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October is best month of the year to own Apple stock - report

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
Historically, October has been the strongest month for Apple stock, and one analyst believes that trend will continue in 2012.

Brian White with Topeka Capital Markets likened Apple to hall of fame baseball player Reggie Jackson with the nickname "Mr. October." He noted that over the past 9 years, October has been the best month of the year to own Apple stock.

Since 2003, AAPL stock has risen by an average of 10 percent month over month. The company only saw one October where its shares slid, in 2008.

White believes this October could be even better, with strong sales of the iPhone 5 and expected new opportunities, like the rumored "iPad mini."

"In our view, the recent pullback in the stock and rising chorus of investors and/or market pundits trying to call the top in Apple is another positive indicator that sentiment has shifted and the stock is preparing to make another big leg up," he wrote in a note to investors.

Unboxed


White is particularly bullish on the new iPhone 5, which he said is seeing "overwhelming demand." He said that a typical iPhone launch has five phases, and Apple is only in phase two, which gives the company plenty more room to grow.

But beyond Apple's latest handset, he sees even more coming in what he called an "exciting period for Apple." That's expected to include the debut of an iPad mini this month, a new larger iPad model on the horizon in early 2013, and the likelihood of an iPhone 5 debuting with China Mobile, the largest carrier in the world.

Topeka Capital Markets has maintained a 12-month price target of $1,111 with a rating of "buy."
post #2 of 15
My analysis results in a forecast of $1,112. Why is Topeka low-balling their numbers?
post #3 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post

My analysis results in a forecast of $1,112. Why is Topeka low-balling their numbers?

I think he's being sober, while you're in pump-and-dump territory......

post #4 of 15
I was thinking $1,112.43
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #5 of 15
It's easier to have a good October given it's had a 5% pullback since the high in late September.

I'm going to guess that it ends the month (after the Oct 24 conference call) in $720 range, which would be 8% up from the 667 close on Sept 28. Of course, if the conference call disappoints then we could be back at $650.
post #6 of 15
70% of Apple profits and 50 % of its revenues come from the iPhone. The iPhone5 is selling is higher volumes than iPhone 4s, etc. However, the market probably feels with that the surge is not sustainable over time. Sales will peak on the Dec Q and sustain for another Q as foreign markets like China get the iPhone5. China Mobile could extend this surge, but Apple would have make the effort of deploying their version of LTE/TD-SCDMA. Apple played prima donna and waited too long. Even without an agreement with China Mobile they could have sold TD-SCDMA phones at full price. Now there are a bunch competitors like Lenovo, Samsung, etc.

The iPad Mini could become hybrid phone/tablet and sold via carriers with a BlueTooth headset. Most people use smartphones for data with little use of voice. Sell it via carriers with a plan and subsidy. $199 anyone?

Add the concerns of the fiscal cliff and investors are dumping AAPL along with the rest of the market, even at low PEs.
post #7 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

70% of Apple profits and 50 % of its revenues come from the iPhone. The iPhone5 is selling is higher volumes than iPhone 4s, etc. However, the market probably feels with that the surge is not sustainable over time. Sales will peak on the Dec Q and sustain for another Q as foreign markets like China get the iPhone5. China Mobile could extend this surge, but Apple would have make the effort of deploying their version of LTE/TD-SCDMA. Apple played prima donna and waited too long. Even without an agreement with China Mobile they could have sold TD-SCDMA phones at full price. Now there are a bunch competitors like Lenovo, Samsung, etc.
The iPad Mini could become hybrid phone/tablet and sold via carriers with a BlueTooth headset. Most people use smartphones for data with little use of voice. Sell it via carriers with a plan and subsidy. $199 anyone?
Add the concerns of the fiscal cliff and investors are dumping AAPL along with the rest of the market, even at low PEs.

 

I think it's slightly more than that - it's most like 85% of Apple's entire profit and 75% of Apple's revenue.

 

If Apple goes back to it's $705 peak, I'll short Apple.

post #8 of 15
And what DAY is the best day to own Apple stock?

Any day.
post #9 of 15
I was hoping to buy more at 650 but I missed. hopefully more negative blogophearic thetoric will get it down again so I can make a bit of profit heading into the next Qtr. My ride on Google was an unexpected bonus too
post #10 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post

And what DAY is the best day to own Apple stock?
Any day.

No, actually I believe that mondays are better than fridays usually.

post #11 of 15
Personally I've found all months are good to own AAPL, every month in fact for the last decade and a half in my case, only wish it were even more months / grin.
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
post #12 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post

My analysis results in a forecast of $1,112. Why is Topeka low-balling their numbers?
I think he's being sober, while you're in pump-and-dump territory......

"pump and dump"

I just love Americans, and their sayings!
post #13 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

70% of Apple profits and 50 % of its revenues come from the iPhone. 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by tooltalk View Post

I think it's slightly more than that - it's most like 85% of Apple's entire profit and 75% of Apple's revenue.

First, there's no way to know what proportion of Apple's profits come from the iPhone. Apple reports neither operating income nor net income by product segment.

 

Second, tooltalk, in the first three quarters of this fiscal year (i.e., it includes the Christmas quarter from 2011), 52.6% of Apple's revenues came from ''iPhone and Related Products", according to its most recent 10-Q. Nowhere near your (unsurprisingly fraudulent) numbers. Stop spreading nonsense.

post #14 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by tooltalk View Post

 

I think it's slightly more than that - it's most like 85% of Apple's entire profit and 75% of Apple's revenue.

 

If Apple goes back to it's $705 peak, I'll short Apple.

So you don't even know the breakdown of Apple's profit and revenue, and you're going to jump in and short the stock? Be sure to tell us when you do - or are you just talking big?

post #15 of 15

Quote:
Originally posted by ajitmd

"investors are dumping AAPL along with the rest of the market"


What tape are you reading? The market is at a four year high! Who is dumping? You perhaps? At least get you facts straight before posting.

APPL is 6% off recent highs. Hardly being dumped. Lets see where it is in a few weeks prior to 4Q earnings report and after iPad mini intro lol.gif .

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