Launch of 'iPad mini' could push total holiday iPad sales to 30M

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aizmov 

What are the chances of their being a retina model next year?

100%, in my opinion.  It'll be the 'refresh.'

Originally Posted by leighlee 
rumor to announce on Oct. 10th? is it for sure? i can't wait. BTW, found that ipad mini parts have already been leaked.

http://www.etradesupply.com/apple/ipad/apple-ipad-mini.html

So what happens when none of those parts and accessories work with the new device? Does your company just get sued?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

So what happens when none of those parts and accessories work with the new device? Does your company just get sued?

personally i also have the same question, but know some people interesting in those leaked parts, just like iphone 5, before official announcement, people all putting their eyes on every parts leaked.

Originally Posted by winstein2010 
My prediction: $199 with 1 yr AT&T data contract.

My prediction: AT&T kicks all their data plans up by $5 a month to compensate for a new iPad, since no iPads have contracts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1983 

They talk about 21.6 million full-size iPad sales rising to 29.6 million together with the iPad Mini, I think that might be a bit simplistic. What about cannibalization of sales of the full-size iPad by the Mini? The total amount of sales will be lower I think. Even though the predicted introduction of an improved iPad (iPad-3s) together with the Mini might help sales of the bigger one. We'll see...

I agree. I have been waffling for some time about getting an iPad 2 or 3, but may go for the mini.

Or the Nexus 7 (which is getting great reviews by iPad owners). So many choices soon...with the Windows RT tablets as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by winstein2010 

My prediction: $199 with 1 yr AT&T data contract.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

My prediction: AT&T kicks all their data plans up by $5 a month to compensate for a new iPad, since no iPads have contracts.

Not that it matters... my prediction:

iPod Shuffle - $49

iPod Nano - $149

iPod Touch Fourth Generation - $199

iPod Touch - $299

iPad Mini - $349

iPad 2nd Generation - $399

iPad 3rd Generation - $499

Now, if only I were an analyst, I could make front-page news with this. I can't see a mini-iPad coming in cheaper than an iPod Touch. I get the whole Retina display and all but I just don't think it would work.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aizmov 

What are the chances of their being a retina model next year?

No one actually knows for sure that this year's model won't have a Retina display.  The idea that it will be 1024x768 actually just comes from a single, idle "musing" by John Gruber.  The blogosphere has picked that up and turned it into an solid expectation but as far as I have heard it isn't confirmed at all.  

The way I see it, there are basically two possible strategies:

1) The mini is a cheap, small, and uses last years tech, cutting corners wherever they can.  

In this scenario you'd expect it to be dirt cheap.  It would have to be priced lower than even last year's iPad as it would not be as capable as last year's iPad.  It would be competing head to head with kindle and hopefully in the $200 range. One would expect a plastic housing, non HD cameras, the low res 1024x768 screen, some kind of crap A4x or A5x processor that's "good enough" etc., etc. 

Or ... they stop the strategy of selling last year's iPads at all and  ...

2) The mini uses this year's tech and is just a smaller version of the current iPad (replacing the need for selling last year's model).  

In this scenario, it would have an aluminium back, HD cameras, a Retina display and maybe even an A6 processor, and be priced more in the $300 range. 

It looks to me like they are leaning towards option number 2 which is why I think they may be also revamping the current iPad model at the same time.  

Think how confusing it will be if they come out with a mini, also come out with a revision to "iPad 3," and also keep selling iPad 2.  Would they also keep selling iPad 3?  If they do that makes iPad 2, iPad 3, iPad 3r, and iPad mini all on sale at the same time.  They would also need to change the name of iPad 3 from it's current "the new iPad" so they could use that for iPad 4.  Even if they drop the current "new iPad" (iPad 3), for "iPad 3r" (or some new name), that's almost as confusing as the first option.  

