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Apple's smaller iPad forecast to become 'competition's worst nightmare'

post #1 of 232
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Tablet makers have failed to compete with Apple in the $400-and-up market segment, and a new, smaller iPad priced below $300 is only expected to make matters worse for the competition.

Analyst Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee said he believes Apple's so-called "iPad mini" will prove to be "the competition's worst nightmare." He noted that competitors are already struggling to compete against the $399 iPad 2 and $499 iPad, and Apple hitting an even lower price point will only expand its share of the tablet market.

The main question, Wu said, is whether Apple will "go for the kill" against competitors and accept lower margins to reach the $199 price point of its competitors, such as the Google Nexus 7 and Amazon Kindle Fire HD.

Wu doesn't believe Apple needs to hit the $199 price point and match Google and Amazon. In fact, he thinks Apple could sell its smaller iPad for around $350 and it would still be a success.

He noted that Apple already has a product at the $199 price point with its entry-level iPod touch, while the iPad 2 is available for $399. He thinks an iPad mini for either $299 or $349 makes the most sense for the company.

Rendering Front/Back

"iPad mini" rendering by Martin Hajek.


This week, Apple sent out invitations for an event next Tuesday in San Jose, Calif., where it has promised it will show "a little more." The company is widely expected to unveil a new 7.85-inch iPad it will sell for the holiday shopping season, as well as new Mac hardware headlined by a 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display.

The iPad mini is expected to feature a smaller bezel than the full-size iPad, and could run a screen resolution of 1,024-by-768 pixels that would allow it to run native iPad 2 applications without any modifications. It is also expected to have forward and rear facing cameras, as well as the new smaller Lightning connector found on the iPhone 5 and latest iPods.
post #2 of 232
I hope it will at least start at lower than $350. $295 might by a nice price for an entry model.
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post #3 of 232
Well $99 nexus is coming with perhaps comparable specs. Apple has to offer a $200 low margin option.
post #4 of 232
I just hope the base storage model is 16GBs. Anything less than that is ridiculous, unless it will be priced at $199 (though the 8GB Nexus 7 model doesn't sell as well as the 16GB model).
post #5 of 232

This will be fascinating to watch. The Nexus 7 is selling reasonably well and aggressively priced. The Google ecosystem is not bad. Arguably, there are not nearly as many tablet-specific apps for Android.

 

But Apple doesn't have a history of saying "here's a 7.85" tablet" and simply letting the customer choose. Their track record suggests that the iPad Air will come with a compelling appeal. Will this be the thinness alone? Can't wait to find out.
 

post #6 of 232
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Originally Posted by Rodent View Post

But the apple map app will still suck!


And you are still just a rat.

post #7 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well $99 nexus is coming with perhaps comparable specs. Apple has to offer a $200 low margin option.

Specs aren't everything. A lower powered iPad runs at the same or better than a higher speced Android tablet. The A6 and iOS are so much more efficient. Plus, anyone who owns an iPhone likely wants to stay within the iOS ecosystem. They instantly own a bunch of apps for it just because they bought them on their iPhone.

post #8 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I hope it will at least start at lower than $350. $295 might by a nice price for an entry model.

Well, rumors are that the intro price is $250. If that's true, it'll be a huge success.

post #9 of 232

The rendering looks weird. From what POV would the unit with its back facing the camera be noticeably shorter than the front-facing unit?

post #10 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimUSCA View Post

Specs aren't everything. A lower powered iPad runs at the same or better than a higher speced Android tablet. The A6 and iOS are so much more efficient. Plus, anyone who owns an iPhone likely wants to stay within the iOS ecosystem. They instantly own a bunch of apps for it just because they bought them on their iPhone.

 

That's exactly my argument. I had an iPad, but I found it difficult to find a good use for it alongside my 11" Air except reading, which it was just too hefty for. I didn't bother with a 7" Android tablet as I didn't want to have to rebuy all the iPad apps I had. The iPad Air would fit perfectly what I want out of a tablet - slots between my laptop and phone, and runs everything I already own. Heck, I don't even care if it's cheap, I'll be getting the cellular model anyway (assuming it exists) as my carrier lets you add a tablet to your existing data plan for free.

post #11 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by nonimus View Post

I just hope the base storage model is 16GBs. Anything less than that is ridiculous, unless it will be priced at $199 (though the 8GB Nexus 7 model doesn't sell as well as the 16GB model).

