More than half of US smartphone shoppers plan to buy Apple's iPhone 5 - Page 2

Interesting (and makes sense) that Apple is dominant in the US. But Android has more presence in certain parts of Europe and Asia. I wonder if there is a discernible pattern. Does it have to do with the number of Apple stores in a certain country? Or # of carriers? Local laws?

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Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers 

the real WTF: the other gainer was blackberry.

There is a portion of consumers that buy a touch tone phone only because dial phones are not made any more... 

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Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

But where is the line drawn? You'd consider a study of 10 people valid?

As the guy said, "Quickly look up how statistical testing works then come back and edit that post."

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Originally Posted by ankleskater 

Interesting (and makes sense) that Apple is dominant in the US. But Android has more presence in certain parts of Europe and Asia. I wonder if there is a discernible pattern. Does it have to do with the number of Apple stores in a certain country? Or # of carriers? Local laws?

Apple still has 0 presence (ads, stores, etc) in most countries.

Most People don't even know what a mac is, despite 30% laptop sales on countries like the US, etc.

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Originally Posted by pedromartins 

Apple still has 0 presence (ads, stores, etc) in most countries.

 

Most People don't even know what a mac is, despite 30% laptop sales on countries like the US, etc.

But does Android have a strong presence in those Apple-ignorant nations? After all, if iPhone dominates the US, Android has to make it up elsewhere to have the numbers they do.

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Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

Planning isn't doing.

 

Microsoft planned to make an iPad killer. We all know how well that worked.

A casual reading of the article points out that the 53.% of consumers that said they PLANNED to buy an iPhone 5 in the near future was about consistent with 54.9 percent who DID BUY the iPhone 5 in October, and still a bit higher than 47.7 percent who said they'd choose Apple in September.

So, the story blows you little fantasy ship out of the water...

As for Microsnot... they live on a different planet then their customers. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by ankleskater 

But does Android have a strong presence in those Apple-ignorant nations? After all, if iPhone dominates the US, Android has to make it up elsewhere to have the numbers they do.

If Eric Smidt's activation numbers could be proven to be true, every Chinaman, Bedouin, Eskimo, and Bushman is carrying more then three or four Android devices...

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Originally Posted by ankleskater 

But does Android have a strong presence in those Apple-ignorant nations? After all, if iPhone dominates the US, Android has to make it up elsewhere to have the numbers they do.

Yes, very strong.

Everyone seems to love android, because there's no option until the highend. Android is the savior from the nokia/motorola feature phones. Samsung is everywhere... Football shirts, tv ads, ads in every single town and space available, etc. Devices like galaxy Ace (and down...) are kings. There's 0 stuff about iOS or Macs on TV/carriers/outdoor ads.

They only care about Android. 

On these circumstances, the fact that Apple is the Leader on profits/quality/hardware/any decent metric with differences growing, is just phenomenal. I truly admire Apple.

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Originally Posted by SpamSandwich 

 

I agree. Surveys are prone to inaccuracies due to the sample size, questions asked and bias of the interviewer, in addition to potentially poorly drawn conclusions.

 

What people actually do is much more important. Sitting outside an Apple store every day for a week would be more informative.

Since you don't understand statistics, YOU make "potentially poorly drawn conclusions."

Besides, once you fiddle with your population source, you create conditional data. For example, I live in the second largest metro area in my state. We have multiple universities and the city is also the state capital... we do not have an Apple store. Your population data would eliminate this kind of data and thus be in error for the country at large.

Originally Posted by Macky the Macky 
A casual reading of the article points out that the 53.% of consumers that said they PLANNED to buy an iPhone 5 in the near future was about consistent with 54.9 percent who DID BUY the iPhone 5 in October, and still a bit higher than 47.7 percent who said they'd choose Apple in September.

Hey, that's good to know! My point remains valid, but if your numbers are right that's a great new point that we can hold over the Anti-Apple Brigade's heads.

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Originally Posted by isaidso 
Wait a minute... They didn't say HOW MANY people out of the 800 were planning to buy a phone. They just said that out of 800 people, some undisclosed number of people were planning to buy a phone, And just over half of THOSE people were thinking of an iPhone.

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Originally Posted by jragosta  

Not true. They said that 53.3% were planning to buy a phone in the near future. Of that number, just over half expected to buy iPhones

Reread.

"more than 800 U.S .consumers found that more than half of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next three months say they will buy Apple's new iPhone 5."

