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Apple's iPad mini already on pace to outsell Retina iPad

post #1 of 237
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The iPad mini is an instant smash hit, set to quickly eclipse the full-size iPad with sales as high as 12 million units in its first quarter, according to a new report.

Apple originally expected to sell 6 million iPad minis over the holidays, but has doubled its orders with display panel makers to more than 12 million, NPD DisplaySearch analyst David Hsieh said to CNet. Demand for the iPad mini is so strong that's selling better than the new fourth-generation iPad, he said.

"It seems people especially like the size," Hsieh said. He expects Apple will adjust its product portfolio next year to accommodate for strong demand for the iPad mini.

Currently, display panels for the 7.9-inch iPad are being built by AU Optronics and LG Display. But if sales reach 50 million units, Hsieh said Apple will need to find other panel suppliers to meet demand.

iPad mini


The comments from NPD corroborate what analyst Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee said earlier this week, when he indicated that sales of the iPad mini have been cannibalizing those of larger 9.7-inch iPad. Wu said that sales of the full-size iPad have been slower than expected, while iPad mini demand has been greater than Apple anticipated.

Overwhelming demand and reported production issues continue to be an issue for Apple with only a week and a half left until Christmas. Apple's online store advertises that iPad mini purchases are available to ship in one week, indicating that supply has not yet caught up with demand.

The company has not disclosed sales of the iPad mini specifically, but announced that total sales over the launch weekend for the mini and the fourth-generation iPad reached 3 million units.
post #2 of 237
Everyone stay out of the way while TS' head explodes.
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post #3 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple originally expected to sell 6 million iPad minis over the holidays

I think Apple hasn't yet uite grasped the fact how succesful they hav become. 6M? They ought to know it would be more than that. First iPad? The figured they'd sell1M (first batch? Can't recall)
Quote:
Demand for the iPad mini is so strong that's selling better than the new fourth-generation iPad, he said.

NSS (2nd S = Sherlock) Why is he surprised? That was a new plug and 1.2MP FT camera and GPU boost, no? Not a new FF.
Quote:
"It seems people especial like the size," Hsieh said.

I give up
Quote:
The comments from NPD corroborate what analyst Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee said earlier this week, when he indicated that sales of the iPad mini have been cannibalizing those of larger 9.7-inch iPad. Wu said that sales of the full-size iPad have been slower than expected, while iPad mini demand has been greater than Apple anticipated.

Yeah, so in total they are selling more than before the introduction of the smaller FF. Go figure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Everyone stay out of the way while TS' head explodes.

Why would he? He likes Apple and I think he'll be glad to see Apple sell so many. Impossible to tell how this stacks up to the competition, as their Sales numbers are quite difficult to find. And if not found, don't expect any competing CEO to tell us.
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post #4 of 237
I guess this sucks for the other tablet makers. There wasn't a tablet market until the iPad. There wasn't a 7" tablet market until the mini. Good luck with your razor thin margins, android makers. Meanwhile Apple stock drops because analysts likes manipulating the stock price.
post #5 of 237
So will they change the resolution and CPU next generation? Why pass on updating something this hot. But on the other hand how to update a problematic display size?

Double it? Elements far too small. Any other increase? Now we have three sizes.

Something about a rock and a hard place.

...not that every other manufacturer would kill for such "problems"!
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post #6 of 237

HUH...

 

Perhaps a smaller iPad was the "perfect size" all along.

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post #7 of 237
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post
Why would he? He likes Apple and I think he'll be glad to see Apple sell so many.

 

I knew the small one would sell better than the big one if they made one. Doesn't mean making one was a good idea. lol.gif

 

A 40" touchscreen computer will sell better than either of these models. The key is the interface.

 

I'd really like a 15" iPad-equivalent for portable stuff, too. Do I think that would sell as well as the 8"? I think it would sell better than the 10".

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post #8 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Everyone stay out of the way while TS' head explodes.

 

You beat me to it.

 

Not that anyone cares about my personal decisions, but it will be tough deciding which I'm going to upgrade to next spring/whenever - iPad mini or iPad?  Assuming both have retina, I may opt for the mini and then get a 13" MBA to mix it up.  I have a 21" iMac already. Hmmm.

post #9 of 237
It's the size and *weight*, dummy. 8^P

The iPad mini has become a permanent fixture on my left hand. That's what my friends say.
post #10 of 237
Just a thought - is it possible these sales have more to do with the price than the size? Getting an iPad for $200 cheaper than a year ago (okay, maybe a little less because of the discounted iPad 2 last year) is probably a huge deal to people. I'm not sure how many of the people buying an iPad Mini would have bought a normal iPad instead if it wasn't around.

