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Investors advised to buy Apple stock after 'insanely insane' selloff

post #1 of 55
Thread Starter 
After eight weeks of Apple's plummeting value, one analyst believes the selloff has reached a point of being "insanely insane."

Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets is baffled by the sharp selloff of Apple stock during the company's strongest quarter of the year. In the latest downturn, the company's value is off 28 percent from its peak in September.

He noted that Apple has delivered annual growth that is 13-fold greater than the S&P 500 over the last eight years. Despite this, Apple trades at a 20 percent price-to-earnings ratio discount when compared to the S&P 500.

"While we don't expect Apple to grow (earnings per share) by 92% per annum over the next five years, we believe 20-30% growth is reasonable based on the company' slow market share in mobile phones and PCs, combined with growth opportunities in tablets and new potential areas such as Apple TV," White wrote in a note to investors on Monday.

Stock
Apple stock price over the last three months, via Yahoo Finance.


Apple had $121.3 billion in cash at the end of its fiscal year 2012, amounting to nearly $128 per share, or 24 percent of the company's stock price. Even if Apple decides to pay out a higher dividend to investors, White believes Apple will still hold nearly $204 billion in net cash by the end of fiscal 2014, which would amount to $212 per share or 40 percent of the current stock price.

"As such, the dividends that Apple can afford to pay out in the future are significant," White said, "and there is no reason why Apple should not currently be paying out at least a 3-4% dividend yield (or $16-$21 per share) versus the current 2% yield (or $10.60 per share)."

Despite recent losses, Topeka Capital Markets is standing by its $1,111 12-month price target for AAPL stock.
post #2 of 55
insanely insane

 

"Steve Jobs would never have gone meta."

post #3 of 55
Apple's P/E is astounding considering their product quality, margins, and market potential of current and future products.
post #4 of 55
its not about what they are doing. its about what will drive growth in the future. Apple TV is starting to feel distant and how many more ipad variations can they really do ?

Apple Fan and Stock Holder
post #5 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farshad Foroudi View Post

its not about what they are doing. its about what will drive growth in the future. Apple TV is starting to feel distant and how many more ipad variations can they really do ?
Apple Fan and Stock Holder

While Apple's hardware receives most of the focus, I think their greatest potential lies with their software. This is where the real profits lie, and they have only scratched the surface, here.

post #6 of 55
Strange. Would be good advice when the stock was 530, but not right now at 630. Oh well, the world investors live in...
I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
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I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
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post #7 of 55
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post
Strange. Would be good advice when the stock was 530, but not right now at 630. Oh well, the world investors live in...

 

See, you're listening to AI for your stock advice, which is a ludicrously bad idea since the thing has been broken for months.


Apple is at 550, up 25 already today.

post #8 of 55
It's taxes. Investors are selling off this year to avoid increases in capital gains and income taxes next year... For the middle class, now is the time to buy.
post #9 of 55
Mostly of the sell off was due to Tax scare coming for 2013.. Apple has made the most returns and so many are selling off to pay on capital gains.. If you look at how much was sold though, it was a fraction of the outstanding stock.. The one apple exec only sold like 1% of his stock, but got like $10m in cash for it.. most likely to cover gains taxes he expects to hit him.

But when people see an Exec selling, people panic. lol, thinking it's some type of sign.. I swear.. Wall Street is worse than a 15 year old teenager when it comes to rumors and junk.. It really is like it's run by he said/she said.. there is no true reasoning behind it anymore.. sad really.. Might as well as read the funnies to get your stock advice!
post #10 of 55
I see the OS becoming more like the iPad. Im not sure this is what computer users want if windows 8 launch is any indication. Of course Apple will do a better job then windows. Wall Street is looking at the money maker that's the iPhone. Even if the software side doubled their business. It would not resolve the lack of innovation coming out of the iPhone division. We need to see a bright future for iPhone growth or replacement/alternative . What will Apple do to get new iPhone customers, not existing ones. Thinner iphone? Faster iPhone?

Apple TV was always going to be the next growth center. Im not seeing enough rumors to support that anymore. Possibly car integration ? But even that has a limited profit center.

Holding Long.
post #11 of 55
What is "slow market share"? Is it like a 486 CPU? 1smile.gif
post #12 of 55
Originally Posted by Farshad Foroudi View Post
I see the OS becoming more like the iPad. Im not sure this is what computer users want if windows 8 launch is any indication.

 

Windows 8 ≠ iOS

Windows 8 ≠ OS X

Windows 8 ≠ anything relevant for comparison


What will Apple do to get new iPhone customers, not existing ones. Thinner iphone? Faster iPhone?

 

Why can't you think of any meaningful features? Like a Passbook that handles all manner of purchases.


