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Apple expected to ship 850K iPad minis in first week of sales

post #1 of 45
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As the first iPad mini preorders are being delivered and the tablet hits shelves at brick-and-mortar retailers, shipment forecasts are already being released, with one analyst estimating a total of 850,000 units will go out to consumers over the device's first week of sales.

In a report obtained by AppleInsider, well-informed KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple will likely ship around 850,000 iPad minis in its first week on the market, based on supply chain checks and logistical considerations such as transportation.

Kuo believes that had mass production started sooner than mid-October, the tablet would have seen higher first-week shipments. As it stands, Apple is in short supply of the 7.9-inch device as about 950,000 units were manufactured prior to launch, a statistic reflected in shipment quotes from the Online Apple Store.

The analyst goes on to say his forecast would put Apple at the top of the mid-size tablet market, with shipments outperforming Amazon's Kindle Fire HD and Google Nexus 7, two of the mini's biggest competitors. In the first two days after launch, iPad mini shipments are expected to reach the Fire's half-month shipment numbers and surpass the Nexus 7's average monthly shipments for the fourth quarter.

iPad mini Shipments


Amazon forecast shipments of its 7-inch tablet to hit 6 million in the fourth quarter, but Kuo doesn't believe will happen. He said that suppliers are beginning to see a slowdown in shipment momentum for the Fire, as well as the Nexus 7, and added that the larger 8.9-inch Kindle Fire HD is now suffering from production problems.

Kuo sees lucrative holiday quarter shipments at 8.2 million for the iPad mini, followed by 4.5 million for the Kindle Fire HD, and 1.9 million for the Nexus 7. Going further, the Fire and Nexus will both see respective month-to-month declines of 47 percent and 52 percent, while iPad mini shipments will grow 11 percent over the same period due to increases in supply.

After selling out of its initial preorder allotment within hours, Apple conducted its largest product launch ever on Friday as the iPad mini rolled out in 34 countries.

Though Amazon's forecast is more than the chart (6M for 4Q12), very likely Amazon can't do it. Many suppliers are feeling the shipment momentum of Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7 is becoming slow. The other not good news for Amazon is the 8.9" Kindle Fire HD has production problem now.
post #2 of 45

Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.

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post #3 of 45
I'm going to laugh if Apple posts that they sold 2-3 million just in presages. That will show just how 'well informed' this ANALyst is.

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post #4 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.


Worse. Gene Munster said the number would be 1.5 million. Some one has got some 'splainin to do'...

post #5 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJay2012 View Post


Worse. Gene Munster said the number would be 1.5 million. Some one has got some 'splainin to do'...


Gene always over-estimates.

 

Me thinks 1MM is probably a good start (no pre-orders)

post #6 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Crap, they're just gonna ship them! Not sell them! Apple is doomed.

 

Crap, is right. Apple's gonna crap all over its competition's marketing plans. Now. if Apple could announce a fantastic outstanding new game, they would own the Christmas buying season.

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post #7 of 45

I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems.  At least I am ready for yet another round of stock free fall. Apple is missing a lot of sales, I went to the Apple store after work and it was pack with people wanting the ipad mini.  Some people bought the iPad 2 instead but most were disappointed it was unavaible.

 

The iPad 4 must be the worst possible product refresh launch ever. Nobody was even looking at it with the store completely pack. btw the ipad 4 benchmark are in and its a lot faster than the nexus 10. The Android spec freaks can go back under there rock until the next ipad killer.

 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6426/ipad-4-gpu-performance-analyzed-powervr-sgx-554mp4-under-the-hood


Edited by herbapou - 11/2/12 at 7:49pm
post #8 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems.  At least I am ready for yet another round of stock free fall. Apple is missing a lot of sales, I went to the Apple store after work and it was pack with people wanting the ipad mini.  Some people bought the iPad 2 instead but most were disappointed it was unavaible.

 

The iPad 4 must be the worst possible product refresh launch ever. Nobody was even looking at it with the store completely pack. btw the ipad 4 benchmark are in and its a lot faster than the nexus 10. The Android spec freaks can go back under there rock until the next ipad killer.

