Google's Eric Schmidt says Android 'clearly' winning against Apple in phones - Page 2

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Originally Posted by jay-t 

I strongly disagree. To understand analysts you need at least a PHD. Better yet, two. One in philosophy and one in applied chaos theory.

Math as well, so that you have a firm grasp of imaginary numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GQB 

The reason that the car analogy doesn't hold up well here is that any of the American car companies earn/keep more than BMW or Mercedes while making a (by definition) lower-end product.

A large percentage (+85% ?) of users will accept/be satisfied with mediocrity.

Sorry Eric.

Where the rubber meets the road (every year):

Unfortunately, a lot of that "winning" includes utter garbage that are passed off as phones. 

If the indictor of success is marketshare due to Universal Licensing, whereby any OEM that can slam together a box is allowed to run Android, then Google can KEEP the crown. That sort of "winning" is no place for Apple. 

Hey, Eric, how's that Google TV thing working out for you? You were "Winning!" there too. Remember, we were all going to have Google TV in our living rooms by last summer? And by now, all developers are writing for Android first, too. Oh, wait, none of that happened. I guess this will be the same kind of Winning! 

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee 

- Profits. Not important for the consumer, but very important for the company.

Companies. Apple gets it. Developers also get it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blitz1 

 

I probably misunderstood Jobs when launching the first iPad. Didn't he say (word by word) that the price point made it quite impossible for a competitor to enter the tablet market?

And he was right. The nexus isn't a tablet, it's a "thing" to run phone apps that lags. The surface... well... it's a mystery.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AppleZilla 

McDonalds sells a lot more Happy Meals than Morton's sells steaks.

 

 

 

But yet Morton's isn't making more total profits than McDonalds either (as compared with Apple v Google) :)

It's all in how you define "winning" (whatever that is). By his definition, percentage of the smartphone market, I don't think anyone can argue that he's correct. Obviously, many others would define it by percentage of profits in the smartphone market, and I don't think anyone can argue Apple is winning that aspect. Google is in it for the advertising revenue, Apple is in it for the hardware revenue. Two different strategies and both appear to be quite successful.

One question, if they haven't really monetized Android yet, how are they going to do it in the future?

Eric Schmidt is right about Google winning in marketshare. He clearly has a different definition of winning and the game as Apple does and that is okay.

As long as people keep using Google Search, the ad money will keep on pouring in and Google will keep on subsidising money losing ventures.

Be smart and just try another search engine.

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Originally Posted by igriv 

We were going to have Apple TV too. So?

Who said so?

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Originally Posted by Rot'nApple 

Hey Eric Schmidt, actor Charlie Sheen was "Winning" also, still it didn't stop people from looking at his actions and thinking he was a kook and notice how you don't hear too much about Charlie Sheen anymore, whether on purpose or not!  

 

WINNING!...  

/

/

/

What do the three slashes at the end of your post mean? Just curious.

I will make one prediction for the next iPhone and I hope it is true. Since Apple won't ever likely allow SD cards, storage is becoming an issue. iCloud, Box, and dropbox can help to a degree but people still are finding that 16Gb just isn't cutting it anymore. I predict the 2013 iPhone will see the base model which sells typically for $199 on contract bumped to 32GB, then offer 64GB and 128GB for the upper tier. The Galaxy Note 2 for example can hold a maximum of 96 GB (32 internal and 64 on SD) It also appears future Android models will double that soon. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by gwmac 

As long as Apple has a strong ecosystem in terms of a large number of all the popular apps and tons of accessories there is no reason to worry if Android controls 70% or even 90% of the market. Like others have stated Apple is still making the big $$$. All Apple needs to do is to be considered a viable alternative. That doesn't mean that they can rest on their laurels. I hope to see some big and radical improvements to iOS and the iPhone again. Something that we didn't even know we wanted but can't imagine how we lived without it that Apple is so good at doing. I wonder what goodies are in store for iOS 7.

