Black and Slate 16GB iPad mini sells out in 35 hours - Page 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andre Bee 

I expect Apple to post 2 million preorders on Monday

That's too much, isn't it? It would put the little thing selling half iPhone-like quantities. That's like more than 10 million/quarter, plus sales form its bigger brother...

I think a sellout of the 16GB, albeit a little slowly (relatively, that is), indicates that customers are pretty price conscious of this form factor.  For $329, the 16GB is not a bad deal, but $429 and $529 for the 32GB and 64GB seems like a LOT (especially when you add LTE to the mix).  I wish apple would price the higher capacity versions a little more reasonably compared to the cost of the flash.  How about $50 more for 32GB and $100 more for 64GB?  That would make the prices

1. $329 for 16GB
2. $379 for 32GB
3. $479 for 64GB

The Top of the Line (non-LTE) would be under $500.

I'd be more interested in one then.

I think there are atypically large supplies of Mini's.

It makes sense that not all products for the fall event would have been ready at the same time, so some would have a headstart on production and have some stockpiling for launch.

On the earnings call Cook was confident that component shortages would not hold back iPhone and iPad sales, but he did say new iMacs would be in short supply.

So it is likely iMacs were the last thing ready and the iPad production was up and running smoothly,backed with healthy supply chain. It also contains no bleeding edge parts, so there should be few yield issues.

So that might better explain why there still a few models,  with first day delivery available.

The early white sellout I attribute to historical patterns being preferential for Black, so greater numbers of Black units where built.

This time that pattern didn't hold because 1) Black is kind of plain this time, being black everywhere and that cool edge cut is black. 2) People concerned that on black, scratches will be more evident.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 


However, the white models in higher capacity sold out quickly. Perhaps this is finding a market with a segment that simply prefers the white/silver model. I think it looks better than that black/metal model which is why I bought a white/silver iPhone this time around because I thought it looked better, perhaps that is the case here or perhaps that the smaller, purse-sized iPad in white is being bought by women who prefer that styling overall (I hope I don't sound sexist with that comment). Note: I include the additional descriptor of the metal color as I think that is important with this release.

I bought the white iPhone 5 and the white iPad mini where as before I had all black iOS devices. I was thinking with the iPhone 5 that I would not have a case so if it got a scratch it would not be as noticeable as the black/slate model. Turns out I didn't want to risk scratching it so I found a nice transparent case for the iPhone. When I get my mini I'll look around for a case. I'll probably get something like a day planner portfolio style. I didn't order the smart cover.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton 

AppleCare. It completely depends on how your gf treats her electronics. If she's careful, it is probably not worth it. Apple has a one year warranty on their products, so AppleCare basically says, if it fails during the SECOND year, Apple covers you. Some accidental damage coverage (up to two incidents) is also included for what amounts to a small deductible fee, so it also acts like a limited insurance policy. If there's a manufacturing defect, chances are that it will appear during the first year of use, so Apple's standard warranty already covers that.

I always get Apple Care+ for my mobile device but not for my desktops. The mobile devices are much more likely to get dropped since they are on the go all the time. The $50 screen replacement on the iPhone is a nice benefit although I have never so much as scratched any of my mobile devices. I still like the the worry free insurance. I almost always replace my devices every couple years so it works for me.

even tho they say sold out of both "base" models of black and white.. we can still go to our local Apple store on Nov 2 yes?

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 


You need to think of the product as a whole. Companies tend to make less total profit on the entry level model than with upgrades. Often even less percentage of profit on the low end than with the upgrade options. They factor in all projected sales to get a total profit.
What this means is that if you go with only a $50 charge for double the capacity it's not likely they'd start it at $329 but start it higher to get something like $399, $449, $499 to maintain a relative profit for all units sold. Starting at $400 just wouldn't work with the 10" iPad 2 start at that price, but worst of all you shut out a lot more people at the lower end.
And then what happens when we move to 32GB as the minimum with 64GB and presumably 128GB as the tiered stepping? Does Apple move that last one up by $100 which will piss off people that think doubling should happen for free, or do they eat that profit, too? For better or worse, their pricing structure is makes perfect sense until they can find a way to reduce NAND costs with longterm growth in mind.

I understand everything about margin and profit and I agree with you 100%.  But consumers don't necessarily see the value in those add-ons and are LESS likely to upgrade because suddenly their tiny little, cheap iPad is as costly as a bigger iPad (granted with less storage capacity).  

As a shareholder, I would like to see Apple's stock continue to climb, but I am not always convinced their stretch for immediate profit and the highest margin possible is the best thing to do for total sales and market share.  They do very well and many times my questioning of their strategies are assuaged by their quarterly results.  

No matter how many sold, it will be a Wall Street led "disaster" for Apple.  (OMG, they finally fixed the emoticons here... Unbelievable!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich 

No matter how many sold, it will be a Wall Street led "disaster" for Apple.  (OMG, they finally fixed the emoticons here... Unbelievable!)