 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6426/ipad-4-gpu-performance-analyzed-powervr-sgx-554mp4-under-the-hood

 

Look, you're whining over the best problem any company can have. All things considered, Apple does a stellar job of second guessing demand. Just because some Tom, Dich or Harry get's a wild hair and walks into an Apple store and can't walk out with instant gratification doesn't mean Apple is incompetent.

 

In addition of offering 6 different models of the mini in the USA, they are also shipping 6 other models to 34 other countries. That's 210 different SKUs and everyone is getting served reasonably well. On another month they are going to double or triple the number of mini SKUs when they ship the LTE versions.

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post #9 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

I wish Apple could solve its supply chain problems.

That's right. Stop letting those lazy cChinese workers have breaks. Make them work non stop and much faster because we have folks that must have their stuff on day one.

Talk about a first world problem. This is not a heart transplant after all. It's not life or death. Folks need to get over it and realize that it's not the end of the world that you have to wait. Especially when, at least in the US, they are going to start the whole 'pay online pick up in store' gig as the iPhones tomorrow night (Store manger told me when they were out of the model i was looking for) So you don't have to show up every day to not get your iPad.

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post #10 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I'm going to laugh if Apple posts that they sold 2-3 million just in presages. That will show just how 'well informed' this ANALyst is.

34 countries opening weekend plus the timeframe in which we've seen what are now revealed as legitimate HW leaks tells me they have made a lot of these things so a couple million opening weekend does seem possible to me, assuming they have enough buyers.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #11 of 45
Code:
I would say analysts pull their numbers out of their backsides, hence the name. 1biggrin.gif

Besides how can you analyse something that has not happened / does not exist yet, IE purchases.
post #12 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

 

Look, you're whining over the best problem any company can have. All things considered, Apple does a stellar job of second guessing demand. Just because some Tom, Dich or Harry get's a wild hair and walks into an Apple store and can't walk out with instant gratification doesn't mean Apple is incompetent.

 

In addition of offering 6 different models of the mini in the USA, they are also shipping 6 other models to 34 other countries. That's 210 different SKUs and everyone is getting served reasonably well. On another month they are going to double or triple the number of mini SKUs when they ship the LTE versions.

You might think it's the best problem for a company to have but Wall Street thinks far differently.  Why do you think Apple's share price is in the toilet?  Because of Tim Cook's and Apple's lousy supply chain.  Apple doesn't make the rules of production, Wall Street does.  If Wall Street says that Apple HAS to sell a certain number of units over a weekend, then that's what Apple has to do.  If Apple doesn't, then the share price is going to drop $20.  You think shareholders appreciate that?  Apple shouldn't release any product with less than 10 million units in inventory.  Tim Cook should anticipate Wall Street's reaction and act accordingly.  The last three products Apple released disappointed Wall Street due to inventory shortages.  How long is this going to happen before Tim Cook gets a clue?  Take some of those billions in reserve cash and get some more factories and workers online or start building fully automated factories that run 24/7.  Apple sitting on $124 billion in reserve cash is absolutely useless to shareholders.  In one month, Apple has lost $60 billion in market cap.  A couple of billion dollars of reserve cash put into device production would have saved tens of billions of dollars in market cap.  Wall Street wants instant gratification and it's Tim Cook's responsibility to give them what they want.

 

/s

post #13 of 45
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Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

You might think it's the best problem for a company to have but Wall Street thinks far differently.  Why do you think Apple's share price is in the toilet?  Because of Tim Cook's and Apple's lousy supply chain.  Apple doesn't make the rules of production, Wall Street does.  If Wall Street says that Apple HAS to sell a certain number of units over a weekend, then that's what Apple has to do.  If Apple doesn't, then the share price is going to drop $20.  You think shareholders appreciate that?  Apple shouldn't release any product with less than 10 million units in inventory.  Tim Cook should anticipate Wall Street's reaction and act accordingly.  The last three products Apple released disappointed Wall Street due to inventory shortages.  How long is this going to happen before Tim Cook gets a clue?  Take some of those billions in reserve cash and get some more factories and workers online or start building fully automated factories that run 24/7.  Apple sitting on $124 billion in reserve cash is absolutely useless to shareholders.  In one month, Apple has lost $60 billion in market cap.  A couple of billion dollars of reserve cash put into device production would have saved tens of billions of dollars in market cap.  Wall Street wants instant gratification and it's Tim Cook's responsibility to give them what they want.

