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Launch of 'iPad mini' could push total holiday iPad sales to 30M - Page 2

post #41 of 68
10/8/12 at 1:49pm
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Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Both, I guess, if you're implying the Adobe ones are also huge. A single chapter of an iBook textbook is over a gigabyte.

WTF!?! That's either incredibly graphically and media-rich or incredibly stupid.

These books, they're mainly text, right? Books of text should not be that big.

I think he is referring to the Life on Earth textbook example which was really over the top with video, animation and multimedia interactive interfaces which made it really large. But if you look at middle school sociology or science textbooks today they are heavy in graphics on almost every page. Theoretically since the new media allows more animation and video these learning apps, tools and iBooks will only become larger over time. 

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post #42 of 68
10/8/12 at 1:51pm
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Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post

Could lose a little screen size for a lot of weight for those little hands, little arms etc. though!

In that situation the kids will be sitting at a table with the iPad propped up by the smart cover. The kids section of the Apple store is well designed in this manner.

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post #43 of 68
10/8/12 at 1:53pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post

iPad M : £299 (16GB) $349
iPad M : £379 (32GB) $449
iPad M : £459 (64GB) $549
 

 

Thanks for listing the iPod & iPad prices along with your iPad Mini predictions.

However, I just can't see Apple trying to break into this new "genre" of devices at such a high price point.  If it is this high, I predict failure (i.e. very low # of sales).  I'm convinced that Apple realizes the importance of this market segment, so much so, that they're willing to compromise on some of the component performance...essentially building it to come down to a $299 or $329 price point.  My guess is that it'll be plastic, non-retina and with A5 chip....but that the camera will still be pretty damn good.  Then again, your guess is as good as mine.

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post #44 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

I think there will be overlap at the Mini/Touch.

VerySmall/portable is worth more than SomewhatSmall/lessPortable-MoreReadable.  Lots of discussion on this (why is a laptop more valuable than a desktop...portability and the cost of miniaturization.  (why is a wristwatch more expensive than a wall mount clock?)

Pants Pocket vs big coat pocket portability


I would argue that the iPad Mini 'low end' will be 16GB at either 199 or 249, with 3g(ATT4g;-))&CDMA being $100 more, which align with your price point(s).

$199 is the price point as set by Google/Amazon.  That's a damn low pricing umbrella.  You're gonna beat the Android people into selling for a loss and/or at crapware quality levels and only Amazon can afford to do that.  Maybe MotoMobo/Google, but they appear to be shutting down that division.

I suspect you may be close if not on the money other than the 199, I feel that's too low.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #45 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I think the former. You can download the free chapter of E.O. Wilson's Biology yourself and see. Even still, I don't think there's much excuse for that size.

But the latter is also quite possible. The overhead for the filetype seems to be inexcusably huge. A while back, I was working on transferring an all-text book from a Pages document to the iBooks format with iBooks Author. What had been 1MB is now 238MB. Only a few images have been added, though I plan to add many more. Except it's too flipping huge already. There is no justification for this.

OMF. One would think Pages, iBooks, not that different? Wow. That is incredible. What if it were ePub, presumably would be a tad smaller? That sort of increase in size does seem completely unjustifiable, true. Thanks
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post #46 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:07pm
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post
OMF. One would think Pages, iBooks, not that different? Wow. That is incredible. What if it were ePub, presumably would be a tad smaller? That sort of increase in size does seem completely unjustifiable, true. Thanks

 

Just exported that Pages document to an ePub. 655 KB.

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post #47 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

 

See my reply above.  All I meant was that their prices all carry roughly double the margins of other sellers and could easily be reduced considering the overall state of their financials.  

 

"jragosta" is always mis-interpreting me, but since others are also replying I guess I wasn't that clear. 

A list of Failures:  That's what I asked.  None is what I got.

 

You presented evidence the market is rewarding Apple for the effectiveness of their products and/or their marketing.  When millions of people buy something, I find your statement "Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses" to be lacking evidence.  The masses appear to be buying everything they sell.

 

While I love the thought of every person having an iPad, it doesn't make free market sense to do so? Is owning a computer/ipad/mobile phone some sort of inalienable human right?  I didn't think so.

 

It makes more sense for Apple to 'donate' several million at 'full cost' to appropriate tax advantaged gov't programs and NGOs, AFTER, the getting all the market value out of the product line. 