 

There's the strategy right there if the base model is 8GB.  They don't expect the 8GB to sell well and instead get the upsell to 16GB.

post #12 of 232
Agreed on the lower price. I think it should be no more than $249. If Apple wants to crush the competition, then it should be $199.
post #13 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well $99 nexus is coming with perhaps comparable specs. Apple has to offer a $200 low margin option.

 

Yes... because all of that other "overpriced" stuff that Apple makes is selling so poorly...

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #14 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimUSCA View Post

Specs aren't everything. A lower powered iPad runs at the same or better than a higher speced Android tablet. The A6 and iOS are so much more efficient. Plus, anyone who owns an iPhone likely wants to stay within the iOS ecosystem. They instantly own a bunch of apps for it just because they bought them on their iPhone.

 

Where is confirmation it will have a A6 SoC ? I would put my money on it getting a A5 (32nm version like in the new ipad 2). That SoC is beginning to seriously show it's age as can be seen from the benchmarks when the iPhone5 was introduced.

post #15 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well $99 nexus is coming with perhaps comparable specs. Apple has to offer a $200 low margin option.

A 7.85" 4:3 display has about 40% more area than a 7" 16:9 display. Sure, you can compare the two specs in the same way you can compare the size and aspect ratio of an HDTV but they aren't the same. This means Apple can charge more for the larger device that comes at or below the same weight and thickness.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harbinger View Post

This will be fascinating to watch. The Nexus 7 is selling reasonably well and aggressively priced. The Google ecosystem is not bad. Arguably, there are not nearly as many tablet-specific apps for Android.

Reasonably well for the tablet market or reasonably well for an Andriod-based tablet? I'm guessing a $249-$299 based unit iPad Air/Mini/iBook with 16GB storage, 1024x768 IPS in-cell display with essentially the SoC of the new iPod Touch would outsell it by a large margin and hurt its future sales.

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post #16 of 232
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Originally Posted by Harbinger View Post

The rendering looks weird. From what POV would the unit with its back facing the camera be noticeably shorter than the front-facing unit?

 

It's an unofficial rendering.

 

I think the artist meant for the back-facing unit to be a bit farther but the shadow from the front makes it look too close, making it seem like the rear unit is shorter. I look at product photography/renderings all day and notice these things too. But, again, it's an unofficial rendering and most people don't give a shit.

post #17 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post

Where is confirmation it will have a A6 SoC ? I would put my money on it getting a A5 (32nm version like in the new ipad 2). That SoC is beginning to seriously show it's age as can be seen from the benchmarks when the iPhone5 was introduced.

They might use the A6 in this device but economies of scale can only so so much. This is why we see the A5/32nm in the new iPod Touch. Based on that I'm betting that it will also have the A5 in the Touch.

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post #18 of 232

Be interesting to see what price they go for.  I hope it's $299, that'll be low enough to vacuum away a lot of sales, cause its an iPad.  They'll sell a ton of them.

 

I'm guessing the limiting factor regarding sales numbers for the holiday will be the number produced.

post #19 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


1) I believe that is 32nm. 28 is for the new Qualcomm base bands. There is no 20nm. Next year Intel should have 22nm and after that they'll have 14nm. I know of nothing with 20nm shipping today.
2) They might use the A6 in this device but economies of scale can only so so much. This is why we see the A5/32nm in the new iPod Touch. Based on that I'm betting that it will also have the A5 in the Touch.

 re 1, you're right, I editted it right away, even before I read your comment. I was being a bit too optimistic ;)

post #20 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rodent View Post

But the apple map app will still suck!

 

Yes, suck profits from the competition.

 

When does Apple get big enough to be subject to anti-trust? Maybe they will let Microsoft live just so they can dodge that bullet.

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post #21 of 232
It's not going to be called iPad Air. I wish Gruber would never have thrown that silly name out there. A starting price of 250 would be huge but if they can only offer 8GB to get there than forget it. Then start it at 300 for 16GB. Though I'd love Apple to surprise is next week with something no one is thinking of or hasn't made it through the rumor mill yet.
post #22 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

It's not going to be called iPad Air. I wish Gruber would never have thrown that silly name out there. A starting price of 250 would be huge but if they can only offer 8GB to get there than forget it. Then start it at 300 for 16GB. Though I'd love Apple to surprise is next week with something no one is thinking of or hasn't made it through the rumor mill yet.


