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Every five 'iPad mini' sales projected to cannibalize one full-size iPad - Page 2

post #41 of 83


"Every five iPad mini sales projected to cannibalize one full-size iPad"?

 

Maybe, but that's pure conjecture. We do know, however, that for every 5 iPad mini you see in the wild, there will be maybe one Android tablet sighted.

post #42 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

 


Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.

Correct it is BS guess, but it is ok to talk about and guess.

 

If I were to 'guess' it would be a little larger percentage... 50% or more cannibiliaztion. Why... price, pure and simple. For the 80% of tasks of email and web browsing etc... the 7.8 will be fine.

Gene may have had  analyses in the past that were in error to eventual reality, but from what I understand, he does follow a scientific method.  It is not pure fantasy, and a lot of market research is based on the fact of asking someone right after they buy something (or if they went to look at it and decided not to trigger a purchase), If a smaller device would have triggered a sale instead your decision.  

 

Apple, Personally, are backtracking on their original 'sandpaper for fingertips' statement, in that, this is a modal niche that the market is defining and chinks a gap between the iPod and the iPad classic.   The pricing at this level is such that potential iPad buyers see an alternative value.   Apple needs solution that is 'not so big' and 'not so expensive.'  Market demands it, so Apple responds, for the most part, to eliminate the competition at this level, so they are not being 'ecosystemed' out of Apple.

 

20% cannibalization is about what I thought (30%) in that Most people who have bought iPads have  them, and only those who didn't buy them for whatever reason are left.   only 20% are 'buying now' because they want a bigger device than a iPhone, but are compromising on size to get an iPad (2 most likely) for a bigger need.

 

Given that I 'gave' my iPad to my wife (as her iPhone was too small for her to browse), i'm cramped on an iPhone 4s screen for mobile browsing.   The thing I need is a device that allows me to iPad only apps to display, but at a low price, as my MB is find for big stuff, and my iPhone is fine for most everything else.  I would guess the iPad Mini would be my 'coat pocket' device for reading and movies, and my phone would be more 'ultra mobile'

 

But I'm one person.  I do think that a vast majority of people haven't got an iPad because that $500 is too expensive for a 'book reader,' but they are invested in the ecosystem (iTunes/iPhone), and prefer the iOS experience to Android/Kindle/Nook.

post #43 of 83
It is better to cannibalize your own sales than to have someone else steal them from you.

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post #44 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

I would argue that a BMW with plexiglass instead of glass would actually be a bad design, whereas a plastic iPad would actually be a boon to the end user.  

Part of the attraction and indeed a part of the design of a BMW is that it's a high end luxury machine, a "precious" and coveted device.  I'm sure Apple would argue similarly for it's iOS devices, but it makes no sense in the context of what they are.  If mobile devices are designed to be ubiquitous (they are), and if they are expected to be even more prevalent and more widely used than a computer desktop or laptop (they are), then they shouldn't really be thought of as precious jewels at all.  They should be "chuckable," resilient and lightweight.  Plastic is perfect for this.  

It's no surprise that overall, the biggest area of complaint from users over Apple's iOS devices has always been durability and this very "preciousness."  

Apple wants to own this market and dominate it, but they act like they are still aiming for the 10% of elite users at the top in terms of their product design. 

I'm beginning to think you might be for real, and just suffering from the tactile equivalent of a tin ear.

One of the great things Apple is doing is setting a new standard for how things should feel. I think it's great that little kids are getting to know glass and matte aluminum in their hands along with the usual primary-colored polymers.
post #45 of 83
It is amazing that not only is he able to predict buying paterns for an unreleased product, but that the ever observant commentors here can correct him by pointing to specs that are not yet known.

If Apple releases a "high end mini iPad" with the top end chip, retina, and and 64 gigs and full connectivity as part of the product matrix, I will spend the hours between release and when it arrives at my door step laughing long and loud...
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post #46 of 83

I don't think I'm alone in feeling that a 10-, 20- or greater fold markup on flash memory prices is unacceptable to consumers.

post #47 of 83
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post
I don't think I'm alone in feeling that a 10- to 20-fold markup on flash memory prices is unacceptable to consumers.

 

Probably not, but you're in the minority and wrong, as shown by sales.

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post #48 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Probably not, but you're in the minority and wrong, as shown by sales.

I am not wrong to feel that way. I am in the minority only by pure ignorance of the general public. So let's help get the word out, ok?

 

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post #49 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Probably not, but you're in the minority and wrong, as shown by sales.

And somebody who knows more than I do about hardware ought to look into the real cost of adding more flash memory to these devices. I mean it isn't just a matter of plugging in another chip. I would think there'd have to be a different main board design and a different line for each configuration, no? Plus the inventory variables to be managed for the different lines.

