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More than half of US smartphone shoppers plan to buy Apple's iPhone 5

post #1 of 63
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A new survey of more than 800 U.S .consumers found that more than half of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next three months say they will buy Apple's new iPhone 5.

Piper Jaffray


In the poll conducted by Piper Jaffray, 53.3 percent of consumers said they expect to buy an iPhone 5 in the near future. That's about consistent with 54.9 percent who chose the iPhone 5 in October, and still a bit higher than 47.7 percent who said they'd choose Apple in September.

"We believe this is a positive that demonstrates the majority of U.S. consumers want an iPhone 5 even following the launch craze, and despite the Maps issues that have been widely noted," analyst Gene Munster said.

The latest survey found that while more than half of U.S. customers planning to buy a smartphone will choose Apple's iPhone 5, 35.3 percent of respondents said they will choose a device that runs Google's Android platform.

As for the remaining smartphone players, 6.5 percent of those polled in the latest December survey said they are planning to buy a Windows Phone in the near future, while 4.9 percent are eyeing a new BlackBerry.

iPhones


Piper Jaffray also conducted an analysis of what users are talking about on the social networking site Twitter. The investment research firm conducted a search for tweets that contain the keyword iPhone in addition to related words like "bought," "shipped" or "purchased."

Based on its searches, Piper Jaffray believes that purchase trends for the iPhone 5 are ahead of those for the iPhone 4S. The company's data found that about 2.5 months after launch, the demand index for the iPhone 5 is up between 30 and 40 percent over the iPhone 4S, based on Twitter posts.
post #2 of 63

Planning isn't doing.

 

Microsoft planned to make an iPad killer. We all know how well that worked.

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post #3 of 63
All those Americans are AT RISK of getting lost in the Australian desert with no food or water or cellular service! If only they bought a Sammy, they'd still be alive today!

/s

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post #4 of 63
Does this contradicts Eric Schmidt winning plea?
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post #5 of 63
OK.

But what is the number of people out of the 800 asked, that planned on buying a phone in the next 3 months?
post #6 of 63
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post
Does this contradicts Eric Schmidt winning plea?

 

No matter how many iPhones are really sold, Google can just pretend their "activation" numbers are higher.

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post #7 of 63

The table would be more interesting if the demographics were added. i.e. What cities, age of consumers, etc.

post #8 of 63
They are following the lead of Samsung's chief strategy officer, who uses an iMac, iPhone and iPad at home due to the superior ecosystem.
post #9 of 63

the real WTF: the other gainer was blackberry.

post #10 of 63

800 customers isn't really much compared to the millions of customers out there. 

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post #11 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

800 customers isn't really much compared to the millions of customers out there. 

Quickly look up how statistical testing works then come back and edit that post

post #12 of 63
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post
A new survey of more than 800 U.S .consumers found that more than half of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next three months say they will buy Apple's new iPhone 5.

 

That falls right in line with iPhone user share numbers on AT&T and Verizon.

Well, OK, actually iPhone accounts for 77% of AT&T's smartphone sales, and 46% of AT&T's smartphone sales.

But you get the idea.

 

Sources:

 

http://www.imore.com/att-announces-q3-2012-results-47-million-iphones-activated

 

http://www.androidauthority.com/strong-iphone-5-sales-revealed-verizon-q3-2012-earnings-disclosures-123829/

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post #13 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Planning isn't doing.

 

Microsoft planned to make an iPad killer. We all know how well that worked.

 

I agree. Surveys are prone to inaccuracies due to the sample size, questions asked and bias of the interviewer, in addition to potentially poorly drawn conclusions.

 

What people actually do is much more important. Sitting outside an Apple store every day for a week would be more informative.

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post #14 of 63
Originally Posted by joelsalt View Post
Quickly look up how statistical testing works then come back and edit that post

 

But where is the line drawn? You'd consider a study of 10 people valid?

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #15 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

All those Americans are AT RISK of getting lost in the Australian desert with no food or water or cellular service! If only they bought a Sammy, they'd still be alive today!
/s


I'm not sure about that..... Samsung would just end up sending their users the opposite direction on one-way streets, ultimately leading to their death.

So in a sense, Apple's Maps is actually safer to use.

post #16 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by bleh1234 View Post

The table would be more interesting if the demographics were added. i.e. What cities, age of consumers, etc.

That really wouldn't be useful.

What WOULD be useful is if they explained how the sample was selected and gave us some indication of whether it's representative of phone buyers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

800 customers isn't really much compared to the millions of customers out there. 

Wrong. There's nothing wrong with the sample size. That large of a sample would give an error margin of about 3.5-4%. As long as the observation is greater than the error margin and if the sample is representative, they can make a claim.

The problem is not the sample size, but rather the question of whether it is representative of the phone buying population as a whole. That question is much more problematic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

But where is the line drawn? You'd consider a study of 10 people valid?

