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iPad mini carving new demand from the hide of PC sales more than existing iPads

post #1 of 48
Thread Starter 
More than half of iPad mini buyers are new to iPad, and more bought it to replace a PC than an existing iPad says a new study that indicates Apple's latest iPad is still creating new demand rather that replacing the company's existing sales.

While many pundits have predicted that a substantial portion (20-50 percent) of Apple's iPad mini sales would take a bite out of the company's existing, full sized iPad sales, a report by Wall Street Journal blogger John Paczkowski indicates evidence that supports Apple's claim that new sales are occurring largely at the expense of conventional Windows PCs.

Paczkowski cited a survey by Cowen and Co. analyst Matthew Hoffman, which indicated that 52 percent of those who said they plan to buy an iPad mini have never owned a tablet before.

iPad mini sales


Just 16.6 percent of that same group said they'd be replacing another device with the iPad mini, and among those, while 29 percent said it would replace an iPad, 42 percent said it would replace a Windows PC. Another 13 percent said it would replace a Kindle Fire.

iPad mini sales


"The iPad mini creates more demand than it cannibalizes," Hoffman stated, adding, "we see it successfully positioned as likely to penetrate new entry-tier segments."

He also noted, "Mini will no doubt take some iPad 4 sales, but its low price also looks like an important tool to capture new consumers? attention."

Early last week, Apple announced initial weekend sales of 3 million new iPads, without breaking out sales details between the full sized iPad 4 and the iPad mini.

"Customers around the world love the new iPad mini and fourth generation iPad," Apple's chief executive Tim Cook said. "We set a new launch weekend record and practically sold out of iPad minis. We're working hard to build more quickly to meet the incredible demand."

Apple has only just now started shipping cellular versions of the new iPads, which in addition to working on mobile 3G and LTE networks, also supply GPS features even without a data contract in place.

The runaway success of Apple's iPad has had a brutal impact on Windows PC makers globally, but hasn't seemed to hurt Apple's Mac sales, which continue to outpace the growth of generic PCs. Sales of iPads have eclipsed the PC sales of the top manufacturers, and forced Microsoft to both shift Windows 8 toward a tablet orientation and port Windows to the more efficient ARM architecture in a bid to compete with Apple in a market where the software giant hasn't done well in the past.
post #2 of 48
Even if sales are for replacements to iPads, those still seem like valuable sales (for example, we sold our original iPad to help finance the Mini). Perhaps troubling if the sales are in lieu of full-size iPads but, even then, better to sell that buyer an Apple product than to let the buyer go somewhere else. Small note: the 83% "not replacing" figure shows how new this market is and how much room it has before it is close to saturated.
post #3 of 48
What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...
post #4 of 48
If accurate this isn't a good sign for Windows or Win OEMs.

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post #5 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post

What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...

 

That's very interesting!  What city is your Craigslist in?  I just looked at Craigslist here in L.A. and the sellers are all asking more for their iPad Mini than the standard Apple price.  I'd like to buy one from the town you're in!

post #6 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post

What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...


I looked at those ads (for San Francisco) for a bit to check out your theory.  Looks to me like the ones selling them hoarded them with the hopes of making a profit off the backs of "desperate" buyers.  I'm crying a river for them that gambled, and lost.

Just because it's on Craigslist, I could care less if the mini's are in sealed, unopened boxes.  They better literally give them away at a steep discount if I am to even consider meeting them (and the safety issue) as opposed to buying it at a legitimate retailer.

I have no sympathy for them.  Sounds like you scored a decent deal given a 64GB mini runs $529, tack on tax after that.  Good for you!

Edit:  I looked even more closely at the Craigslist ads in SF.  There are the few that are trying to gouge folks that want one now.  The others that I see seem to want to unload them for the same price as Apple's price + tax.

I'm beginning to wonder the legitimacy of the above poster.  Either he got a seriously good deal among the masses, or the rest of his post was simply trying to give the impression that no one is buying minis which is flat-out wrong.


Edited by sflocal - 11/14/12 at 2:27pm
post #7 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post

 

That's very interesting!  What city is your Craigslist in?  I just looked at Craigslist here in L.A. and the sellers are all asking more for their iPad Mini than the standard Apple price.  I'd like to buy one from the town you're in!

 

Better wear your oven mitts where handling those "bargains." 

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post #8 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post

What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...

