Apple's iPad mini already on pace to outsell Retina iPad - Page 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilBoogie 

If 5" is wanted, will a 6" or 7" also be great to you (all)? How about an iPad mini?

Maybe. There's probably a point of diminishing returns, but 4" @ 16:9 doesn't seem to be it. I would imagine that once it becomes too big to jam into a coat pocket and hold up to the ear with one hand when the headset isn't handy its appeal would wane. Up to that point I think people will be willing to compromise other factors for the perceived benefit of the larger screen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 
 ... He panned all existing solutions, and he also stated (paraphrase) that "[they] don't think this size is enough to create great tablet apps."

To be fair, he did also mention (and framed his remarks somewhat with it), that the 7" tablets existed primarily because Apple had at that point, sewn up the market for the larger displays.  The implication was that the other players couldn't get any large displays and were therefore stuck with the leftovers (the 7" screens), and were trying to make the best of it.  

So he was sorta also saying that at least one reason behind the 7" tablets wasn't that anyone thought it was the perfect size, but that it was the only size product they could really make at the time. 

I don't have any evidence, but personally, I think this was part of Jobs' and Apple's intention (to leave the competitors without supply), and that he was at least partially surprised by the prevalence of these 7" tablets and that people seemed to like them. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by island hermit 

When polled, size was one of the least important features.

Really? Do you recall where you heard/read that? I'd be interested in figuring out why my (admittedly severely limited) personal experience is so much different.

Quote:

Originally Posted by island hermit 

I'm guessing that $$$ was the most important consideration for the majority of those people buying a larger phone.

 

I used to think so too, but there isn't that much difference in price between an iPhone 5 and an S3, at least here in Vancouver -- about $50. Interestingly though, the S3 is anywhere from $100 to $200 cheaper than the iPhone with a contract. I don't understand why there's so much more subsidy on the S3 than the iP5.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

And this means what? They're not using them. 

Again, with due respect, that's irrelevant. How they use them and what they do with them doesn't matter. They're BUYING them, so ipso facto NOT buying iPhones.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

People are buying them because they're cheap-as-free™. They're buying them because they don't understand you don't need a Mac to use an iPhone. They're buying them because they're the only thing advertised, so they're the only thing they know about. They're buying them because they're something that isn't an Apple product. They're buying them because salesmen sell Android over the iPhone. 

Likely all true. And some of them, many even, I'd argue, are buying them because they like the bigger screen. I really don't understand why iPhone proponents get defensive when that comes up. Is it because those who prefer the current form factor are concerned that if larger screens become popular it may cause Apple to change the iPhone in a way they don't like?

Originally Posted by v5v 

Again, with due respect, that's irrelevant. How they use them and what they do with them doesn't matter. They're BUYING them, so ipso facto NOT buying iPhones.

So say… just… okay, say I buy three tons of fertilizer and dump it… somewhere. Don't use it. Whatever. Then when seed companies come a-callin', they find out I didn't even use the fertilizer. Don't even have a field. I live on an island in the Pacific; zero arable land, no growing conditions.

Think they're gonna waste their time and money shipping some seeds to my local store? 

I've used both. You're out of your mind if you swap a Retina 9'7" for a mini. They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the mini to replace the full-size makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.
 

FWIW: Every person I know who has bought the iPad Mini also has either the 3rd or 4th generation iPad, the iPhone 4s or 5, a MacBook and/or an iMac. None of the product lines are cannibalizing other lines. They are augmenting them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

 

Really? Do you recall where you heard/read that? I'd be interested in figuring out why my (admittedly severely limited) personal experience is so much different.

 

I used to think so too, but there isn't that much difference in price between an iPhone 5 and an S3, at least here in Vancouver -- about $50. Interestingly though, the S3 is anywhere from $100 to $200 cheaper than the iPhone with a contract. I don't understand why there's so much more subsidy on the S3 than the iP5.