It's just cynicism first, ask questions later for some of these tough customers.
post #50 of 83
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post
I am not wrong to feel that way.

 

Oh, no! But you're wrong in that consumers find it unacceptable. 

 

I think that if Apple cut their capacity upgrade prices in half, that'd be awesome. I also think that it wouldn't do enough for sales of the higher capacity devices to offset the lost revenue. 

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post #51 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Oh, no! But you're wrong in that consumers find it unacceptable. 

 

I think that if Apple cut their capacity upgrade prices in half, that'd be awesome. I also think that it wouldn't do enough for sales of the higher capacity devices to offset the lost revenue. 

I didn't say all consumers. In fact, I acknowledged that I'm in a minority.

You're right, it's all about making money, and the more ignorant consumers are, the more likely they are to over-pay.

If you really think it would be awesome, then put some pressure on Apple.


Edited by Cpsro - 10/17/12 at 12:01pm
post #52 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


And somebody who knows more than I do about hardware ought to look into the real cost of adding more flash memory to these devices. I mean it isn't just a matter of plugging in another chip. I would think there'd have to be a different main board design and a different line for each configuration, no? Plus the inventory variables to be managed for the different lines.
It's just cynicism first, ask questions later for some of these tough customers.

Yes, it takes a whole lot more engineering and a completely new mainboard to support more memory. For instance, if I want more memory in my Mac Pro, I have to buy a whole new computer. Oh, wait. That's my MacBook Pro retina.

Yes, someone who knows more about hardware than you ought to look into this and report back.

post #53 of 83
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post
If you really think it would be awesome, then put some pressure on Apple.

 

What'm I gonna do? I like the highest capacity stuff. lol.gif

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post #54 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

Yes, it takes a whole lot more engineering and a completely new mainboard to support more memory. For instance, if I want more memory in my Mac Pro, I have to buy a whole new computer. Oh, wait. That's my MacBook Pro retina.
Yes, someone who knows more about hardware than you ought to look into this and report back.

Or you. You do realize that there is a bit more room in your MacBook? Would you like to try to insert a new card in your iPad?

And what about the different assembly lines for the different options? Care to diagram the logistics? Don't forget the colors and connectivity options.

You are looking only at the cost of the memory chip wholesale, aren't you. That's beneath laughable.
post #55 of 83
What I'm interested in is how many garbage cheap PCs will these minis keep off the market? That's true progress.
post #56 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

What'm I gonna do? I like the highest capacity stuff. lol.gif

You like the high prices, too.

post #57 of 83
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post
You like the high prices, too.

 

No, not… no. 

 

But the only way I can change things is get together a group of people able to manufacture NAND chips for obscenely lower prices, causing it to be completely infeasible to charge however much for upgrades or… convince people to not buy the stuff. But if I want a capacity and can afford it, I'll buy it, so the latter seems like it'd be hypocritical. 

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post #58 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


Or you. You do realize that there is a bit more room in your MacBook? Would you like to try to insert a new card in your iPad?
And what about the different assembly lines for the different options? Care to diagram the logistics? Don't forget the colors and connectivity options.
You are looking only at the cost of the memory chip wholesale, aren't you. That's beneath laughable.

Oh, it's so complicated!

Wholesale is likely more than Apple pays. And a 5-fold markup over wholesale is ordinarily enough to make a very good profit.

post #59 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

Oh, it's so complicated!

Wholesale is likely more than Apple pays. And a 5-fold markup over wholesale is ordinarily enough to make a very good profit.

    The sad part is you can't just go buy some more memory from a retailer who charges a fair price and add it to your iPad yourself.

 

     I feel real sorry for the ignorant (or rich) people who max out the memory when they buy a mac computer and pay a crapload extra for said memory when they could have just added some inexpensive memory from another manufacturer.  Total ripoff.

post #60 of 83

It's all about margins... there must be nearly equal margins on the iPad 3 and iPad Mini.  At the end of the day it's all good for Apple, and to some degree Amazon (as long as people continue to read books using the Kindle App).

post #61 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabon View Post

It's unlikely to change my wife's and my buying habits when it comes to iPads.
I bought the first gen and my wife the second. I then bought the 3rd gen (Retina) and despite the iPad mini coming out she is going to be buying the gen 4, and so on.

You are still allowed to use the iPad 3? Amazing 1biggrin.gif

post #62 of 83
So, for every 5 ipad minis (let's assume $249 each minimum spec) @ $1245
it cannibalizes a $499 (minimum spec) sale.

So Apple will actually be up by $746 for every normal iPad that it doesn't sell.

I don't think they are panicking.
post #63 of 83

I think I have a different take than the "cannibalize" view...

