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iPad mini is Windows 8 hardware makers' worst nightmare, analyst says

post #1 of 62
Thread Starter 
Apple's iPad mini is predicted to be the source of much strife for competing tablet makers during the upcoming holiday shopping season, and one analyst believes the 7.9-inch device will cut into sales of newly-released Windows 8 products.

As the mini begins its world tour launch, with sales already started in New Zealand, many have offered their thoughts on how the device will perform in the mid-size tablet market currently dominated by Android-based products. However, Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu said in a note to investors that the speculation "misses the point," explaining that the smaller iPad's real competition is against PCs and Windows.

"We continue to believe iPad mini is the competition's worst nightmare and will likely slow down adoption of competitor tablets," Wu wrote. "In particular, we believe this could end up being a very tough holiday season for Windows 8."

iPad mini Rendering


Since Apple debuted the mini at a special event at the end of October, pundits have been comparing the tablet against products like Google's Nexus 7 and Amazon's Kindle Fire HD, devices they believe to be its nearest competition. Contrasting these views, Wu sees Apple's smallest iPad as having a greater impact on PC vendors, as the unit's $329 price of entry undercuts many of the new and upcoming Windows 8 products.

As an example, the analyst pointed to Microsoft's own $599 Surface RT, which he said was "arguably overpriced."

Regarding the iPad mini's price point, which some predicted would be in the $249 to $299 range, Wu believes the concerns are "overdone," and likens the product's positioning to the iPod mini and iPod nano.

"This controversy reminds us of what happened with iPod mini and iPod nano," Wu wrote. "Both predecessors were criticized as being overpriced but went on to do much better than expected. The key reason being high quality at a reasonable price and we see something similar here."

Apple's iPad mini is set to go on sale in 20 countries on Nov. 2 at 8 a.m. local time, though brick-and-mortar Apple Stores and resellers may be the only place to purchase one, as preorders for all launch models sold out within hours of going live.
post #2 of 62

No, their "worst nightmare" would have been if Apple had been able to price the low-end model at $199. Then competitors would be run right out of business. $329 leaves room for them in the market.

post #3 of 62
Nice to compare the price of the 7.9" 16GB mini to the 32GB Surface that includes the keyboard cover.
post #4 of 62
When the reviews of the Surface are out along with reviews of the iPad Mini, you can bet that the big names will make the comparisons. I'm eager to read what they say. The distribution of the reviews will be the key to the success or failure of the Surface. Sure the few Microsoft stores and retailers will push the expensive tablets, but once people hear about how well or poorly it works for the money, Microsoft will have the answer to the question "Will it sell?".
post #5 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

No, their "worst nightmare" would have been if Apple had been able to price the low-end model at $199. Then competitors would be run right out of business. $329 leaves room for them in the market.
Which is just fine. If Apples goal was to eliminate competitors they could, but thankfully it isn't.
post #6 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

No, their "worst nightmare" would have been if Apple had been able to price the low-end model at $199. Then competitors would be run right out of business. $329 leaves room for them in the market.

 

Exactly what Apple wants.  Apple wants a bunch of manufacturers squabbling over the crumbs at the low end of the market in a race to the bottom.  While they might be able to move a lot of worthless units, it won't be enough to fund the development of powerful next-generation systems and they won't attract the kind of customers who spend $100 or more a month on software, services and media - which is where Apple makes big money and expands its ecosystem.

 

Remember the home computer wars of the early '80s, when Commodore, TI, Atari, Coleco and Tandy got sucked into a raging price war at the low end of the market.  They pretty much all outsold Apple, ended up not making any money and their el-cheapo userbase pirated software instead of buying it, so only the biggest seller (Commodore) had anything in the way of a platform.  Even then, Commodore was pretty much wiped out by the arrival of the clones, their profit margins were so low and their platform incapable of keeping up with IBM's.  Only Apple survived.

 

This is gonna be the exact same deal.  You'll see Samsung, Amazon, a bunch of Chinese Android craplets and whatever Surface junk Microsoft pumps out all competing with one another on price and spec sheets.  Margins will collapse, they'll be giving their cruddy tablets away, their cheapskate users won't buy any software or services and finally Apple will release some disruptive device - again - that makes them all obsolete, anyhow.

 

History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.

post #7 of 62
If you a consumer can compare a mini to a full-size iPad -- which they will -- then why can't a consumer compare a mini to a Surface? Wake up folks. People don't want to spend $500 and up on tablets. They were spending about that on an iPad, and they don't even have to do that now.
post #8 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by clexman View Post

Nice to compare the price of the 7.9" 16GB mini to the 32GB Surface that includes the keyboard cover.

