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iPhone deal with China Mobile predicted to add $45 to Apple's stock price

post #1 of 13
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An anticipated deal between Apple and China Mobile, the largest wireless operator in the world, is predicted to add about $3 to Apple's annual earnings per share, and $45 to the company's stock price.

China Mobile has nearly 700 million subscribers, with 75.6 million of those currently on its high-speed 3G network. Analyst Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets believes Apple could take 13 percent of the carrier's 3G customers, with sales of between 10 million and 16 million iPhones to customers in the first 12 months of availability.

His numbers are based on adoption rates of the iPhone at AT&T and Verizon, which he has used as a proxy for potential penetration rates with China Mobile. For example, during its fiscal 2012, Apple saw cumulative iPhone units at AT&T grow 48 percent year over year.

Daryanani expects that Apple will finally ink a deal with China Mobile in early 2013. That would mean that the iPhone 5 would first debut with Apple's existing carrier partners, China Unicom and China Telecom.

RBC


China Telecom is already gearing up to begin offering Apple's latest handset, the iPhone 5, late this month or in early December, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. Both it and China Unicom are awaiting government approval to begin selling the iPhone 5.

With all three major Chinese carriers expected to offer the iPhone in the near future, Daryanani believes China will be an even greater part of Apple's business going forward. His forecast calls for the Asia-Pacific region to buy 260 million smartphone units over the next five years, which would be nearly half of the 580 million total smartphone he sees being sold through 2017.

RBC has maintained an "outperform" rating for AAPL stock, and reiterated its projected price target of $750.
post #2 of 13

Whoops, error in the title. They meant to say "subtract".

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
Reply
post #3 of 13
This analyst is the first one I've seen predict Apple will have a P/E ratio of 15 in 2013.
post #4 of 13
Apple should conservatively sell 175 million units alone in their fiscal 2013.

I believe this analyst's five year estimate of 580 million over five years is off by 80% . His number, on average, would be a comical 29 million units per quarter.

If I'm interpreting this correctly, this analyst really has no understanding of what he is talking about

Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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post #5 of 13

Great! Then I'm only down $55. 

:)

post #6 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

Great! Then I'm only down $55. 
1smile.gif

But what a buying opportunity!
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
Reply
post #7 of 13

not a genius anyway. Have been trading at that average for more than a year. More or less the same of MSFT, btw.

post #8 of 13
Stock market has no clue in its speculative biding process on stock values. The real message is that apple will sell a gazillion iOS devices and the stock market will respond tepidly. I think the current stock price sans cash is trading at a ridiculous low level.

This is OK a long as the low stock price does affect the business money making machine. If it does time to go private. The cash hoard more than pays for investment funds versus the capital markets
post #9 of 13

Apple won't be able to ramp up supply that fast even with add'l investments in manufacturing.  Regardless, AAPL should be at $700+ today and climbing towards $800.  The manipulation of this stock is truly amazing.

post #10 of 13
What China Mobile wants Apple should never give. As a government-owned entity, China Mobile probably would demand some kind of "technology transfer" in exchange for access to China's telecommunications crown jewel. What might Apple have to give up in exchange? Patents? The keys to a China-based App Store?

Don't do it Apple. It's not worth it. Take Apple products to the rest of the world and the Chinese people will eventually get it anyway through their typical back alley and underground/black market trade.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #11 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

What China Mobile wants Apple should never give. As a government-owned entity, China Mobile probably would demand some kind of "technology transfer" in exchange for access to China's telecommunications crown jewel. What might Apple have to give up in exchange? Patents? The keys to a China-based App Store?
Don't do it Apple. It's not worth it. Take Apple products to the rest of the world and the Chinese people will eventually get it anyway through their typical back alley and underground/black market trade.


Good point. Apple would never do a deal with state-owned Chinese carriers. Except, of course, they already have. China Telecom and China Unicom are also state-owned.

post #12 of 13

China Mobile needs Apple

post #13 of 13

China Mobile doesn't really need Apple at all. The Chinese have their own smartphone OS, and ecosystems with lots of apps.

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