Analysis: Apple stock headed for $1,000 per share - Page 2

Andy full of shit? S-T inaccurate?  Did you read today's article?  Andy called the lows multiple times in the last several years.  The PPS gains after his "Buy" calls have been outstanding.  A couple of examples:  "Buy" call when the stock hit $363 in November 2011.  AAPL went on a run to $644 after that low, peaking in April 2012.  77% PPS gain in 4-1/2 months.  Another "Buy" in May 2012 when the stock corrected down to $520.  AAPL ran up to $705 in Sept. 2012, before entering another S-T correction. A 36% gain in 4 months.

 

Andy's "Buy" call today is valuable info.  Use it.

Wow! What an excellent article! Mr. Zaky must have spent days (weeks?) bringing together all that information and data points. Just chock full of info analyzed logically. You can tell from how he writes that if the analysis said sell, he would say sell. No bias, just does what the numbers tell him. And the numbers are telling him Apple is going to $1000 so buy buy buy. Seems like all we get from the bears are vague generalities (you can tell they don't have a clue about anything like smartphone penetration worldwide) about $1000 being too big a number. Really? Why? Based on what? LMAO. 

In January, AAPL was 400. In the spring,  AAPL touched 640 and pulled back. A few weeks ago, it touched 700 and pulled back. With the new products in the pipeline: iPhone5, Mini iPad, etc. 4Q12 will be good and 1Q13 will be a blowout. The fundamentals are strong, supporting technicals that point to $700/share this year, and more than 800 in January. 2013 following 2012 will result $1000/share in summer 2013.

 

Zaky provides the numbers, the analysis, and the evidence that now is the time to buy for a $300 - 400 run-up. Then, go buy a Mini iPad with the profits.

Actually Andy Zaky's track record is perfect. 100% .So why do you say he's full...?

To be fair, his track record is perfect only because he only issues official buy ratings when every one of his indicators is screaming buy. Any thing less, and he doesn't issue an official buy rating. 

He just issued an official buy rating on Apple. Ignore it if you don't like money.

Share price may not matter, but market cap does....

 

Sure, that's why I have made 20 times the money I had this time last year on AAPL alone :)

And 7X on every single one of my clients accounts.

I'd like to know why there is so much obfuscation about Apple on Wall Street.  Exactly who are these people that are constantly trying to tear Apple down and lying to investors about Apple's potential.  It seems positively criminal.  Nobody seems to be going around shouting that Intuitive Surgical is doomed or Google's search engine is no longer useful or Amazon's margins are being stretched too thin.  Two of those stocks have reasonable P/Es except for Amazon whose P/E is practically off the charts.  Why do the bloggers continually attack Apple with all sort of complaints even as Apple products are being bought in record numbers.  Some group must have some agenda against Apple.  Are those people merely iHaters or are these people backed by hedge funds trying to corner Apple shares and Apple shorters?  Why constantly attack a company that is making good products for consumers and one of the few U.S. companies actually making money in a poor economy?

 

As well as Apple is doing I doubt the crooks on Wall Street will ever allow Apple to reach $1000 a share.  I'm sure that Apple won't even reach $750 by the end of 2012 because that's going to take about a $100 share climb which considering how much friction Apple is getting from all sides seems nearly impossible.  Every time Apple gets near a P/E of 16, some doofus starts yelling that Apple needs a correction and boom, down goes the stock.  Apple needs to get some sort of news media damage control going to squelch all those nonsense rumors that bloggers continue to make up about the company.  For Apple shares to fall $75 over something like a poor mapping app makes no sense at all, so there must have been something else going on to make investors dump Apple stock so easily in such a short amount of time.  I'm only saying that Apple's downward movement made no sense at all when the rest of the market was rising.  Apple's fundamentals certainly didn't change significantly for the stock to suddenly be considered overbought or overpriced.  As long as the stock stays within a certain P/E (15 to 16) range then it should be considered normally priced.  Apple's P/E did reach 17 in March 2012 before crashing the next month.  Apple's mean P/E this year is just a bit higher than 14, so right now it's about where it's normally been.  I can't see why Google is allowed to have a P/E that's about 5 points higher than Apple or Amazon having a P/E that's 300 points higher.