 

Rather than seeing it as every 5 minis TAKING one full-size sale, I see it instead as "for every full-size iPad potentially sold, Apple is adding four more customers……"

 

Really. Lose one to gain five….? That's good math. Really good math. At least, from a sales perspective it is...

post #64 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.

That certainly is true, even if it turns out not to be true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob55 View Post

Reading books on my iPad (3) can get tiring after a while. The screen is gorgeous, but the weight seems to increase by the hour. 1wink.gif   I'll probably grab a 16GB iPad Mini (or whatever they're going to call it) just for reading books. That's assuming, or course, the it ends up being significantly lighter.

Why are people complaining about the weight? I honestly do not understand; I let it rest on my tummy, on the table, on my desk, on everywhere. Why are people holding it for extensive periods of time? An honest question.
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post #65 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

Oh, it's so complicated!
Wholesale is likely more than Apple pays. And a 5-fold markup over wholesale is ordinarily enough to make a very good profit.

Of course they pay less than anybody else in the world. But I'm saying that basing your grousing on the price of the parts alone is ignorant. You don't have a clue what it costs them to run these several options through production and inventory. Do you? Parse it out, present your figures, then accuse them of gouging their customers if you still feel you are being shafted.
post #66 of 83
ireland 2012/10/17 10:14am
Did you ever just get sick of these so-named 'analysts' guessing? Just look at their iPad 1 year 1 guesses? Embarrassing.

Yep
post #67 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Munster wants us to believe that folks would have bought the regular iPad if the mini doesn't happen. And that might be true, if they are forced to buy it for one thing like the kiddies have to have it for school.
Otherwise, he is full of crap. Folks that buy the mini in 90% of cases would not have bought the full one because it was too big etc. so the Mini would cannabalize the Kindle etc.

That's where the magic works. If Apple cut its profit per unit by half, the would get 5 halves for mini iPad versus 2 halves for the big one. That's considerable net gain.

Like you say, this is to reach a market that's not GOING to buy a full iPad. But at the same time you might sell more... Instead of Dad buying just one, Dad buys Teen #1 and later teen #2 one six months later.... Apple mops the floor in the App Store!
post #68 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

 

None of these methods you speak of are anywhere near reliable or factual.  Asking people what they feel about a product they have never seen or used (or even seen a review or advertisement for), is just ridiculous.  I realise it's done all the time, but the idea that such activities have any level of accuracy at all or can actually tell us anything meaningful is poppycock.  

 

- "Customer surveys" are notorious for being possibly the least accurate way of getting to the bottom of anything.  People lie constantly, unconsciously, and most of the time without even being aware that they are.  

I believe you are spot on with all you stated, however, much of the time surveys are stated so blandly it makes the responder confused and more likely to answer in a way in which he or she will not act in the near future... If I were to ask, "Are you planning on buying a highly desired Apple iDevice in the near future, or a fucking piece of convoluted, unintuitive Android shit?" I feel confident they will likely buy the way they responded.

post #69 of 83
It will be Retina. I guarantee it. Apple is never making an iOS device without a Retina display ever again. It would be a step back.

 

 


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post #70 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Textbook makers are gonna be excited to make two versions (and formats, etc) of every book.

 

Seriously? You realize that most of these books already flow text dynamically based on font size, correct? It's not like they're PDF's...

post #71 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

Of course they pay less than anybody else in the world. But I'm saying that basing your grousing on the price of the parts alone is ignorant. You don't have a clue what it costs them to run these several options through production and inventory. Do you? Parse it out, present your figures, then accuse them of gouging their customers if you still feel you are being shafted.

Why should I have to do that when Apple already has?

(Thanks, Judge Koh!)

post #72 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

That certainly is true, even if it turns out not to be true.

Why are people complaining about the weight? I honestly do not understand; I let it rest on my tummy, on the table, on my desk, on everywhere. Why are people holding it for extensive periods of time? An honest question.

 
I don't mind the weight at all, but (for example) NJ transit trains do not have trays, so you have to hold the device in your hands.
 

Ah, ok. So you're standing then, I presume. Yeah, then I get the point. If I were to commute by train I'd leave it in my bag and use my iPhone. Of course a lighter iPad would be better, but I cannot envision holding on to the train and 'operate' my iPad.
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post #73 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClemyNX View Post

I frankly don't see where the hell those stats come from.

Some people are paid to guess. Unless they have done a poll of survey that's all it is.

 

You can’t e.g. base this off what happened when Apple launched flash-based iPods vs. disk-based ones because the functionality trade-off is different. Where the comparison does apply is some other paid guessers claiming that Apple can’t do that well in this market because it’s already “saturated”. There’s a good reason most of the competition is in the smaller device space. Apple isn’t there yet. I don’t know if Apple has done market research (despite Jobs officially disdaining this, I would hope they have done some sanity check on how many will sell before setting the supply chain juggernaut into motion). We’ll soon know from the first day then first week response if there’s genuinely a huge pent-up demand for a smaller Apple-branded device.