It is true that people, when polled concerning size alone, prefer a size larger than 3.5". Between 4" and 4.5" is considered ideal. When polled about the overall experience, screen size drops close to the bottom of the list. [I'm sorry, I can't find the poll] On the other hand, I've read other polls, albeit with a small sample size, that indicate that people are happy with the current screen sizes between 4" and 4.5", larger screen sizes than this are not preferred... combined with the poll I first mentioned you can see why Apple sells as many iPhone 5s as it does. Once Apple hit 4" a sweet spot was found. Although the 5.5" Note 2 sells well, it does not sell 30 million or more units per quarter, not even close. Add to that the fact that size may be a small decision factor in purchasing this item. Hell, the stylus feature alone could be the reason for a lot of the purchases.

I still believe that the majority of the S3 purchases have nothing to do with the screen size, instead it has to do with $$$... as your comment indicates. There might only be a $50 difference without a contract but once you add a contract the price difference increases dramatically.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

So say… just… okay, say I buy three tons of fertilizer and dump it… somewhere. Don't use it. Whatever. Then when seed companies come a-callin', they find out I didn't even use the fertilizer. Don't even have a field. I live on an island in the Pacific; zero arable land, no growing conditions.

 

Think they're gonna waste their time and money shipping some seeds to my local store? 

Understood.

One *could* argue that if you're right and app development dries up because Android buyers aren't using apps, it will go largely unnoticed because the affected users don't use apps! :)

Originally Posted by v5v 
One *could* argue that if you're right and app development dries up because Android buyers aren't using apps, it will go largely unnoticed because the affected users don't use apps! :)

Who says they're not using apps?

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

 

 

I usually agree with you Phil, but not on this.

 

I want a phone with a 5"-ish screen for myself.

 

Tonight my wife told me that she wants the same phone our daughter has because it has a bigger screen making it easier to txt and play games.

 

The proliferation of big-screen phones I've seen on the train in the last three months tells me that LOTS of people want them and are BUYING them.

 

It's true that I may not be able to reach all the way across the screen with my thumb. Fortunately, I have two hands, and so do all those people who are using and apparently enjoying them.

Not me. In fact I'm not buying an iPhone 5 because I prefer the 4s size and format. But I can see that there is a market for them. And if you're keeping it in a handbag rather than trouser pocket, then compactness may not matter as much.

Relating that to the main thread point ... if Apple is seeing success with making an iPad range with different sizes, maybe that will translate back to the iPhone. I for one hope we see an iPhone range with both a larger size for those who want it, and one for those like me who are happy with the current 4s or max 5 size.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

Who says they're not using apps?

I thought YOU did. Isn't that what you meant by:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

And this means what? They're not using them. 

...and:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

So say… just… okay, say I buy three tons of fertilizer and dump it… somewhere. Don't use it. Whatever. Then when seed companies come a-callin', they find out I didn't even use the fertilizer. Don't even have a field. I live on an island in the Pacific; zero arable land, no growing conditions.

 

Think they're gonna waste their time and money shipping some seeds to my local store? 

?

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

... As I mentioned earlier, I believe it may be. ...

... Again, based on what I hear others saying, I think it actually does. ...

Yes, I know you believe these things, but you're simply wrong. People believe all sorts of things that aren't true.

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

... I used to think so too, but there isn't that much difference in price between an iPhone 5 and an S3, at least here in Vancouver -- about $50. Interestingly though, the S3 is anywhere from $100 to $200 cheaper than the iPhone with a contract. I don't understand why there's so much more subsidy on the S3 than the iP5. ...

There's not more subsidy, their cost on the S3 is less. Also, the carriers have more control over the user experience on Android phones and install their own key logger software to literally track everything the user does. That's why the sale people are under orders from the carriers to push Android phones. Also, there are the spiffs that the Android manufacturers pay the sales people, so between that and the carrier benefits and orders, that's what they are pushing on anyone who has the least uncertainty.

