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Jefferies expects 'iPhone 5S' & new iPad in summer, 'iTV' next fall

post #1 of 75
Thread Starter 
Investment firm Jefferies helped to send Apple stock downward Monday morning when it cut its price target from $900 to $800, but the financial group also predicted that Apple will launch its next iPhone and iPad as early as June, followed by a television set in the fall of 2013.

Monday's research note from analyst Peter Misek cited his checks with industry sources, who indicated Apple is likely to launch a so-called "iPhone 5S" in June or July of 2013. He expects the new iPhone will include "a new super HD camera/screen, a better battery, and NFC."

Misek is less confident on a number of additional "possible updates" to the next iPhone, including an IGZO screen from Sharp for what he called a "Retina+" display," as well as 128 gigabytes of storage, and as many as six new color options in addition to the current black and white offerings.

Jefferies 1


As for a fifth-generation iPad, Misek sees the updated hardware launching in June with an IGZO screen. He expects the new model will be half as thick as the current option, with "significantly" reduced weight.

Fewer details were provided on a potential Apple television set, but Misek said he believes the mythical device will launch in September or October of 2013.

"iTV prototypes are also floating around," Misek wrote. "Gesture and voice control along with new user interface are the main innovations."

Finally, the analyst also spoke of a potential low-cost iPhone, which he said is "not greenlit yet," but could possibly launch in 2013. If a new, less expensive iPhone does debut next year, he sees it launching in June or July with a price point between $200 and $250 without a service contract.

"Our checks indicate a low-cost model would be a retooled iPhone 4 with a scaled-down modem, apps processor, etc.," he wrote. "Foxconn International Holdings already has a supply chain for capacity scaling up to 200-300K units per day."

Jefferies 2


As for the new, lower $800 price target for AAPL stock, Misek believes Apple's iPhone build plans will decelerate from a 50 percent increase in 2013 to 20 percent growth in fiscal 2014. He believes much of this will be due to smartphone saturation in developed markets.

"(Average selling prices) have likely peaked," Misek said. "With smartphone penetration high in developed markets, the future for Apple and the industry is developing markets."
post #2 of 75
so what. does this guy say about Amazon?.... up, up and away?, how can that be?... amazon makes trinkets!.
post #3 of 75

Hey Soli, here come the colors you and I expected for the MIni, 6 to 8 of 'em. That's at least according to the report. 

melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #4 of 75

How can the chart go to 120%? 


"iTV prototypes are also floating around," Misek wrote. "Gesture and voice control along with new user interface are the main innovations."

 

No.

 

A loud clatter of gunk music flooded through the Heart of Gold cabin as Zaphod searched the sub-etha radio wave bands for news of himself. The machine was rather difficult to operate. For years radios had been operated by means of pressing buttons and turning dials; then as the technology became more sophisticated the controls were made touch-sensitive--you merely had to brush the panels with your fingers; now all you had to do was wave your hand in the general direction of the components and hope. It saved a lot of muscular expenditure, of course, but meant that you had to sit infuriatingly still if you wanted to keep listening to the same program.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #5 of 75
I would find it a lot easier to take these folks seriously if they would get the little things right. ITV is a trademark in the UK in the television market that Apple hasn't attempted to use in how many years, why would they not. So stop calling this unicorn horn and dragon poop pipe dream (at this point) an iTV. It makes you look uninformed about the market which isn't really possible since there have been tons of articles about how iTV UK has promises to sue Apple if they try to use the 'mark.

And Apple has set up rather nicely that iPhones will be in the fall after a WWDC preview of the new iOS. That isn't likely to change. The iPad might get a step update at six months but that is more likely to be March-April than June. But it is more likely that they are shifting to a fall only release on those as well. That way all new products launch with the new iOS instead of the iPads coming out with six month old software and getting a fall 'update' that is only software based and might not have the hardware needed for some new feature for another six months.

These sorts of things are what we should be hearing from thoughtful analysts instead of the hit foddering, pulled from their butts, stock toying crap we typically get

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #6 of 75
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post
And Apple has set up rather nicely that iPhones will be in the fall after a WWDC preview of the new iOS. That isn't likely to change. 

 

If we see iOS 7 in the spring, get ready for (idiotic) 6-month cycles.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #7 of 75
iPhone 5s will be the iphone that fix the iPhone 5 bugs.
post #8 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

If we see iOS 7 in the spring, get ready for (idiotic) 6-month cycles.