Sorry. Have to call BS on this one.

post #9 of 48
I just checked iPad Mini prices on Craigslist here in Palm Beach County, Florida. One person offered a "one gig" iPad Mini for $288. Since there is no such model in existance, I suggest it's likely to be a fake Chinese knockoff. All the rest were above Apple Store prices.

Maybe this is unique to SF, where people expected more desperate buyers?

D
post #10 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post

What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...

 

Better make sure it is a real iPad Mini.  I know people selling empty boxes, a wood "tablet" etc. on CraigsList.

 

I would rather buy from an eBay seller with good reviews.

post #11 of 48
You think the mini is crazy hot now just wait until it goes retina display and A 6 chip endowed next year.
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post #12 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post

What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...

Sounds like folk bought in bulk and were surprised to find that Apple produced enough to satisfy the first week's demand.

Left with a garage full of IPads, they had to drop the price or return them.
post #13 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post

What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...

Not where I am - 16GB for $425, 64GB for $540. It seems like you're the only one in the world who can get that price - congratulations on whatever it is you really bought.

post #14 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by chabig View Post

Sorry. Have to call BS on this one.

Agreed. Sounds like a scam (or simple trolling, but probably a scam). This is the start of holiday shopping season. New Apple gear, acclaimed by the lucky few to get their hands on it, does not need a discount to sell. It’s not like storing the things is expensive!

post #15 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

If accurate this isn't a good sign for Windows or Win OEMs.

 

I was thinking that same thing... If people are seeing the iPad mini as being more desirable than the dusty dinosaur they have, then Microsoft has lost the battle for the consumer's mind already; the Surface RT is too beta and too late. It will only get worse as the holiday season plays itself out. 

 

On the other side of this story; that people are buying the iPad Mini to upgrade from the Kindle Fire is saying a lot about the sweet spot where the iPad Mini is sitting. It's gonna be a very merry Christmas!

 

Remember boys and girls, if you get a slab of black plastic in your stocking, You've been a very bad child!

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post #16 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post

 

That's very interesting!  What city is your Craigslist in?  I just looked at Craigslist here in L.A. and the sellers are all asking more for their iPad Mini than the standard Apple price.  I'd like to buy one from the town you're in!

 

Same here.  I think this person is just mistaken.  

post #17 of 48
While an ipad could be used to replace much of my work on my MBP, I do not see how a mini would "replace" my MBP or a PC completely. Probably for small emails, facebook, Skype, reading, small note taking and some casual web browsing it will be great for most people. However, composing a work project, heavy photo editing, video editing, website creation and the like I could never get rid of my MBP. Most people dumping their PC won't be people who get their CPU above 10% of usage. That 52% that never owned a tablet have yet to understand what the limitations will be. I'll hold out for the 128GB ipad in a few years 1smile.gif
post #18 of 48

Studies/Surveys can be fickle...

 

As a technology user... you really CAN'T live without a notebook/desktop PC/Mac... a tablet just doesn't do enough computing.

Yes apps and mobile sites help, but there are times when we all put down the tablet, and grab the notebook... first thing that comes to mind... home finances, heavy word processing, work-related office docs...

 

And on the flip side... those surveyed want to use it to replace their smart phone? What are they going to make phone calls with?

 

To offer SOME perspective...

Goldman Sachs Survey May 2012 - 62% who own at least 1 Apple device will stay Apple

 

BUT... if a comparable device to the Apple one was at least 10%-15% less, 13% would adopt a non-Apple device. 

If the device was 21% - 30% less, 23% would adopt a non-Apple device.

 

And the top of the Tablet list for Christmas according to Techbargains.com... 33% Nexus 7, 30% iPad, 24% iPad Mini.

 
 
post #19 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

...  And the top of the Tablet list for Christmas according to Techbargains.com... 33% Nexus 7, 30% iPad, 24% iPad Mini.

 
 

 

There's your survey bias right there.  Techbargains is not going to be representative of buyers, only of cheap buyers.  

post #20 of 48
I am waiting for the report that claims sales of tweed jackets, blazers and the likes have sky rocketed since the introduction of the iPad mini.
post #21 of 48
Interesting that 8% said they would replace a smartphone. How, VOIP? Either way that could theoretically cut into iPod sales as well.

Also interesting that 4% see this as a replacement for an iPod Touch.