 

I'll happily take $750 a share this year and I'll just ignore those yelling $1000 by the end of 2013.  I'm sure the news media has not finished ripping Apple for all sorts of grievances to try and hold down the company's share price.  There are just too many outright lies and speculation about Apple being posted on the internet and it's really not good for Apple's reputation or shareholders.

I have read many different articles by Zaky over the years and very much respect his insights.  Here is a writer who backs up his headline with deep insightful analysis.  Have you read any articles by Doug Kass or Donald Trump that back up their views?  You haven't because they don't offer any.  

Why do you think 60% is an outlying estimate?  If past is prologue, and the iPhone5 ramp up can get through supply constraints, we may well see $1000/share long before 12 months.  Take a look at all of the patents and new features chronicled on a daily basis  on A.I.  This is the most innovative company on the planet.  15x P.E. is very, very conservative.

 

I should keep hold of your shares, and just buy more on the dips. This juggernaut aint stopping yet. 

 

Don't worry about the bloggers and news, they are your friends, without them we wouldn't get such wonderful dips to take advantage of...

Glad I didn't wait for Andy's report. Got 110 shares on margin yesterday at $627, missed the bottom by $2. Holding till January's quarterly report will be about $1200 in margin interest but hopefully about 15k in return.

Don't wait, get in before the opportunity is lost.

Regarding Zacky, I know you lot love him, and ultimately (long term) he is often correct. However his short term timing is what I have beef with. His posts often precede a sharp drop, which when dealing with a ton of leverage as I do, is not great!

 

A few of his posts have been directly before product announcements, anyone with any sense knows buying shortly before an announcement is more times than not, a great idea.

 

However, I have no issue with the timing of this particular post of his.

Exactly, don't know if you saw it, but I made this same East India comparison the other day.

The rise of global maritime commerce was the beginning of the modern age of capital, and no economic upheaval equalled it until the rise of industry, another rather impressive revolution.

This present revolution that Apple is leading is a third wave of economics based on knowledge technology. Jobs and a few others saw it from the beginning: a knowledge amplifier on everybody's desk, or in their hands, or in their pocket.

This one has no material limits as to its contents, and the processing increases are following exponentials like Moore's Law.

Yes, global, but I'd avoid the terms "monopoly" or "dominance." More like waves of enthusiasm, like those that followed the introduction of spices, coffee, chocolate and tobacco to successive populations. Apple is riding the expansion of the knowledge business, and knowledge is as much fun as it is powerful. (In this analysis, forms of entertainment are seen as forms of knowledge.) There will be room for other companies, but there will be a lot of howls about Apple's seeming hegemony. Already are.

There's no forseeable end to this market. They've barely gotten started with wearable devices.
Edited by Flaneur - 10/16/12 at 12:58pm

 

You actually just proved my point.  Apple should go up 120% in 2 years? Based on what? Nonsense, that's not how investing works.As a stockholder I'm very aware what the past performance has been and I've done VERY well. I couldn't give 2 craps about this analyst's opinion. I've read 4 more like his and 4 more opposite. If any of these guys REALLY knew, they'd be on an island drinking and not working writing opinions. Apple's a large stock not a speculative pharma stock. It will move higher, in time, as I originally said, but absent a new product line or 2, it won't stabilize at $1000 in 12 months. It surely will be over $700 by the end of the year, unless they blow up the quarter some how. The growth isn't there in refreshing current products to warrant that kind of growth. iPhone and iPad are up, but iPods are down, Macs fluctuate quarter to quarter, and iTunes revenue isn't as robust as it used to be. Most of Apple's revenue is in iPhone, outside the US. Is that really going to double in the next year?

 

 

 

This advice is free, you should probably avoid investing. 

In the Netherlands we would say: "een broodje gebakken lucht".

J.

@monstrosity @hface119 It is decidedly NOT the law of large numbers. Learn what you're talking about before you start throwing terms around like that.

