Apple's iPad mini already on pace to outsell Retina iPad - Page 2

Walmart.

 

I don't think we have anything to "worry" about unless Apple lowers the price of their iDevices on the Online Store.

So a discounter is lowering their prices during the Christmas season. Call me shocked. Let me know when AT&T, Verizon and the Apple Store dropped their prices.

 

This is subjective, but myself and the two people I know that got minis recently, were (all three) owners of a Retina iPad 3, and after getting the mini I don't think I've even picked the Retina iPad up, except a few times to demonstrate to people how heavy it is.  I'm pretty sure my two friends feel the same way. 

 

As far as I'm concerned, the regular sized iPad is now "shit" (to use the Jobsian term).  iPad mini FTW! 

 

Let me see if I've got this right... The iPad mini which would flop due to it's high price and no retina has it's orders doubled, while the Surface RT which was supposed to give apple a big slap and show them how to make a refrigeroaster™, has its orders halved.

After using the iPad mini for three weeks now, I could never go back to the 10" versions.  They just feel like bricks. 

 

Here are my thoughts on the two models.

 

Typing:

 

I find that typing on the mini using the smart cover to be as to be as easy as typing on my older iPad with a smart cover.  I can types as fast and as accurate.  The limitation in typing speed with ALL ipads is having to switch between the letter, numbers and symbol keyboards.  The difference in size DOES NOT affect this, period.  I just do NOT see and issue here. When holding the two devices and trying to type, the mini is the better of the two.  It is Small enough for me to hold in one hand at type with the other.  in Addition, It is so easy to thumb type in portrait mode with the mini.  My hands are big enough that I can thumb type in landscape mode with the mini, but it is a bit of a stretch.  So if you type on a table or desk it is about the same to me.  If you type while trying to hold the device (what it is intended for) the mini Wins period....

 

Screen:

 

I find the screen quality of the mini to be great.  Sure a retina display would be nice, but I would NOT want it if it adds any weight or thickness.  I am 48 and do not have that great of eye site.  My only worry with the mini was being able to read the screen.  To my relief, it just has not been an issue.  I can see all of the text just fine without glasses or contacts.  I can still read it fine with my Bi-Focal contacts or my Transition  glasses.  My biggest worry turned out to be a no-issue.  

 

Watching videos:

 

The mini wins hands down here.  It looks great and is so much more comfortable to hold in all situations.

 

Web browsing and reading:

 

The mini wins because it is so much more comfortable to hold....   If I can easily read the text and the pictures and video look great, then I have to ask why would a larger iPad be any better at this?

 

Speed:

 

I am sure that the A6 is faster, but I have not felt like I was missing anything.  All apps seem to run smooth with little is any lag.  Maybe it will not work with the next iOS update, but it works great with iOS 6...

 

Portability:

 

The entire point of the iPad is to be a portable device.  In my opinion, this is why the Mini is so much better than the iPad.  I find my self carrying it to places where I would not have bothered to carry the iPad.  I find that if the Mini is not up to the task I need, I pull out my 13" macbook pro.  Since the mini will doe anything that the iPad will do, I do not think I would have reached for the larger iPad if the mini was not up to the task...

 

Conclusion:  

 

iPads are meant to be portable devices.  The Mini is far more portable and will do anything that the larger iPads will do (at this time).  I just do not see any good reason to chose the iPad over the mini IPad at this time.  The fact that the mini cost less is just a nice bonus for me.  If they were the same price, I would still pick the mini....

 

It's the electronic version of one handed reading material ;¬)

I've owned the 1st & 3rd Gen iPad, and when the mini came out..... I really had no interest. But after holding one, I was hooked.... it's just the right size, at least for me. I travel 12-15 days a month for work, so I opted for the AT&T LTE mini.... and in LTE markets it is so stinking fast, I never bother with hotel WiFi anymore. It was one of the products I thought I'd never own... and do.

 

Or pundits are wrong about what number Apple predicted? Or perhaps, regardless of prediction, the real constraint is capacity?

 

Regardless, this is all good because, once again, Apple got the pricing right. Will pundits stop doubting Tim Cook and Phil Schiller?

But Walmart has a habit of discounting a popular item to bring in customers who will buy many other items. I don't think this is indicative of their ability to sell the 9.7" device.

When Apple introduced iPad4, iPad3 was immediately discontinued. Does anyone know what Apple did with the inventory? Are they kept as replacement units?

And Apple's stock is down 4% today.

Absolutely possible it's not a permanent markdown. But they aren't saying it's a holiday sale, instead calling it a price roll-back. Only a couple weeks more and we'll know which it is.

 

In the meantime if you're willing to pay just $50 more than you would for a mini, the next-gen full-size iPad4 looks like a pretty darn good deal. 

