxconn riots (1 million)

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post #69 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:51am
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
It's one thing to turn a customer away because you've sold out but quite another to turn a customer away that has a non-functioning phone they just bought.

 

Like Best Buy did.

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post #70 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:53am
I'm curious to know how many have pending orders that haven't shipped yet and aren't in transit? Apple wouldn't be counting those as sales. I know I'm in that boat and know of a couple other people who are too.
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post #71 of 103
9/24/12 at 8:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post

 

 

I hope so, but ....

There nothing to hope. It is pretty much certain.

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post #72 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:09am
I'm curious if the 5 million number includes the pre-orders that started the week or two before? They had 2 million pre-orders just in the first 24 hours of launching those. I would assume something like 5 million pre-orders over the remaining pre-order period alone%u2026 If this 5 million is on top of that? Wow...
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post #73 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

1) iPhone 5 compared to iPhone 4 could be on par with their difficultly, but the 4S was probably easier since they had a year's experience with the basic form. the 5S will probably do the same.
2) For all "intensive" purposes they sold all they could make but stores do keep a small number of devices of each SKU on hand in case a buyer has a dud model. It's one thing to turn a customer away because you've sold out but quite another to turn a customer away that has a non-functioning phone they just bought.

Did you purposely misstate "for all intents and purposes"? I think most retailers sold all of their stock and forcing people to go to Apple with any defective devices.
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post #74 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:23am
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

I'm curious if the 5 million number includes the pre-orders that started the week or two before? They had 2 million pre-orders just in the first 24 hours of launching those. I would assume something like 5 million pre-orders over the remaining pre-order period alone%u2026 If this 5 million is on top of that? Wow...

It's a good question actually. I supposed it does include them, but if they are only including sales as phones shipped to consumers, or sold "in hand", then likely many of them wouldn't be included, only those that had been shipped, and billed. What percentage that would be, I have no idea.

But they did say 2 million sold for the preorders, before they had a chance to ship out.
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post #75 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:28am

300 physical stores setup for the "stack and quick-swipe" parade… I've seen how they manage the big releases. It's pretty efficient. Easily a thousand transactions an hour, if not more than that.

 

I don't see 5 million being a problem, even if they physically had the stock. But this is a combination of physical locations, online sales, reseller sales, etc. I'm not sure if the 5 million number includes the "pre-orders" we saw previously (2 million in the first 24 hours? And one assumes much more while running up to launch), but I'm going to assume it doesn't...
 

I think they could have counted a few million more sold if they had the stock. There is a 3-4 week waiting period for ALL models currently. That 3-week gap in itself represents at least a few million units sold but not yet shipped (and so not yet counted as sold by Apple). You can bet if it was Samsung, or Amazon or Motorola, they'd be counting the outstanding "waiting for stock" orders too.

 

So, yes, perhaps the launch weekend sales of 7 or 8 million DID happen, they're just not counted yet as they couldn't deliver them right away.

 

Again I wonder about the original pre-orders, and if they're counted into the "launch weekend total". I'd love to know a first weekend number including pre-orders.

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post #76 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Did you purposely misstate "for all intents and purposes"?

I put it in quotes and italicized it. I had hoped that would make my intention obvious.

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post #77 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post


WSJ:
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.
Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.


The analysts had no idea what quantity Apple had available for sale so for once they can't be blamed for an incorrect projection. Apple basically sold all that they had available and the 5 million delivered doesn't included backorders.

Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

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post #78 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by umrk_lab View Post

 

 

I think you are too kind for Apple. You forgot :

 

- scuff gate (1 Million)

- Foxconn riots (1 million)


don't forget

--Chinese "slave" labor (2 MM)
--Jobs would be disappointed (1.5 MM)

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post #79 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.

 

Good! More for the rest of us! Shorter wait times. Now I'll get my new phone twelve seconds sooner! Woo hoo!

 

It isn't like you're going to "suffer" by holding onto the iPhone 4 awhile longer. My 3GS is only now starting to show some battery-time slippage, but is otherwise a FINE phone (and iOS 6 ready, go figure!). I'll probably make the iPhone 5 my next phone. In a month or two maybe… no hurry. And by then I'm sure they'll be plentiful and in stock, Maps (gasp! SCANDALOUS!!) will be in much better shape, and NFC? My personal-urban-dictionary shows that stands for "No-one F'n Cares" ...

 

Oh and fingerprint scanning? Apple is probably doing one better. Haven't you seen the face and voice recognition stuff they're working on? Yeah… fingerprints are SO "Microsoft in the 90s"… please!

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post #80 of 103
9/24/12 at 9:57am
Quote:
Originally Posted by simtub View Post

In other news, apple didn't announce that 5 million iPhone 5 users now have a crippled maps app

Who forgot to deploy the anti-troll spray?

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