How do you tell customers that "the new iPad" is actually different from "the new iPad" they were selling in the early part of the same year, and that the old one (now called something else), is the same model, but different?  The new revised iPad if it exists, will also look more like iPad 2 than the current "the new iPad."  You will have two almost indistinguishable iPads, but with more or less a two year gap in technology between them.  Also, what's the point of selling an almost two year old model for cheap (because it's old), when you have a brand new "cheap" iPad (the mini)?  And why perpetuate problems by selling either one or two models of the iPad with the 30 pin connector while simultaneously selling two models with the lightning connector?  

If you simply throw away all the old models and just say iPad 3r == "iPad," the new mini takes the cheap seats as simply "iPad mini," and that's the whole lineup, period.  All of a sudden everything is clear and simple. 

The downside is that it means that the iPad mini won't really be "cheap" at all, and Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses and made another high-end toy instead.  Apple always has had a blind spot when it comes to pricing though so this is hardly unusual.  The upside is that the new mini could and perhaps should have a Retina display in this scenario. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by leighlee 

rumor to announce on Oct. 10th? is it for sure? i can't wait. BTW, found that ipad mini parts have already been leaked.

http://www.etradesupply.com/apple/ipad/apple-ipad-mini.html

Most of those parts are not parts but rather crappy unauthorised headphones and cables that won't fit.  Neither of the two actual parts shown are for the iPad mini unless they've switched the headphone jack back to the bottom again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gazoobee 

 

...

 

The downside is that it means that the iPad mini won't really be "cheap" at all, and Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses and made another high-end toy instead.  Apple always has had a blind spot when it comes to pricing though so this is hardly unusual.  The upside is that the new mini could and perhaps should have a Retina display in this scenario. 

if Apple didn't price the iPad for the masses, then why is there no competition for it at its' current price point?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianCPA 

 

 

 

 

Not that it matters... my prediction:

 

iPod Shuffle - $49

iPod Nano - $149

iPod Touch Fourth Generation - $199

iPod Touch - $299

 

iPad Mini - $349

 

iPad 2nd Generation - $399

iPad 3rd Generation - $499

 

Now, if only I were an analyst, I could make front-page news with this. I can't see a mini-iPad coming in cheaper than an iPod Touch. I get the whole Retina display and all but I just don't think it would work.

I think there will be overlap at the Mini/Touch.

VerySmall/portable is worth more than SomewhatSmall/lessPortable-MoreReadable.  Lots of discussion on this (why is a laptop more valuable than a desktop...portability and the cost of miniaturization.  (why is a wristwatch more expensive than a wall mount clock?)

Pants Pocket vs big coat pocket portability

I would argue that the iPad Mini 'low end' will be 16GB at either 199 or 249, with 3g(ATT4g;-))&CDMA being $100 more, which align with your price point(s).

$199 is the price point as set by Google/Amazon.  That's a damn low pricing umbrella.  You're gonna beat the Android people into selling for a loss and/or at crapware quality levels and only Amazon can afford to do that.  Maybe MotoMobo/Google, but they appear to be shutting down that division.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Realistic 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gazoobee 

...

 

The downside is that it means that the iPad mini won't really be "cheap" at all, and Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses and made another high-end toy instead.  Apple always has had a blind spot when it comes to pricing though so this is hardly unusual.  The upside is that the new mini could and perhaps should have a Retina display in this scenario. 

if Apple didn't price the iPad for the masses, then why is there no competition for it at its' current price point?

Agree.  Apple has no blind spot when it comes to pricing.  They deliver effective end-to-end consumer quality at a price that makes it nearly impossible for this year's competition's tech to match it and make the production investment worth it.  They are laser focused on providing value at a cost at or below what others can build, and make a profit that is appropriate for a technology company.

Gazoobee:  As you stated 'Yet Again' Please elaborate on the 'failures' for Apple to make an affordable product (affordable meaning: people feel it's worth it to buy it and buy it at quantity vs other products with similar capabilities).?  In short, provide references or stop trolling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Realistic 

Only 2 days until we find out if this rumor is true.