With that in mind, if Apple adds Retina to the Mini next year and keeps it the same price, look out.
post #11 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by jglonek View Post

Just a thought - is it possible these sales have more to do with the price than the size? Getting an iPad for $200 cheaper than a year ago (okay, maybe a little less because of the discounted iPad 2 last year) is probably a huge deal to people. I'm not sure how many of the people buying an iPad Mini would have bought a normal iPad instead if it wasn't around.

With that in mind, if Apple adds Retina to the Mini next year and keeps it the same price, look out.

Very true; it would be great to see the ratio of people buying this mini who already have the 9.7" and those who don't. But I guess we'll never have Apple show us that number...
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post #12 of 237
I prefer the 9.7" iPad. Because.

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post #13 of 237
Watch the stock drop even more now. 1biggrin.gif
post #14 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

I knew the small one would sell better than the big one if they made one. Doesn't mean making one was a good idea. lol.gif

 

A 40" touchscreen computer will sell better than either of these models. The key is the interface.

 

I'd really like a 15" iPad-equivalent for portable stuff, too. Do I think that would sell as well as the 8"? I think it would sell better than the 10".

Apple isn't stupid.  When you can make something at your profit margin, and at that price take away the sales from the other companies cannabalizing your line, you do it.   Good Idea = Make Money you aren't already making, without selling your future out.

 

The question was pricepoint.  Obviously apple hit the pricepoint (shame on us who felt $199/249/299 were the pricepoints).   I don't think a 40" would work well for total ROI.  15"?  That I think is in the realm of possibility (definitely 13"... I figure once Win8 OEM's push out a few hundred thousand 11" plus tablets,  Apple will swoop in and make one and eat their lunches).

 

The fact it's selling more than expected, is a heckuva lot better than selling to expectation, and your flagship ipad drops by the same amount.  The fact that the 'new' ipad is selling at normal levels basically says the cannabalization from external forces has been staunched.  that's a WinWin.   

post #15 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by jglonek View Post

Just a thought - is it possible these sales have more to do with the price than the size? Getting an iPad for $200 cheaper than a year ago (okay, maybe a little less because of the discounted iPad 2 last year) is probably a huge deal to people. I'm not sure how many of the people buying an iPad Mini would have bought a normal iPad instead if it wasn't around.
With that in mind, if Apple adds Retina to the Mini next year and keeps it the same price, look out.

Definitely ! But even if the user can afford both like me, I ended up swapping my Retina in for a mini.
post #16 of 237

it only shows that people just want cheaper and inferior ipad. The resolution is horrible and I cannot imagine how people could enjoy reading on iPad mini. I would buy iPad mini IF it has retina display otherwise no thanks! 

post #17 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I knew the small one would sell better than the big one if they made one. Doesn't mean making one was a good idea. lol.gif

A 40" touchscreen computer will sell better than either of these models. The key is the interface.

I'd really like a 15" iPad-equivalent for portable stuff, too. Do I think that would sell as well as the 8"? I think it would sell better than the 10".

It is not a bad idea if they sell a lot more units to compensate for the smaller margin. They can always optimize the production cost later.

If you are considering getting one, buy an LTE mini. It complements the MacBook very well with tethering. Th Verizon one allows tethering even for the entry package. I have an AT&T iPhone, the Verizon iPad mini helps cover the network differences since I have free VoIP on the mini.
post #18 of 237
As to the initial conservative volume estimate, when IBM estimated the sales of the very first PC, they came up with 275,000 over a 5 year life of product (yes they saw the PC not lasting more than 5 years). IBM had commitments for that number before the actual release date. So Apple being off by a factor of 2 is nothing compared to IBM's ineptitude.
post #19 of 237

Cheaper product outsells more expensive product shocker! ;)
 

post #20 of 237

The problematic part is, now that iPad mini becomes the standard, people will start to use the $329 as the anchor for tablets which means it'd be hard for Apple to create new premium products and higher price points that people will be willing to pay for. 

 

Besides margin suppression and lower revenue of iPad mini vs. iPad 4, this is also part of the reason why AAPL is struggling

post #21 of 237
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post
When you can make something at your profit margin, and at that price take away the sales from the other companies cannabalizing your line, you do it.

 

Ah, but were they? That's the key. We don't really know because they refuse to publish their numbers.


Good Idea = Make Money you aren't already making, without selling your future out.

 

Agreed. A smaller one doesn't preclude larger ones.

 

The question was pricepoint.

 

My question now is why they didn't just go the iPhone route with this.

 

I don't think a 40" would work well for total ROI.