/s

Lol. The thing is you have to be more clever than those guys and hit the buy button when the stock gets over sold like that. But I think the main concern on wall street is Apple guide a 15% year of year decline for the holiday quarters. So is Apple really going to make less this year with the iphone 5, the ipad mini and the ipad 4 than it did last year with just the new iphone 4s and the 10 month old ipad2?

This a major trend reversal, between 2010 and 2011 apple did 110% year over year growth. I think the stock is probally going to tank to the lower 500 and then rally to around 600 for the earnings. This is if we dont get any news that hints Apple has really lowball this one. The problem is Apple didnt lowball the previous 2 quarters, they barely beat guidance.
post #14 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


34 countries opening weekend plus the timeframe in which we've seen what are now revealed as legitimate HW leaks tells me they have made a lot of these things so a couple million opening weekend does seem possible to me, assuming they have enough buyers.

They have enough buyers (even though it's a bit more expensive than I'd like). The question only is how many they had made?

post #15 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

You might think it's the best problem for a company to have but Wall Street thinks far differently.  Why do you think Apple's share price is in the toilet?  Because of Tim Cook's and Apple's lousy supply chain. 

Nope. It's in the toilet cause folks were not impressed by the IPad Mini specs for the price, because of the firing of 'iOS Genius' Forstall and Retail disaster Browett, for all the issues with the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 beyond the scuffs and Maps app (although the complaints about the maps data didn't help) and so on.

These issues are being trumped up as 'proof' that Tim Cook can't handle the job and the folks crying about how Apple will tank without Steve were right. So folks are getting out now, which is really what is tanking things.

'Production issues' is a classic and long standing move by analysts to cover up that they are likely wrong about sales projections etc. they can claim they would have been right 'but there were issues'.

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post #16 of 45
A little OT, but Engadget has an editorial up essentially having a go and Google and Amazon for pushing the sell hardware at cost or a loss model. Basically saying that competition gets squeezed and innovation stalls. Coming from Engadget all I have to say is WOW.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/11/03/editorial-amazon-and-google-are-undermining-mobile-pricing/

Of course the author gets totally ripped in the comments section as being an apple fanboy. lol.gif
Edited by Rogifan - 11/3/12 at 1:36pm
post #17 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

A little OT, but Engadget has an editorial up essentially having a go and Google and Amazon for pushing the sell hardware at cost or a loss model. Basically saying that competition gets squeezed and innovation stalls. Coming from Engadget all I have to say is WOW.
http://www.engadget.com/2012/11/03/editorial-amazon-and-google-are-undermining-mobile-pricing/
Of course the author gets totally ripped in the comments section as being an apple fanboy. lol.gif

As noted by someone, somewhere it's interesting that Apple doesn't paly that game with any of their products. they never did it with Macs and now we have most PC vendors struggling to stay in the black with Apple making about 1/3rd of all PC profits in the world. I suspect that, at worst, the tablet will fall into the same pattern and, at best, we get the iPod scenario all over again where there is no viable PMP but the iPod. Who outside tech forums even refers to the market as the PMP market? You're more likely to hear it called the 3rd-party iPod market.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #18 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Nope. It's in the toilet cause folks were not impressed by the IPad Mini specs for the price, because of the firing of 'iOS Genius' Forstall and Retail disaster Browett, for all the issues with the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 beyond the scuffs and Maps app (although the complaints about the maps data didn't help) and so on.
These issues are being trumped up as 'proof' that Tim Cook can't handle the job and the folks crying about how Apple will tank without Steve were right. So folks are getting out now, which is really what is tanking things.
'Production issues' is a classic and long standing move by analysts to cover up that they are likely wrong about sales projections etc. they can claim they would have been right 'but there were issues'.

