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Apple's iPad projected to control 50% of tablet shipments through 2016

post #1 of 49
Thread Starter 
Apple's total share of the growing worldwide tablet market is forecast to shrink slightly but maintain iPad dominance through the year 2016 in the face of growing competition from Android and Windows.

IDC


IDC believes a total of 122.3 million tablets will be shipped in this year, with 53.8 percent of those being iPad models from Apple. If accurate, that number would be slightly lower than the 56.3 percent of shipments Apple accounted for in 2011.

Tablets running Google's Android operating system are expected to capitalize and grow from 39.8 percent in 2011 to 42.7 percent of shipments in the full year of 2012.

Despite the recent launches of Windows 8 and Microsoft Surface, total Windows-based tablets are expected to account for just 2.9 percent of tablet shipments in 2012. IDC believes Microsoft's Windows platform will grow to 10.2 percent by 2016.

Microsoft's projected gains in market share will come at a cost to both Apple's iOS and Google's Android, as IDC believes they will both see their total share slip through 2016. IDC's forecast calls for Apple's iPad to account for 49.7 percent of tablets shipped in 2016, while Android will represent 39.7 percent of tablets.

In all, IDC expects total 2012 tablets shipments will hit 122.3 million, while next year the market will grow to 172.4 million. By 2016, worldwide tablet shipments are predicted to reach 282.7 million units.

"Tablets continue to captivate consumers, and as the market shifts toward smaller, more mobile screen sizes and lower prices points, we expect demand to accelerate in the fourth quarter and beyond," said Tom Mainelli, research director, Tablets at IDC. "Android tablets are gaining traction in the market thanks to solid products from Google, Amazon, Samsung, and others. And Apple's November iPad mini launch, along with its surprise refresh of the full-sized iPad, positions the company well for a strong holiday season."
post #2 of 49
Are there any DATA to justify Windows growing its share?
Methinks not.
post #3 of 49
So this is why AAPL stock is down over 4% today?
post #4 of 49
What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.

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post #5 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.

 

They're talking about shipments, not necessarily sales. As more and more tablets enter the market there is no place for anyone else to go but down.

 

Apple's numbers are driven by demand, everyone else so far is nothing more than desire - They hope to sell what they're shipping.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #6 of 49

Who cares? If shipments mean anything, why not just cut aluminum blocks into trillions of pieces and ship those? There's your volume right there.

 

Oh, wait, no one would buy just a little piece of aluminum. No one would develop for just a little piece of aluminum. No one would be satisfied with a little piece of aluminum.

Originally posted by Marvin

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #7 of 49

The issue with projections like this is that they're forecasting that windows tablets will see growth, making an assumption that just because it's windows, it will drive growth.  This kind of guessing reminds me more of how things played out with the iPod.  Big ol' MS comes to market with the iPod/iPhone/iPad killer and a lot of great prognosticators forecast Apple to lose share.  We haven't seen that yet, so shouldn't ideas like this be called on the carpet?

 

What they are not taking into consideration is that Apple will most likely update and change both the iPad as we know it today and iOS as well by 2016 - maybe several times over.  But why give Apple any credit - since they haven't exactly been doing anything right over the past 5+ years...at least compared to Microsoft.

post #8 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.

It's the sold vs shipped thing again. Personally I only think tablets that are sold should be classed in these figures, but most analyst tend to disagree.

iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #9 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes View Post

Are there any DATA to justify Windows growing its share?
Methinks not.

Remember when Win Phone was predicted to overtake iOS by now? Seems unlikely from what I've seen with the Surqcw and Win8.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #10 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmgregory1 View Post

The issue with projections like this is that they're forecasting that windows tablets will see growth, making an assumption that just because it's windows, it will drive growth.  This kind of guessing reminds me more of how things played out with the iPod.  Big ol' MS comes to market with the iPod/iPhone/iPad killer and a lot of great prognosticators forecast Apple to lose share.  We haven't seen that yet, so shouldn't ideas like this be called on the carpet?