 

Oh, it'll be a while, sure. Long after OS XI is released we'd see models that large, simply because the tech would be ludicrously expensive at first. But I think 27" might be the bottom size in a touchscreen desktop OS…

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post #22 of 237

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

I knew the small one would sell better than the big one if they made one. Doesn't mean making one was a good idea. lol.gif

 

A 40" touchscreen computer will sell better than either of these models. The key is the interface.

 

I'd really like a 15" iPad-equivalent for portable stuff, too. Do I think that would sell as well as the 8"? I think it would sell better than the 10".

Well.... you did say it would be an inferior product. You never mentioned you thought it would sell well - as far as I remember. You must have filled several never ending web pages with your rationale over the last god knows how many months on this subject (but that's OK cuz I KNOW you are tucked behind your screen eating humble pie for lunch every day, even if you deny it ;)).

 

A 40" touch screen will NOT sell better no matter how great the interface. 40"? Who are you kidding?

 

A 15" ipad would be a niche product. What would it be used for? If as a pro tool (I can see that) it would be too expensive for most users.

post #23 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

HUH...

 

Perhaps a smaller iPad was the "perfect size" all along.

 

For some folks sure. And those folks were likely to have never bought an iPad or would have. So they were a huge untapped market that, well Apple is now tapping that. Same with things like Schools that thought the whole iPad idea was cool but those big tablets and little hands were not a good fit so they were holding off. And so on. 

 

The regular sized iPad has been around so the thrill isn't there and the changes from a 3 to a 4 where just not that huge to warrant changing so the best the 4 might get is a few first time buyers and folks still using an iPad 2. But not really a huge flood (especially since a lot of first time buyers were likely more interested in the iPad Mini which is why they hadn't bought before or went cheap for the first buy in and got an ipad 2)

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post #24 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

Well.... you did say it would be an inferior product. You never mentioned you thought it would sell well - as far as I remember. You must have filled several never ending web pages with your rationale over the last god knows how many months on this subject (but that's OK cuz I KNOW you are tucked behind your screen eating humble pie for lunch every day, even if you deny it 1wink.gif).

That's the way I remembered it. I don't recall him EVER saying that it would sell well. All we got was page after page after page of why Apple shouldn't and wouldn't do it.
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post #25 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
Oh, it'll be a while, sure. Long after OS XI is released we'd see models that large, simply because the tech would be ludicrously expensive at first. But I think 27" might be the bottom size in a touchscreen desktop OS…

Its an interesting idea and perhaps the advent of tablets and 'touch' will slowly make computers with keyboards and other input devices redundant (people won't know how to use them / relate to them), so yeah... maybe.

 

The problem persists with touch however - keep it upright and your arm dies after short usage, keep it flat or somewhat angled on a desktop and people who spend hours in front of their computer will develop neck problems.

post #26 of 237

I frankly won't be interested at all in an iPad Mini until the screen is low res. I'm used to my iPad 2 so it's fine, but just comparing the mini's screen with that of an iPhone or other tablets, it's night and day. Low-res, worse colors and brightness... The new iPad is a lot better.

post #27 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever View Post

The problematic part is, now that iPad mini becomes the standard, people will start to use the $329 as the anchor for tablets which means it'd be hard for Apple to create new premium products and higher price points that people will be willing to pay for. 

 

 

$999 is the starting price for Apple laptops and they have no problem selling premium models that go up to $3000

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post #28 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

HUH...

 

Perhaps a smaller iPad was the "perfect size" all along.

Unfortunately, it's not the first time one of Steve's strongest beliefs (or at least public statement, if not personal belief) turned out to be wrong. See the one-button mouse. Fortunately, in the past decade, him being wrong has been mercifully rare.

post #29 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

Well.... you did say it would be an inferior product. You never mentioned you thought it would sell well - as far as I remember. You must have filled several never ending web pages with your rationale over the last god knows how many months on this subject (but that's OK cuz I KNOW you are tucked behind your screen eating humble pie for lunch every day, even if you deny it ;)).

 

A 40" touch screen will NOT sell better no matter how great the interface. 40"? Who are you kidding?

 

A 15" ipad would be a niche product. What would it be used for? If as a pro tool (I can see that) it would be too expensive for most users.


Of course he knew but thought that was a stupid idea. That would mean that he thinks that all the people who buy it are stupid and that he's the wisest. That's just his character.

post #30 of 237

Casual users will prefer mini.  For checking emails, reading ebooks or casual surfing, mini cannot be beaten.

 

I have mini and ipad 4 and most of the time i use the ipad 4 because it gives me better experience, especially with some of the retina apps i bought.

 

There is no 'best' ipad for everyone, it really depends on how one uses the ipad.