Edited by TheOtherGeoff - 10/8/12 at 2:26pm
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post #48 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post

Thanks for listing the iPod & iPad prices along with your iPad Mini predictions.
However, I just can't see Apple trying to break into this new "genre" of devices at such a high price point.  If it is this high, I predict failure (i.e. very low # of sales).  I'm convinced that Apple realizes the importance of this market segment, so much so, that they're willing to compromise on some of the component performance...essentially building it to come down to a $299 or $329 price point.  My guess is that it'll be plastic, non-retina and with A5 chip....but that the camera will still be pretty damn good.  Then again, your guess is as good as mine.

A £329 is possible, but is it necessary? Apple will only lose profit out of necessity; will Apple sell tons more at £299 rather than £349? No. But it may have to compromise on quality. $299 or under attempts to compete with Ama/Goog, and probably at 8GB with them. That's not where Apple wants to go, nor needs to. They also need to keep prices roughly in line with their other products or risk devaluing them. Current 16GB 7-inchers are ~$350:

http://tablets.venturebeat.com/saved_search/7-Inch-Android-Tablets
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post #49 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post

Those are valid & well-thought out options, but think it will be in the middle: A5, HD camera, plastic housing, 16 GB... for $299 (maybe $329).  32 GB for $399.  CDMA/LTE extra.

Reason: Apple will not make "crap" but their marketing/sales conclusion is that this price range and physical size caters to a critical addressable market...maybe not massive yet, but it will.  I'm guessing that plastic is not only cheaper, but may actually appeal to the potential users of this market who want a lighter/smaller device.

i disagree using the Cook Credo: Apple will not allow a pricing umbrella in the product line.  Crap not withstanding, if Apple builds an 8" device, it will be at the price point of the current market 7" devices.   Apple stated up front that 7" was a crappy user experience for the iPad (size battery life, UI).   The market is speaking that the form factor is indeed interesting to apple, and they want to continue to have a 'gateway drug' device into the iOS ecosystem.  this has to be a great interface.  My guess it will be similar to current iPad or the current iPhone, not plastic, again, to differentiate the iPad brand.

 

I see a ~$50 price premium ($249) over the current competition, but not $100.  At this level, $100 is significant.   

 

This should be a 'Zune' killer play.  make it impossible for others to make a Board of Directors approvable profit in the 4.1"-7.5" space.  Apple will be happy with 'cheap' competitors, but not one that can has a 'quality' of the iPad at a price 25% less than the iPad.

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post #50 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:25pm
Apple has never played in a race to the bottom space. I don't think they'll start now. But that's why I think this smaller iPad has to have something compelling that would warrant a premium over Fire HD and Nexus. I don't think the iOS ecosystem is enough to charge 50-100 more for the device. But the latest internals with retina display and great build quality would make that more compelling. With the smaller iPad I think we'll find out how much buying decisions are based on price vs. size. If Apple chooses to sell a smaller iPad with iPad 2 type specs AND sell it for 50-100 more than Fire HD and Nexus I don't see it selling very well. The reviews alone would be brutal and would probably put some off buying it.
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post #51 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Just exported that Pages document to an ePub. 655 KB.

That's amazing. What on earth are Apple doing!?! Embedded fonts?

I'm voting ePub and describing my diagrams!
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

In that situation the kids will be sitting at a table with the iPad propped up by the smart cover. The kids section of the Apple store is well designed in this manner.

True. Although maybe out of necessity rather than preference? The large screen size is always going to be preferable for most though, you're right.
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post #52 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:42pm
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post
That's amazing. What on earth are Apple doing!?! Embedded fonts?

 

Those would be only a megabyte or so each, wouldn't they?

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post #53 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

Crap not withstanding, if Apple builds an 8" device, it will be at the price point of the current market 7" devices.

...I see a ~$50 price premium ($249) over the current competition, but not $100.  At this level, $100 is significant.

Sorry, I don't know where your information is coming from, but Google's and Amazon's tablets are 8GB. The average price for real, for-profit electronics manufacturer's 16GB tablets is around $349. That's no premium at all, in fact.

Edit: £349 instead of $349!
Edited by TimmyDax - 10/8/12 at 3:00pm
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post #54 of 68
10/8/12 at 2:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Those would be only a megabyte or so each, wouldn't they?