Personnaly I think the demand is still there. Look at the revenu guidance, its in line with estimates. The problem is EPS. Margins are going to decrease. If sales are still great, this would be a textbook case to buy back shares to temper the margins impacts. Good news is Apple is suppose to start buying back shares since October. On the call they said margins are going to improve in Q2, so Q1 makes if even more attractive for the shares buyback.
post #19 of 45
What's amazing is this tablet that is getting ripped for being overpriced is actually getting good reviews, even discounting the non-retina display. The Verge gave it a 9/10, two British papers gave it 5 stars, even sites like Engadget and c|net (not known for being Apple fanboys) gave it good reviews. Over at the MacRumors forums it's getting mostly high praise, especially for build quality and how thin and light it is. Seems to me some people are butt-hurt because they wanted to proclaim the mini DOA based on specs but the reviews are telling a different story.
post #20 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

As noted by someone, somewhere it's interesting that Apple doesn't paly that game with any of their products. they never did it with Macs and now we have most PC vendors struggling to stay in the black with Apple making about 1/3rd of all PC profits in the world. I suspect that, at worst, the tablet will fall into the same pattern and, at best, we get the iPod scenario all over again where there is no viable PMP but the iPod. Who outside tech forums even refers to the market as the PMP market? You're more likely to hear it called the 3rd-party iPod market.
The midguided thinking here is that hardware is a comodity and the model is to sell cheap hardware and make it up in content sales. The problem is who's making money off content? Could Amazon really sustain its business off the sales of books, music, movies, TV shows and free, 99¢ or $1.99 apps? Apple's content business is little more than a break even business. I can't imagine Amazon Is making a ton of money off it either, or Google with Google Play. To make this work apps and other content would have to be a lot more expensive than they are now. Look at video games. Not cheap. Right now people love this model because the hardware is cheap and so is the content (for the most part). But that's not sustainable. There's a reasons Microsoft didn't price the Surface dirt cheap.

Oh and one other thing. There's only one reason some of these non-Apple tables are so cheap. Because that was the only way they could compete. But rather than admit it, they come up with some BS story that they think some gullible people will believe. And even if you think the iPad is overpriced what is the right price for a tablet? Who decided they should be $199 or $249 and no more? Who decides what a fair profit margin is? Obviously the market decides. In the case of Apple it's considered more of a luxury or premium brand. People will pay $200 for a Coach purse when they can get one for $40 at Kohl's. Are they being ripped off? Of course not because they're voluntarily making the choice to buy a product that's more expensive (for a variety of reasons). In the case of Apple people choose to pay a premium for their product. Amazon and Google conglobate dirt cheap route, but I don't see that hurting Apple as much as other hardware OEM's that don't have the means to subsidize their hardware.
post #21 of 45
I think I'll pop into my local Apple Store to see if they have any models that are sold out. With that info I might be able to create an estimate for the weekend.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #22 of 45

I went to the Apple Store yesterday and checked out the new mini. Overall I like it. Still waiting for my cellular version to be delivered. One thing I noticed right away is that while using maps, which is one of my main intended uses of the device, it is noticeably laggy when zooming especially in 3D mode. Compared to the speed of the new iPad 4 the mini is a real dog. Even switching orientation has somewhat of a delay. The screen looks pretty good but you kind of get the impression that it is seriously underpowered and will probably become obsolete rather quickly as new apps demand more performance.


Edited by mstone - 11/4/12 at 7:13am

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post #23 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I think I'll pop into my local Apple Store to see if they have any models that are sold out. With that info I might be able to create an estimate for the weekend.

(almost) no one will get what you're saying Soli.1smile.gif

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post #24 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I went to the Apple Store yesterday and checked out the new mini. Overall I like it. Still waiting for my cellular version to be delivered. One thing I noticed right away is that while using maps, which is one of my main intended uses of the device, it is noticeably laggy when zooming especially in 3D mode. Compared to the speed of the new iPad 4 the mini is a real dog. Even switching orientation has somewhat of a delay. The screen looks pretty good but you kind of get the impression that it is seriously underpowered and will probably become obsolete rather quickly as new apps demand more performance.

 

In benchmarks I read the Mini was, if anything, a touch faster than iPad 1,2 and 3.  So I don't see that is suddenly underpowered with the arrival of iPad 4. Most people don't even know iPad 4 exists.

 

I also played with the mini and it seemed slick and fast, just like the iPad 3 they had on display.  The store I was at had no iPad 4 on display to compare.

post #25 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post

 

In benchmarks I read the Mini was, if anything, a touch faster than iPad 1,2 and 3.  So I don't see that is suddenly underpowered with the arrival of iPad 4. Most people don't even know iPad 4 exists.