I'm a big apple fan but this is simply not true. One big reason Apple almost ate it was because it's market share was so low that it couldn't get a critical mass of developers behind it - the intel switch and ability to run windows was a key turning point to allow people to justify purchasing a less developed for OS. iOS has so many apps because it was the first out and had initially had 100% mobile developer support. If it's US market share were to go below ~20% there would be a point where top or mid tier developers would only elect to develop for android and iOS could begin a downward spiral.

Marketshare isn't everything - but you need 50%+ of the key active / informed user base to be strong and sustainable. Apple is not on that path and needs to forgo some short term profits (profits that is is giving away because it doesn't even know what to do with all the $) for long term insurance. I would also recommend they eat humble pie and make a large 2 handed iPhone for those who want them - make a phone to fill all the key market niches. Business is war and you have to fight on all fronts!

Quote:

Originally Posted by igriv 

 What don't you get? Android has a huge market share, which Google is hoping to monetize. You feel iPhone is better? Great! I am sure Schmidt agrees. 

Yet, ironically, they've done a better job of monetizing other companies' OSs than their own. They can hope all they want but, despite Winning!, they don't seem to able to monetize Android. To the contrary, when we factor the Motorola acquisition in, it's a giant money pit.

Steve Job's was a brilliant person.  But even he made a mistakes when it came to Eric Schmidt.  He should have never been on the board.  Hearing a word here and sentence there is all it takes to know what a company is planning on doing.  But Steve trusted him, Eric Schmidt was anti Microsoft, and he thought he had his back.  Very foolish. 

Apple's goal was and is never to sell the most smart phones, it was and is to sell the best.  This they have done very well so far.  Eric Schmidt's goal is to do whatever it takes.  Job's will be remembered and revered.  Eric Schmidt will not be remembered, and when his name might come up, looking through old emails and publications, he will be remembered as a person not to be trusted.  A stealer of trade secrets.  A person that steals others ideas.  To bad we don't have a legal and congressional system that has the guts to fix our patent system so people like Eric Schmidt get what they have coming to them.  For him, I have no respect.  And I further know that it makes no difference to him what I or anyone else thinks of him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by igriv 

 

Interesting, but so what? Once people get used to Android, there is inertia which might cause their next phone (which they DO use as a smartphone) to be android too. I don't know if this will happen, but it is certainly a factor.

This is determined by the satisfaction level.  It is proven by numerous surveys that iPhone has the highest satisfaction level. 

Google can not compare themselves to when M$ was betting Apple, simply because M$ made far more money than Apple did during those times, Not only did M$ sell more OS they also made more money then Apple so that is a win. Today M$ still sell more OS than Apple but one big change which is Apple makes far more more money, Google on the other hand gives it away, and they can not say they make more money on Ad from Android systems. I believe Google said last summer that over 60% of their Mobile ad revenue came from an iOS device not even an android device.

The only metric I an tell that Google is winning in is the number of activation. Activation does not translate in to $, it is a potential for $ but that is about it. How many of the activation is someone dumping an old phone to get a new phone, All of this may not be new users which again Apple seems to be adding lots of new users as well as people upgrading.

When these interviews happen why aren't they asking the hard question like, so you have all these activation, how much money are you making per activation. I would like to see the answer to that. We know Apple is making hundreds of $ ever time someone activated an iOS product not only from the hardware but from itunes, Apple has a much larger reoccurring revenue stream with every Itunes account, Yet again Google gives it away.

Quote:

Originally Posted by igriv 

We were going to have Apple TV too. So?

We do have Apple TV. As a hobby, with no claims about taking over the living room, it's doing much better than Google TV. So...

Quote:

Originally Posted by igriv 

 

Last QUARTER's data! I can't believe they are a whole two months behind the times!

Welcome to the world we live in.

Originally Posted by igriv 
Thank GOD someone has some sense....

I pose my question to him to you, as well.