I'm eager to find out too.  Still betting no- but hoping yes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DethByUngaBunga 

The market seems thrilled about this new iPad Mini. Sure wish I had not cancelled that sell order at ~695.

I think the market is waiting for confirmation.   Its still all rumors.

I did had option put's to protect my longs but i am still under even with that.  would be nice to get a rebound soon.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianCPA 

 

 

 

 

Not that it matters... my prediction:

 

iPod Shuffle - $49

iPod Nano - $149

iPod Touch Fourth Generation - $199

iPod Touch - $299

 

iPad Mini - $349

 

iPad 2nd Generation - $399

iPad 3rd Generation - $499

 

Now, if only I were an analyst, I could make front-page news with this. I can't see a mini-iPad coming in cheaper than an iPod Touch. I get the whole Retina display and all but I just don't think it would work.

The 299 touch has 32g.  The mini must be a value play, its the whole point about it.  I am hoping for something very light at 249$ tops so it feel the needs for a light reading devices at a low price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jragosta 


ROTFLMAO.
Yep. Apple will never sell iPods - they're more expensive than the competition. Oh, wait, iPods have something like 80% of the market.
But they'll never sell tablets at their prices. Oh, wait. The iPad is around 60-70% of the market.
Well, they'll certainly never sell iPhones. Oh, wait. The iPhone has been the #1 smart phone on the market for years.
Well, they couldn't possibly sell MacBook Airs. Oh, wait. The MacBook Air has been the top selling ultralight computer for years.
Nope. Apple will never manage to make an affordable product for the masses. /s
Maybe you mean "dirt cheap garbage made up of the cheapest components and assembled by people who wouldn't know quality if it bit them in the rear." I'd agree with that.

You are just being Mr. Meanie again of course, but what I meant was ...

- Apple makes a good 30-40% average margin on it's products

- Most other computer manufacturers deal with 10-15% 

Therefore at any time, anytime they feel like it, they *can* swallow half of the margin on almost any product they like and still be very competitive.  They could also afford to lower their overall margins across the board lowering all prices by 5-10% and still make tons and tons of money.  I have never maintained that their current strategy is unreasonable in any way, in fact it's a very smart thing that they do with their margins.  I'm just saying that anytime they want to they could easily produce a product that is much cheaper than their current pricing and yet still makes them more money than the competition.  

They wouldn't make *quite* as much money, but then they are basically swimming in money at the moment anyway. 

You of course interpreted my remarks as something else entirely.  

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff 

 

Agree.  Apple has no blind spot when it comes to pricing.  They deliver effective end-to-end consumer quality at a price that makes it nearly impossible for this year's competition's tech to match it and make the production investment worth it.  They are laser focused on providing value at a cost at or below what others can build, and make a profit that is appropriate for a technology company.

 

Gazoobee:  As you stated 'Yet Again' Please elaborate on the 'failures' for Apple to make an affordable product (affordable meaning: people feel it's worth it to buy it and buy it at quantity vs other products with similar capabilities).?  In short, provide references or stop trolling.

See my reply above.  All I meant was that their prices all carry roughly double the margins of other sellers and could easily be reduced considering the overall state of their financials.  

"jragosta" is always mis-interpreting me, but since others are also replying I guess I wasn't that clear. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by herbapou 

 

 

The 299 touch has 32g.  The mini must be a value play, its the whole point about it.  I am hoping for something very light at 249$ tops so it feel the needs for a light reading devices at a low price.

I originally thought that the iPad mini would come on short on specs and thus bring it in under $299. But, then that would mean subsequent generations of a mini iPad would either have to stay at specs that were not as good as the iPod or ofter a new price point later if the original mini lacks Retina display, enough memory, etc. and the later minis do not. But, from my little bit of understanding, Apple tends to release a product that, relatively speaking, is on the dry side when it comes to tech specs but later release better versions at the same price point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianCPA 

 

 

 

 

Not that it matters... my prediction:

 

iPod Shuffle - $49

iPod Nano - $149

iPod Touch Fourth Generation - $199

iPod Touch - $299

 

iPad Mini - $349

 

iPad 2nd Generation - $399

iPad 3rd Generation - $499

 

Now, if only I were an analyst, I could make front-page news with this. I can't see a mini-iPad coming in cheaper than an iPod Touch. I get the whole Retina display and all but I just don't think it would work.

