Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff
the comparison is made on a guess of this year and last year's whole numbers. and it's an Estimate based on an Estimate (It's not even Gene's numbers, but his interpretations of NPD's numbers).
It's not a real decline until apple posts numbers.
What sort of bizarre logic is apple stock price have to do with consumer purchase? I've heard that in the past by the corporate sales Microsoft/IBM FUDdie duddies ('Don't buy that, they'll be out of business next year'), but really?
The reasons for not a buying a mac now are pretty obvious.
We are still in a consumer recession. if there are 12Million people out of work... they sure as sh*t aren't buying a new $1000 device. They may buy a phone, but a $1000 mac? hardly. Remember, we're 4 years into it now... Mac sales have grown in real numbers through out this mess, and just now are starting to taper off, probably because most people are 'making do' (My last Mac purchase was 2.5 years ago, and I'm in Tech... See next).
True. Recession is hurting all computer sales, in general (though I believe some OEMs have reported growth compared to previous year, like Asus)... so I'd expect Macs to be hurt, to some degree at least. In fact, it seems logical to me that some people will lower their standards and opt to buy cheaper computer that will serve them good enough, in this economy.
The negative impact of Quality: Mac Products last longer than 3 years. My Macbooks are 3 and 4 years old. My Son in grad school is running on a 2003 G4 Titanium Powerbook (granted we cobbled it together with another when one motherboard died and the other's screen died in 2008). My other son in med school replaced a 2005 MacBookPro. with a new MBA in August.
I'd expect that this hasn't changed much in the last few years - Macs reliability - so that shouldn't start making difference now. I would expect, however, that hardware has reached level where everyday usage doesn't benefit from newer and faster. Last year, I gave my Core 2 Duo laptop from 2008 to my brother, and he is apsolutely happy with it. He is emailin, browsing, FBing, organizing his photos, other usual staff - YouTube, DivX watching... since that is where his interest in computers ends, I can see him using that machine for as long as it works. Add that to poor economy, and it might be IT.
Win8 and Surface Release: I think a lot of potential MBA buyers held off until the new crop of Microsoft stuff came to market. Give them 6 months;-), and 25% will be craigslist fodder and they'll buy a MBA or an iPad.
I'd be surprised. If anything, release of iPad 4 should defer people from buying Air, not release of Surface. I don't think that too many - if any - Mac users would switch to Windows tablet, especially first gen unknown entity like Surface. If Surface and other W8 tablets are hurting computer sales, that would be Windows ultrabook and laptop sales predominantly.
Self Competition: I wouldn't be surprised if the new iPad and Mini cannibalizes the MBA/iMac. How many people NEED a brand new desktop mac? your old mac works just fine when you are wandering through the house with absolutely beautiful iPad 4 or light as a feather iPadMini connected via icloud.
(my iPad does a better job with mp4s than my mac, and it's brutally easy to AirPlay them to my TVs... I've got one long HDMI cable for sale because of this).
Now we are talking... but there also might be some unforeseen reasons. I came across this by accident - a friend of mine, who is BMW enthusiast (being German from Bavaria) and Mac user, likes to repost BMW NZ FB posts. Following is one of them, and I don't have any clue how legit it is; I would likely doubt it if released by Apple competitors, but I cannot see a reason why BMW would do something like that.
Quote: Global RepTrack 2012 surveyed 47,000 people from 15 countries, including North America and Europe, ranking the reputation of the top 100 global companies. The Reputation Institute determined BMW as the world’s Most Reputable Company. Brand recognition and awareness are two of the most powerful attributes that identify a successful company – what other qualities make BMW world leading in your eyes?
Of course, this is BMW marketing... but if this is legit, Apple reputation slipped from 2nd to 5th spot in a year time. Google did even worst, going from 1st to 6th... but MS appeared from nowhere (below top ten in 2011, obviously) to 7th.
Is this possible? I believe so. This is 1st post-Jobs year for Apple, after all. Regardless of how useful Jobs was for Apple in the last decade, situation with company being associated with CEO on such level must cause some issues in public eye once CEO is not around any more... and Apple management did pull some moves which, if you are not one of Apple's faithful, can shake your trust in the company. In short, Apple is sailing through storm caused by Jobs death (even if that storm is only perceived in the eye of public), and there is not much to do but to endure through and rebuild company's post-Jobs image as good as possible.