Right. They are not comparable at all. The target market for the Surface is tech nerds. On the other hand, the Apple faithful, multiple Apple device households, the well heeled, affluent, educated, discerning, quality conscious consumer is what makes up Apple's mindshare. No comparison whatsoever.

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post #9 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnswilson1 View Post

If you a consumer can compare a mini to a full-size iPad -- which they will -- then why can't a consumer compare a mini to a Surface? Wake up folks. People don't want to spend $500 and up on tablets. They were spending about that on an iPad, and they don't even have to do that now.

But didn't you listen to Ballmer, the Surface is a PC!!!!!!! lol

post #10 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by clexman View Post

Nice to compare the price of the 7.9" 16GB mini to the 32GB Surface that includes the keyboard cover.

 

Let's not forget how much of that 32GB is eaten up by the OS.  Only 20GB available.  it's still more space, but not double.

post #11 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnswilson1 View Post

If you a consumer can compare a mini to a full-size iPad -- which they will -- then why can't a consumer compare a mini to a Surface? Wake up folks. People don't want to spend $500 and up on tablets. They were spending about that on an iPad, and they don't even have to do that now.

 

I think that's entirely dependent on what you want to do on it.  Some functions naturally lend themselves to a larger screen size, much like on a laptop.

 

The mini MAY (like the iPod Mini) end up becoming the more popular product by volume, but I think there will still be a segment that wants a 10" iPad, and are willing to pay for it.  As long as they buy an iPad, I'm not sure how much Apple cares which one it is.

post #12 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

No, their "worst nightmare" would have been if Apple had been able to price the low-end model at $199. Then competitors would be run right out of business. $329 leaves room for them in the market.

Apple doesn't need to wade around in the mud with the bottom feeders. Apple is at the top of the food chain and everybody else is below, far below, it's like a bottomless pit, and there's no limit as to how low they will sink.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon or Google eventually offers some tablet for $10.00. I'm sure that they'll eventually make it all up in volume or something.

 

I question the motives of people who wish for Apple to offer low priced junk.

post #13 of 62

Holy Cow sunspot42 ... you actually know what you are talking about.  Of course you are spot on.  And you must be as old as I am and involved in the business to remember all of the names.  But I digress ...

 

Yes I agree it is a race to the bottom for most of the cheap plastic vendors.  I actually have some respect for what Microsoft is attempting.  It is different and it is priced reasonably relative to their costs of manufacture.  It won't work for them but ...

 

Andorid makes zero profit for Google.  Amazon sells its Fire for less than the cost to build it.  Who in their right mind would invest in these loser companies? Not me.

post #14 of 62
I'm an MSDN member as well as an iOS and OS X developer... I simply cannot understand what the hell Balmer is thinking with Win8. You're spot on sunspot42... No pun intended. Microsoft server/enterprise products are still the bees knees, but they are seriously misunderstanding the tablet market... and it might be at the expense of their desktop dominance.

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post #15 of 62
People complain about the Mini and who would use it but it really doesn't matter, what Apple did a little over a week ago is very agressive Business. Simply put they have outclassed the competition at every size level. The price isn't outrageous on the Mini at all, those complaining really don't have a clue. Now all Apple needs is supply that meets demand.
post #16 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunspot42 View Post

 

Exactly what Apple wants.  Apple wants a bunch of manufacturers squabbling over the crumbs at the low end of the market in a race to the bottom.  While they might be able to move a lot of worthless units, it won't be enough to fund the development of powerful next-generation systems and they won't attract the kind of customers who spend $100 or more a month on software, services and media - which is where Apple makes big money and expands its ecosystem.

 

Remember the home computer wars of the early '80s, when Commodore, TI, Atari, Coleco and Tandy got sucked into a raging price war at the low end of the market.  They pretty much all outsold Apple, ended up not making any money and their el-cheapo userbase pirated software instead of buying it, so only the biggest seller (Commodore) had anything in the way of a platform.  Even then, Commodore was pretty much wiped out by the arrival of the clones, their profit margins were so low and their platform incapable of keeping up with IBM's.  Only Apple survived.

 

This is gonna be the exact same deal.  You'll see Samsung, Amazon, a bunch of Chinese Android craplets and whatever Surface junk Microsoft pumps out all competing with one another on price and spec sheets.  Margins will collapse, they'll be giving their cruddy tablets away, their cheapskate users won't buy any software or services and finally Apple will release some disruptive device - again - that makes them all obsolete, anyhow.