Nobody said you have to buy every new phone that comes out.

post #9 of 75

Well, at least there isn't mention of an Apple TV for $1500.  That rumor has been circulating and I think it is safe to say that even IF Apple released a HDTV with various additional electronics, i think the likelihood of the price $1500 to be .0000000000001% chance.    Figure it this way,  a straight 27inch monitor with nothing else is $1000.   So if Apple were to add all kinds of functionality, I think it's going to have to cost quite at least $1500 for just a 27inch "smart TV" is there is a lot of functionality to it.  I would suggest not even mentioning any projected price and just it be announced, when/if Apple is going to announce it and not set everyone for a disappointment.  Don't set expectations that can't be met, unless you are the one that is supposed to meet those expectations.  Don't set them for someone else.

post #10 of 75
Originally Posted by Conrail View Post
Nobody said you have to buy every new phone that comes out.

 

Good to know. What does that statement have to do with anything?


Originally Posted by drblank View Post
Figure it this way,  a straight 27inch monitor with nothing else is $1000.   So if Apple were to add all kinds of functionality, I think it's going to have to cost quite at least $1500 for just a 27inch "smart TV" is there is a lot of functionality to it.

 

Monitor ≠ TV. You can get a 60" LED-backlit LCD television for $1,000. You cannot use the Thunderbolt Display as your metric.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #11 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

iPhone 5s will be the iphone that fix the iPhone 5 bugs.

I think it might be for the Fingerprint ID, is my guess.  MAYBE a slightly wider/taller screen for those that want a phone that's 4.5in or larger.  I can see Apple releasing two different sized smartphones to meet people that have different tastes in screen size.  I personally would like one a little bigger 4.5 to 4.6 screen size if they made it.  But my smartphone contract isn't up for another year, so until I need a second phone, I have some time to wait.

post #12 of 75
Misek's predictions here are the most egregious case of fabrication. He "expects" a new super HD camera/screen but is "less confident" about a "Retina " screen. What does that even mean?

iTV prototypes are "floating around". TV sets are not like phones and do not need to be floated around to be tested.

Apple does not have to "retool" iPhone 4 for a low cost model. It is already their low cost model. There is no such thing as an "apps processor".

Man, is this guy ever full of shit. And that's saying a lot considering most analysts are full of it.
post #13 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


Finally, the analyst also spoke of a potential low-cost iPhone, which he said is "not greenlit yet," but could possibly launch in 2013. If a new, less expensive iPhone does debut next year, he sees it launching in June or July with a price point between $200 and $250 without a service contract.

That makes sense.  So basically an iPod Touch that adds phone capabilities for $50-$100 less.  Oh wait- that doesn't make sense.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #14 of 75

Don't feed the analysts! 

 

I do think a 5s will come out around summer, but I don't believe it will be rocking a 4.8" screen like reported on other sites. 

 

 

Quote:
The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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post #15 of 75
Stock manipulation. I think the SEC should investigate these bums when they are proven wrong.
post #16 of 75
I hate people lowering AAPL target price AFTER it dropped a lot or up AAPL target price when AAPL hits new high .

Fxck the analysts !! What u say even a primary school student can say .
post #17 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

If we see iOS 7 in the spring, get ready for (idiotic) 6-month cycles.

Did you wake up with only 1% brain activity?  WWDC is where they announce a new iOS and show off SOME of the features to developers and they start seeding developers with beta copies for development purposes, but it doesn't officially get released until later, so it's not a 6 month cycle.  iOS 6 came out at the end of Sept., it's December, so announcing iOS 7 in terms of to the developers in June would be 9 months after iOS 6 got released, but that's STILL just the developer version.

 

If Apple releases a new model in the spring, the iOS will be a iOS 6.x upgrade, not a iOS 7 upgrade.

post #18 of 75
Originally Posted by emig647 View Post
…a 4.8" screen like reported on other sites. 

 

What idiot said that?


Originally Posted by drblank View Post
Did you wake up with only 1% brain activity?  WWDC is where they announce a new iOS and show off SOME of the features to developers and they start seeding developers with beta copies for development purposes, but it doesn't officially get released until later, so it's not a 6 month cycle.

 

I believe your insult should be directed at you. Please read my post again.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #19 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Hey Soli, here come the colors you and I expected for the MIni, 6 to 8 of 'em. That's at least according to the report. 