Yes! What else could they shovel in? Textures? Loads and loads of markup? Giant images optimised for a full-screen retina display? What else could possibly be in there? Unless there's no reading or interpretation of the file by iBooks at all... as in it is actually completely self-contained, including generic redundant code for all "textbook" features? But that's crazy talk, right?
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post #55 of 68
10/8/12 at 3:01pm
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post
Yes! What else could they shovel in? Textures? Loads and loads of markup? Giant images optimised for a full-screen retina display? What else could possibly be in there? Unless there's no reading or interpretation of the file by iBooks at all... as in it is actually completely self-contained, including generic redundant code for all "textbook" features? But that's crazy talk, right?

 

Well, the page textures are there, so let's call that 30 megs for the retinas… 

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post #56 of 68
10/8/12 at 3:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post


Sorry, I don't know where your information is coming from, but Google's and Amazon's tablets are 8GB. The average price for real, for-profit electronics manufacturer's 16GB tablets is around $349. That's no premium at all, in fact.
Edit: £349 instead of $349!

 

You or Wikipedia are incorrect with Amazon's memory (and price): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kindle_Fire_HD

7" kindle fire HD 16GB is $199

8.9" 16GB is 299.  with 4G $499.

 

And the Nexus 7 16GB is $249 per the same source.  

 

If you have correct information, please update Wikipedia.  Oh Wait... amazon.com lists a 16GB Kindle fire HD 16GB at 199 http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008GGCAVM/ref=amb_link_365379862_3?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=17PBX5PRZWZ6MF9P3Y9T&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1398956162&pf_rd_i=507846

 

 

and the Nexus at 262 http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B008M04V1E/ref=dp_olp_new?ie=UTF8&condition=new

 

 

as well.  So... I guess... you're wrong. that was a waste of my time.

 

 

I use 16GB because in wifi as a media player, 8 hours of movies are the minimum. 8GB would crimp that number.  Also, these devices have great resolution.  Price can be lower due to screen cost.

 

'real' or imagined... Apple has to attack perception... if Google announced but not shipped a price, that's the price to address.

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post #57 of 68
10/8/12 at 4:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

So... I guess... you're wrong. that was a waste of my time.

Agreed. The original Fire has only just been released over here in the UK, and I think I probably got confused - for some reason I thought you got quite a lot less than 16GB in the new one too?

I was attempting to state how the $199 price point (or anywhere close) is ridiculously unrealistic for Apple, or any electronics company who need to make profit on hardware, at least for the time being. Amazon & Google are in a battle for the barrel scrapings, and noone in their right mind is going to be throwing their whole lot down that hope-market-share-beats-hardware-profit pit with them. Not even Sammy. For that way madness lies!
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post #58 of 68
10/8/12 at 4:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

You are just being Mr. Meanie again of course, but what I meant was ...

- Apple makes a good 30-40% average margin on it's products
- Most other computer manufacturers deal with 10-15% 

Therefore at any time, anytime they feel like it, they *can* swallow half of the margin on almost any product they like and still be very competitive.  They could also afford to lower their overall margins across the board lowering all prices by 5-10% and still make tons and tons of money.  I have never maintained that their current strategy is unreasonable in any way, in fact it's a very smart thing that they do with their margins.  I'm just saying that anytime they want to they could easily produce a product that is much cheaper than their current pricing and yet still makes them more money than the competition.  

They wouldn't make *quite* as much money, but then they are basically swimming in money at the moment anyway. 

You of course interpreted my remarks as something else entirely.  

No, I interpreted your remarks as exactly what you said. You said:
"Apple will have failed yet again to make an affordable product for the masses"

What does that have to do with Apple's margins? As I pointed out, Apple's iDevices have been selling like crazy and are leading the market. Clearly, they are affordable products for the masses.

Your attempts to pretend you said something entirely different are pretty sad.
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post #59 of 68
10/8/12 at 5:48pm
Sorry but I don't see this device being plastic, because I don't see it being marketed to just kids. What's the last Apple product that was plastic? 3GS? Clearly that wasn't what Apple really wanted to do as iPhone 4 was glass and iPhone 5 is aluminum. A plastic body with 1024x768 resolution and A5 processor would be an embarrassment to announce IMO.
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post #60 of 68
10/8/12 at 5:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post


A £329 is possible, but is it necessary? Apple will only lose profit out of necessity; will Apple sell tons more at £299 rather than £349? No. But it may have to compromise on quality. $299 or under attempts to compete with Ama/Goog, and probably at 8GB with them. That's not where Apple wants to go, nor needs to. They also need to keep prices roughly in line with their other products or risk devaluing them. Current 16GB 7-inchers are ~$350:
http://tablets.venturebeat.com/saved_search/7-Inch-Android-Tablets


Your cost comparisons are incorrect.  In USD, the wi-fi only, 16GB versions are between $200 - $300 (typically).  The $350 7" tablets that you seem to be pricing are usually the 4G versions.