Sure. Any sample size is valid if the sample is random and representative. A small sample size does not make the results invalid, it merely increases the error margin. (it also depends on confidence level, but we'll leave that out)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

Of course, for a sample size of 10 and assuming a standard 95% confidence interval, the error would be +/- 31%, so it wouldn't be a very useful result in most cases, but it isn't automatically invalid.
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post #17 of 63
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post
…the error would be +/- 31%, so it wouldn't be a very useful result in most cases, but it isn't automatically invalid.

 

That's roughly Android's lead over iOS. Talk about not being useful. 

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post #18 of 63
'More than half of US smartphone shoppers plan to buy Apple's iPhone 5"
LOL! Of course they will. There, there now. *pat *pat
post #19 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

That's roughly Android's lead over iOS. Talk about not being useful. 

Of course. But no one in their right mind uses a sample size of 10.

I was simply commenting on your implication that a sample automatically became invalid if it was very small.
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post #20 of 63

we get one of these ever year - iPhone was also going to take over Verizon.

 

anyway, they should all go to BestBuy seeing how they selling iPhone 5 for 150 dollars... Never seen an iPhone discounted so early.

post #21 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

No matter how many iPhones are really sold, Google can just pretend their "activation" numbers are higher.

 

I'll state the obvious: Something doesn't add up.

 

At the end of June, they said 1M activations per day, with 400M devices activated. Now, it's Dec, so take July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, 5 months total, 30 days per month, which should mean they're at 550M. That's being 'conservative' with their own numbers, since there are more than 30 days in Jul, Aug, and Oct, and the rate of activations has increased according to them. They've recently stated 500M total at 1.3M per day. Are they just ignoring the chance to tout 50M+ more in total?

post #22 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

we get one of these ever year - iPhone was also going to take over Verizon.

 

anyway, they should all go to BestBuy seeing how they selling iPhone 5 for 150 dollars... Never seen an iPhone discounted so early.

They will be over 50% of verizon's sales this quarter. That's not great?

post #23 of 63
I said it long ago:

There must be a new category* created, because simply stating smartphone is far too broad a definition.

Considering that an iPhone 3 can still beat many of the new phones using Android, that are considered smart even though they should be what we used to call "feature phones". The features are now just based on Android, instead of the hodge-podge phone OSes of yesteryear.

* I also have suggested this long ago in regards to tablets as well. I just received an email ad for a "super tablet" for only Euro 79.95 ($105.-). There are many of these landfill objects being pushed out here in Europe for even less. Tablet in name only AFAIC.
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post #24 of 63
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post
we get one of these ever year - iPhone was also going to take over Verizon.

 

I love how three phones from one company having 50% of sales "isn't" taking over.

 

anyway, they should all go to BestBuy seeing how they selling iPhone 5 for 150 dollars... Never seen an iPhone discounted so early.

 

I'm sorry, your point is what, exactly? It's Best Buy running a sale because they're bleeding numbers. The Galaxy S3 is also being run, but you can't say we've never seen an Android phone discounted so early because the S3 is already at the end of its lifespan.

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post #25 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

I said it long ago:
There must be a new category* created, because simply stating smartphone is far too broad a definition.
Considering that an iPhone 3 can still beat many of the new phones using Android, that are considered smart even though they should be what we used to call "feature phones". The features are now just based on Android, instead of the hodge-podge phone OSes of yesteryear.
* I also have suggested this long ago in regards to tablets as well. I just received an email ad for a "super tablet" for only Euro 79.95 ($105.-). There are many of these landfill objects being pushed out here in Europe for even less. Tablet in name only AFAIC.

 

This should be a sticky.

post #26 of 63

good....now many people will be stuck with 5 and not 5s..

post #27 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

the real WTF: the other gainer was blackberry.

 

You know I thought the same thing?  And then I remembered talking with a co-worker the other day, she told me she's leaving iPhone for BB10 when it's out.

 

To each his or her own I guess.

post #28 of 63
This means nothing. I remember last year we had similar stats for the iPhone 4s. At some point between this survey and the store the people are not buying iPhones.

EDIT: TBH I think this survey really shows how much influence the store employees have as to what you buy. 50+% people say they will buy an iphone, 50+% do not buy the iphone. I think that influence comes from the employees at the store.
post #29 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by robflip71 View Post

I bought an iPhone 5 and had to return it...purchased with a dead pixel...shouldn't QA have caught that???  Anyways, got a 4s for $50 from Best Buy...much happier now...battery seems to last longer.

 

A dead pixel showed up on mine after a few weeks.  And then before I could take it back, I dropped the phone (no case that day) and chipped 2 corners.  3 days later I walked into the Apple store and walked out 15 minutes later with a brand new iPhone.  Love my iPhone 5, battery is great too.

post #30 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That really wouldn't be useful.
What WOULD be useful is if they explained how the sample was selected and gave us some indication of whether it's representative of phone buyers.
Wrong. There's nothing wrong with the sample size. That large of a sample would give an error margin of about 3.5-4%. As long as the observation is greater than the error margin and if the sample is representative, they can make a claim.
The problem is not the sample size, but rather the question of whether it is representative of the phone buying population as a whole. That question is much more problematic.
Sure. Any sample size is valid if the sample is random and representative. A small sample size does not make the results invalid, it merely increases the error margin. (it also depends on confidence level, but we'll leave that out)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
Of course, for a sample size of 10 and assuming a standard 95% confidence interval, the error would be +/- 31%, so it wouldn't be a very useful result in most cases, but it isn't automatically invalid.