 

I also played with the mini and it seemed slick and fast, just like the iPad 3 they had on display.  The store I was at had no iPad 4 on display to compare.

I just read the benchmarks now and it does measure up favorably with the other iPads. Perhaps my review of the Maps app was shaded by the performance of the network or the application which in turn influenced my overall impression of the lack of speed. But I still liked it and look forward to receiving mine.

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post #26 of 45
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Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

(almost) no one will get what you're saying Soli.1smile.gif

Can you elucidate as I'm not sure what part of my statement won't be understood?

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #27 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I think I'll pop into my local Apple Store to see if they have any models that are sold out. With that info I might be able to create an estimate for the weekend.

Yesterday afternoon at my Apple Store at South Coast Plaza I overheard a sales rep comment to someone that they only had 2 black 64 GB left. Everything else was sold out. I have no idea how many of each they started out with.

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post #28 of 45

That does seem like a very low estimate, but lines are reported to have been quite short for this release and this was combined iPad4/Mini release. It seem iPad 3 lines alone were longer. 

 

Release fatigue?
 

post #29 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post

That does seem like a very low estimate, but lines are reported to have been quite short for this release and this was combined iPad4/Mini release. It seem iPad 3 lines alone were longer. 

Release fatigue?

If we include the number of the countries, even if weighed for population disparities, I think 34 makes it quite possible they will sell at least 2 million this opening weekend. I would say Apple had planned for a multi-million unit sales this weekend based on how long we've heard rumours and seen legitimate leaks as this points to production ramp up but will they sell that many? As chance would have it I happened upon an Apple Store employee in line before me at Starbucks this morning who was kind enough to inform me hat they sold out of all the black models yesterday and wasn't sure what the stock for white was when she left work for the day.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #30 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Can you elucidate as I'm not sure what part of my statement won't be understood?

Sorry. I thought you were making a joke, being sarcastic when implying you would make an estimate of total sales based on your local Apple Store's current inventory. Did I misread you?


Edited by Gatorguy - 11/4/12 at 9:15am
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post #31 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


If we include the number of the countries, even if weighed for population disparities, I think 34 makes it quite possible they will sell at least 2 million this opening weekend. I would say Apple had planned for a multi-million unit sales this weekend based on how long we've heard rumours and seen legitimate leaks as this points to production ramp up but will they sell that many? As chance would have it I happened upon an Apple Store employee in line before me at Starbucks this morning who was kind enough to inform me hat they sold out of all the black models yesterday and wasn't sure what the stock for white was when she left work for the day.

 

Being sold out at specific stores tells us next to nothing. Adding more countries helps, but in previous releases the biggest markets were already hit. Adding smaller market countries won't change things significantly.

 

But worldwide small lineups being short tells us there wasn't that immediate large scale demand of previous releases, especially when this was also iPad 4 launch.

 

iPad 4 + iPad mini, with smaller lines than iPad 3 alone definitely looks like release fatigue to me. Or market saturation.

post #32 of 45
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Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post

Being sold out at specific stores tells us next to nothing. Adding more countries helps, but in previous releases the biggest markets were already hit. Adding smaller market countries won't change things significantly.

And when you get reports that many stores are sold out you can't see a patten that sales have outstripped supply? I don't see how that would imply anything else.
Quote:
But worldwide small lineups being short tells us there wasn't that immediate large scale demand of previous releases, especially when this was also iPad 4 launch.

iPad 4 + iPad mini, with smaller lines than iPad 3 alone definitely looks like release fatigue to me. Or market saturation.

Again, you need to consider the number of countries, their population, the number of Apple Stores and resellers instead of just taking the number of people in line at one store.