But, I'll concede a bit...maybe $329-$349 would be a better price range for iPad Mini.  My point is that $399 is too high (as a starting price point for a 7.85" Apple iPad Mini).

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post #61 of 68
10/8/12 at 6:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

i disagree using the Cook Credo: Apple will not allow a pricing umbrella in the product line.  Crap not withstanding, if Apple builds an 8" device, it will be at the price point of the current market 7" devices.   Apple stated up front that 7" was a crappy user experience for the iPad (size battery life, UI).   The market is speaking that the form factor is indeed interesting to apple, and they want to continue to have a 'gateway drug' device into the iOS ecosystem.  this has to be a great interface.  My guess it will be similar to current iPad or the current iPhone, not plastic, again, to differentiate the iPad brand.

 

I see a ~$50 price premium ($249) over the current competition, but not $100.  At this level, $100 is significant.   

 

This should be a 'Zune' killer play.  make it impossible for others to make a Board of Directors approvable profit in the 4.1"-7.5" space.  Apple will be happy with 'cheap' competitors, but not one that can has a 'quality' of the iPad at a price 25% less than the iPad.


I'm not trying to be picky, but I'm not sure I understand your post... so let me address each of your points:

 

1. "if Apple builds an 8" device, it will be at the price point of the current market 7" devices.":

What?!  If the current 7" devices are between $200-$300, I say it's ridiculous for Apple to produce/sell one at those low prices.

 

2. "My guess it will be similar to current iPad...":

You just totally confused me.  In #1 above, seems like you predict a very low price point, but you also predict it will be at the high level of quality as the existing iPad?!  So you're saying that Apple should produce a 7.85" iPad Mini with the same great quality, but at an absrurdly low price point?  I don't think so.

 

3. "This should be a 'Zune' killer play":

I don't even know what you meant by this.  But assuming that you mean that the iPad Mini should be at a price point that is too low for others to go...to that, I disagree...in addition, it's not really relevant for the iPad.  You see, for the iPod, there was nowhere else to go with it and Apple knew that iPods relevant to its company value was small and getting smaller.  The iPad, on the other hand, is a more substantial profit driver and is growing.  So while I agree that all companies would love to kill all competition, I don't think that it makes business sense (at this current point in time) to increase market share at the (dramatic) expense of profits.  Maybe in 3 years, the iPad Mini may have to be offered at some ultra low price point.

 

4. "Apple will be happy with 'cheap' competitors, but not one that can has a 'quality' of the iPad at a price 25% less than the iPad.":

I hate to tell you this, but no company on the face of this earth will be able to product an appliance with the SAME quality as the iPad & offer at 25% less cost.  If they do, I'll buy 100 of them. :-)

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post #62 of 68
10/8/12 at 6:25pm
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
Sorry but I don't see this device being plastic, because I don't see it being marketed to just kids. What's the last Apple product that was plastic? 3GS?

 

The new AirPort Express.

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post #63 of 68
10/8/12 at 6:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Sorry but I don't see this device being plastic, because I don't see it being marketed to just kids. What's the last Apple product that was plastic? 3GS? Clearly that wasn't what Apple really wanted to do as iPhone 4 was glass and iPhone 5 is aluminum. A plastic body with 1024x768 resolution and A5 processor would be an embarrassment to announce IMO.


Listen, I'm certainly not saying it must be plastic.  And I'm not trying to sound like a know-it-all.  I'm just adding another very likely perspective that I think would be good for consumers as well as AAPL stock.

 

From what I understand, plastic is cheaper to produce/make and it's lighter for the user.  Most consumers in this space want a lighter and a cheaper alternative.  It's a win-win situation.  The iPad Mini market is made up mostly 3 types: 1. cheap skates; 2. those that want ANOTHER Apple device (since they already own an iPod/iPhone and a Laptop) and; 3. those that want a smaller computing device (from an iPad and a laptop...people like inspectors, travelers, or little people).

 

It's only the minority that want a 7.85", super high quality device, IMO.  I don't want Apple to launch a product that just appeals to the vocal droid geek, apple geek, ebook connoisseur, or some other vocal minority.  I apologize in advance for saying that and pissing off some of you, really I do, but it has to be said. 