1) When you make such a statement you should have some facts to back up this claim. Note that your claim is not the same as "I doubt they'd call it the iPad Air.' Gruber has very clearly stated why he thinks iPad Air makes more sense than iPad mini and his rationale is solid.

2) Apple doesn't have to match or beat the competition on price points because they other advantages to their products others can't compete with and that add tremendous value, like the ecosystem. There are potentially HW advantages, too, like size and weight, display area and quality, and battery life.

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post #23 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

It's not going to be called iPad Air. I wish Gruber would never have thrown that silly name out there. A starting price of 250 would be huge but if they can only offer 8GB to get there than forget it. Then start it at 300 for 16GB. Though I'd love Apple to surprise is next week with something no one is thinking of or hasn't made it through the rumor mill yet.

 

Curious, why do you think it won't be called the iPad Air? Makes much more sense than "iPad Mini", all considered, though I personally think the whole lineup will just have the name "iPad" across the board, in the same way that differently-sized MacBook Pros and Airs don't have different names.

post #24 of 232

It's not (only) about price, it's also about what the iPad Mini will offer. The event is called 'A little more'. We know it will be little. But what does the 'more' stand for? An additional e-ink screen? The missing link to an Apple TV? Both? Or something else? It's probably the 'more' that will blow away the competion.

post #25 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Barriault View Post

Curious, why do you think it won't be called the iPad Air? Makes much more sense than "iPad Mini", all considered, though I personally think the whole lineup will just have the name "iPad" across the board, in the same way that differently-sized MacBook Pros and Airs don't have different names.

I like iPad Air over iPad mini because the display isn't that much more miniature than the 9.7" iPad but it should be considerably thinner and lighter in much the same way the iPod Touch is to the iPhone. I think it will follow the same design and construction cues from the new Touch which means the top glass likely glued on to save on cost, running the same A5 ASIC, the battery being 4.39x the size of the iPod Touch for the 4.27x larger display, all in an anodized aluminum case that will come in colors that could be as many as the iPod Touch but likely less.

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post #26 of 232
$299 16GB 7.85"
$349 32GB 7.85"
$399 64GB 7.85"

$399 16GB 9.7"
$499 32GB 9.7"
$599 64GB 9.7"

All iPads come with 25GB free iCloud storage.

Smaller iPads come in white, black, Product RED. That's 9 models, possibly more colors. No cellular; HotSpot your iPhone for that. No camera, front or back, You want that, go buy a 9.7". Retina to boot.

Available today. Boom.
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post #27 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

$299 16GB 7.85"
$349 32GB 7.85"
$399 64GB 7.85"
$399 16GB 9.7"
$499 32GB 9.7"
$599 64GB 9.7"
All iPads come with 25GB free iCloud storage.
Smaller iPads come in white, black, Product RED. That's 9 models, possibly more colors. No cellular; HotSpot your iPhone for that. No camera, front or back, You want that, go buy a 9.7". Retina to boot.
Available today. Boom.

It would be great if Apple moved to a $50 for NAND doubling model but we yet to see that and I don't think they'd start that now. I also doubt we'll see the iPad (3) price drop by $100 mid-cycle, especially when they own that market. I'm also weary of 64GB coming. That said, I hope all these things do happen.

I think there is a case to be made for no cameras if these are geared for the Enterprise and Education but I think there is a strong case to be made for their inclusion. It's not difficult to disable them and inexpensive to add them so I'm going to say they will be included.


PS: This might be the first iPad where MicroSD could make sense.
Edited by SolipsismX - 10/19/12 at 8:09am

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post #28 of 232
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Originally Posted by Mike Barriault View Post

Curious, why do you think it won't be called the iPad Air? Makes much more sense than "iPad Mini", all considered, though I personally think the whole lineup will just have the name "iPad" across the board, in the same way that differently-sized MacBook Pros and Airs don't have different names.
I never use the term iPad mini either. Like you I think it will just be called iPad.
post #29 of 232

I'm mainly looking for the availability date. Been waiting for a device smaller than an iPad, bigger than a touch for my parents to use while traveling. Hoping for a release by the 26th!
 

post #30 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post
 No camera, front or back, You want that, go buy a 9.7".

So you can do facetime on an iPod, and an iPad, but not on an iPad Mini (or whatever it's to be called)?