If I hear from multiple people in multiple countries reporting that their local stores are sold out of some or all SKUs, and then factor in the ramp up time for this device based on Apple's release and leak history it's hard to say that they likely sold more than 850k units across 34 countries, in 390 official stores and countless resellers in 3 days. We're only talking about 25k units per country and I think the US will far exceed that on its own.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #33 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


And when you get reports that many stores are sold out you can't see a patten that sales have outstripped supply? I don't see how that would imply anything else.
Again, you need to consider the number of countries, their population, the number of Apple Stores and resellers instead of just taking the number of people in line at one store.
If I hear from multiple people in multiple countries reporting that their local stores are sold out of some or all SKUs, and then factor in the ramp up time for this device based on Apple's release and leak history it's hard to say that they likely sold more than 850k units across 34 countries, in 390 official stores and countless resellers in 3 days. We're only talking about 25k units per country and I think the US will far exceed that on its own.

 

I am not saying 850K makes any sense. But without know supply, "selling out" tells us nothing. Microsoft "sold out" of the $499 Surface RT tablets in one day. Meaningless without numbers.

 

But customer excitement/demand for an apple product can be somewhat gauged by line size and world wide they were small.

 

Something didn't click this time. They may have a big number to report because eventually they cleared the first run stock, but in past releases there would have been much bigger lines and the stores would have all been cleaned soon after opening.

 

I am interested in what is driving smaller line size for iPad 4 + Mini launch, than iPad 3 launch alone.

 

If (iPad4 + iPad Mini) is bringing less people to stores than iPad 3 did, something seems to be wrong.

post #34 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post

I am not saying 850K makes any sense. But without know supply, "selling out" tells us nothing. Microsoft "sold out" of the $499 Surface RT tablets in one day. Meaningless without numbers.

Hence my repeated comments about using previous weekend sales data against how long we've seen legitimate leaks which implies the longer the legitimate leaks the longer the product has been in production.

Now you can argue that they were slower in the ramp up but we're going by historical data, not what if scenarios. Since we've had very substantial leaks that turned out to be accurate since at least early September for a November launch it's likely they have been ramping up production for some time.
Quote:
But customer excitement/demand for an apple product can be somewhat gauged by line size and world wide they were small.

Something didn't click this time. They may have a big number to report because eventually they cleared the first run stock, but in past releases there would have been much bigger lines and the stores would have all been cleaned soon after opening.

What part of this aren't you getting? Of course they have smaller lines when they've updated nearly every product they make in very short time frame, but you need to consider that they are launching in 34 countries at the same time. Do you think Apple didn't consider that when they decided to add in a couple dozen more countries than usual for launch day or do you think they made 20 million for the launch weekend? I think it's the former. That doesn't mean demand will outstrip demand in any or all countries, as previously stated, but it does imply Apple is well aware of their product potential out of the gate and I can't see how you'd think otherwise.
Quote:
I am interested in what is driving smaller line size for iPad 4 + Mini launch, than iPad 3 launch alone.

What's to wonder? Those that had an iPad 2 for a year are more likely to have updated to an iPad (3) but those with a 6 month old iPad (3) are probably less likely to run out for a faster ASIC on their iPad. I certainly have no interest in an iPad (4) and will probably wait for Rogue 6 before upgrading.

As for the iPad mini, I'm certainly interested but I'd have to consider selling my iPad (3) as well as waiting for the cellular version. In fact, I'm most likely to buy an iPad mini if someone releases some excellent SW for a car in-dash system.

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post #35 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


What part of this aren't you getting? Of course they have smaller lines when they've updated nearly every product they make in very short time frame, but you need to consider that they are launching in 34 countries at the same time. Do you think Apple didn't consider that when they decided to add in a couple dozen more countries than usual for launch day or do you think they made 20 million for the launch weekend? I think it's the former.

 

What are you not getting? I keep talking about line length and you keep bringing up, adding more countries. Adding Denmark to the launch list, shouldn't shorten a line of buyers in California.

 

Quote:
What's to wonder? Those that had an iPad 2 for a year are more likely to have updated to an iPad (3) but those with a 6 month old iPad (3) are probably less likely to run out for a faster ASIC on their iPad. I certainly have no interest in an iPad (4) and will probably wait for Rogue 6 before upgrading.

 

This is my concern. That we are already sufficiently saturated, that sales come significantly from current iPad owners. So if they bought an iPad 3, they are out of the market.  Growth  could slow down a lot when the pool of non tablet owners shrinks and sales are mainly repeats.

post #36 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post

What are you not getting? I keep talking about line length and you keep bringing up, adding more countries. Adding Denmark to the launch list, shouldn't shorten a line of buyers in California.