 

This 'cannibalism' and 'margin' theme is so overblown.  If rumor be true and Apple manages to slim down the 9.7 IPAD 5 considerably, then I don't think I will ever be tempted by the mini.  My children can continue to use my mini.

post #31 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Everyone stay out of the way while TS' head explodes.

 

TS wasn't the person I was thinking about when I read this. There was one other member that went on and on and on and on about how a smaller size was not necessary and that all of our reasons for wanting a smaller size were basically horseshit.

 

I should look that up and post who it is.

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post #32 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

A 40" touch screen will NOT sell better no matter how great the interface. 40"? Who are you kidding?

 

I'm recording this for future reference.  1wink.gif

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post #33 of 237

As possible evidence of slacking demand for the larger iPad, Walmart is dropping the price for the Wi-fi 4th Gen to an attractive $399. I'd imagine that should bump up the sales a bit. 

 

Note too that the iPhone5 is getting a big slash in price, down to $127. Seems a little early to see heavy discounting on the most recent model tho, Perhaps the rumors of another iPhone model announcement in just a couple of months have some validity.

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post #34 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

As possible evidence of slacking demand for the larger iPad, Walmart is dropping the price for the Wi-fi 4th Gen to an attractive $399. I'd imagine that should bump up the sales a bit. 

 

Note too that the iPhone5 is getting a big slash in price, down to $127. Seems a little early to see heavy discounting on the most recent model tho, Perhaps the rumors of another iPhone model announcement in just a couple of months have some validity.


AAPL dropped another $2 after you wrote that.  1tongue.gif

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post #35 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wisely View Post

Casual users will prefer mini.  For checking emails, reading ebooks or casual surfing, mini cannot be beaten.

 

I have mini and ipad 4 and most of the time i use the ipad 4 because it gives me better experience, especially with some of the retina apps i bought.

 

There is no 'best' ipad for everyone, it really depends on how one uses the ipad.

 

This 'cannibalism' and 'margin' theme is so overblown.  If rumor be true and Apple manages to slim down the 9.7 IPAD 5 considerably, then I don't think I will ever be tempted by the mini.  My children can continue to use my mini.

Before the Mini the only difference was price and quality of experience.  Was there no 'best' iPad for everyone?  of course there was... there was 'better than everyone else's tablet' and 'Best iPad... for $100 more'.

 

Now that we have 2 form factors at 3 base price points,  Apple has to earn it's keep from the owners (me!)  in balancing profit margin, competitive balance, and apple's streamlined product line (8 colors for iPad Mini?   gawd I hope not!) .  so Margin is not overblown (easy now... 2 months ago, We all thought the price was TOO HIGH? to maintain margin).  

 

As for cannibalism, you're right, internal cannibalism is overblown, ONLY IF you have your margins right...  

post #36 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

 

I'm recording this for future reference.  1wink.gif

OK.... I think I stand by the statement.... As a professional tool, perhaps, but never as a touch only from Apple. I would love to see TS walking around with a 40" iPad, however.

post #37 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by drobforever View Post

The problematic part is, now that iPad mini becomes the standard, people will start to use the $329 as the anchor for tablets which means it'd be hard for Apple to create new premium products and higher price points that people will be willing to pay for. 

Besides margin suppression and lower revenue of iPad mini vs. iPad 4, this is also part of the reason why AAPL is struggling

Lower price should reach a larger audience. So revenue could be higher or remain the same if they sell enough units.
post #38 of 237

Analysts: "Guys, we think we have a great idea to finally destroy Apple's stock... and profit from it big time."

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #39 of 237
Originally Posted by paxman View Post
(but that's OK cuz I KNOW you are tucked behind your screen eating humble pie for lunch every day, even if you deny it ;)).

 

That I keep saying it's a terrible idea shows that this isn't the case, I'd think.


A 40" touch screen will NOT sell better no matter how great the interface. 40"? Who are you kidding?

 

Who are YOU kidding? How big is your desk? Tell me that 27" wouldn't become too small a workspace for you after a few weeks of having a touchscreen UI on it. 40" would be glorious. I dunno, I know I'm on the high end of that, but 21.5" is definitely too small to start.


A 15" ipad would be a niche product. What would it be used for?

 

The 15" MacBook Pro isn't a niche product. Come on, man.

Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #40 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

As possible evidence of slacking demand for the larger iPad, Walmart is dropping the price for the Wi-fi 4th Gen to an attractive $399. I'd imagine that should bump up the sales a bit. 

Note too that the iPhone5 is getting a big slash in price, down to $127. Seems a little early to see heavy discounting on the most recent model tho, Perhaps the rumors of another iPhone model announcement in just a couple of months have some validity.
Who's dropping their price on the iPhone? A dying Best Buy? Certainly not AT&T or Verizon.
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