"Sense", huh. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by igriv 

 

Interesting, but so what? Once people get used to Android, there is inertia which might cause their next phone (which they DO use as a smartphone) to be android too. I don't know if this will happen, but it is certainly a factor.

No, it won't happen, the facts are against it. Most Android users who actually use their phone as smartphones end up regretting their choice and switch to iPhone at their next contract. There is no significant switching in the opposite direction.

Originally Posted by igriv 
So, in TEN YEARS MSFT will be down to mere 50% marketshare?

I dunno. I don't recall saying that or even projecting it. I did say they've lost a large fraction of it already, and that isn't looking to be turning around at any time. Therefore they should certainly care more than the "not at all" posed by him (and agreed with by you).

Quote:

Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user 

I'm a big apple fan but this is simply not true. One big reason Apple almost ate it was because it's market share was so low that it couldn't get a critical mass of developers behind it - the intel switch and ability to run windows was a key turning point to allow people to justify purchasing a less developed for OS. iOS has so many apps because it was the first out and had initially had 100% mobile developer support. If it's US market share were to go below ~20% there would be a point where top or mid tier developers would only elect to develop for android and iOS could begin a downward spiral.

 

Marketshare isn't everything - but you need 50%+ of the key active / informed user base to be strong and sustainable. Apple is not on that path and needs to forgo some short term profits (profits that is is giving away because it doesn't even know what to do with all the $) for long term insurance. I would also recommend they eat humble pie and make a large 2 handed iPhone for those who want them - make a phone to fill all the key market niches. Business is war and you have to fight on all fronts!

If they need over 50% they are already failing...The percentage isn't as vital as how big the pie is and how their users interact with their phones. A big portion of the value iOS provides is that the users actually are willing to pay for apps and use them for more things. If they maintain that and maintain a large enough user base (regardless of percentage) developers will still want to develop for them. With computers it lost viability because it was a small number of actual units making the profitability not worth the effort.

Quote:

Originally Posted by igriv 

 

What is your source?

Any customer satisfaction survey and everyone I know who's ever bought an Android phone. Android isn't winning, and neither are you.

Re: "This is of the scale of 20 years ago — Microsoft versus Apple. We're winning that war pretty clearly now."

Except for the fragmentation.  20 years ago, Microsoft shipped Windows 3.1 to everyone: same binary on all Wintel PCs.  Android, on the other hand, is broken up into many different versions, the most popular of which is still Gingerbread 2.3, dating back to 2010.  It's the largest fragment partly because Amazon forked their own version for use on the Kindle Fire.  And, unfortunately for Google, Amazon removed Google's "profit layer."

Another reason for Android's overall market share is the no-name domestic Chinese phone market.  Millions of Android activations in China are from oddball forks of Android with Google's "profit layer" stripped out.  Just like Amazon's fork: no connection to Google Play.  We all know how well Google has done in China in the past.  They'll do no better with Android.

Sources:

Usage share of Android versions: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Usage_share_of_Android_versions

Android's China Problem:

http://paidcontent.org/2011/12/08/419-androids-china-problem-schmidt-struggles-to-keeps-apps-in-his-market/

AppleInsider readers: bookmark the above URLs so you can shoot down Android market-share-trolls in the future.

How much are u earning , Google? How much is Apple earning? GOOGLE, listen, u aren't EVEN earning earning 1/4 of what Apple earns. With your BIG market share , shame u!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Constable Odo 

Wall Street believes Android is winning and winning big over Apple.  Google's P/E is 21, Apple's P/E is 12.  Google's share price is $695, Apple's share price is $535.  To Apple shareholders, it would certainly appear as though Google is basically kicking the crap out of Apple and Android is on the verge of putting Apple and iOS out of business.  It would also appear as though the average investor would rather spend close to $700 a share on Google stock rather than spend $540 on Apple stock because they obviously think that Google has more upside than Apple.  Only time will tell if this appearance holds up.