Android phones got big because they needed to put large batteries in them for LTE, and the screens are merely camouflage for the battery size. 

Originally Posted by v5v 
I thought YOU did. Isn't that what you meant by:

They're not using the devices as a whole, as shown by usage stats.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

They're not using the devices as a whole, as shown by usage stats.

You have to wonder if a good number of Android phones sold in "developing markets", which seem to make up the bulk of activations, don't even have data services available. Although, even in the U.S., Android is so far behind iOS in, for example, web usage stats that it makes the sales and activation numbers tossed around seem somewhat incredible.

Originally Posted by anonymouse 
You have to wonder if a good number of Android phones sold in "developing markets", which seem to make up the bulk of activations, don't even have data services available. Although, even in the U.S., Android is so far behind iOS in, for example, web usage stats that it makes the sales and activation numbers tossed around seem somewhat incredible.

Oh, I'm sure they don't. That's what "developing markets" means, or so they say. Can't afford the data. Can still afford the phone, somehow (well, yeah, Android phones are all pretty much free), though.

Web usage stats are notoriously unrelated to sales.  The larger iPad dominates web usage many times over its actual percentage of sold devices, for example.

They also don't tell us about device usage if someone is into apps more than the web.

Now, personally, I used a 7" Android tablet for surfing the web quite a bit, because it was very portable.  (When Jobs famously told his staff that tablets weren't good for anything but surfing the web in the bathroom, he missed a golden opportunity.  ANYTHING that engages men in the throne room will sell like hotcakes. - grin- )  So from my standpoint, there was no doubt that the iPad Mini would do very well.

On the other hand, the women in my family (daughters, daughters-in-law, wife) rarely surf the web.  They're far more likely to use apps (*).  Therefore they would not show up in web usage stats at all.

So think about your family's usage of their devices.  Do they actually surf the web and hit major sites that would show up on a survey?   Or do they mostly use social apps?  Or view movies?  Or play games? Or read email?  Or engage in IMs or texts?

I do think that for a long time, iOS had a nicer web surfing experience.  Now, with Chrome and other browsers, it's more even.

(*) For a couple of years, my youngest daughter would only use Android tablets with Flash, because all her favorite online games were available that way.  Now she's moved on to games like Sims, and the iPad.   She also uses the YouTube app a lot, and that doesn't use the web either.

Just thinking out loud.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vaelian 

The iPad mini is the cheap low-end into Apple's ecosystem; it was expected to fare well for that reason all along. Most people are cheap, they buy Apple mainly for the status, as evidenced by the number of Wi-Fi-only 16GB 9.7" iPads out there. The may be anecdotal evidence, but only other person I know who has a 64Gb iPad with cellular connectivity besides me is my cousin, and that's because his iPad 2 was mine and I sold it to him at half-price when the iPad 3 came out.

What the hell is the point of the 64GB iPad? U no haz computer?

I personally believe the 32G iPad Wifi-only is the best choice, but of course, it's due to my personal requirements. That you have the top of the line gear from Apple's mobile lineup is great for you, and that you feel like bragging it on some forum probably says stuff about you too. However, please abstain from equating "having differing requirements" with "most people are cheap". It's somehow annoying, for some reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

 

So say… just… okay, say I buy three tons of fertilizer and dump it… somewhere. Don't use it. Whatever. Then when seed companies come a-callin', they find out I didn't even use the fertilizer. Don't even have a field. I live on an island in the Pacific; zero arable land, no growing conditions.

 

Think they're gonna waste their time and money shipping some seeds to my local store? 

What's the point? Everyone knows you ship your weed directly from Amsterdam anyway.

Originally Posted by lightknight 
What's the point? Everyone knows you ship your weed directly from Amsterdam anyway.

Where does that fit into the analogy? I can't find it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KDarling 

Web usage stats are notoriously unrelated to sales.  The larger iPad dominates web usage many times over its actual percentage of sold devices, for example.