 

Ah, a kindred soul (stats guy here).

 

Spot on comments, too.  I'd love to know how they select their samples.  On Black Friday he stood in a store and counted the number of items purchased for a few hours.  1hmm.gif  One store, at least from the way the article read.  These analysts...

post #31 of 63
But the survey is from Gene Munster so it's invalid, right? I mean we all know he's an Apple fanboy.
/s
post #32 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


That really wouldn't be useful.
What WOULD be useful is if they explained how the sample was selected and gave us some indication of whether it's representative of phone buyers.
Wrong. There's nothing wrong with the sample size. That large of a sample would give an error margin of about 3.5-4%. As long as the observation is greater than the error margin and if the sample is representative, they can make a claim.
The problem is not the sample size, but rather the question of whether it is representative of the phone buying population as a whole. That question is much more problematic.
Sure. Any sample size is valid if the sample is random and representative. A small sample size does not make the results invalid, it merely increases the error margin. (it also depends on confidence level, but we'll leave that out)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
Of course, for a sample size of 10 and assuming a standard 95% confidence interval, the error would be +/- 31%, so it wouldn't be a very useful result in most cases, but it isn't automatically invalid.

I suspect if you stand in Grand Central Station and get 800 results, then do the same in downtown Wichita and again near the sponge docks in Tarpon Springs the results might be different even tho the sample size is the same. Where was this survey done anyway and what was the actual question asked?

 

With that said I personally have little doubt that most who plan on buying a smartphone in the near future here in the US might think they intend to get an iPhone.

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post #33 of 63
Wait a minute... They didn't say HOW MANY people out of the 800 were planning to buy a phone. They just said that out of 800 people, some undisclosed number of people were planning to buy a phone, And just over half of THOSE people were thinking of an iPhone.
post #34 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I agree. Surveys are prone to inaccuracies due to the sample size, questions asked and bias of the interviewer, in addition to potentially poorly drawn conclusions.

What people actually do is much more important. Sitting outside an Apple store every day for a week would be more informative.

And what do you think people going into a Apple store are going to say?
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post #35 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


And what do you think people going into a Apple store are going to say?

"Where are the restrooms?"

post #36 of 63
Who cares about Google. How much does Apple make in a quarter and year versus Google? I'll take the profits thank you. Android = No Profit. iOS = Most profitable company ever in existence. iPhone alone makes far more in profit than ALL Microsoft products combined!

The doom and gloom on Wall Street is backward justification. Stock goes down (randomly) so you have to try and explain why.
post #37 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I suspect if you stand in Grand Central Station and get 800 results, then do the same in downtown Wichita and again near the sponge docks in Tarpon Springs the results might be different even tho the sample size is the same. Where was this survey done anyway and what was the actual question asked?

 

With that said I personally have little doubt that most who plan on buying a smartphone in the near future here in the US might think they intend to get an iPhone.


Just like the survey reported on here earlier this year that an insanely high percentage high school students surveyed were getting iPhones. Well....I asked my daughter who is in high school and she's thinks the survey is wrong. Depending on where you are. We are not in the richest area in the country and a lot of people can't afford family plans with AT&T. They are scratching by with Android for T-Mobile. My sister's family the same way. Not everyone has a lot of disposable income, NOR do they have nicely discounted corporate plans.

post #38 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I suspect if you stand in Grand Central Station and get 800 results, then do the same in downtown Wichita and again near the sponge docks in Tarpon Springs the results might be different even tho the sample size is the same. Where was this survey done anyway and what was the actual question asked?

With that said I personally have little doubt that most who plan on buying a smartphone in the near future here in the US might think they intend to get an iPhone.

Of course. That's why I mentioned two or three times that the sample needs to be representative for the results to be meaningful - no matter how large the sample.
Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

Wait a minute... They didn't say HOW MANY people out of the 800 were planning to buy a phone. They just said that out of 800 people, some undisclosed number of people were planning to buy a phone, And just over half of THOSE people were thinking of an iPhone.

Not true. They said that 53.3% were planning to buy a phone in the near future. Of that number, just over half expected to buy iPhones.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

the real WTF: the other gainer was blackberry.

No, it wasn't. For a sample of this size, the error is +/- 3-4%. The two Blackberry numbers are indistinguishable. (In fact, if you use only the number who said they're planning to buy a phone soon, the error margin is even higher.
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post #39 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by robflip71 View Post

I bought an iPhone 5 and had to return it...purchased with a dead pixel...shouldn't QA have caught that???  Anyways, got a 4s for $50 from Best Buy...much happier now...battery seems to last longer.

 

So you really didn't want an iPhone 5 anyway. Why else would you return it to downgrade to a 4S?

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GOA

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post #40 of 63
Originally Posted by robflip71 View Post
To me you are only getting a slightly bigger screen for $100 more...

 

Well, that's totally wrong.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
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