What they are not taking into consideration is that Apple will most likely update and change both the iPad as we know it today and iOS as well by 2016 - maybe several times over.  But why give Apple any credit - since they haven't exactly been doing anything right over the past 5+ years...at least compared to Microsoft.

What did MS do right over the past ten years?

Please enlighten me at least Apple introduced the disruptive IPhone and IPad.
post #11 of 49

Check your sarcasm monitor, because I don't think you got was I was suggesting.  I don't believe MS has done anything impressive in the past 10 years, but for some reason both the tech pundits and financial analysts seem to give them more credit than Apple gets.  It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.  I think a lot of it has to do with the shift that's occurring in the tech industry and how a lot of people are still so entrenched in legacy systems and technology, they can't see beyond what they know or knew.

 

Just look at all the MS fans talking about ways they can kill Metro so they can use Windows 8 as if it were 7.  That kind of resistance to change and MS's willingness to allow people to keep living in the past is going to eventually catch up with them (I think it already has).

post #12 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

It's the sold vs shipped thing again. Personally I only think tablets that are sold should be classed in these figures, but most analyst tend to disagree.

Where are all these millions of shipped-yet-never-sold Android tablets actually ending up? Perhaps they are being grinded up as raw materials for the foundation of Apple's new spaceship campus.

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post #13 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

So this is why AAPL stock is down over 4% today?

That reportedly has to do with increased margin requirements in reaction to Octobers "rogue" trader amongst other concerns.

post #14 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

So this is why AAPL stock is down over 4% today?

First off there has been a lot of upper management exec at Apple that have been selling of options, which most of them get a lot more options in a few years. but people get paranoid when they see a lot of sell off from upper management.  Secondly, i think the tax laws change next year, so maybe people are dumping shares now to avoid future taxes if they held on to the stock.  I think once Apple stock goes down to a P/E of less than 12, it will be a buying opportunity.  Just speculation on my part.

post #15 of 49

So, they dump just APPL stocks and not others? But, you're right IT IS YOUR SPECULATION.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

Secondly, i think the tax laws change next year, so maybe people are dumping shares now to avoid future taxes if they held on to the stock.  I think once Apple stock goes down to a P/E of less than 12, it will be a buying opportunity.  Just speculation on my part.

post #16 of 49
Originally Posted by fireside View Post
So, they dump just APPL stocks and not others? But, you're right IT IS YOUR SPECULATION.

 

So… your speculation would be that Apple Is Doomed™, since you've said nothing else.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #17 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamC View Post

What did MS do right over the past ten years?
Please enlighten me at least Apple introduced the disruptive IPhone and IPad.

If you mean market success their server and productivity suites are highly profitable. If you mean something more subjective I'd say they've done a great job with Win Phone in terms of a useful UI that isn't stealing from Apple. They've also made leaps and bounds with IE and the NT kernel in ways I didn't this was possible at MS.

They certainly don't have any mindshare with consumers but they are still a highly profitable and powerful company that will not be closing it's doors anytime soon.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #18 of 49
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple's total share of the growing worldwide tablet market is forecast to shrink slightly but maintain iPad dominance through the year 2016 in the face of growing competition from Android and Windows.

 

And what percentage of the profits in the "tablet" market will Apple be making through the year 2016?

I expect total Apple dominance, profit-wise.

 

Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Android tablets are gaining traction in the market thanks to solid products from Google, Amazon, Samsung, and others. ..."
 

 

By 2016 there will be two main forks of Android: the Amazon fork and the Samsung fork.  Samsung will fork Android so it can optimize

its hardware and software for each other.  The better to crush whatever Android hardware competitors Samsung might still have in 2016.

 

Android developers will code to the Samsung fork first because of its market share.  Google's generic "vanilla" Android releases will

be irrelevant.  Only the niche-market Nexus phones and pads will run it.  Along with the odd Motorola phone and pad, unless Google

dumps Motorola between now and 2016.