Apple TV was always going to be the next growth center.

 

Why? I mean sure, yeah, it will, but.

post #13 of 55

Apple also has a lot of potential in the enterprise for their mac computers and software. I hope they take advantage of the momentum they have gained with the iPad and iPhone.

post #14 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farshad Foroudi View Post

I see the OS becoming more like the iPad. Im not sure this is what computer users want if windows 8 launch is any indication. Of course Apple will do a better job then windows. Wall Street is looking at the money maker that's the iPhone. Even if the software side doubled their business. It would not resolve the lack of innovation coming out of the iPhone division. We need to see a bright future for iPhone growth or replacement/alternative . What will Apple do to get new iPhone customers, not existing ones. Thinner iphone? Faster iPhone?

Apple TV was always going to be the next growth center. Im not seeing enough rumors to support that anymore. Possibly car integration ? But even that has a limited profit center.

Holding Long.

Apple can greatly increase its sales, just by expanding in heavily populated areas of the world, where their current presence is minimal.
post #15 of 55
They keeps showing they don't care about their pro users. Lets see if Cook changes direction.
post #16 of 55
I think Apple TV is not likely to be the big game changer every thinks. Unfortunately, this is not due to Apple's lack of creativity or talent, it's that there are so many players who don't want to play nice with Apple. The music industry signed onto iTunes very reluctantly and slowly. TV and film studios will be much slower.

Where I think the real opportunity is going to be, is mobile, but not in handheld. I'm thinking CARS! Forget dongles and bluetooth, just put the iOS in the car. You've got everything from the cloud now - music, podcasts, internet radio, navigation, phone, text, contacts, calendar, email, Facebook, all integrated in the car with Siri voice control. You don't even need your iPhone in the car.
post #17 of 55
Originally Posted by Farshad Foroudi View Post
They keeps showing they don't care about their pro users. Lets see if Cook changes direction.

 

And you think that has anything to do with the stock price?

post #18 of 55
"He noted that Apple has delivered annual growth that is 13-fold greater than the S&P 500 over the last eight years."

What he failed to mention is that seven of those eight years were while Steve Jobs was still living. The fact that Apple's co-founder and visionary leader is now dead should factor highly in any analyst's opinion. I would take this recommendation with a very large grain of salt. Apple's days of insanely rapid growth are behind it. The stock is more likely to settle into a narrow trading range typical of an equity that pays dividends, much like Microsoft's stock has.
post #19 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farshad Foroudi View Post

What will Apple do to get new iPhone customers, not existing ones. Thinner iphone? Faster iPhone?

Smaller iPhone? Wearable iPhone? Wrist Pad?

Wearable screens?—which would be a wearable, 3D, Apple TV?

When it comes to personal and portable, Apple is an invention machine. I'm not worried about future growth.

Then there's China . . .
post #20 of 55
There's no bigger herd of sheep than investors.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #21 of 55
wonder who was shorting the stock?
post #22 of 55

I wonder if island hermit bought put options..... would have been a bad move today!

post #23 of 55
Stock up almost 6% today. What fundamentally change at Apple between today and the past few weeks. Nothing. That's why, even though I'm in it I think the stock market is a joke.
post #24 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by beakernx01 View Post

I think Apple TV is not likely to be the big game changer every thinks. Unfortunately, this is not due to Apple's lack of creativity or talent, it's that there are so many players who don't want to play nice with Apple. The music industry signed onto iTunes very reluctantly and slowly. TV and film studios will be much slower.
Where I think the real opportunity is going to be, is mobile, but not in handheld. I'm thinking CARS! Forget dongles and bluetooth, just put the iOS in the car. You've got everything from the cloud now - music, podcasts, internet radio, navigation, phone, text, contacts, calendar, email, Facebook, all integrated in the car with Siri voice control. You don't even need your iPhone in the car.

I agree that it won't be a big deal for Apple, but for a different reason.  People don't buy new TVs often enough, that's what I think will be the problem.

post #25 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farshad Foroudi View Post

its not about what they are doing. its about what will drive growth in the future. Apple TV is starting to feel distant and how many more ipad variations can they really do ?
Apple Fan and Stock Holder
But doesn't this apply to other tech companies as well? I mean how much bigger can Android phones really get? And customers certainly don't seem to be eager to upgrade to the umpteen variations of Windows 8 PC's.
post #26 of 55
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
Stock up almost 6% today. What fundamentally change at Apple between today and the past few weeks.

 

This article, saying "buy".


That's why, even though I'm in it I think the stock market is a joke.

 

Apple's a long haul stock. Always has been. Dick can attest to that, I'm sure.

post #27 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I wonder if island hermit bought put options..... would have been a bad move today!


