Apple on pace to sell 4.8M Macs in holiday quarter, down 7% year over year - Page 2

As a few other apparently overly perceptive people have posted...

There is a lull in sales-so-far, because people were and still are waiting for newer models to be released. How an analyst can project current sales for the rest of the quarter is remarkably naive. New iMacs were released before the 1st fiscal quarter (fourth, calendar) began last year so it was easier to predict then.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 


It was, and I'm sure it has something to do with it but the bigger reason is that we are in a Post PC world. If Apple loses a Mac sale to another PC OEM or other tablet OEM then it truly is a loss for Apple but we need to prepare ourselves that modern tablets are more than adequate for most people for most of their tasks.
One thing I've seen from Mac users isn't so much that they are giving up their Macs but that they aren't replacing them as often as they use to. It's affects the sales numbers. I used to buy a new 13" MBP with each revision but stopped doing that in 2010. I assume the I Pad had something to do with that. I will be buying a 27" iMac (moving away from notebooks, again because of the iPad) ASAP. I figure this will be my last Mac purchase for many years.
I do wonder what those not want Win8 will do moving forward. I will be a slow burn but Apple could easily reap the rewards. To me, the only important metric isn't the growth of the PC market but the growth of the PC sans Macs that will tell us the health of Macs in the market. Fir example, if we look at the PMP market the iPod is still king despite the drop in sales

Some of it is the iPad, and some of it is late refreshes, but I don't see it as 7%. I think some of it is technology progress in general. WHY do people need to upgrade for basic uses? Do you really need 18 cores to type a word document or buy an iTunes track?

On your Win8 question, similar story. People will stick with Windows 7, which actually has pretty high satisfaction ratings. Microsoft has trained people every other release is terrible anyway (ME, Vista) They live on legacy, legacy, legacy. They are still selling 7 in their own store. Heck there are places that STILL won't give up XP. Long story short it will be at least a year or two before the ripple effects are seen. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by anantksundaram 

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

1. They waited far to long to get USB3 bearing Mac desktops out after Ivy Bridge arrived. Many will say it doesn't matter to Apples customer base to which I say bull shit! Apples dragging of its feet with respect to USB3 has put off many customers.
2. The Mac Mini was apparently delayed for many months just so it could launch with iMac which is asinine. This is especially damning when for the most part the Mini upgrades where trivial or even a regression in capability.
3. On that Mini regression they dropped the model with the discrete GPU which was Apples only low cost solution for people needing GPU acceleration. Frankly many if us where waiting for a significant improvement in the built in GPU, instead we get a regression.
4. The roll out of the iMac has apparently been put off for months due to technical glitches. When Apple announced the new iMac they stopped sales of the old iMac. That means weeks of no sales for the only desktop they have that maintains respectable sales.
5. While not a normal Christmas buy the Mac Pro is dead as far as being hardware desirable to just about anybody.
6. All of the above are desktop related but let's face it they took a very long time to meet demand for the new retina laptops. There is a real question as to their ability to meet any seasonal surge in demand for the retina machines.
7. As nice as the AIRs are, Apple is again dragging its feet with respect to suitable secondary storage space. In other words the built in SSDs are too small at each price point.

Gene Munster's predictions are often wrong and never help. He is never low on AAPL. He contributes to the "average analyst numbers". When he targets AAPL to ridiculous highs, AAPL goes down as having  "disappointed analysts' expectations". His comment about "worse case scenario of 6 million for iPhone 5" sales in first weekend began the AAPL descent when they 'only' sold 5 million. Only?  Seems like a nice guy who loves Apple but I would like it if Gene took the next year off...

"Munster's estimates call for Mac sales to be down 7 percent year over year in the December quarter, which would be 4.8 million total units."

I guess Munster doesn't believe there will be massive migration from PC to Mac because of Win 8.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by thataveragejoe 

 

Some of it is the iPad, and some of it is late refreshes, but I don't see it as 7%. I think some of it is technology progress in general. WHY do people need to upgrade for basic uses? Do you really need 18 cores to type a word document or buy an iTunes track?