 

A 1024x768 A5 7.85" device is not an embarrassment if the 7.85" device just friggin' works and is affordable!  Looking back at the iPhone 3GS, I don't recall anyone (at that time) hating the phone because the plastic made it any less functional.  If the mini device is of decent enough quality materials, seamlessly integrates hardware and software, and uses iOS...it'll be awesome.

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post #64 of 68
10/9/12 at 6:04am
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post


Listen, I'm certainly not saying it must be plastic.  And I'm not trying to sound like a know-it-all.  I'm just adding another very likely perspective that I think would be good for consumers as well as AAPL stock.

From what I understand, plastic is cheaper to produce/make and it's lighter for the user.  Most consumers in this space want a lighter and a cheaper alternative.  It's a win-win situation.  The iPad Mini market is made up mostly 3 types: 1. cheap skates; 2. those that want ANOTHER Apple device (since they already own an iPod/iPhone and a Laptop) and; 3. those that want a smaller computing device (from an iPad and a laptop...people like inspectors, travelers, or little people).

It's only the minority that want a 7.85", super high quality device, IMO.  I don't want Apple to launch a product that just appeals to the vocal droid geek, apple geek, ebook connoisseur, or some other vocal minority.  I apologize in advance for saying that and pissing off some of you, really I do, but it has to be said. 

A 1024x768 A5 7.85" device is not an embarrassment if the 7.85" device just friggin' works and is affordable!  Looking back at the iPhone 3GS, I don't recall anyone (at that time) hating the phone because the plastic made it any less functional.  If the mini device is of decent enough quality materials, seamlessly integrates hardware and software, and uses iOS...it'll be awesome.

When Apple starts doing things that are "decent enough" it's time to worry. Jony Ive has often said if they can't make something better they won't do it. I'm sorry but a smaller plastic iPad with iPad 2-like specs is not making something better. To me that comes across as a complete compromise based on price. And assuming people will buy it just because its Apple.

Honestly I don't expect Apple to compete with the $199 tablets in terms of price. They don't need to play in a race to the bottom. Make a more premium device with superior build quality/materials, display, etc. Provide a reason to be able to sell it for $50 more.
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post #65 of 68
10/9/12 at 10:24am
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post


Your cost comparisons are incorrect.  In USD, the wi-fi only, 16GB versions are between $200 - $300 (typically).  The $350 7" tablets that you seem to be pricing are usually the 4G versions.
But, I'll concede a bit...maybe $329-$349 would be a better price range for iPad Mini.  My point is that $399 is too high (as a starting price point for a 7.85" Apple iPad Mini).

Problem is all the 16GB 7-inchers from HTC, Samsung, Dell, RIM etc. introduced in the last year or so have all plummeted in price - but pretty much all were introduced at around $349 - ie. this is the level at which they would be making a profit. They haven't. So comparing a probably leading Apple device to these failures at sale prices is kinda absurd. As is comparing them to Amazon/Google, who, we know, make zero profit on theirs. My figures may be out of date, but that's largely due to a huge amount sitting on retailer's shelves, not a difference in what they would sell them for, if they could. Apple can.

I do have trouble with translating USD though tbf, being a Brit. Prices are different in weird ways over this side of the Atlantic.
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post #66 of 68
10/9/12 at 10:24am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


When Apple starts doing things that are "decent enough" it's time to worry. Jony Ive has often said if they can't make something better they won't do it. I'm sorry but a smaller plastic iPad with iPad 2-like specs is not making something better. To me that comes across as a complete compromise based on price. And assuming people will buy it just because its Apple.
Honestly I don't expect Apple to compete with the $199 tablets in terms of price. They don't need to play in a race to the bottom. Make a more premium device with superior build quality/materials, display, etc. Provide a reason to be able to sell it for $50 more.


I share your concern about "decent enough".  I just think that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.  We'll see tomorrow if there's an announcement.

I agree that Apple should not compete with the $199 tablets.  I'm thinking more like $299-$329.  I just don't know if they can build one at that price with all high quality materials.

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post #67 of 68
10/18/12 at 5:17pm
So if Ipad Mini prices @ 349.00, would we be better off going with Nexus 7 for grandkids?
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post #68 of 68
10/18/12 at 5:23pm
Originally Posted by Kenmar View Post
So if Ipad Mini prices @ 349.00, would we be better off going with Nexus 7 for grandkids?

 

No.

PhilBoogie
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