Originally Posted by MacBook Pro
Not a correction. I was simply providing evidence to support that which you already believed but had some right for skepticism as 10 nm has been touted as the "breaking point" for Moore's Law for more than a decade. Incorrectly, I incidentally believe. There is; however, something much larger at work than Moore's Law
I believe Tallest Skil is essentially referring to the same ideas I am promoting:
"Exponential growth continued through paradigm shifts from vacuum tubes to discrete transistors to integrated circuits
The resources underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded:
(i) The (ever growing) order of the evolutionary process itself. Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools for the next. In biological evolution, the advent of DNA allowed more powerful and faster evolutionary “experiments.” Later, setting the “designs” of animal body plans during the Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs such as the brain. Or to take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the next generation of computers.
(ii) The “chaos” of the environment in which the evolutionary process takes place and which provides the options for further diversity. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in the form of mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going.
Ray Kurzweil predicts the meta-trend, that Moore's Law attempts to describe, will continue beyond 2020. The result in 2029 should be a computer 512 times more powerful than Watson. If the trend continues then by 2045 we will have computers 131,072 times more powerful than Watson.
From The Law of Accelerating Returns
March 7, 2001 by Ray Kurzweil
It is important to note that Moore’s Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to Turing’s relay-based “Robinson” machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay.
But I noticed something else surprising. When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didn’t get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, there’s exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year.
But where does Moore’s Law come from? What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon? I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of this trend. Is it just “a set of industry expectations and goals,” as Randy Isaac, head of basic science at IBM contends? Or is there something more profound going on?