 

History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.

 

There was another factor at work in the early home computer wars, and that was the education market. Apple was successful there and it gave Apple a profitable and wide base. This time around Apple is also successful in the educational market in even a bigger way. 

 

There will always be bottom feeders in any market. We usually hear about the $199 tablets but the price point really goes all the way down to $69.95. So, there really is no bottom to how low one can pay for a tablet when specs and utility and software availability are not factors. 

 

At $329 apple leaves very little oxygen for those priced lower while, at the same time, avoids being accused of unfair pricing practices.

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post #17 of 62

Apple in ANY space, is the competition's "worst nightmare."

post #18 of 62

Being a Geek does not exclude you from being a well heeled, affluent, educated, discerning, quality conscious consumer. Just that we have the ability to see when a tech corporation has a good solid product like say a Unix Platform with a nice usable GUI or is trying to shove shit down our throats like permanently locking our media and documents into their eco system.

post #19 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tychicum View Post

Holy Cow sunspot42 ... you actually know what you are talking about.  Of course you are spot on.  And you must be as old as I am and involved in the business to remember all of the names.  But I digress ...

 

Yes I agree it is a race to the bottom for most of the cheap plastic vendors.  I actually have some respect for what Microsoft is attempting.  It is different and it is priced reasonably relative to their costs of manufacture.  It won't work for them but ...

 

Andorid makes zero profit for Google.  Amazon sells its Fire for less than the cost to build it.  Who in their right mind would invest in these loser companies? Not me.

 

Google was seeing a small profit from the Google search on Android phones. They made a lot more profit from Google search on iOS phones and tablets. The sudden loss of 80 million iPads and even more iPhones from Google maps will be quite a loss. Then, if Apple develops their own search tied to Siri, Google will feel a huge loss of search revenue. After all, users who search and buy from the iOS platform out-weigh all the other search-spending by Windows and Android combined. How could Google attract advertisers money without Apple iOS/OSX search-spenders being in their equation? Android will be the most expensive back-stabbing business decision they could have ever made. 

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post #20 of 62

Yeah need to specify Windows RT there... the idea that an iPad (any of them) will eat into Windows 8/pro tablets is like saying Crayons will eat into Artist level pastels - One is for talented people, the other is for kids to play games on. 

post #21 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

Yeah need to specify Windows RT there... the idea that an iPad (any of them) will eat into Windows 8/pro tablets is like saying Crayons will eat into Artist level pastels - One is for talented people, the other is for kids to play games on. 

Creative people and talented people love Macs.

 

Who needs a Windows tablet? Some boring, no-talent, 9-5 office worker, so that they can use Office?lol.gif

 

Windows is a disgusting looking OS. I question the aesthetics of anybody who uses and likes Windows.

post #22 of 62

Whoa! What an AMAZING prediction. This analyst must be like…clairvoyant. I hope he gets paid a lot of money!

post #23 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcel655 View Post

Being a Geek does not exclude you from being a well heeled, affluent, educated, discerning, quality conscious consumer. Just that we have the ability to see when a tech corporation has a good solid product like say a Unix Platform with a nice usable GUI or is trying to shove shit down our throats like permanently locking our media and documents into their eco system.

So... Looking at my iTunes library...
70 GB of music and +1 TB of video and NONE of it is locked into Apple's ecosystem. It all plays on my iPhone and iPad and AppleTV, but it also plays on any other device I care to put it on.

My iOS devices can play any .avi or .mkv file I throw at it... So how am I "locked" to any "ecosystem"?
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post #24 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackieTreehorn View Post

I'm an MSDN member as well as an iOS and OS X developer... I simply cannot understand what the hell Balmer is thinking with Win8. You're spot on sunspot42... No pun intended. Microsoft server/enterprise products are still the bees knees, but they are seriously misunderstanding the tablet market... and it might be at the expense of their desktop dominance.

So I take it you didn't buy the Surface, lol?

post #25 of 62

$329 for iPad Mini is surely a death blow to Apple. That sentiment from the same folks who called the $499 iPad "a big iPod" and predicted certain failure. What do they know. Apple has sold 100 million of them and counting. Nobody else has ever sold a hundred million of anything (maybe I'm wrong -- sue me.) 

 

So the conventional wisdom is that Apple should have priced it at $199 and killed the competition. But don't you think that sorry competition in the form of plasticky low end tablets is a good thing for Apple? I do. It doesn't take a genius to see that next year we'll see a $329 iPad Mini (2nd Gen) with Retina Display and A6 processor. The Mini (1st Gen) drops to $249. The press will complain endlessly about that.