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post #19 of 49
Wake me up when your kid, your wife, or anyone you know tells you that they want a Surface.
post #20 of 49
You can justify Windows growth on the basis of desktop cannibalization which expands the overall market. The flaw in the logic is more that they only see a 23% long-term annual growth rate for tablet sales (15% after 2013). For MS to actually sell 28MM tablets, the market is going to need to be much larger-- likely closer to 500MM units or more, which would put them closer to a 5% share. The "good" news for MS is that they are quite likely to see the 28MM sales... unfortunately at a much larger cost in desktops.
post #21 of 49

MS does indeed own the enterprise market, but even they understand that change is happening.  The shift with businesses allowing their employees to use their own devices is something I'm sure MS never thought would happen - not when said devices have been iPhones, iPads and MacBook's.  As much as IT professionals loathe this change as much as MS does, the savings companies realize when this occurs can be substantial and something you have to expect will continue, and in all likelihood accelerate.  The user experience Apple has fostered should be embarrassing to MS when you look at the direction they're going now.  I understand that they (MS) have to support the sub-set of businesses created to fix MS's own issues, but the reality is people, both consumers and business employees, want things to be simple to use and to work without tweaking settings or needing an IT person to make things right.

 

I'm sure there is a group of people out there that actually like MS and their OS and programs, but I just don't see a majority of windows users saying they wish they could have the same windows experience on their phones and tablets - because that would mean they'd get to experience all the frustrations of working with MS that they commonly get while at work.

 

The only way I see them getting any meaningful market share is if they can convince enough IT heads and corporations to force Surface tablets down the throats of their employees.  Otherwise common sense tells me they're going to have to work hard just to maintain niche status of the Surface, let alone see any kind of broad implementation.

post #22 of 49
What I'm curious about is where the analysts are going to group the Win 8 Pro devices like the ATIV, Lenovo Yoga, Dell Brick...um... forgot.

Are they tablets? Laptops? Ultra touchbooks? A new category all together?

Win RT aka WART is 100% DOA and will cease to exist com February/March 2013. That you can take to the bank!
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #23 of 49
This article should be titled- IDC PROJECTS - 141 MILLION IPADS SOLD ANNUALLY BY 2016

How this gets twisted around to be a PROBLEM is both remarkable and lame.
post #24 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmgregory1 View Post

MS does indeed own the enterprise market, but even they understand that change is happening.  The shift with businesses allowing their employees to use their own devices is something I'm sure MS never thought would happen - not when said devices have been iPhones, iPads and MacBook's.  As much as IT professionals loathe this change as much as MS does, the savings companies realize when this occurs can be substantial and something you have to expect will continue, and in all likelihood accelerate.  The user experience Apple has fostered should be embarrassing to MS when you look at the direction they're going now.  I understand that they (MS) have to support the sub-set of businesses created to fix MS's own issues, but the reality is people, both consumers and business employees, want things to be simple to use and to work without tweaking settings or needing an IT person to make things right.

I'm sure there is a group of people out there that actually like MS and their OS and programs, but I just don't see a majority of windows users saying they wish they could have the same windows experience on their phones and tablets - because that would mean they'd get to experience all the frustrations of working with MS that they commonly get while at work.

The only way I see them getting any meaningful market share is if they can convince enough IT heads and corporations to force Surface tablets down the throats of their employees.  Otherwise common sense tells me they're going to have to work hard just to maintain niche status of the Surface, let alone see any kind of broad implementation.

Really great post!

Just one note though: you talking about WinRT (WART) Surface or Pro?

I watched this morning the review of the ATIV Surface Pro on YouTube. It has a certain compelling look and use-case scenarios to it for some(!) people I know. The current pricing puts it out of the picture for now, but come April-May when all of the OEMs start to go south bottom-feeding at around 500-600.-... yeah... compelling is the right word.
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #25 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

Really great post!

Just one note though: you talking about WinRT (WART) Surface or Pro?

I watched this morning the review of the ATIV Surface Pro on YouTube. It has a certain compelling look and use-case scenarios to it for some(!) people I know. The current pricing puts it out of the picture for now, but come April-May when all of the OEMs start to go south bottom-feeding at around 500-600.-... yeah... compelling is the right word.
I guess what I'm talking about is the dual OS tablet cum ultra ultra book, the surface and it's like, not to mention the touch screen laptop and desktops they're trying to promote now (again) too.  In regards to the MS 8 tablets, whether they're RT or Pro doesn't really matter.  The excitement I hear from people who want a Pro speaks only to the fact that they can run it as if it were their desktop/laptop - which is great if what you're really looking for is simply a smaller form factor laptop, but I dare anyone to use some if not all legacy windows desktop programs on a touchscreen tablet without adding in a keyboard and mouse.  And once you do that, so you can operate said program, then you're not using the tablet as a tablet - you're using it as a laptop.  