... and I thought you knew me.

 

Taking me serious on that other post.

 

Anan, Anan...

 

(ask Solipsism if he thought I was serious)

 

By the way... there could still be another week or two of sell off

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #28 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


... and I thought you knew me.

 

Taking me serious on that other post.

 

Anan, Anan...

 

(ask Solipsism if he thought I was serious)

 

By the way... there could still be another week or two of sell off

1embarassed.gif

post #29 of 55
I see it as post-Jobs fear... The iPhone 5 is likely the last product directed by Jobs, and investors who were comfortable under that spell are uncomfortable now. Despite all the sophisticated analysis involved in stock market trading, the market's behavior is dominated by primitive emotion.
post #30 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSince86 View Post

I see it as post-Jobs fear... The iPhone 5 is likely the last product directed by Jobs, and investors who were comfortable under that spell are uncomfortable now. Despite all the sophisticated analysis involved in stock market trading, the market's behavior is dominated by primitive emotion.

Must have been a very slow-developing fear....

post #31 of 55

THE MACD just crossed up this morning on the 30 point uptick, classic signal of major uncoiling. The last time this happened the stock whent up over 90 points from 560 to 750 from august thru September. Here is a sign of a potential 15-20% profit? myself I'm going to wait until next week to see if the MACD uptick is for real

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.



 Originally Posted by  thataveragejoe :  Next week  Korea Times, "I'm gay too"-Samsung



 



Reply

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.



 Originally Posted by  thataveragejoe :  Next week  Korea Times, "I'm gay too"-Samsung



 



Reply
post #32 of 55

Why is AAPL showing $628 at the top of this page?

 

700

 

It's only ~$557...

 

Tallest Skil wrote;

 

Quote:
See, you're listening to AI for your stock advice, which is a ludicrously bad idea since the thing has been broken for months.

Okay. I had not noticed.

So AI is trying to manipulate the stock price?


Edited by Chris_CA - 11/19/12 at 10:57am
post #33 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

THE MACD just crossed up this morning on the 30 point uptick, classic signal of major uncoiling. 

A 'classic signal'? Really? According to whom? Why? Any cites or empirical evidence you can point to, or is it a wild guess?

post #34 of 55
I think may be the iHaters are having an effect. The constant drone of talking points in which Apple only makes overpriced, behind-the-curve hardware is everywhere. The myth that only stupid people buy Apple products is reinforced ad nausea by trolls on every web site there is. The notion that Apple no longer innovates is another myth put forward by none other than a self-proclaimed "Apple Fan and Stock Holder" in this very thread. "Steve is gone so Apple is doomed" could be a self-fulfilling prophesy of the so-called fans who now announce their Apple street credentials (listing how long they have been an Apple user and how many products they own) only to go on and trash the company relentlessly. This FUD eventually accumulates and starts to look like the truth. Contrary to the old saying, if you tell a lie often enough people WILL begin to believe it. Finally the abject refusal to acknowledge Apple's contribution to any market or tech sector is very common among the jerk pundits and iHater crowd. I see it personally in my own home when some of my son's friends visit. They spout the most outrageous crap about Apple and apparently believe it heart and soul.
post #35 of 55
"It would not resolve the lack of innovation coming out of the iPhone division. We need to see a bright future for iPhone growth or replacement/alternative . What will Apple do to get new iPhone customers, not existing ones. Thinner iphone? Faster iPhone?"

Another misinformed piece, here why

THe iPhone is a mature product the innovation happened when it first came out, there isn't much more that can be done with it, make it thinner, its the slimmset smartphne out there, wtf are you smoking, faster, its already the feates phne on the market again start making sense

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.



 Originally Posted by  thataveragejoe :  Next week  Korea Times, "I'm gay too"-Samsung



 



Reply

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.



 Originally Posted by  thataveragejoe :  Next week  Korea Times, "I'm gay too"-Samsung



 



Reply
post #36 of 55
There was absolutely no reason for it to drop to $520's from its all time high. Issues over averting the fiscal "cliff" is just a scape goat.
post #37 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by haar View Post

wonder who was shorting the stock?

My thoughts exactly. Someone is making $$ hand over fist.

post #38 of 55
The analyst is good, but he missed the reason why Apple is only doing a 2% dividend yield and not more. The have much of that cash pile off-shore. They are going to pay taxes on it to get it back to the US only to then pay taxes to issue the dividends. If they could bring the cash home at a low to no tax rate they would pay out more in dividends.
post #39 of 55

I trust their judgement, Apple TV will come out when it's right

post #40 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

There's no bigger herd of sheep than investors.

 

Wealthy sheep.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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