So that's about a million and 500k units respectively the mini is going to canibialize. A drop in the bucket even if all of those were the iPhone, but since the iPod Touch sells in much smaller numbers, and dropping year over year every quarter, that represents about 10% of its sales.
post #22 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by elroth View Post

Not where I am - 16GB for $425, 64GB for $540. It seems like you're the only one in the world who can get that price - congratulations on whatever it is you really bought.


I checked the San Diego area and they are listed between 450 to 500 for the 64GB.

post #23 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post


I looked at those ads (for San Francisco) for a bit to check out your theory.  Looks to me like the ones selling them hoarded them with the hopes of making a profit off the backs of "desperate" buyers.  I'm crying a river for them that gambled, and lost.


Just because it's on Craigslist, I could care less if the mini's are in sealed, unopened boxes.  They better literally give them away at a steep discount if I am to even consider meeting them (and the safety issue) as opposed to buying it at a legitimate retailer.


I have no sympathy for them.  Sounds like you scored a decent deal given a 64GB mini runs $529, tack on tax after that.  Good for you!


Edit:  I looked even more closely at the Craigslist ads in SF.  There are the few that are trying to gouge folks that want one now.  The others that I see seem to want to unload them for the same price as Apple's price + tax.


I'm beginning to wonder the legitimacy of the above poster.  Either he got a seriously good deal among the masses, or the rest of his post was simply trying to give the impression that no one is buying minis which is flat-out wrong.

One can get lucky on craigslist in more ways than one lol, but as far as electronics go you have to practically live on there or check it at the right time to find a bargain.
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post #24 of 48
iPad + iPad mini + Windows 8 = Beginning of death of the PC era.
post #25 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post

What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...

Lets see a screen capture of the specs.

 

I see a few under priced ads on my Craigslist but I suspect they are all scams judging how they are written and no photo or details provided. The other legitimate looking ads are all asking substantially more than list price. Seeing that there is apparently no out of stock conditions that I'm aware of, it is a pretty fair bet that you can't beat Apple's price unless it is stolen which is probably why your acquaintance could not make a profit reselling them, if he even exists.


Edited by mstone - 11/14/12 at 5:46pm

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post #26 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

If accurate this isn't a good sign for Windows or Win OEMs.

And this after the Surface surfaced!
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post #27 of 48
Some are saying they've bought online and they receive just a mirror.
post #28 of 48

It actually makes sense. I see some people just get a dumb phone when their contract is up and use the iPad mini for everything else. Why get a new iPhone and a new tablet?  You skip the data fees too unless you want them for the month.

post #29 of 48

A lot of Windows folks I know are frustrated with Windows 8. It's a ridiculous user interface. Messaging crashes and to close a program you have to drag it to the bottom of the screen? Do they realize the kind of dexterity and education that requires? I've been using computers for longer than I care to admit and worked in UI/UX firm and still couldn't figure that out, nor fathom how anyone though it was a good idea.

post #30 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

You think the mini is crazy hot now just wait until it goes retina display and A 6 chip endowed next year.

I played with one at a store tonight. I don't think the lack of Retina on the mini is that big of a deal like it was for the regular model, it still looks very nice.
post #31 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post

Interesting that 8% said they would replace a smartphone. How, VOIP? Either way that could theoretically cut into iPod sales as well.

.....

 

Many people don't need a smartphone. Lots of people like a prepaid phone for voice calls and texting, and would like to then add the iPad mini for everything else their smartphone may do but at too small a form factor for them.

 

The iPad mini doesn't have to make calls. A feature phone can do that. And then the iPad mini will satisfy their desire/need for a bigger "smartphone" without the phone.

 

I've seen this being asked for numerous times over the last couple of years.

 

Now they have it.

post #32 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

 

I was thinking that same thing... If people are seeing the iPad mini as being more desirable than the dusty dinosaur they have, then Microsoft has lost the battle for the consumer's mind already; the Surface RT is too beta and too late. It will only get worse as the holiday season plays itself out. 

 

On the other side of this story; that people are buying the iPad Mini to upgrade from the Kindle Fire is saying a lot about the sweet spot where the iPad Mini is sitting. It's gonna be a very merry Christmas!

 

Remember boys and girls, if you get a slab of black plastic in your stocking, You've been a very bad child!