 

They also don't tell us about device usage if someone is into apps more than the web.

 

Now, personally, I used a 7" Android tablet for surfing the web quite a bit, because it was very portable.  (When Jobs famously told his staff that tablets weren't good for anything but surfing the web in the bathroom, he missed a golden opportunity.  ANYTHING that engages men in the throne room will sell like hotcakes. - grin- )  So from my standpoint, there was no doubt that the iPad Mini would do very well.

 

On the other hand, the women in my family (daughters, daughters-in-law, wife) rarely surf the web.  They're far more likely to use apps (*).  Therefore they would not show up in web usage stats at all.

 

So think about your family's usage of their devices.  Do they actually surf the web and hit major sites that would show up on a survey?   Or do they mostly use social apps?  Or view movies?  Or play games? Or read email?  Or engage in IMs or texts?

 

I do think that for a long time, iOS had a nicer web surfing experience.  Now, with Chrome and other browsers, it's more even.

 

(*) For a couple of years, my youngest daughter would only use Android tablets with Flash, because all her favorite online games were available that way.  Now she's moved on to games like Sims, and the iPad.   She also uses the YouTube app a lot, and that doesn't use the web either.

 

Just thinking out loud.

Just fantasizing out loud would be more accurate.

For your scenario to mirror reality, we'd need to assume that iOS users don't use apps, that most of what they do is surf the web on their devices. Not only is there no evidence to support that notion, it's contrary to what evidence we do have about app usage on iOS, which, if anything, indicates that it's actually heavier, at least in terms of the number of apps users have, than Android. In other words, there isn't even a grain of truth in your post.

And, if you want to look at anecdotal evidence, and apparently you don't want to look at anything else, the Android users I know hardly use apps at all. Most of them are unsophisticated technically and ended up with Android phones because a salesperson at a carrier store convinced them that there was no difference between Android and iOS and they had no base of knowledge from which to evaluate that claim. Most of them switch to iPhones as their contracts run out, apparently to be replaced by the next wave of unsophisticated customers getting their first smartphone.

The bottom line is that the usage stats do matter, and they tell us much more than "activation numbers" what people are doing with their "smartphones". 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vaelian 

... Most people are cheap, they buy Apple mainly for the status, as evidenced by the number of Wi-Fi-only 16GB 9.7" iPads out there. ...

Please explain why the sales numbers of Wi-Fi-only 16GB 9.7" iPads are evidence that people, "buy Apple mainly for the status."

I'll get the popcorn, because it's going to be entertaining watching you jump through hoops to explain that one away. 

Originally Posted by anonymouse 
Please explain why the sales numbers of Wi-Fi-only 16GB 9.7" iPads are evidence that people, "buy Apple mainly for the status."

Cheapest source of entry = still being part of the "rich crowd". 

That's as close as I can come to an explanation, but we're not in Gilded Age England anymore, so who knows.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil 

the wall of the really, REALLY seedy and disgusting motel when you're done using them. 

 

That's the Linux crowd. The people who buy Android devices because iOS is "too restrictive" are the same people (and the same NUMBER of people) that go with Linux because Windows and OS X are "too restrictive". 

A- So you're actually their client. I was wondering how they could make a living :p

B- Most Linux guys I know have iPhones. You go with Linux because it's the best system. You go with iPhone because it's the best phone. And you should not mix the problematics of restrictiveness on computers and on phones, really. They're very differing ideas.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer 

I've used both. You're out of your mind if you swap a Retina 9'7" for a mini. They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the mini to replace the full-size makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.
 