I'm thinking this isn't likely for the iPhone 5S as the S has signified internal changes but very minor cosmetic changes. If true we'd likely start seeing case leaks appearing by March.

I also don't think the NFC is accurate if the casing does stay the same. I'll bow to AnandTech to the reasons why this design doesn't lend to NFC being likely:



PS: What's with the comments about Super HD screen and better battery. I see no reason for the PPI or resolution to change and without any details regarding better battery life from more efficient components and/or better battery tech it all sounds like BS to me.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #20 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

iPhone 5s will be the iphone that fix the iPhone 5 bugs.

Which are?

post #21 of 75
This article is a load of speculative crap! It seems all over the place to me, I don't think this guy has a clue. As for Apple's share price, I don't see it returning to the $700 mark any time soon, if ever. If an Apple iTV is ever launched then maybe, but even then only temporarily. But now I'm speculating too! So I'm going to stop...
post #22 of 75
How can anyone with a straight face claim Apple will release a 4.8" phone when we only now got a 4" phone? If Apple was so concerned about the competition, iPhone 5 would've been a much bigger phone.
post #23 of 75

I can't even comprehend the level of horse-shit in these predictions. Its like they combined all the false rumors about the iPhone 5 and moved them to the 5S, which apparently is launching in a few months. Jesus Christ. What pisses me off is that these people actually have jobs spreading this shit, that pay millions no less. 

 

Oh, and love how Apple stock is still tanking, when pretty much every other major tech company is posting terrible news everyday, while all Apple's success metrics keep increasing. Just fabulous. 

post #24 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by haar View Post

so what. does this guy say about Amazon?.... up, up and away?, how can that be?... amazon makes trinkets!.
Well Amazon cut the price of the 8.9" Kindle Fire HD by $50 and it still barely makes the top 10 on Amazon's best seller list. Just more proof that any success the smaller Fire has is because it is cheap. Probably another reason the iPad always shows a larger share of the mobile browsing market. These cheaper tablets are probably impulse buys that get used for a week or two and then sit in the bottom of a drawer somewhere.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1055041-amazon-com-might-be-running-light?source=yahoo
post #25 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

I can't even comprehend the level of horse-shit in these predictions. Its like they combined all the false rumors about the iPhone 5 and moved them to the 5S, which apparently is launching in a few months. Jesus Christ. What pisses me off is that these people actually have jobs spreading this shit, that pay millions no less. 

Oh, and love how Apple stock is still tanking, when pretty much every other major tech company is posting terrible news everyday, while all Apple's success metrics keep increasing. Just fabulous. 
The icing on the cake would've been predicting a touchscreen iMac and MacBook. I mean all the tech blogs tell us these don't suck and are the wave of the future. lol.gif
post #26 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

iPhone 5s will be the iphone that fix the iPhone 5 bugs.

what are the bugs in iPhone 5, since I have not noticed anything with hardware?

post #27 of 75

Man... Apple is hustling these days...  I wonder what got them to get new items out quicker than "usual?"

post #28 of 75

why the heck do we keep seeing these "stories" about some "analyst" guessing what Apple will do next and when? your guess or my guess is as good as theirs, so what?

 

i know, because otherwise there is little to write about at all.

 

as to my guess, i think they are all missing what needs to be done to re-invent the living room. two things: one, a single easy to use UI that runs all the A/V stuff you got plus all that internet stuff, and two, a sound system you never have to fiddle with (a problem no TV can ever fix).

 

so i'd just combine an Apple TV with a very good sound bar with lots of inputs. and use apps for each gadget/service on your iPhone/iPad that launch automatically when you select any input in your overall Apple TV UI. then you just plug that into your TV, mainly using any OEM's TV like a monitor.

 

there are some good apps already like that. TiVo's is nice, i use it by choice when doing anything beyond changing channels, pause, etc. every OEM could readily provide an app for their networked gadgets.

 

all HDTV's these days are quite good. Apple is not going to "make a better TV." it needs to come up with the perfect UI.

post #29 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by koban4max View Post

Man... Apple is hustling these days...  I wonder what got them to get new items out quicker than "usual?"
Besides 4th gen iPad where has this happened?
post #30 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Conrail View Post

Nobody said you have to buy every new phone that comes out.

And most don't.