And in a more general sense, I was talking about the issues many people face on a regular basis using windows based systems at work.  I know I was one of those people that was windows at work, Mac at home, mostly because I didn't want to keep dealing with the hardware and software issues I faced using my company laptop and system.  At the point where I could make the decisions regarding hardware and software, guess which way I went?

Off topic, sort of, is MS's idea of making the desktop/laptop OS touch based.  I just don't see how it can physically work that way in the same way trying to make non-touch based programs work in a touch based hardware application.  MS isn't trying to create something new, they're trying to skimp on creating os's that work based upon the form factor of the hardware.  Without some drastic innovations in hardware, and even then I'm not sure it will work, trying to go from typing on a horizontal keyboard and using either a mouse or trackpad to seamlessly touching the screen on a desktop or laptop makes zero sense.  At least as far as traditional use goes.  

Sure, there are situations like graphic design, where keyboard use could be all but eliminated and replaced with a touch screen interface, but that is NOT MS's bread and butter business.  Show me how this could make sense running excel or even word - and I'm talking using a desktop or laptop.  How does it make sense to move your hand from the flat plane in front of you to a position where you have to hold your arm and hand up, being careful not to push too hard on the screen for fear of knocking it over or changing the angle of view?  How does that make sense in the real world?  I'm not a human mechanics engineer, but it doesn't take but a second of playing around to realize this is not the way forward.

It will be a different story if we can get to the point of non-touch finger, hand or even eye movement control of our computers, ala Minority Report style computer interface, but we're not there yet.
Edited by jmgregory1 - 12/5/12 at 12:50pm
post #26 of 49
only a few years ago the same was said about android phones..... and the same arrogant disbelief was shown. Apple should be so lucky to hold onto a lead till 2016
post #27 of 49
Originally Posted by petrosy View Post
only a few years ago the same was said about android phones..... and the same arrogant disbelief was shown. Apple should be so lucky to hold onto a lead till 2016

 

What? How is this… right?

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #28 of 49
W
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post

They're talking about shipments, not necessarily sales. As more and more tablets enter the market there is no place for anyone else to go but down.

Apple's numbers are driven by demand, everyone else so far is nothing more than desire - They hope to sell what they're shipping.
When RIM and HP shipped tablets that couldn't sell, they were forced to write down the inventory and orchestrate fire sales. But in each case, the numbers were around 1-2M units. The Android volume cited here is more like 10-20M units. Do you seriously believe companies are shipping and not selling that many? Shouldn't we be seeing write downs?

Lest we forget, B&N and Amazon are selling Android machines (and not just shipping).

I do agree that it's premature to assume MS will have a notable presence in the tablet market.
post #29 of 49

IF I primarily play on the tablet by surfing the web, checking facebook, watching netflix and playing games AND

IF I didn't mind a keyboard case on my tablet AND

IF I primarily work using a keyboard and mouse on Windows apps THEN

I could see buying a Surface Pro.

 

I don't mind the sharp change between legacy and "modern" modes because I'm also mentally switching modes when I switch from work to play.  Laptop mode = work.  Tablet mode = play.

 

I've always wished that the MBA could turn into an iPad by undocking the screen so I only had to have one machine.  I like OSX to much to switch but if I was Windows only then I'd seriously it.

post #30 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by petrosy View Post

only a few years ago the same was said about android phones..... and the same arrogant disbelief was shown. Apple should be so lucky to hold onto a lead till 2016

I don't know if it has to do with arrogance. But you're right. There once was contempt about genuine number of Android activations. Even Apple got into the gamesmanship a bit. The tide started to turn in Amdroid's favor even before Galaxy became a best seller. But once it did, the data became irrefutable. So what barrier is there to prevent a repeat of history?
post #31 of 49
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post
…activations. …But once it did, the data became irrefutable.