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a DSLR for a Micro 4/3.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the Micro 4/3 to replace the full frame makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a MBP for a MBA.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the MBA to replace the full-size makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a landline for a cell phone.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the cell phone to replace the landline makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a full sized Pontiac for a compact Honda.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the Honda to replace the full-size makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

I could go on...but thus far history has shown these kinds of statements are made by reactionary fuddy duddies unwilling to accept that times change.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nht 

 

 

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a DSLR for a Micro 4/3.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the Micro 4/3 to replace the full frame makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

 

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a MBP for a MBA.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the MBA to replace the full-size makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

 

 

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a landline for a cell phone.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the cell phone to replace the landline makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

 

 

I've used both.  You're out of your mind if you swap a full sized Pontiac for a compact Honda.  They definitely serve different purposes, but to choose the Honda to replace the full-size makes me glad I'm not anyone who would make that decision.

 

I could go on...but thus far history has shown these kinds of statements are made by reactionary fuddy duddies unwilling to accept that times change.

Times may change, but fitness for purpose doesn't necessarily change with them. Citing instances where people made choices that were sub-optimal for purpose doesn't prove that they didn't make bad choices or that anyone who doesn't is a "fuddy duddy".

Quote:

Originally Posted by KDarling 

Web usage stats are notoriously unrelated to sales. [...] They also don't tell us about device usage if someone is into apps more than the web.

Interesting point. I hadn't thought of that. I gave up on web surfing on my phone because the constant scrolling and zooming is just such a PITA. That's one of the reasons I would like a bigger screen myself.

Wherever possible, I have installed a dedicated app to do what I would otherwise have to do via the web -- banking, shopping, social media, etc. -- because the interface of the app is invariably better suited to use on a hand-held device.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mstone 

A 5" iPhone would not be pocketable in Levi's 501.

Depends what you mean by "pocketable." That criterion is important to me, too, so I checked. An S3 fits easily.

If Apple maintains the 16:9 aspect ratio, a 5" screen might be a fair bit taller than an S3 so maybe it would stick out the top of the pocket. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by v5v 

 

Depends what you mean by "pocketable." That criterion is important to me, too, so I checked. An S3 fits easily.

 

If Apple maintains the 16:9 aspect ratio, a 5" screen might be a fair bit taller than an S3 so maybe it would stick out the top of the pocket. :)

A Nexus7 can fit in the back pocket of a pair of 501's. A 5" iPhone wouldn't be a problem.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by anonymouse 

You have to wonder if a good number of Android phones sold in "developing markets", which seem to make up the bulk of activations, don't even have data services available.

Or more likely, the data is costly.  Of course, phones used in "developing markets" wouldn't show up in the US advertising network stats anyway.  If we compare just US web browsing stats for higher end phones, like the iPhone 5 to the GS3, they're much closer, like 56% to 44%.

  

Quote:

Originally Posted by anonymouse 

 

The bottom line is that the usage stats do matter, and they tell us much more than "activation numbers" what people are doing with their "smartphones". 

Full usage stats would matter, but web stats by themselves do not tell much, and in fact often paint a hugely distorted picture.  For examples:

Leave out Android completely and just compare iPad to iPhone browsing stats.  We all know that iPad users browse like crazy.  They make it look as if iPhone users don't use their browser at all, in comparison.  In other words, mixing the iPad into the stats throws all the results way off, giving false impressions of super low smartphone usage.

Besides the use of apps and widgets instead of the web, another problem with using advertising network stats is that they totally depend on the HTTP user agent, and on ad downloads. 

On Android, it's very easy to set an alternative brower as the default, or to install an ad blocker.  A lot of people use Chrome or Firefox, etc, which allow easily turning off "mobile" site viewing by hiding Android/mobile info from the user agent string.  Those users would not show up in the ad network stats.

Most importantly, these stats are released for the sole purpose of drumming up paid business for that particular ad network.  They're not meant for anything else.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mstone 


For some reason I never pictured you as a teenage girl carrying your phone with the shattered screen in your back jeans pocket. 

 Of course even tho I also wear 34's I would almost never consider putting my phone in a front jeans pocket alongside keys and change that are usually there....

much less crowding out my wife's pride and joy. With no butt to speak of there's a lot more room for me in a back pocket than a front one.