 

 

TS was noting that Dot Zero OS cycles every 6 months are idiotic.  Not HW cycles, especially if just for 'fixes'.  (antennas, new processors, better cameras, voice recog).  Dot Zero OSes should enable new HW features.  Dot N releases should be new features in SW. DotDot releases are bug fixes.

 

A DotZero release annually is probably just 'aggresive' enough for consumers and developers.  Not too long to go stagnant, but not so often that Developers go crazy keeping up.  And given the HW iOS covers (iPad, iPod, iPhone, and even the AppleTV), and the fact it really is an 'API' for apps to integrate to HW and Cloud capabilities Apples presents, it probably needs a refresh annually.

 

But a 's' release of hardware, which has been typically meaning 'speed' (better processor), I wouldn't try to keep a new DotZero OS in step with it.   I would hope that Apple's roadmap would futureproof the OS for future HW releases, and a DotOne or DotTwo release would enable esoteric HW capabilities within a HW release (like iTunes had to be upgraded every time a new Phone or iPod was released).

 

That said,having 4 phones come out during the lifespan of a 2 year contract subsidy will drive some people crazy.   I'm comfy with every 2 years, but got that 'itch' when the 4 came out (I have a 4s).   I would probably move to an 18month lifecycle given that's the typical 'grace' period, for upgrades at ATT (they'll gladly sell you a new phone to lock you in to 2 more years.)

 

But... Here's to the Crazy Ones!

post #31 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

If we see iOS 7 in the spring, get ready for (idiotic) 6-month cycles.

Idiotic to you but maybe not idiotic for Apple's business.  Here's a good read regarding why Apple may go to 6-month product cycles.

 

http://www.asymco.com/2012/12/06/does-s-stand-for-spring/

post #32 of 75
Originally Posted by Shameer Mulji View Post
Idiotic to you but maybe not idiotic for Apple's business.

 

So why has the "one a year" system worked better than absolutely anything else anyone else has tried?

 

All six of those "reasons" aren't reasons.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #33 of 75

Maybe 1% of this is true.  Maybe.

 

If you want to see the 5s, look at your iPhone 5.  They look the same. MAYBE they'll have NFC*, or some other hardware features - no doubt faster chip, etc. But re: a 4.8" screen, nah.  And if it were true, then it's the beginning of the end, Apple is "just another hardware company." Multiple colors? Come on.  It'll look so cheap.

 

Apple iPanel/iTV?  Maybe.  We'll see.

 

6-9 month cycles?  I have my doubts.  Wonder if Jony has enough time to make the changes he'll no doubt make?

 

These analysts are stupid.  As much as I would like to see some leaked parts and legitimate reveals, they're just trying to justify their "buy" ratings at $700 a few months back.

 

 

 

*NFC not likely in this design, as someone above already pointed out.

post #34 of 75
Quote: Jefferies helped to send Apple stock downward Monday morning when it cut its price target from $900 to $800


The only thing sending the stock price down is profit-taking ahead of tax obligations.
What would you do if you owned thousands of shares and had options for thousands more and faced a greater tax bill if you waited till 2013 to sell? We should all learn something from this.

Prediction: Jan 1, this all turns around.

nuf-said
post #35 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

How can anyone with a straight face claim Apple will release a 4.8" phone when we only now got a 4" phone? If Apple was so concerned about the competition, iPhone 5 would've been a much bigger phone.


Dang you said exactly what I was about to post! I agree with you.....

Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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post #36 of 75

IGZO LCD in 2013.

IGZO OLED in 2014.

 

About a year ago, there were rumors that Sharp and Apple had patented (yay patents!) a new IGZO-based OLED "printing" process.  Higher yield, lower cost.  I wouldn't expect a Retina iPad mini until Sharp's IGZO OLED plant is at full production.

 

Just FYI, IGZO (Indium Gallium Zinc Oxide) is a chemical compound used to make transparent electrical conductors in display panels.  IGZO is a big deal because it is 40 times more conductive than the amorphous Silicon technology used in today's LCD panels.  And it's more transparent.  So it will be possible to make more efficient LCD panels because of better conductivity, that are brighter because of improved transparency.  And the same IGZO technology can be used in OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) display panels, which will be even more power-efficient (and thinner) because they don't need LED backlighting like LCD panels do. 