 

On your Win8 question, similar story. People will stick with Windows 7, which actually has pretty high satisfaction ratings. Microsoft has trained people every other release is terrible anyway (ME, Vista) They live on legacy, legacy, legacy. They are still selling 7 in their own store. Heck there are places that STILL won't give up XP. Long story short it will be at least a year or two before the ripple effects are seen. 

agree with you that most will stick with W7 indefinitely. but ... some major fraction of Windows users never got W7. and some other major fraction just need a new computer for whatever reason - and consumers can no longer buy W7 PC's.

those two groups are Apple's immediate target market. so i don't think it will take a year to see a significant amount of switching.  and the longer MS delays allowing OEM's to sell W7 PC's again, the more will switch.

Quote:

Originally Posted by markrogo 

The fiasco of not having any iMacs to sell for months is an embarrassment for the once-proud computer division. Period.

They will still make more money from macs than all other OEMs (together) from PCs.

It's about choice. I seriously hope they axe the regular 13 and 15, so they can focus on retinas and airs, imacs (why not a smaller one, like 19?), mac pro (updated like it should). That's it.

They should also stop all iPods bar the touch.

All Apple software (besides trully pro apps) should be free (OS, iwork, ilife and they should make one game)

axe 16gb iphones (use 128gb models), maybe another iPhone model (bigger).

That's it. They are making too many devices... who cares about markets share. The mac is proof that marketshare does not matter that much in order to provide the best experience and earn the most money.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wizard69 


No one is suggesting cheap crap. This idea that Apple can't produce a lower cost computer is nonsense. If anything the Mini represents a significant piece of crap if you consider what you get for the price ( this in comparison to other Apple hardware).

I agree. The prices for a top-end iMac have been slowly decreasing, even with added features. The lower Apple can price a quality product, the better. I remember Steve Jobs being ecstatic about the price point of the original iPad. All things the same, you'll sell more kit at lower prices. I've been surprised that Apple has been able to create such cool products and keep their high margins going in this rough economy. Kudos. But I still get a tingle when I'm surprised by value.

I'm anxious to price out the latest iMacs. It's been too long!

Apple has Zero New iMacs available as I write this. Only refurbs if you want a DVD drive and a discount.

I am a bit puzzled that you can't even Pre-order the 21.5". Is the (screen) "welding" problem worse than my beloved Apple is letting on?

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 


Correction: Apple has zero iMacs available, only refurbs.
PS: We rightly pooh-pooh other vendors for announcing products that have no launch dates. I understand they couldn't do an event in the last two months of the calendar year and the changes were too big to make them silent upgrades when they are ready, but Apple still needs to be called out for doing what other vendors do all the time.

Cook better not pull this shit too often or he'll be going the way of the 17" MBP.

[what's good enough at Microsoft is not at all acceptable at Apple]

Quote:

Originally Posted by shuntsu 

It's all tablets this year - macs (and PCs) are just not gonna be the big sellers they once were.

Won't just be this year.

Imacs will help boost sales. However post recession and hurricane effects will hurt sales this quarter but boost sales next quarter as people will have to replace  damaged Pc's Laptops etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh 


I felt so too, but my little sister was convinced that she needed the $1999 256 as a replacement for her G4 MBP. She got more storage, and an SD card slot that she could put extra stuff onto easily enough, and shed a couple pounds in the process.
Apple does a great job playing the price points and features. It works.
This quarter will be hard without the iMacs or the updated Pro, and the Mini just doesn't seem competitive to me. But I doubt Apple will do "much" worse than the PC market.

The entry level storage size does seem like a bait-and-switch, but maybe there are people that don't really need any storage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifij775 

The entry level storage size does seem like a bait-and-switch, but maybe there are people that don't really need any storage.

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bait-and-switch

Maybe there aren't enough factories in the world qualified to make Apple products. If the Iphone and the Ipad draw too many manufacturing resources to meet demand then the Mac computer line may be stuck with second string. Same might be true of Apple engineering systems. 