"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?

Take a look at Amazon's home page, they quotes Gizmodo's Brent Rose, "...You just made a 7.9-inch tablet, and you're dissing 7-inch tablets as compromised? Not only that, as we showed earlier, your 7.9-inch tablet has far fewer pixels than the competing 7-inch tablets! You're cramming a worse screen in there, charging more, and accusing others of compromise? Ballsy."

Amazon left out this part, "Are. You. Fucking. Kidding. Me...." Their tag line? "Much More for Much Less."

I think Amazon is pretty sad to quote this for their homepage. If this is what your closes competitor has to do to get attention. Being a long time Apple user, Apple's next "improved mini" will make them pee in their pants. BTW, I love using Amazon but I think when it comes to technology, cheap is not the way to go.

Originally Posted by lkrupp 
"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?

It's pretty apparent they're able to do that, so my question is as follows: Who's paying them off to do this to Apple?

I already have an iPad Mini.  It's called the iPhone 5 !

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1983 

The 16GB versions have sold out but not the higher capacity ones. I'm not surprised considering how they're price. I don't think people are going to be all that interested in shelling out for high Flash capacity mini tablets unless the prices come down considerably which Apple won't do. So in a year or two, because of this I think Apple will only offer the iPad mini in 16GB variations and leave the higher capacities for the full-size iPad.

I dont agree.  I think a lot of people who don't care about having retina may go for a 64g mini for the same price of a 16g ipad4.  On top of that the 32g and 64g are where Apple gets its margins, so why would they stop making them??  I will note that the white iPad sold out of all capacity and the black one will be the end of the week-end.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

Originally Posted by lkrupp 
"Has Apple topped out?" articles are flooding the Internet as we speak. Do analysts really have that much influence? Can they take a stock up or down at will? And if so shouldn't there be a law against manipulating stocks?

 

It's pretty apparent they're able to do that, so my question is as follows: Who's paying them off to do this to Apple?

You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price. 99% of all trades for AAPL and the shares of every other large corporation are done in microseconds by what is known as matching computers located in Mahwah NJ which are controlled by algorithms which are in turn sniffed and spoofed by other algorithms, slicing and dicing large orders to attempt to fly under the radar. The days of pump and dump through press releases are gone and that technique has become completely ineffectual. Automated trading is what moves the stock, not people.

Originally Posted by mstone 
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price.

So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by mstone 

You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price. 99% of all trades for AAPL and the shares of every other large corporation are done in microseconds by what is known as matching computers located in Mahwah NJ which are controlled by algorithms which are in turn sniffed and spoofed by other algorithms, slicing and dicing large orders to attempt to fly under the radar. The days of pump and dump through press releases are gone and that technique has become completely ineffectual. Automated trading is what moves the stock, not people.

So computers listened to the earnings call and decided the didn't like what they heard?

There are a lot of computer driven trades, that will be driven on watching for specific market conditions/trends.

But those conditions/trends are started by humans.

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans. 

The marker makers will "try" to pin the stock on normal days, but even them cant control moves drive by major news, but they will try to temper moves when volumes comes down.   The mm's goal is to hold the stock and farm option premiums and let go the stock when no news is expected and not a lot of options have been sold.  This is why Apple tend to make sudden moves for no apparent reasons.   

You should have seen the weekly calls open interest in the 4 weeks Apple got down from its high.  The calls outweight the puts 5 to 1 because people were betting for a rebound all the way down.  There was no way the mm's were going to let the stock go through that wall of calls. Now that people have lost billions, the calls and puts are going to balance out and only then the mm's are going to let go the stock.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

Originally Posted by mstone 
You may not know this but absolutely no actual people control the stock price.

 

So you're claiming that the entirety of the world economy has nothing at all to do with humans. 

In a way yes. If something goes wrong such as a self feeding downward spiral which might have been triggered by a program, the computers will halt trading for 5 seconds. If there is a human error such as what happened to Google last week the humans can intervene. When 99% of the trades are happening in 2-3 microseconds how could humans actually participate when the fastest human reaction time is in the neighborhood of 200 microseconds such as with a loud noise reaction. Certainly not that great for a small investor. If a large investor thinks Apple is a good buy he will place a large order with his broker. Once that order is placed the computers take over and they may try to game the system by actually placing a large sell order to force the price down by a single penny then make lots of small purchases to execute the buy order. Having completed that it then cancels the sell order. Because the matching system is looking for equal buy and sell orders it can't execute the transaction instantly if it is really large which opens a window of a few microseconds to manipulate the price, but it is all automated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andre Bee 

I expect Apple to post 2 million preorders on Monday

I wish but that is the same amount of the iPhone 5.   imo its more like 1 millions, but, I wish it could be more.   I am very happy to see they sold out on some models. Lets not forget people have still not seen it, dont expect a lot of customers that haven't own any Apple products before to buy online before they even see the ipad mini. 