The funny thing is only anti Apple tech bloggers praised and loved RT and I believe they wouldn't touch RT with a ten foot pole.

post #33 of 48
I am hurt by the lack of trust in my declared purchase! Not really, but it was a true purchase price I reported. New and sealed. I bought it through San Diego Craigslist. Most people are listing at price gauging numbers, true. That doesn't mean they are selling at those prices. About 1 in 10 listings in San Diego are for $29 less than retail for the iPad mini, I just got the exceptional deal at $450. There was another 64GB listed for $475 at the same time though. Was the iPad bought with a stolen credit card? Or through some other nefarious means? That I cannot say. It registers with Apple just fine if that is any indication.
post #34 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

As a technology user... you really CAN'T live without a notebook/desktop PC/Mac... a tablet just doesn't do enough computing.

Yes apps and mobile sites help, but there are times when we all put down the tablet, and grab the notebook... first thing that comes to mind... home finances, heavy word processing, work-related office docs...

 

No (even better on the iPad), no and no.

 

J.

post #35 of 48
I see Craigslist ads in Greensboro, NC for 16GB Minis going for 400 to 500. A few are cheaper and a couple are below retail. Saw one 32GB going for 400, 29 below retail. The vast majority are selling for over retail.
post #36 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


I played with one at a store tonight. I don't think the lack of Retina on the mini is that big of a deal like it was for the regular model, it still looks very nice.


Just as everyone thought the original iPad had a nice screen.

 

You forget about the superiority of the Retina Display once you start using the Mini. Particularly since it is soooooo easy to handle. Even with the smartcover, it is not thicker than a notepad, and it's so light.

 

I'd never think of it as a replacement for my laptop (Windows or Mac) but I don't even remember or care where my iPad3 is.

post #37 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

As a technology user... you really CAN'T live without a notebook/desktop PC/Mac... a tablet just doesn't do enough computing.
Yes apps and mobile sites help, but there are times when we all put down the tablet, and grab the notebook... first thing that comes to mind... home finances, heavy word processing, work-related office docs...


No (even better on the iPad), no and no.

J.

Yes. Yes. Yes. The iPad (or Mini) is great.
post #38 of 48
Well according to this USA Today survey 1/3 of Windows XP, Vista and 7 users say they intend to switch to an Apple product.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2012/11/14/poll-shows-us-consumers-hesitant-windows-8/1700585/
post #39 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Well according to this USA Today survey 1/3 of Windows XP, Vista and 7 users say they intend to switch to an Apple product.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2012/11/14/poll-shows-us-consumers-hesitant-windows-8/1700585/


I believe that.

 

At work, I only allow some people to use Macs. This is because the applications we need only run on Windows or Linux, and because we can get cheaper machines on both OSes. But if these apps ran smoothly on Parallels and the cost of Parallels+Apple was not so much higher, I'd seriously consider allowing everyone to move to Apple.

 

As it is, we are seriously considering replacing 1/3 of the machines with iPads once we port the data entry apps to something web-based (so that we can continue doing it on any platform, including iOS).

post #40 of 48

If one does not assume that the whole world use PC in the same manner as himself, it is easy to understand why many Windows PCs users intend to switch to tablets.

 

Who cannot live without Windows PC?


(1) Serious gamers

(2) Corporate users who must have Excel and Winword.  Winword is rather easy to replace over time.  Excel is tough.

(3) Corporate users who use in-house applications

(4) People who due to their business/professions must use windows applications.

(5) Individuals with special interests in programming, video editing, and are already proficient with windows applications.

 

(6) And then, there are the rest of the world, (I think probably the majority of people), due to lack of choices previously, simply go out to buy a Windows PC with the slightest idea of what they would use the PC for.  These people just ended up doing some emails, surfing, watching Youtube and using some social applications.

 

For the above usage, they ended up paying more for hardware/software, got windows PCs that need regular maintenance.

I know of many people who could not locate files they downloaded and have the faintest idea about installation and setting up of hardware/software.

Or maybe they are simply not interested?  Because some of these people I know are rather smart and professional in their own fields.

 

Why won't they jump to tablets?  It's cheaper, it's portable, there is nothing to maintain, they can do their emailing, surfing, watch youtube and do facebook/twitter.

And now they will have lots of free games and apps to play with.

 

And there are people who still haven't bought a PC for themselves, probably sharing with family members, why would they buy a windows PC instead of a cheaper and more portable tablet?

 

I am not at all surprised that many people will choose a tablet over a windows PC, especially for group (6).

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