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post #37 of 75
Quote:

as to my guess, i think they are all missing what needs to be done to re-invent the living room. two things: one, a single easy to use UI that runs all the A/V stuff you got plus all that internet stuff, and two, a sound system you never have to fiddle with (a problem no TV can ever fix).

 

so i'd just combine an Apple TV with a very good sound bar with lots of inputs. and use apps for each gadget/service on your iPhone/iPad that launch automatically when you select any input in your overall Apple TV UI. then you just plug that into your TV, mainly using any OEM's TV like a monitor.

If I may carry this a bit further, I recall Apple having an aversion to cables. I would expect everything to be in the tv set: Apple TV, tuner/cable, a good sized audio amp including an AV type device, multiple HMDI connections, wifi, and good front speakers (I just don't see a separate sound bar as part of the deal. Put that functionality in the TV and reduce the number of boxes). Couple that with a single UI remote.

 

You buy one box, it has two things: TV and Remote. If you have external devices (do you really need them?), connect them to HDMI. At that point, you're good to go. If you really want cable, maybe hook it to TV.

 

I know that if you buy a TV now, you get exacctly that: TV and Remote. But then you bring it home and connect it to an array of other boxes. Throw them out--and their remotes. I have at least five remotes sitting on my living room coffee table now--if we can find them all...

 

I'm not sure about cable. I have an Apple TV and I'm not sure I really need cable anymore. I can spend, say, $30 a month on purchased content and be ahead of my current cable bill.

 

If you really want surround sound, I would expect Apple to sell optional rear (wireless) speakers. If you want a sub, an optional (wireless) Apple Sub-Woofer.

 

Games: expect the TV set to have an enhanced AppleTV that lets you play games from the App Store. Do you really need a console for that?

 

I just don't see the need for an AV receiver in the vast majority of living rooms that would have an Apple TV.

post #38 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by maclancer View Post

iPhone 5s will be the iphone that fix the iPhone 5 bugs.

What "bugs" are you referring to? The ones that don't exist?  I haven't heard of any hardware problems, so what are you talking about?

post #39 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by jm6032 View Post

If I may carry this a bit further, I recall Apple having an aversion to cables. I would expect everything to be in the tv set: Apple TV, tuner/cable, a good sized audio amp including an AV type device, multiple HMDI connections, wifi, and good front speakers (I just don't see a separate sound bar as part of the deal. Put that functionality in the TV and reduce the number of boxes). Couple that with a single UI remote.

 

You buy one box, it has two things: TV and Remote. If you have external devices (do you really need them?), connect them to HDMI. At that point, you're good to go. If you really want cable, maybe hook it to TV.

 

I know that if you buy a TV now, you get exacctly that: TV and Remote. But then you bring it home and connect it to an array of other boxes. Throw them out--and their remotes. I have at least five remotes sitting on my living room coffee table now--if we can find them all...

 

I'm not sure about cable. I have an Apple TV and I'm not sure I really need cable anymore. I can spend, say, $30 a month on purchased content and be ahead of my current cable bill.

 

If you really want surround sound, I would expect Apple to sell optional rear (wireless) speakers. If you want a sub, an optional (wireless) Apple Sub-Woofer.

 

Games: expect the TV set to have an enhanced AppleTV that lets you play games from the App Store. Do you really need a console for that?

 

I just don't see the need for an AV receiver in the vast majority of living rooms that would have an Apple TV.

Apple doesn't do audio, so if it has speakers in it, it will just be plain Jane audio that will only be used by some people that don't have it hooked up to a Soundbar or a REAL home theater system.

 

They have to at least be able to connect to a cable/satellite box with AirPlay to stream from iPad, iPhone, computer, iPod.

 

I can see a DVR a la Tivo capability with POTENTIALLY a large capacity Fusion drive or SSD storage.

 

If they used an A6X or better chip, they could do games, but maybe they can either figure out how to do multiple processors, or they have a new generation A-whatever chip they are working on.  But I see them using at least an A6X or maybe an X86 chip?  It would be nice to make it a full blown Mac, but I think they'll probably go ARM due to cost.

 

When you are talking wireless speakers, I can see AirPlay to a Home Theater processor and/or Soundbar and the Soundbar would hook up to a sub.

post #40 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

If we see iOS 7 in the spring, get ready for (idiotic) 6-month cycles.

 

 

imo they need to random the cycle, neither 1 year or 6 months is good.  Unpredictable is key here so they can stabilize demand.

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