It does not say how many (X) of the +800 were planning on buying a smartphone.

Just that more than half (53.3%) of X were going to buy an iPhone 5.

Likely they simply tossed out those that said they were not going to get a smartphone. "Thanks, but you don't fit our survey market".

Actually, as AI often does, it muddies the waters.

"In the poll conducted by Piper Jaffray, 53.3 percent of consumers said they expect to buy an iPhone 5 in the near future."

Is this 53.3% of everyone they polled or (more likely) only those which stated they were going to get a smartphone?

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Originally Posted by SockRolid 

That falls right in line with iPhone user share numbers on AT&T and Verizon.

Well, OK, actually iPhone accounts for 77% of AT&T's smartphone sales, and 46% of AT&T's(*) smartphone sales.

But you get the idea.

(*) I think you meant Verizon's.

Neither percentage is correct, of course, because dividing iPhones activated by total smartphones sold is math that's using different units.

The carriers only report number of iPhones ACTIVATED, not sold.  The ACTIVATED figure includes old iPhones that were either sold or handed down to family members and activated for the second or more time in their life. 

An estimate published by AI  last January was that 11% of iPhone activations during the 4S introduction were previously owned.  (When a really new model comes out every two years (e.g. iPhone 3G,4,5), the number can reportedly jump as high as 17%, as people shed their old model.)

So, if we take just new iPhones (of all models) activated on AT&T, it's more like 64% - 69% of all the smartphones they sold.  Still an excellent percentage, of course, but more accurate than the often misreported 77%.

Word from Walmart today that they're dropping the price of the iPhone 5 to a rock-bottom $127. The 4S is almost tantamount to free with the price falling to $47. The 16GB wi-fi iPad 4th gen also gets a price cut down to $399.

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Originally Posted by sr2012 

My post disappeared?
Anyway, again, briefly:
GLOBALLY ANDROID 68.8%, iPHONE 18.8%
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/android-extends-global-smartphone-lead-20121205-2au9n.html
Please stop these fantasies of iPhone still holding on.

So 3 phone models (iPhone) have sales of almost 1/3 as many as +100 different phone models (Android) and that is poor?

And most iPhones less than 4 generations old are still in use.

If anyone is using an Android more than a year old.. Wait, they aren't.

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Originally Posted by Chris_CA 

So 3 phone models (iPhone) have sales of almost 1/3 as many as +100 different phone models (Android) and that is poor?

It's closer to 1/4 as many sales.   And no, that's not poor overall.

However, it's half as many as Samsung alone sells.

Reference for the first comment?  Certainly the second comment about Android is false.

As for the iPhone, at least in the US most (60+%) sales are to previous owners upgrading, and more than 80% of their old devices are never activated again.

That means that for every two iPhones sold in the US, one is put into a drawer, is lost or broken, or for some other reason is no longer in use  So if AT&T sells 20 million new iPhones, at least 10 million old ones disappear from use.

No doubt Android's disposal rate is much higher than that, due to likely fewer resales.  Will have to research some numbers to see how much more.

Not that any of this should matter that much.  They're all selling well enough to stick around for a while, and that's all that counts.  Some people prefer to own something that many people own; others prefer to simply get what they like.

Originally Posted by Chris_CA 
If anyone is using an Android more than a year old.. Wait, they aren't.

Originally Posted by KDarling 

As for the iPhone, at least in the US most (60+%) sales are to previous owners upgrading, and more than 80% of their old devices are never activated again.

*citations needed.

"The majority of US iPhone 5 sales, 62%, have come from existing Apple owners upgrading to the new device" - Kantar, Soaring iPhone 5 sales in US knock Android into second place

Similar upgrade numbers have been reported since the iPhone 3G came out.  IPhone user retention is quite often noted.  But then, you should know that from being around iPhone news all the time.

As for the number of old phones that are (re)activated, we just went over that the other day in another thread.  To refresh your memory, AI reported last January that "11 percent of iPhone activations in the test period were previously-used handsets".

If 60% of sales are to people upgrading their phone, but less than 20% of activations are to used phones, then that means over 80% (actually almost 90%, but I was being nice) of those 60% are not reactivated = over 50% cease to be used.

Anecdotically, that number feels right as well.  About half the longterm iPhone owners I can think of, handed their old phone down or sold it.  The other half just put their old one in a drawer.