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iPhone 5 capacity improving, Apple forecast to sell 46.5M phones in Dec. quarter

post #1 of 34
Thread Starter 
Despite recent comments from Foxconn admitting difficulty in manufacturing the iPhone 5, there are reportedly signs that Apple's capacity is "much improved."

Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee revealed in a note to investors on Thursday that his checks within Apple's supply chain have found that Apple has significantly improved its iPhone 5 production capacity since the device first launched in late September.

With supply constraints of the iPhone 5 expected to ease, Wu believes Apple will sell 46.5 million total iPhone units in the company's December quarter. That would be a major quarter-over-quarter increase from the 26.9 million iPhone units Apple shipped in the preceding September quarter.

Wu's analysis was issued in response to comments from Foxconn Chairman Terry Gou, who revealed this week that his company has struggled to produce the iPhone 5 for Apple. He admitted that his company has been "falling short of meeting the huge demand."

According to Wu, the supply chain bottleneck for the iPhone 5 has since moved from components to the assembly of the device itself.

iPhone 5


Reports have claimed that the iPhone 5's in-cell touch panel and aluminum chassis have caused quality control issues for both Apple and Foxconn. One unnamed source from Foxconn said in October that the iPhone 5 is "the most difficult device" the company has ever been tasked with assembling.

Last week, a poll of U.S. carriers found that iPhone 5 constraints still exist at Verizon and AT&T, America's two largest wireless providers. However, it was also discovered that supply of the iPhone 5 was increasing at Sprint, the third-largest carrier in the nation.
post #2 of 34
Good luck catching that number, Samsung.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #3 of 34

Cook has to figure out how to ramp up production to squeeze more than 50 million iPhone 5s into users hands.

 

Not that 46 million phones is a small number by any means but that includes all iPhones.
 

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post #4 of 34

Yeah, go Apple.

 

I'm still waiting for my iPhone 5 to arrive.  

 

Like normal people would really say, "Gee, I could get a Samsung phone right now, but I would rather wait a month for an iPhone."

post #5 of 34
I wonder if availability will drive up sales of the 64GB version, and thus the ASP. 16GB just doesn't cover a limited set of music (4GB), photos, and apps for me; it is surprising that the ASP has traditionally been right at $630.
post #6 of 34
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
Good luck catching that number, Samsung.


I think they can smoothly see their way to lying about the number of phones they sold, just like every other quarter.

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post #7 of 34

I think this is the same number Shaw Wu was predicting back in Sept, so apparently he hasn't changed his estimate. I guess he thinks the capacity issues are much ado about nothing.

post #8 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

I wonder if availability will drive up sales of the 64GB version, and thus the ASP. 16GB just doesn't cover a limited set of music (4GB), photos, and apps for me; it is surprising that the ASP has traditionally been right at $630.

I returned my 64GB for a 16GB model + iTunes Match and still have more than half my free space remaining. Really it was a dumb move on my part (should have just kept the 64GB after I made the purchase) but that's another story.

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post #9 of 34

Interesting to note from article where their bottlenecks were. I had assumed, given the reported altercations at some Foxconn assembly plants, that the bottleneck was in the final assembly. But this article says they were having component supply problems. Quite a difference and would mean that the prior bottlenecks would be amendable to standard quality control tasks such as tolerances, temperature, chemical, material purity, etc of automated assembly systems, and the solutions would be in hands of highly skilled scientists and engineers.

 

Final assembly woes would be quite different, and would be constrained by human tolerances, and less amenable to control by engineering. 

post #10 of 34

For a company doing SO WELL, AAPL is getting hammered on the stock market as of late. It's a joke.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #11 of 34

Panic is created by short term goal of investors to milk as much profit as they can. If you have long term view Apple is fantastic investment. Apple is creative company and they will never ruin value of brand by simply competing with price or volume. 2013 will be another sucessful year for Apple. They did not included NFC so far for a reason. One of the major issue with current NFC technology is security concern. Once Apple integrate multi layer security technology to iDevices plastic card or checkbook will become thing of past. Hang in there for a while.

post #12 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple1000 View Post

Panic is created by short term goal of investors to milk as much profit as they can. If you have long term view Apple is fantastic investment. Apple is creative company and they will never ruin value of brand by simply competing with price or volume. 2013 will be another sucessful year for Apple. They did not included NFC so far for a reason. One of the major issue with current NFC technology is security concern. Once Apple integrate multi layer security technology to iDevices plastic card or checkbook will become thing of past. Hang in there for a while.

K, thanks.

 

iTV :-)

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #13 of 34
There is a lot of whooey in these articles. The plants can make what they can make. Period. Apple doesn't stockpile for months before a launch for a variety of reasons. Maybe say a month's production output. Lets say a month can give us 25 million units. If there are 30 million folks that want the iPhone at launch that's a supply issue. The talk about how complex the iPhone is to build is just Foxconn shutting up naysayers who simply respond that they need to make more phones. As the man said, Foxconn can't change the laws of physics. Not unless folks want slapped together stuff. Which they don't so they need to chill about this totally first world issue

The supply is getting better because all those folks that had to have the iPhone now have it but the production capacity is still as high.