The question is how many will they sell opening weekend. That is worldwide. For a minute lets assume that all numbers are constant. If they lines are exactly half in the US as they were for the iPad (3) launch but they have added double number of the potential customers opening weekend when you compare the difference between 10 countries for the iPad (3) v 34 countries for the iPad mini you get the same outcome.

Of course, such things aren't constant and we have too small a data set at this point in time but it's absolutely absurd for you to say that worldwide sales numbers will be abysmal because lines are shorter in California when you choose not to consider the number of additional vendors selling this product. It's not hard to see that Apple has planned for there being shorter lines than the iPad (3) launch when they choose to include 3.4x as many countries for the opening weekend while still allowing for a length production ramp up prior to selling the device.
Edited by SolipsismX - 11/4/12 at 11:35am

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post #37 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post

What are you not getting? I keep talking about line length and you keep bringing up, adding more countries. Adding Denmark to the launch list, shouldn't shorten a line of buyers in California.

 

If you consider there are no lines in California because there is no product in California, then yes. If those extra 15 countries could have sent California their share of iPads then we would have lines right now. Also remember that there are no cell devices either which are quite popular. So it looks like they are selling everything they can make and even some that they haven't made.

 

I just checked, the backorder is two weeks for the WiFi version on the online Store.


Edited by mstone - 11/4/12 at 12:03pm

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post #38 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

If you consider there are no lines in California because there is no product in California, then yes. If those extra 15 countries could have sent California their share of iPads then we would have lines right now. Also remember that there are no cell devices either which are quite popular. So it looks like they are selling everything they can make and even some that they haven't made.

I just checked, the backorder is two weeks for the WiFi version on the online Store.

Australia: http://store.apple.com/au/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Austria: http://store.apple.com/at/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Belgium: http://store.apple.com/be-nl/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Canada: http://store.apple.com/ca/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Czech Republic: http://store.apple.com/cz/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Denmark: http://store.apple.com/dk/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Finland: http://store.apple.com/fi/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
France: http://store.apple.com/fr/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Germany: http://store.apple.com/de/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Hong Kong: http://store.apple.com/hk/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Hungary:http://store.apple.com/ie/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Ireland: http://store.apple.com/ie/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Italy: http://store.apple.com/it/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Japan: http://store.apple.com/jp/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Luxemborg: http://store.apple.com/lu/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
New Zealand: http://store.apple.com/nz/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Norway: http://store.apple.com/no/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Portugal: http://store.apple.com/pt/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Singapore: http://store.apple.com/sg/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
South Korea: http://store.apple.com/kr/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Spain: http://store.apple.com/es/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
Thailand: http://store.apple.com/th/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
United Kingdom: http://store.apple.com/uk/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini
United States: http://store.apple.com/us/buy/home/shop_ipad/family/ipad_mini

All these appear to say 2 weeks. I could not check: Bulgaria, Iceland, Liechtensten, Netherlands, Poland, Puerto Rico, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden & Switzerland.
Edited by SolipsismX - 11/4/12 at 12:29pm

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post #39 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

If you consider there are no lines in California because there is no product in California, then yes. If those extra 15 countries could have sent California their share of iPads then we would have lines right now. Also remember that there are no cell devices either which are quite popular. So it looks like they are selling everything they can make and even some that they haven't made.

 

I am talking about the lineups when the store opens. These reflect demand, that has no connection with supply. People don't know how many iPads are in the store when they lineup, before the store even opens.

 

It isn't like 2000 people lined up day one, for an iPhone because they knew there were 2000 iPhones at that store, but only 20 people lined up for an iPad mini because they knew there were only 20 iPads in stock. What it means is that 2000 people at that location wanted an iPhone bad enough to stand in line. But only 20 people wanted an iPad bad enough to line up.

post #40 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post

I am talking about the lineups when the store opens. These reflect demand, that has no connection with supply.

It's an indication of demand per store but it has no barring on how many units were sold worldwide on the launch weekend. All you can do is say that if they sold half as many at a single store they sold half as many at a single store. It is no indication of sales or demand when the net is much larger than previous iPad sales.

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