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post #31 of 232
I hope they don't go back down the original MacBook Air route and try and sell 'less product' for 'more money'.

Remember that debacle? The MBA didn't start to sell in any realistic volume until it was priced correctly.
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post #32 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rodent View Post

But the apple map app will still suck!

time and QA will heal all wounds.

post #33 of 232

Anything with an Apple logo in any space, will be disastrous for the competition in either profits, market share, or both, all of which will be tied into Apple's superior consumer satisfaction ratings. 

 

Anything that is "more" iPad, or an extension to the iPad family in the same space, will be very, very bad news for competitors. 

post #34 of 232
I think the iPad Mini is for kids and schools. The new Touch spex may point to the Mini spex and features. The Touch is now a lean and mean and sleek machine. So Apple has created space for the Touch when the Mini arrives. Best guess for the Mini: Lower screen resolution than the Touch, front side camera only, less memory, no siri, no passbook. But it will have a bigger screen and all those apps and will sell for $200-250 to schools. So the Mini for school; the Touch for home. Adults at work can afford a full blown iPad, as current sales demonstrate clearly. Also the Mini will be lighter, brighter, thinner, faster and much more useful than the Fire or Nook.
post #35 of 232
@jason98 lmao. No, a $99 Nexus isn't coming, and even if it did it wouldn't have comparable specs, similar appeal, or as tight an ecosystem to cause worry.
post #36 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimUSCA View Post

Well, rumors are that the intro price is $250. If that's true, it'll be a huge success.


I sure hope so.  Anything above 250 will be a hard sell to the folks in the budget tablet market.  If Apple really wanted to kill their competition, they'd take a hit on this first iteration and price it at $200.  I know they won't but if they did they'd kill all their competitors in one stroke.

post #37 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

1) When you make such a statement you should have some facts to back up this claim. Note that your claim is not the same as "I doubt they'd call it the iPad Air.' Gruber has very clearly stated why he thinks iPad Air makes more sense than iPad mini and his rationale is solid.
2) Apple doesn't have to match or beat the competition on price points because they other advantages to their products others can't compete with and that add tremendous value, like the ecosystem. There are potentially HW advantages, too, like size and weight, display area and quality, and battery life.
OK I forgot to say "I think" or "IMO". I still think they just going to call it iPad. We don't have different names for the different sized MacBooks and iMacs, no need to do it with iPad.

As far as price I've always contended that if Apple produces a superior product then charging a premium is not a problem. Having said that, I don't think they can completely ignore what Google and Amazon are doing in this space. It's highly likely that Google is going to come out with a 32GB Nexus tablet for $249. I think Apple would knock it out of the park if they launched a 16GB iPad for similar price. But 8GB at $250 is pushing it.

What I'd love to see is 16GB as the starting configuration with a $250-$299 starting price point. IMO that would be huge.
post #38 of 232
If the new iPod Touch starts at $300, can Apple really market a tablet for less than that? Seems like iPad 2 will go out and the little one will start at $400. Apple doesn't go to the bottom of the market. They don't have to.
post #39 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I hope it will at least start at lower than $350. $295 might by a nice price for an entry model.

 

If those leaked prices are right, both things would (sort of) be true.  The 8GB one is purportedly $250 but the one you'd really want to buy (16GB) will be $350.  

 

So it seems like Apple is doing exactly what Wu says in a way.  They are pricing it low enough to almost be dollar for dollar competitive with the rest, but swallowing margin on the base model and pumping it up on all the rest.  Apple does this all the time in fact.

 

There is no way that an extra 8GB of memory actually cost them a hundred dollars, if the pricing scale reflected merely the increased component cost, it would be more like $50 between models.  The $250 entry model is likely at least close to "cost" for Apple with the rest having exorbitant margins, so that overall they can have their 30% margin. 

post #40 of 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

$299 16GB 7.85"
$349 32GB 7.85"
$399 64GB 7.85"
$399 16GB 9.7"
$499 32GB 9.7"
$599 64GB 9.7"
All iPads come with 25GB free iCloud storage.
Smaller iPads come in white, black, Product RED. That's 9 models, possibly more colors. No cellular; HotSpot your iPhone for that. No camera, front or back, You want that, go buy a 9.7". Retina to boot.
Available today. Boom.

Ah no. They make a ton of money off of the cellular option. Pointless to get rid of it. And hotspot drains battery from phone and is not always ideal anyway. 

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