Same game is and will play with the iPads, 13 inch rMBP, iMacs etc
post #14 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obama View Post


Like normal people would really say, "Gee, I could get a Samsung phone right now, but I would rather wait a month for an iPhone."

A lot of them do say that, which is great for Apple
post #15 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

For a company doing SO WELL, AAPL is getting hammered on the stock market as of late. It's a joke.

Didn't you here?  Steve Jobs died and he alone invented and innovated every single thing Apple did.  Not a single person in the company had a concept of design but him so Apple will never ever again be able to come out with a new product.

 

That is the logic in Wall Street right now.  The sad part is, I expect between 70-90 million iOS devices for the December quarter and Wall Street will see that as a failure.  The P/E will drop to 9 or so while AMZN will go into the undefined P/E range (posting a total loss for the 4 preceding quarters) and their stock will sky-rocket on the news.

 

Go figure.

post #16 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

[

I returned my 64GB for a 16GB model + iTunes Match and still have more than half my free space remaining. Really it was a dumb move on my part (should have just kept the 64GB after I made the purchase) but that's another story.

64 is "too much," but 16 seems way too low-- but everybody's needs are different. Do you replace every year-- that is about the only justification I could make for the smaller size.
post #17 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

For a company doing SO WELL, AAPL is getting hammered on the stock market as of late. It's a joke.

Should I even try to use history as a basis for not jumping? Traditionally AAPL is down faster than the market, and jumps back while the bad companies are still falling.

Who made the comment about Zacky and his prediction (Zacky says $1000 so he said $500)? Looks like it might come true, although I expected a capitulation at $550.
post #18 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple1000 View Post

Panic is created by short term goal of investors to milk as much profit as they can. If you have long term view Apple is fantastic investment. Apple is creative company and they will never ruin value of brand by simply competing with price or volume. 2013 will be another sucessful year for Apple. They did not NFC for a reason. One of the major issue with current NFC technology is security. Once Apple integrate multi layer security technology to iDevices pastic car or checkbook will become thing of past. Hang in there for a while.

I doubt security of NFC is a problem. NFC has a very short distance (4cm or less), so one is protected from distant hacking. A key reason for Apple is the need to add a third antenna, acting as an induction coil. As an antenna, the amount of wire required is 11m. I wouldn't be surprised if Bluetooth 4 is being pushed as an alternative to current NFC/RFID.

 

Another reason NFC was not in the iPhone 5 is the technology is not ubiquitous and there are still battles raging within NFC creating multiple incompatible NFC protocols -- a betamax vs VHS battle -- who's going to win?

post #19 of 34
The Han hoi guy only said it Is hard to make iPhone 5 but he didn't reveal the actual number . I can say they can make 1 million iPhone 5 a day but it is still hard and not meet Apple requested demand.

It is meaningless and waste of time to feel panic if no actual numbers are revealed .
post #20 of 34
Add the 6 Million they sold in Sept and you end up with 52 Million units sold in the same time period as Samsung sold about 30 Million. Hmm. And Apple still hasn't opened up all of their markets and is STILL trying to keep up with demand.
post #21 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

The P/E will drop to 9 or so while AMZN will go into the undefined P/E range (posting a total loss for the 4 preceding quarters) and their stock will sky-rocket on the news.

 

Go figure.

 

AMZN is nearly a monopoly, APPL is not. And Wall Street loves monopolies.

post #22 of 34
So the stock dropped further on the usual post-election market dip, and analysts are stepping up claiming they know all the reasons why the price has declined (as if it's specifically an Apple problem), but remain quiet as can be on their MASSIVE buying plans. They WANT the price to decline as much as possible before they go all in.

This is a rare opportunity. You will probably not have one like this again with Apple stock. Not anytime soon, anyway. This is a "leverage everything to the hilt" moment.

In a few short months, this stock should be skimming past $800 a share if not heading toward $1,000. Mark my words. It's an opportunity to nearly double an investment in under 6 months. How often do those present themselves?

Looking at all the fundamentals, Apple is among the most undervalued 'blue chip' class stocks out there, and it is likely to dip a few $ further before the big price bumping buying spree by the institutional buyers gets underway. Don't let that stop you. Do whatever you have to do to get your hands on this stock NOW.

The fact that it's paying out quarterly dividends of over $2.50 a share is a nice bonus on top. You'll be enjoying some nice cash returns while you watch the stock price heading north...

Apple's financials for this holiday quarter are going to be unprecedented and record smashing. Nothing in Apple's (or any other company's) history will match it. Just the math alone on the expected 40 million or more iPhones puts us there.

