I predict that the real Surface killer is going to be when Apple updates the iPad next week to have an A6 processor, which will give it lower heat and huge battery life. If the iPad is a new product, it will sell like crazy this holiday season. Does anyone else think this is the obvious (but not so obvious) move for Apple to make? And they will be doing it at the end of October, which means no competitors will have time to respond before the holiday shopping season. MS Surface is going to be road kill.
Here's how I see the mobile wars: The tablet war is between Amazon and Apple (somewhat Android) and the phone war is between Android and Apple. The ultrabook war is between Apple and HP.
I don't know how the phone war comes out, but the outcome of the tablet war is obvious. It is going to play out just like the board game "Risk." The person that wins Risk is the one that gets a good position early on and then avoids the initial major battles. If your competitors engage early on, their weakness will be exposed in second or third round of reinforcements. Android, MS, and Amazon are all engaging in squabbles and price wars at the bottom end of the market while Apple is building a technology platform, a huge customer base, distribution channels, brand recognition, etc. Keeping with the "Risk" analogy, Amazon, Google, and MS are fighting over Europe and Asia and Apple just locked up North America, South America, and Australia with very few casualties. Just watch as those efforts give a huge return on investment this holiday season. This will be the round of fighting where everyone realizes that Apple has built a fortress of sales and nobody has the fire power to stop them.
If Apple doesn't update the iPad with a new processor, they're fools. A new iPad and a new iPad could be a decisive blow in this war.