The cost of making a 17" MacBook should be minuscule. They use the same motherboard. The could use the same layout cut in the 17' body and just add the 17" screen. It would be that big of a tool up.

Well, Apple hasn't yet released the iMacs for shipment, which would have probably increased those numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifij775 

 

The entry level storage size does seem like a bait-and-switch, but maybe there are people that don't really need any storage.

Storage, who needs a boatload of storage when you got the iCloud...!

Have no fear boys and girls, SantaMan will have enough goodies (and even iMacs) for your holiday pleasure. Watch for his Apple-red svelte figure to bring you one of those razor-thin iDevices or an MBA...

Quote:

Originally Posted by iPersian 

The recent releases havent been good exactly.

ive returned two macbook pro retinas due serious issues. the screens are faulty as hell. both had ghosting /IR issues.

Now ive left the mac after 17 years of being a macuser. will order my samsung laptop soon.
 

If Mac sales actually are down at the end of the quarter, will anyone THEN be willing to consider the possibility that maybe the current direction of hardware development is less appealing to buyers? I don't begrudge Jony the right to jerk off however he wants, but I just wish he would also consider MY needs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AppleGreen 

[...] The Fusion Drive is a major attractive feature.

Is it really? I don't know...

My hard drive died last weekend so I replaced it with a Seagate hybrid. Beyond an improvement in boot time -- not what I'd call dramatic, but clearly apparent -- I haven't really noticed any difference. I wonder if use patterns affect the degree of improvement one realizes?

Quote:

Originally Posted by wizard69 


To put it bluntly Apple has screwed up the management of the Mac line significantly. At least in the sense of the desktops. To highlight some of the screwups:

 

They waited far to long to get USB3 bearing Mac desktops out after Ivy Bridge arrived. Many will say it doesn't matter to Apples customer base to which I say bull shit! Apples dragging of its feet with respect to USB3 has put off many customers.

Yes, yes, yes. I put off buying a new machine while I waited for Apple to FINALLY include USB3, and by the time they did they had screwed up the rest of the machine by letting Jony's obsession with anorexic form factors force us into awkward choices.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wizard69 

On that Mini regression they dropped the model with the discrete GPU which was Apples only low cost solution for people needing GPU acceleration. Frankly many if us where waiting for a significant improvement in the built in GPU, instead we get a regression.

 

I *was* going to replace my one-year-old Mini to get USB3, but now won't bother. I don't know what I'm going to do, because both the video capture and storage devices I was hoping to use are USB3. I *could* use Thunderbolt instead, but the devices themselves are a full third-again more expensive and I'm looking at $100 worth of cables to connect them.

 

Added to the list:

8. Having to choose between inadequate storage and RAM or paying absolutely EGREGIOUS upgrade prices. $2/GB for storage?! That's insulting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolipsismX 

And they don't so either your analysis is wrong or the cost to profit ratio is less desirable than what you've considered.

Well, at least three of us just on this thread seem to want a 17" so it SEEMS like there must be close to as many of us as there are people who want a 13" Pro (not to be confused with the horde that want a 13" computer but buy the Air rather than the Pro).

I fully realize that it's wishful thinking, but I'd like it if Apple retained the occasional "goodwill" product. Maybe it doesn't matter to Apple if some mobile creatives choose another platform over a smaller screen, but it would sure make me feel warm and fuzzy if Apple adopted a stance like "The 17" isn't a big money maker but it's not a money loser either, and our core old guard seem to really like it so why not? Hell, we can afford it. We've got more money than... well, ANYBODY."

Quote:

Originally Posted by peter236 

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.

No, they don't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wizard69 

You can not be so gullible as to believe the marketing crap Apple let's out of the gate every so often. History, very recent history, shows that Apple is very concerned about sales and will kill a product so quickly that it catches many by surprise. If Apple wasn't concerned with Numbers we would still have a 17" MBP in the lineup.

Of course, they're concerned about sales -- but only in the market sectors they sell in. 

They're not interested in the market sector for cheap machines because that's where the PC manufacturers are struggling to stay profitable.