At that point, just by P/E alone, the stock will have to go up a few hundred points from where it is today just to maintain a reasonable price point.

Basically, there's nowhere to go but WAY up.


Enough said...
post #23 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

 

AMZN is nearly a monopoly, APPL is not. And Wall Street loves monopolies.

 

A monopoly in what?  eBooks?  At best, Amazon represents 20% of online retail so that is not a monopoly (though it is very large).

post #24 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


64 is "too much," but 16 seems way too low-- but everybody's needs are different. Do you replace every year-- that is about the only justification I could make for the smaller size.

 

 

I find 32GB is pretty much "just right" for my iPhone, but 64GB is not quite enough for my iPad. I'm always having to swap stuff in and out of it. I'd love to have 128GB instead. With 32GB on iPhone + 128GB on iPad I wouldn't need much else for the iOS devices.

 

An iMac or MBP as the 'full service' computer to run Logic, Ableton Live, FCP and Photoshop. Done!

post #25 of 34

When it comes to sales expectation, I just stick with Apple's guidance, and then usually anticipate they'll do a bit better than that.

 

Wu has a mixed bag when it comes to prediction vs result… but he's VERY consistent with the "narrative" he keeps alive.

 

The biggest problem with Apple's stock prices is that they're being manipulated by over/under inflated analyst numbers (and Wu is one of the major players in that game). I think at some point the SEC may step in and hold some feet to the fire over that.

 

Fortunes are being made this way: so-called Analysts earn by tweaking expectations too high (so the price goes way up), and then the 'analysts' sell off and take profit…. of course Apple doesn't meet those over-inflated expectations and the price crashes a bit… the same analysts help the downward drive by reporting all kinds of reasons why the stock SHOULD be taking the hit (most of it emotional/manipulative stuff, and not much to do with financial realities), then they do massive buybacks as it bottoms out… that buying, together with all kinds of NEW higher-than-Apple's-guidance expectations pour out of the SAME analysts mouths, and the stock price screams back up by leaps and bounds, with the same analysts driving THAT increase by reporting all kinds of reasons why the stock SHOULD be rising (it's SO undervalued now, and WE expect HUGE record-breaking financials this quarter!), and again they sell off at a maximized profit point and those NEW over-hyped expectation of course won't be met, so shortly after that the stock tanks a bit again and………. just keep rinse-repeating.

 

Anyone on board with this pattern has made a LOT of money from this stock over the past few years alone……..

post #26 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


Who made the comment about Zacky and his prediction (Zacky says $1000 so he said $500)? Looks like it might come true, although I expected a capitulation at $550.

 

That was me. I have no idea why people hold Zacky in high regard. Like I said in a previous post, long term good (who couldn't be on AAPL!), but short term is atrocious. I doubt we will hit $500 now,I reckon this will be over today. One last double dip before the day it out and I reckon we are done. Gonna get violent though, hold on to your hats!

post #27 of 34

Yeah, Samsung already did. They sold 52 + million last quarter. Twice the number Apple did. They are expected to be north of 60 million this quarter. 

post #28 of 34
Originally Posted by xuselppa View Post
Yeah, Samsung already did. They sold 52 + million last quarter. Twice the number Apple did. They are expected to be north of 60 million this quarter. 

 

Wow. Samsung "sold" blah-de-blah number of their 50 models of phones. Apple sold nearly the same number of their THREE models of phones. Put that into perspective.

 

I'm pretty sure M&Ms are more prevalent than Godiva chocolates, too.

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post #29 of 34

People getting long term profit out before the gains rate change now that the election settles that more or less?

post #30 of 34
If IMEI numbers are anything to go by????

I got my iPhone 5 at the end of September, after the first 5 million iPhone 5's were sold.

Assuming! that Apple has a huge batch of IMEI #s and that they are sold and distributed sequentially.

The difference between the IMEI of my iPhone 5 and my brother's iPhone 5 purchased at Apple retail this week is about 9.8 million.

If the previous assumptions are valid, that means that Apple has already sold close to 15 million iPhone 5's.

The other big seller will be iPhone 4's that are free on contract. (At least in the US.)
post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

People getting long term profit out before the gains rate change now that the election settles that more or less?

Yep pretty much whats happening indeed. Of course there are the margins concerns, but we are way oversold on just the noise like management changes, maps, supply and margins.

My prediction is we will bounce between 500 and 550 for a while before it goes up again.
post #32 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Good luck catching that number, Samsung.

So if they don't reach that number make them unsuccessful?
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post #33 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

So if they don't reach that number make them unsuccessful?

That was exactly what I implied¡

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #34 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Good luck catching that number, Samsung.


I think they can smoothly see their way to lying about the number of phones they sold, just like every other quarter.

If history is anything to go by, Samsung will copy sales numbers as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by xuselppa View Post

They are expected to be north of 60 million this quarter. 

If they're going north then their numbers are plateauing.
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