 

Until then, since I’m not paid to guess, I won’t. Easy money if you can get away with it.

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post #74 of 83

I don't know why there's all this fuss about the iPad Mini, where's the iPad Jumbo?

The iPad needs to get bigger not smaller.

post #75 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evilution View Post

So, for every 5 ipad minis (let's assume $249 each minimum spec) @ $1245
it cannibalizes a $499 (minimum spec) sale.
So Apple will actually be up by $746 for every normal iPad that it doesn't sell.
I don't think they are panicking.


You're missing the "profit" part.  If Apple makes 30% of a $499 sale it's earning about $150.  It would be nice to think that Apple would have a 30% margin pricing a device at $249, but I suspect that it would be 25%, or about $62.  So you'd need to sell 5 smaller devices to compensate for 2 larger.  However, he also doesn't identify whether any sales would cannibalize the iPod Touch so the real evidence is in quarterly sales.

post #76 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

You like the high prices, too.

well, yes... it costs a bit more to buy the higher capacity, but if you need it, or use it, then it's the right way to spend those extra dollars (and I do… my 64GB iPad has only 3GB of free space. I would've paid another $200 for a 128GB iPad, and no doubt it'd have only 8GB free by now)...

 

I don't "like high prices", but I WILL pay more to get more.

 

Once you've decided to buy in at the iPad's base price, buying a higher capacity version does not add that much to the price… double capacity (32GB) for another $100… again (to 64GB) for another $100… I found the value at 64GB to be highest, right along with the higher price….

post #77 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by BARCODE View Post

I don't know why there's all this fuss about the iPad Mini, where's the iPad Jumbo?

The iPad needs to get bigger not smaller.

 

Would you buy a 13" iPad? Say, 64GB with a 13" Retina Display, for $1,000? Or 128GB for $1,200? If they actually released one, I might seriously consider it… how much would it weigh? 1.5 lbs? 2…? How would you use it?

 

But…... approaching that price point and size, why not go with something like a 13" MacBook Air instead? You'd get quite a lot of the everyday "multitouch" functionality using the trackpad… It's lightweight, offers a full-size physical keyboard, etc. etc…  so a one pound lighter iPad, full multitouch/iOS  - VS. - a bit heavier 'clamshell' Air, partial-multitouch/OS X…. interesting...

 

I think it might only be a matter of time before the Air gets a full iPad-style touchscreen… or the iPad hits the 13" size… or most likely we get some new hybrid tech that transforms the form factor further, and it all consolidates a bit further (while a few new devices fill gaps with more "specialized functions", like iPods have done)….

 

Going back to a larger iPad concept… how big is "too big" for a tablet with that form factor?

post #78 of 83
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

Going back to a larger iPad concept… how big is "too big" for a tablet with that form factor?

 

I'd buy a 15" iPad. I figure the 15" and maybe a 13" would have OS XI instead of iOS, though.

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post #79 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

Would you buy a 13" iPad? Say, 64GB with a 13" Retina Display, for $1,000? Or 128GB for $1,200? If they actually released one, I might seriously consider it… how much would it weigh? 1.5 lbs? 2…? How would you use it?

But…... approaching that price point and size, why not go with something like a 13" MacBook Air instead? You'd get quite a lot of the everyday "multitouch" functionality using the trackpad… It's lightweight, offers a full-size physical keyboard, etc. etc…  so a one pound lighter iPad, full multitouch/iOS  - VS. - a bit heavier 'clamshell' Air, partial-multitouch/OS X…. interesting...

I think it might only be a matter of time before the Air gets a full iPad-style touchscreen… or the iPad hits the 13" size… or most likely we get some new hybrid tech that transforms the form factor further, and it all consolidates a bit further (while a few new devices fill gaps with more "specialized functions", like iPods have done)….

Going back to a larger iPad concept… how big is "too big" for a tablet with that form factor?

I understand your viewpoint here, but the software is so different on each device I don't think Apple will make an iPad that is larger than a OSX-based laptop. Then again, I didn't think they would release a smaller-than-current-iPad either, but it seems they are going to anyway.
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post #80 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv View Post

 

No, I am sitting, and holding the iPad like I do a book. If there were a tray, one could lean it against the seat in front, but one cannot. Same goes for subways, btw (except there is no seat in front usually, so you have to hold it like a book.
 

 

I think I'd probably prefer a smaller iPad for train commutes, but I've ridden trains around Europe with my larger one, and it wasn't bad. Still, an 8" version would've really been perfect as a travel companion.

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