As far as Andy Zacky (sic) goes, the man's loaded, primarily because of his Apple investing knowledge. If Bullish Cross *and* Asymco provide reasoned evidence of the stock's likely direction and future value, I'll probably listen to them before one of the growing number of troll-bears that are talking the stock down because the price per share is too high. Seriously??? Price *** per share *** is the focus rather than P/E??? Yeah, that's some quality thinking right there. Enjoy your Zunes, guys.

20X?  Unless you're day trading with a huge margin account I doubt you could make 20X in one year.  Even then it would be doubtful.  

 

erm, I'm on your side! Re-read my post. I said the law of large numbers is a crock of shit.

Great analysis. Glad I bought more last week.

I had some good sandwiches there, very tasty. And you are right, air is what this is about.

But hot air is what floats balloons.

 

I use Spread Betting with 20X leverage. Sell on a high, buy on a low, a few times a year with that kind of leverage cranked up and you can get silly returns. 

I don't even push the leverage that hard. Could easily have been 30X had I had the nerve.

 

A friend of mine had 20 X his initial equity within just 6 months last year. But he was in some dark places at times and taking risks well beyond that which I feel comfortable with.

Had he continued that run for the next 6 months he would have had 400 X his initial equity in 1 year...! 

Edited by monstrosity - 10/16/12 at 1:29pm

Your point was clearly that 60% up moves are (inherently) "not likely". The fact that a randomly selected time period contained a 53% up move undermined your point. Now you are trying to "walk it back". Here's some free advice: take a look at smartphone penetration (growth of smartphones as a % of all phones) and apple's penetration of the smartphone market. Apple is getting a larger and larger share of a constantly growing market with like 98% left to go world wide. $1000 will be easy by end of 2013, if not sooner. $5000 will take a few years, but it will happen. Wish you could go back in time and invest in Standard Oil when it was just getting started? Here's your chance.

What does that mean?

 

They give you 20X margin? 

 

If you have $10,000 in cash, you can buy shares for $200,000?

 

Yeah. $200,000 is correct. 5% margin. Which equates to 20 X that which you could previously afford to buy(with plain jane shares).

 

Currencies are even 'better', I can buy $200,000 with just $1k then swap them for GBP at a later date when the exchange rate is in my favour.

LOL. Let me get this straight. You're going to tell ME what MY point was?? Got it. No, the previous moves helps underline MY point, yes 60% moves are unlikely in large stocks but not impossible. In fact Apple is only up ~10% or so in the last 6 months. Sustained moves that way are definitely not likely and since the longer curve is much steeper and it is even MORE much less likely. I'm walking forward, you're walking in circles with blinders on. 

 

 

Perhaps you should. Outside of the US particularly, Apple is getting stiff competition by Android, like it or not. That landscape will intensify going forward in addition to other players (Windows, Blackberry reboot which is still very popular in places), not decline, meaning it will only be harder for Apple to maintain that growth. Never mind the supply chain logistics of producing devices.

 

 

 

Not really actually. I live in the present. But I bet you wish you could have my Apple portfolio, ha. Wait, why am I wasting my time on someone with 5 posts again? /ignore

When apple sells 200M iPhones per year (next year?) and what is it now $400 profit oper phone> , you do the arithmetic, that is one heck of a jump in sales and revenue. Remember Apple is heavily owned byinstitutions not fanboys. So once the rality ofd the iphones sales gets announced the proce will start heading up. Wioth the usial dat trading pepfit making boucing up and down all over the pace on ist way up. I leave short term profit making to the experts. btw I'm have a long 2 year position in Apple. I gues the time to start reducing and re-balancing my postion will be once the price gets to 1100. or when everyone is buying it and bleating it is a guaranteed profit. Just watch folks. I think once it gets to over 1000 then is the time to start trading it as it rolls.

I must admit my postion is too heavily weighted in Apple right now. I may have to reduce my position next year. But the way it seems to me this is really the time to hold on to it and ride it up.

