You have some really interesting points here.
Originally Posted by MacBook Pro
Tailpipe, you offer an interesting mix of "what next" options but I believe there are options which are far more likely given various acquisitions and the trajectory of Apple's previous offerings although I believe a few of the options you offer are correct:
Mac Pro 2013 - 95%
AppleTV (4th generation) - 30%
Siri improvements (rather than "Develop AI for all of its devices") - 65%
Apple needs to move forward with AI on all hardware.
iCloud improvements (reliability, scalability at least) - 30% increasing to 70% in 2014
100% that Apple will continue to work on iCloud. The problem here is vision, I just don't think it aligns with most users.
New iPad with Retina Display (4th generation) Power Consumption - 25% increasing to 75% in 2014
We have the fourth gen iPad already. I'm also not sure what you are talking about power consumption wise, I expect Apple to continue to increase performance with each release only touching power consumption as an after thought. After all if we are truly in a post PC era, tablets will have to take on more and more workloads.
MIMO (multi-input multi-output) across most of the product line - 80%
802.11ac - 20% (see above) increasing to 80% in 2014
PowerVR Series 6 Rogue GPU - 75%
I'd say it is almost a 100% certainty for the next iteration of Apple processor.
20 nm process - 5% moving to 70% likely in 2014
This is very tough to call.
Optical Image Stabilization - 70%
Possibly. How about an Apple professional camera instead?
NFC or Bluetooth SRFT - 50%
Improved User Interface - 100%
I'm not sure why people get wound up about user interface, lets face it iOS changes (improves) with every release.
Greater SSD capacity - 10%
This is huge. Frankly Apple hasn't been aggressive enough in displacing the need for magnetic drives. More importantly iPads can easily become storage constrained. The current approach with iCloud highlights the fact that Apple doesn't get it, so while most users could use more Solid State Storage, I'm mixed about how fast that storage will come.
Greater RAM capacity - 10%
This is being dealt with on the desktop, iOS devices likely need another generation though iPad could use more RAM now.
Either AppleTV or Siri have the greatest unrealized potential of all existing Apple products at the moment:
- Free IPTV for the major networks (ABC, Bounce, CBS, CW, Fox, Ion, MeTV, My Network TV, NBC, PBS, RTV, TeleFutura, Telemundo, Univision, etc.)
That will not happen. The networks are on hard times due in part to the Internet, they won't be giving anything away.
[*] iAds commercials to remove or reduce cost of available programming from iTunes
No way in hell! The whole point with iTunes is that I have zero advertising to deal with. If Apple went this route I'd switch back to DVDs.
[*] iTunes subscription model (ala Amazon Prime, Hulu Plus or Netflix)
[*] Live netcast (aka video podcast) programming availability (TWiT TV offers live programming for several hours per day) (see Free IPTV above as well)
More online porn!
No seriously, the problem with video podcasts is with the recovery of production costs and maybe making a little profit if that is the motivation. Free TV doesn't allow for that. If Apple was to support such endeavors they really should look at the iTunes music model.
[*] iAds to make the preceding possible, if necessary
No no no no!
[*] Single portal interface (all media is searchable via a single portal)
[*] Family Center - an iCloud interface that shares family information including Calendars, Contacts, Mail, Notes, Photo Stream, Reminders amongst family members
Nice idea, though many businesses could use the same sort of facility.
[*] Gaming controller (ala Nintendo Wii or Microsoft Kinect)
Automatically respond to calendar events, emails, telephone calls, text messages
Automatically check traffic and weather conditions before (known) times to depart from home or work
Improved voice recognition (dependent upon external developments at the moment) (likely reason Apple is using their own IP and three microphones in the iPhone 5)
There are so many possibilities for Siri and artificial intelligence in general that what can be done is virtually unlimited.
Smartphones, including the Apple iPhone are only two years away from discontinued massive improvement in hardware. I estimate that smartphones will become a commodity device by 2016 at which time Google will essentially become the Microsoft of smartphone OSes.
I'm not sure where you heard that but frankly it is baloney.