The Touch comes full featured and fully loaded for $299. I imagine a Mini with less storage and possibly less features could achieve a starting price at the same $299 as the Touch but easily be seen as a completely different device. Likewise an equally equipped Mini would cost $100-200 more than the Touch.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gazoobee 

 

No one actually knows for sure that this year's model won't have a Retina display.  The idea that it will be 1024x768 actually just comes from a single, idle "musing" by John Gruber.  The blogosphere has picked that up and turned it into an solid expectation but as far as I have heard it isn't confirmed at all.  

 

The way I see it, there are basically two possible strategies:

 

1) The mini is a cheap, small, and uses last years tech, cutting corners wherever they can.  

 

In this scenario you'd expect it to be dirt cheap.  It would have to be priced lower than even last year's iPad as it would not be as capable as last year's iPad.  It would be competing head to head with kindle and hopefully in the $200 range. One would expect a plastic housing, non HD cameras, the low res 1024x768 screen, some kind of crap A4x or A5x processor that's "good enough" etc., etc. 

 

Or ... they stop the strategy of selling last year's iPads at all and  ...

 

2) The mini uses this year's tech and is just a smaller version of the current iPad (replacing the need for selling last year's model).  

 

In this scenario, it would have an aluminium back, HD cameras, a Retina display and maybe even an A6 processor, and be priced more in the $300 range. 

 

It looks to me like they are leaning towards option number 2 which is why I think they may be also revamping the current iPad model at the same time.  

 

Think how confusing it will be if they come out with a mini, also come out with a revision to "iPad 3," and also keep selling iPad 2.  Would they also keep selling iPad 3?  If they do that makes iPad 2, iPad 3, iPad 3r, and iPad mini all on sale at the same time.  They would also need to change the name of iPad 3 from it's current "the new iPad" so they could use that for iPad 4.  Even if they drop the current "new iPad" (iPad 3), for "iPad 3r" (or some new name), that's almost as confusing as the first option.  

 

How do you tell customers that "the new iPad" is actually different from "the new iPad" they were selling in the early part of the same year, and that the old one (now called something else), is the same model, but different?  The new revised iPad if it exists, will also look more like iPad 2 than the current "the new iPad."  You will have two almost indistinguishable iPads, but with more or less a two year gap in technology between them.  Also, what's the point of selling an almost two year old model for cheap (because it's old), when you have a brand new "cheap" iPad (the mini)?  And why perpetuate problems by selling either one or two models of the iPad with the 30 pin connector while simultaneously selling two models with the lightning connector?  

 

If you simply throw away all the old models and just say iPad 3r == "iPad," the new mini takes the cheap seats as simply "iPad mini," and that's the whole lineup, period.  All of a sudden everything is clear and simple. 

 

The downside is that it means that the iPad mini won't really be "cheap" at all, and Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses and made another high-end toy instead.  Apple always has had a blind spot when it comes to pricing though so this is hardly unusual.  The upside is that the new mini could and perhaps should have a Retina display in this scenario. 

I don't see the sense in them using the latest tech if that means the starting price is going to be $399.

And there is and may always be a market for the iPad 2 in education. Next year Apple could continue selling the iPad 2 for the education market because the tech won't be outdated and it would remain a very lucrative device for education moreso than a Mini.

Quote:

Originally Posted by leighlee 

rumor to announce on Oct. 10th? is it for sure? i can't wait. BTW, found that ipad mini parts have already been leaked.

http://www.etradesupply.com/apple/ipad/apple-ipad-mini.html

The so called iPad Mini data cable in your link, looks like the old 30 pin connector.  One would think it should be the new lightning type as seen in the mockups photos posted on this web site.