 

This year we get a BMW 3 series for just $130 more than a Chevy Malibu. I think it's a great deal — I just bought two of them. Next year, we get it for the price of a used Ford. The tech press will continue to be clueless while Apple owns the category.

post #26 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcel655 View Post

Being a Geek does not exclude you from being a well heeled, affluent, educated, discerning, quality conscious consumer. Just that we have the ability to see when a tech corporation has a good solid product like say a Unix Platform with a nice usable GUI or is trying to shove shit down our throats like permanently locking our media and documents into their eco system.

 

Is that geek-speak for "I don't really have a good argument"...?

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post #27 of 62
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post
Is that geek-speak for "I don't really have a good argument"...?

 

I thought he was talking about Microsoft there. 

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post #28 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

No, their "worst nightmare" would have been if Apple had been able to price the low-end model at $199. Then competitors would be run right out of business. $329 leaves room for them in the market.

 

The biggest thing a $329 price point leaves room for is next year's announcement:

 

"iPad Mini. Now from $299"

post #29 of 62
I thought he had a pretty good argument.
post #30 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcel655 View Post

Being a Geek does not exclude you from being a well heeled, affluent, educated, discerning, quality conscious consumer. Just that we have the ability to see when a tech corporation has a good solid product like say a Unix Platform with a nice usable GUI or is trying to shove shit down our throats like permanently locking our media and documents into their eco system.

People who choose to buy a BMW do not change their own oil nor do they take their car to Jiffylube. Most Apple iPad buyers don't care about the lock-in. Its purpose is to protect them and everyone else from low life digital pirates. You can enable several devices in your home to share the content from iTunes or you can import your own music if your want. I don't see where the problem is. Shell scripting Nix geeks are not the target market here.


Edited by mstone - 11/1/12 at 8:38pm

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post #31 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post


Which is just fine. If Apples goal was to eliminate competitors they could, but thankfully it isn't.

 

Right. They leave that task to the legal department these days.

post #32 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

Which is just fine. If Apples goal was to eliminate competitors they could, but thankfully it isn't.

I don't think so. At least not until Apple has complete control over components production.

As it is, likes of Samsung, LG... always can sell for razor-thin margins and make their products cheaper than Apple (who has to purchase components elsewhere), if it is a question of life and death..

And Apple can push their suppliers only that much. At some points, they will choose to follow their own path than to be just Apple's supplier. Like Samsung did. LG, for example, is much below Samsung in terms of worldwide marketshare and sales, so their production capacities have to be employed somewhere... but should they manage to build their brand name a bit, I'd be surprised if they don't (at least try) to pull Samsung on Apple in a year or two. There is potentially much more money in selling complete products compared to selling components, even if your buyer is Apple.
post #33 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Windows is a disgusting looking OS. I question the aesthetics of anybody who uses and likes Windows.

 

 

It's not just disgusting looking OS but software which fails in the usability department too.
 
Important options buried inside nested menus...
 
Failure to support drag and drop where is makes intuititive sense...
 
Forcing everyone onto tabbed toolbars (AKA the ribbon)...
 
In the time that Apple has implemented enormous changes which make maintaining a computer easier (app store, expose, Time machine, retina display, iCloud, wireless syncing) Microsoft has done what? Pushed out three major OS's cobbled around the same crappy start button.
post #34 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunspot42 View Post

Exactly what Apple wants.  Apple wants a bunch of manufacturers squabbling over the crumbs at the low end of the market in a race to the bottom.  While they might be able to move a lot of worthless units, it won't be enough to fund the development of powerful next-generation systems and they won't attract the kind of customers who spend $100 or more a month on software, services and media - which is where Apple makes big money and expands its ecosystem.

Remember the home computer wars of the early '80s, when Commodore, TI, Atari, Coleco and Tandy got sucked into a raging price war at the low end of the market.  They pretty much all outsold Apple, ended up not making any money and their el-cheapo userbase pirated software instead of buying it, so only the biggest seller (Commodore) had anything in the way of a platform.  Even then, Commodore was pretty much wiped out by the arrival of the clones, their profit margins were so low and their platform incapable of keeping up with IBM's.  Only Apple survived.