The mini is a product that will sell well once people have seen how clear and vivid the screen is and how light it is.  Its like a little gem compare to other 7" tablets.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowdog65 

So computers listened to the earnings call and decided the didn't like what they heard?

 

There are a lot of computer driven trades, that will be driven on watching for specific market conditions/trends.

 

But those conditions/trends are started by humans.

The original question was who is manipulating the market and my answer is no one.

I don't think the earnings call had anything to do with the stock move. Mutual funds and hedge funds hold most of the stock and they don't care whether Apple releases a new product or not. They don't trade on fundamentals only technicals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mstone 

The original question was who is manipulating the market and my answer is no one.

 

I don't think the earnings call had anything to do with the stock move. Mutual funds and hedge funds hold most of the stock and they don't care whether Apple releases a new product or not. They don't trade on fundamentals only technicals.

From what I understands, the funds started taking profit after the all time high to secure profits before the year end.  Those guys are rated on performance.  They now have more cash on the side lines and will have to buy back shares if the price keeps going lower. Did you notice the stock move to 580 follow by a fast bounce after nasdaq removed the halt.  There is a lot of fund buyers below $600.  If we get a broad market correction there will be strong support for Apple, especially with the current low multiple of 14.  

The 200 daily moving average is at 580.  We don't get a lot of buying opportunities below the 200 DMA in a year. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by herbapou 

The marker makers will "try" to pin the stock on normal days, but even them cant control moves drive by major news, but they will try to temper moves when volumes comes down.   The mm's goal is to hold the stock and farm option premiums and let go the stock when no news is expected and not a lot of options have been sold.  This is why Apple tend to make sudden moves for no apparent reasons.   

 

You should have seen the weekly calls open interest in the 4 weeks Apple got down from its high.  The calls outweight the puts 5 to 1 because people were betting for a rebound all the way down.  There was no way the mm's were going to let the stock go through that wall of calls. Now that people have lost billions, the calls and puts are going to balance out and only then the mm's are going to let go the stock.

Market makers have been demoted to check out clerks. They have no power or authority any more. The open call trading floor is all but a historical footnote.

I really enjoy the naysayers who said it would never happen and would be a huge bust, now defending the lack of a sellout. 

LOL.

I think this is a great product aimed at a specific market. I think it is a little overpriced, but that's life. I ordered my mini (my first iPad, i bought the wife an iPad 2 a few months ago for work). I never had a need or a use for a full size device. I do have a need and desire for the smaller one.  Glad all the naysayers were wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by herbapou 

Quote:

Originally Posted by mstone 

Market makers have been demoted to check out clerks. They have no power or authority any more. The open call trading floor is all but a historical footnote.

By market makers i mean the ones taking the other side of option transaction. If they are 10 open interest of a specific call and someone try to buy 1000 of them, who do you think sells those calls. They are the same ones who pin the stock near opex.

Market makers were traditionally the people who matched up buy and sell orders and if the market became imbalanced they were required to use their own cash to buy the sell orders if there were no corresponding buy orders. The matching computers have completely taken their place. So sure there are market makers but they aren't real people and those computers use their data as trading leverage to avoid slippage  where as the traditional human market makers were not allowed to do that.

Sorry I must depart for baseball game. Buenas noches 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andysol 

Except the new iPod touch only charges $50 for memory upgrades- so that kind of shoots holes in any argument for $100 (or for $50 for that matter).

• http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_ipod/family/ipod_touch

Quote:

Originally Posted by mstone 

Market makers were traditionally the people who matched up buy and sell orders and if the market became imbalanced they were required to use their own cash to buy the sell orders if there were no corresponding buy orders. The matching computers have completely taken their place. So sure there are market makers but they aren't real people and those computers use their data as trading leverage to avoid slippage  where as the traditional human market makers were not allowed to do that.

I know its done by computers now, but I dont believe the Mm's only make money on bid's and offers.  I am afraid they will sell OTM puts and calls and then exchange shares between them in order to pin the stock and make those options expired worthless or try to move to stock toward max pain.

Everyone knows that if you don't sell out in 24 hours, no matter the quantities, your product is a total flop. Expect a punishing response by the geniuses on Wall Street. The parade and crucifixion will be led by Shaw Wu and Gene Munster. Bring your own pitchforks and torches!

Quote:

Originally Posted by lightknight 

Why do people seem to like the white one better? The black one is imho nicer, and well, it's easier on the eyes to look at a black enclosure than at a white one???

Just guessing, but I think more women will prefer the iPad mini in white. More feminine?

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich 
…I think more women will prefer the iPad mini in white. More feminine?

Racist. AND sexist. For shame.