Right, like how the number of sold phones stated was exposed as a lie when the actual numbers were uncovered. And how they report shipped (or don't report at all) instead of sold. And in this irrefutable data, do they ever explain what an 'activation' is? lol.gif

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #32 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Right, like how the number of sold phones stated was exposed as a lie when the actual numbers were uncovered. And how they report shipped (or don't report at all) instead of sold. And in this irrefutable data, do they ever explain what an 'activation' is? lol.gif

Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?

We are so past the silly argument over defining activation. It's not Android v. iOS anymore on the phone front. It's Samsung v Apple.
post #33 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?


I don't think anyone is refuting that. So no need to make your point twice.

post #34 of 49
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post
Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?

 

I'm refuting your belief that activated = shipped = sold = used.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #35 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'm refuting your belief that activated = shipped = sold = used.

That ship has sailed, my tall friend.
post #36 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

We are so past the silly argument over defining activation. It's not Android v. iOS anymore on the phone front. It's Samsung v Apple.

That is true ... for the moment.

post #37 of 49
Well I'm guessing this not calculating things like the IPad mini I'd be surprised if not just 5% is gained just do to that not including future Models.
post #38 of 49

This difference with Android is that it's achieving volume by selling at price points that vary from zero dollars to Apple-comparable prices on any number of brand manufacturers at retailer outlets that run the gamut from telco stores to mass market grocery stores.  I never really made the argument one would "win" over the other because it became clear that Android was going to end up on a bunch of crap products from no-name manufacturers sold at just about every outlet willing to bring them in hoping to cash in on the "tablet" wave.  When you see Android tablets at Dollar Tree and Dollar General, it doesn't suggest quality product to me.

 

Apple doesn't need or even care to go after the price only market.  It's a race to the bottom where no one wins, not even the consumer, because they end up getting a product that offers a sub-par user experience.  Retailers get fooled into thinking that a $49 tablet that they paid $30 for will fly off the shelf, because, well because it's $49 and the next closest competitor is selling a similar Android tablet for $79 and both, when compared to the iPad at $499+ makes the Android tablets such a better deal.

 

I say, let Android take the crown of being on the most handsets and even tablets, because that really doesn't matter to anyone, especially given where they're generating numbers.  I'll take a quality product with great user experience over price any day.

post #39 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmgregory1 View Post

This difference with Android is that it's achieving volume by selling at price points that vary from zero dollars to Apple-comparable prices on any number of brand manufacturers at retailer outlets that run the gamut from telco stores to mass market grocery stores.  I never really made the argument one would "win" over the other because it became clear that Android was going to end up on a bunch of crap products from no-name manufacturers sold at just about every outlet willing to bring them in hoping to cash in on the "tablet" wave.  When you see Android tablets at Dollar Tree and Dollar General, it doesn't suggest quality product to me.

 

Apple doesn't need or even care to go after the price only market.  It's a race to the bottom where no one wins, not even the consumer, because they end up getting a product that offers a sub-par user experience.  Retailers get fooled into thinking that a $49 tablet that they paid $30 for will fly off the shelf, because, well because it's $49 and the next closest competitor is selling a similar Android tablet for $79 and both, when compared to the iPad at $499+ makes the Android tablets such a better deal.

 

I say, let Android take the crown of being on the most handsets and even tablets, because that really doesn't matter to anyone, especially given where they're generating numbers.  I'll take a quality product with great user experience over price any day.


There is an Android exception that invalidates your argument - Samsung. They are unquestionably making a very good profit from their Galaxy line, which is also the gorilla in Android land.

post #40 of 49
Wow, IDC is able to 'see' the market in 2016! This is just amazing. Oh, I remember that they predicted RIM's demise back in 2008. Hmm, come to think of it, they missed that one. How about Intel and MS sucking wind? Nope, missed those, too.

But now, we can be confident that the IDC crystal ball has de-fogged, and has the inside track on the next four or five iPad generations. Comforting!
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