Originally Posted by Aizmov 

What are the chances of their being a retina model next year?

Production of the smaller iPad is said to already be underway at Apple's overseas suppliers. The device is expected to feature a screen with a lower resolution than the current iPad with Retina display.

I honestly cant imagine Apple releasing this device without retina display.  It just doesn't make sense.  Apple is migrating all their devices over to the retina display and to release this one without retina, Apple would be hounded and criticized over the lack of development in relation to the screen.  I would bet the report is inaccurate.

Originally Posted by TimmyDax 

Of course, they could go for an educational model @8GB, or even volume sales (but that would be somewhat unprecedented).

Not when books are as large as they are. I actually just see 16 and 32GB models.

Originally Posted by TimmyDax 
Depends: iBooks or just-huge-image-files Adobe-esque "books"?

Both, I guess, if you're implying the Adobe ones are also huge. A single chapter of an iBook textbook is over a gigabyte.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmyDax 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

Not when books are as large as they are. I actually just see 16 and 32GB models.

Depends: iBooks or just-huge-image-files Adobe-esque "books"?

iBooks for reading assignments could be very small indeed, and most rich media (in UK at least) is already served from school/college intranet sites, moodle etc.

An 8GB iPad "mini" is definitely a long shot, but in education it's the interaction that wins them over, not the portability (ie. presumed WiFi may be practical - iTunes U tools can be used, for interaction purposes portability is obviously maintained)

I still like the full sized iPad for education. K through maybe 3rd children's motor skills are not sufficiently developed to use small compact UI which is why all preschool learning apps have really big buttons shaped like fruit or animals. For this purpose the iPad 2 is an ideal device because the apps are not that demanding, the screen size is large enough to accommodate the big UI elements and the price is affordable. Once they get a little further along then the iPad mini might be suitable but I still think the full size is better suited for education as it more closely matches the size of a traditional textbook.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gazoobee 

The way I see it, there are basically two possible strategies:

 

1) The mini is a cheap, small, and uses last years tech, cutting corners wherever they can.  

 

In this scenario you'd expect it to be dirt cheap.  It would have to be priced lower than even last year's iPad as it would not be as capable as last year's iPad.  It would be competing head to head with kindle and hopefully in the $200 range. One would expect a plastic housing, non HD cameras, the low res 1024x768 screen, some kind of crap A4x or A5x processor that's "good enough" etc., etc. 

 

Or ... they stop the strategy of selling last year's iPads at all and  ...

 

2) The mini uses this year's tech and is just a smaller version of the current iPad (replacing the need for selling last year's model).  

 

In this scenario, it would have an aluminium back, HD cameras, a Retina display and maybe even an A6 processor, and be priced more in the $300 range. 

 

Those are valid & well-thought out options, but think it will be in the middle: A5, HD camera, plastic housing, 16 GB... for $299 (maybe $329).  32 GB for $399.  CDMA/LTE extra.

Reason: Apple will not make "crap" but their marketing/sales conclusion is that this price range and physical size caters to a critical addressable market...maybe not massive yet, but it will.  I'm guessing that plastic is not only cheaper, but may actually appeal to the potential users of this market who want a lighter/smaller device.

Originally Posted by TimmyDax 
WTF!?! That's either incredibly graphically and media-rich or incredibly stupid.

I think the former. You can download the free chapter of E.O. Wilson's Biology yourself and see. Even still, I don't think there's much excuse for that size.

But the latter is also quite possible. The overhead for the filetype seems to be inexcusably huge. A while back, I was working on transferring an all-text book from a Pages document to the iBooks format with iBooks Author. What had been 1MB is now 238MB. Only a few images have been added, though I plan to add many more. Except it's too flipping huge already. There is no justification for this.

I could see the $349 price point you suggest. Would allow for a lower price first generation iPad Mini next year at $249 and a second generation Mini - still at $349.

It would be really interesting to see a $249 price now on Mini. I'd guess that 75% of sales would be Mini's vs. 9.8" iPad if it did.