This is gonna be the exact same deal.  You'll see Samsung, Amazon, a bunch of Chinese Android craplets and whatever Surface junk Microsoft pumps out all competing with one another on price and spec sheets.  Margins will collapse, they'll be giving their cruddy tablets away, their cheapskate users won't buy any software or services and finally Apple will release some disruptive device - again - that makes them all obsolete, anyhow.

History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.

Commodores, Ataris... died not because they were working on razor-thin margins, but because they could not compete with emerging PC standard. They remained expensive and were overtaken by PCs on performance level for less money.

I was Amiga user, and recall well - Amiga 600, sold in mid '90, was prety much repacked Amiga 500 I had from '87. That was over 5 years of selling same product, with really minor updates. Amiga 1200 was the only logical upgrade for home users, and even that one was shamelessly expensive in regard of HDD options, for example, and not that much faster than original Amiga (relative to timespan between releases). Amiga 3000, 4000... were out of this world price wise, and were overtaken on performance level by cheaper PC boxes.

Apple survived, but barely. If it wasn't for Return of the Jobs, question is would they survive either.
post #35 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by "Apple 
[" url="/t/153974/ipad-mini-is-windows-8-hardware-makers-worst-nightmare-analyst-says#post_2225232"]Creative people and talented people love Macs.

Who needs a Windows tablet? Some boring, no-talent, 9-5 office worker, so that they can use Office?lol.gif

Windows is a disgusting looking OS. I question the aesthetics of anybody who uses and likes Windows.

The same stupid clueless question was being made by many when iPad came out. How about we wait and actually see who needs Windows tablet? You may even come out being right. But for now, you are only coming out being arrogant prick. If someone like that questions anything, I think it is actually quite good perspective for that anything.
post #36 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by clexman View Post

Nice to compare the price of the 7.9" 16GB mini to the 32GB Surface that includes the keyboard cover.

 

The amount of remaining space is much less than the difference of 16GB, since the Win8 OS takes up so much damn space. Also, most reviews I read categorized the keyboard cover anywhere from 'passable' to 'horrible', and in no way approximates a real keyboard. Taking into account the fact that Surface RT is useless as a desktop system (ie. cant install Windows applications) then its an apt comparison. What exactly are you getting for all that money? A compromised machine that doesnt do any task particularly well. 

post #37 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post


The same stupid clueless question was being made by many when iPad came out. How about we wait and actually see who needs Windows tablet? You may even come out being right. But for now, you are only coming out being arrogant prick. If someone like that questions anything, I think it is actually quite good perspective for that anything.

Except for the fact that I never did question the iPad when it came out. To the contrary, I predicted that it would be a massive success. 

 

As for any Windows Tablet, I really don't need to wait until it comes out. I've managed just fine without ever using Windows for my entire life, I doubt that I'm going to start now. Microsoft's hybrid tablet approach is fundamentally wrong. It's worse than a real laptop and worse than a real tablet. It does neither better. I don't need to try one to see the error in their ways.

 

As for being an arrogant prick, I've been called worse before.lol.gif

 

And did you somehow miss that my reply was in response to somebody who is nothing but a third rate troll? Trolls do not get any respect from me.


Edited by Apple ][ - 11/1/12 at 9:36pm
post #38 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

Yeah need to specify Windows RT there... the idea that an iPad (any of them) will eat into Windows 8/pro tablets is like saying Crayons will eat into Artist level pastels - One is for talented people, the other is for kids to play games on. 

 

Windows is for 'talented people'? What the ****? When did this happen? Its the default OS for most of the worlds population, and now its suddenly for the super talented? Or are you talking about the interface composed of massive, pastel colored tiles? Is that the one for pros and talented people?

 

Also, I'd send you all the creative stuff I've produced on my iPad (that also took talent), but it would be a waste of time because you're obviously full of shit, and a chronic, mindless troll. Like it or not, the iPad is beyind used and deployed in a ton of industries, from creative, to manufacturing, to education, to medical, to engineering, etc. Pretty impressive for a toy that 'kids play on'.

 

Amazing how some people (like you) get their jollies by registering on a messageboard for a fansite of a company solely to bash and troll their products, as if they're on some sort of righteous crusade. Beyond pathetic.  

post #39 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post
Android will be the most expensive back-stabbing business decision they could have ever made. 

Brilliant.

post #40 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunks View Post

 

The biggest thing a $329 price point leaves room for is next year's announcement:

 

I don't know why people still don't get it, Apple makes a premium product in every way from hard to software, it's already cheap at $329, Apple doesn't need or want the type of consumer where $30, is going to make a difference, let alone $130 when the alternative is a piece of plastic shite with ads

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