Last 5 years (2008 recession included):

Where is Google's upside? They've lost 2% over the past 5 years. Apple has gained 179% with almost 3 times as many shares outstanding (obviously because they've been around longer) but still with more earnings per share.

Yes, since Android's release GOOG's stock has gone up 50+%. Through that same period AAPL's stock has increased 280+%. What war are we talking about here?

P/E is not even a tell-all. Amazon's P/E is over 3,000% (not a misprint). AMZN has increased over the past 5 years at the same rate as Apple but they have no earnings to show for it. And they sell their devices at a loss.

AAPL makes money more ways than Google. Google needs your info to make money off it. That's it. Everything they produce -- whether OS (Android/Chrome), services (Gmail/News/Shopping/Youtube), or with their tip-toeing into hardware (Nexus/Chromebook) -- is so they can monetize the information you provide. So if their war was to have more devices so they can have more user information they have won it. Facebook's got more users, though, and Apple doesn't make money that way. If their war was to make more money as a company then that's a war that they are trailing in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SockRolid 

Re: "This is of the scale of 20 years ago — Microsoft versus Apple. We're winning that war pretty clearly now."

 

Except for the fragmentation.  20 years ago, Microsoft shipped Windows 3.1 to everyone: same binary on all Wintel PCs.  Android, on the other hand, is broken up into many different versions, the most popular of which is still Gingerbread 2.3, dating back to 2010.  It's the largest fragment partly because Amazon forked their own version for use on the Kindle Fire.  And, unfortunately for Google, Amazon removed Google's "profit layer."

 

Another reason for Android's overall market share is the no-name domestic Chinese phone market.  Millions of Android activations in China are from oddball forks of Android with Google's "profit layer" stripped out.  Just like Amazon's fork: no connection to Google Play.  We all know how well Google has done in China in the past.  They'll do no better with Android.

 

Sources:

 

Usage share of Android versions: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Usage_share_of_Android_versions

 

Android's China Problem:

http://paidcontent.org/2011/12/08/419-androids-china-problem-schmidt-struggles-to-keeps-apps-in-his-market/

 

AppleInsider readers: bookmark the above URLs so you can shoot down Android market-share-trolls in the future.

The Android forks don't count in Android activation reports AFAIK, unless they offer Google services. For instance the Amazon tablets aren't counted as they don't have any licensing agreement with Google and thus no Google Play, Google Maps nor any other Google service.

Who knows for certain on every model from every Chinese knock-off. Perhaps they've figured out how to incorporate those without Google's blessing too. Of course if they did all the better for Google I suppose.

Perhaps Eric missed this chart the other day... Looks like Apple is 'clearly' winning...

Quote:

Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user 

I'm a big apple fan but this is simply not true. One big reason Apple almost ate it was because it's market share was so low that it couldn't get a critical mass of developers behind it - the intel switch and ability to run windows was a key turning point to allow people to justify purchasing a less developed for OS. iOS has so many apps because it was the first out and had initially had 100% mobile developer support. If it's US market share were to go below ~20% there would be a point where top or mid tier developers would only elect to develop for android and iOS could begin a downward spiral.

 

Marketshare isn't everything - but you need 50%+ of the key active / informed user base to be strong and sustainable. Apple is not on that path and needs to forgo some short term profits (profits that is is giving away because it doesn't even know what to do with all the $) for long term insurance. I would also recommend they eat humble pie and make a large 2 handed iPhone for those who want them - make a phone to fill all the key market niches. Business is war and you have to fight on all fronts!

This so much wrong about this post, I don't know where to start. one thing...the iPhone developer momentum was and is so great because developers get paid, get supported, and have an incredibly easy-to-use iOS SDK. That last part, about the SDK, is very often overlooked as a key to the success of iPhone/iPad and iOS.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jr_b 

I know several people that have switched from regular mobile phones or Blackberry's to Android. All of them have now switched to the iPhone.
Google should strive to be like Apple when it comes to Android phones.

They tried making their own phone and it spectacularly bombed so they killed it.