Andy's analysis of AAPL has been consistently excellent.  Great work again with this article, thanks Andy!

If Apple had done a 10-1 split a year ago, and was now trading at $63-$64 a share today, and Andy posted an article saying "Apple's going to $100 a share!" it wouldn't even get a comment... because it is no big deal.

It is the fact that Apple hasn't done a split that has people so confused. They think $600 a share is a lot of money for a single share and there's no way anyone will be paying $1,000 for those same shares! I mean, you could buy a used car for that!

Yet this is the same as saying "There's no way anyone would pay $100 a share! You could give your grandkids a card with that in it!"

It's totally silly.

The reality is this-- people are financially illiterate. This is why it's easy to make money with stocks like Apple. Not that Apple isn't one of the more rare, better managed companies.

The PE is low. Whether the PE will expand or not, who knows. It is certainly expanding these days, but how far it will go doesn't matter.

Apple is going to grow by %60 in the next year.

Those who think this is silly are the same people who a year ago, when Apple had just hit $400, would say "Apple at $600? By April? Impossible!"

And they were wrong.

I've always found that free advice was worth every penny I paid for it.

 

You cannot provide a single argument to support that, can you?  Seriously, I'd like you to try.

 

People think that somehow, when a company reaches a Billion dollars it has to stop growing, because no company ever before has been worth a Billion dollars.

 

Oh, wait, we're talking a Trillion dollars this time.  Well, that means its totall different, right? 

 

Nonsense.

 

Hell, the dollars aren't even the same-- every year the dollar declines in value, and lately that decline has been dramatic.

 

If you want to make this argument, show that Apple has saturated its markets.... which will be kinda funny given the state of the Phone and Tablet markets right now, as well as Apples %90 share of the PC market, no wait, that was %15 share of the PC market. 

 

You guys just repeat this nonsense and you *don't* make arguments because you can't.  You know nothing but you believe what you've been told. 

 

Well, financially illiterate, this is why you didn't buy Apple when it was at $13 and had $6 in cash per share.

 

Now you think $600 and $100 in cash per share is "Expensive" for a company growing at %40 a year (or more.) 

Really?  Then you have no sense. 

 

The value of the advice depends on the quality.  Rejecting it based on the source is like saying you can't think for yourself.

It's so psychological. If they did a 10 for 1 stock split and the target was $100 everyone would think that was reasonable based on the analysis.

I'm going to keep loading up on Apple stock while it stays within this P/E ratio. If it doesn't go up, I'm buying low. If it gets to $1000, I'll pair back and take some gains off the table.

Sounds like a good deal. I only get 2 X margin and 4 X margin for daytrades.

 

I gotta admit though, 20X margin sounds pretty scary. Aren't you worried about a margin call? There are periods where AAPL declines.

 

ko024, while I agree that the term is probably misused, and may have been misused this time as well.   There is still a relation to the "law of large numbers" and the statement that Apple will plateau (ie will not rise indefinitely.)  The relation is that if make the reasonable assumption that the Apple's average stock price (over it's entire existence... future and past) is finite then it will "plateau" at some point.    I'm not saying that point is higher or lower than $1,000.... I'm just staying that in order to have a finite average stock price it can not be monotonic from this point forward.

 

But I agree with your general statement.  "law of large numbers" does not indicate when the plateau would occur (or its value.)   It does speak to the notion that finite averages exclude monotonic increasing functions.

Kass? he's the guy who unequivocally stated Apple had topped when it was $90 per share.

 

"Apple is Doomed"®.

 

...Surely they have the registered trademark on this by now.

 

Independent thought and critical reasoning are not allowed. You will be absorbed.

 

Mark your calendar!

 

I've have had a margin call quite a few times, my broker is pretty good and I can eat into that margin without them selling any of my Spreads. I get a little nervous at times, but have been watching AAPL for nearly 20 years and have got pretty used to the movements. I only ramp it up when I'm sure of a rise (such as today), but it means I no longer do much IOS programming as I have to watch the stocks constantly, which is a shame.

Yeah... I never said otherwise.