Edited by Gatorguy - 12/14/12 at 11:28am

Actually, that appears to mis-state Steve's view on the smaller iPad.

He said that existing 7" tablets were crap. There was a report from at least one of the senior execs that he was not adamantly opposed to a smaller iPad if it was done right. In fact, it is almost certain that the iPad Mini was under development while Jobs was still in charge.

You've got it partially right. You left off the part where Apple's stock is down almost 4% while MSFT is flat.

I don't own Apple shares.  I don't care about Apple's profit margin. 

There are companies with much lower profit margin and higher PE than Apple share prices.

 

Apple will still be a highly profitable company even if the average profit margin drops from the current 40% level. 

How many hardware makers/sellers can even claim to have a profit margin of 20%?

 

I care about the quality of Apple tablets and phone design and build.

 

I care about the total sales number of all Apple's tablets and phone because this determines the number/quality of developers and the quality of apps availabe.

 

Quality of hardware and app is the reason why Apple will continue to do well and stay profitable.

Ok. Good. 

 

Not much else to say. 

Nice breakdown.  I am holding out on upgrading from the iPad 3 to either Mini retina or iPad 5 next year.  You make great points.

I still think 7" 16:9 tablets are crap. And I think iPad sales for this quarter will bear that out. Even if Apple doesn't break out sales between iPad and mini we'll be able to get a good estimate based on margins.

I still think the reason we got 7" tablets from Amazon and Google is because they knew the only way they could compete with iPad was on price. But if people are buying their tablets (because they're so cheap) and not really using them are they really competing?

12/14/12:

 

9/11/12

 

5/17/12

 

 

 

 

You knew what? 

Edited by nht - 12/14/12 at 1:03pm

 

Exactly what I said. I stand by the last statement you quoted. 

 

I apologize; you're right in catching my error in the most recent post.

Good for Apple! :)

 

I've taken a very minimalist approach to my tech/electronics, recently. I've been on a mission to get rid of crappy, creaky, plasticky electronics which come with crappy, clunky interfaces and miles of cables/connectors and power bricks. The iPhone has helped immeasurably in this regard. No stand-a-lone GPS unit, no stand-a-lone camera, no stand-a-lone video camera, no stereo, etc., etc.

 

 

1) I only buy Apple products. 2) I'll always have the latest iPhone and an iPad mini (waiting for the rMini). And, 3) I will invest most of my $'s into only one large screen device. That device being the AppleTV and not 10" iPads, 13"-15" laptops or 20"-27" iMac's/Apple Monitor.

 

 

Sold my Macbook, ostensibly to purchase an 11" MBA...but decided against it. Sold my iPad 2 to get the new iPad 3. But again, didn't.

 

When my orig. intel iMac gives up the ghost, I may not replace it at all. If I do, it will be an MBA 11" (The new iMac's are wondrous! But, sadly, don't fit my lifestyle anymore.)

 

Sold my original ATV and my TV, waiting for the Apple TV. A little premature on that one. Missed the entire Formula One season. But at least saved $'s by not giving it to "Cocks" (Cox) Cable.

 

May invest in a TimeCapsule but it seems like dated tech now with the advent of iCloud, Dropbox, etc. I do have everything backed up on an ext. HD. (My last power brick to remove.)

 

Best! :)

 

IBM was using Apple's sales numbers of the Apple II to do their projections. They didn't anticipate in how strongly their IBM name would be accepted by the Enterprise and Government markets even though the first PCs used an audio cassette tape for mass storage.

 

I think he meant to say: 

 

40" would indeed be glorious, but as a touch surface it is huge. Are you thinking it lies flat like a tablet or that it is essentially an iMac with touch? Both are problematic ergonomically for extended work time. 

 

Not the mbp but we're talking about a 15" iPad - or were you talking about a MBP with a touch screen? But I have to say I see less and less 15" laptops. Personally I use a 13" with a 24" monitor which for me is much better solution.

 

Please, I'll take some class. 

 

Neither: at a slight angle, mirroring that of a keyboard for ergonomics, and created by the hardware contained therein. Basically an iMac without the foot. You're absolutely right, both horizontal and vertical screens that are meant to be touched are doomed to failure.

 

A 15" tablet. Not a touchscreen laptop, and not something with the iPad's UI, I don't think. I don't believe something so simple can scale that far up.

Edited by Tallest Skil - 12/14/12 at 11:59am

That isn't even rational. The Mini was and is a good idea and the sales success is a testimate to that good idea. A 40" touchscreen computer is a stupid idea, there is cose to zero sales potential there. Now a gesture based computer might be something else but that isn't a touch screen. Now this I tend to agree with though I might suggest something like a 13" screen. This is only a matter of time though, I still see Apple having a stable full of iOS based machines.

 

Maybe people that need a work surface greater than 13"?

I do agree with you that 7" tablets are crap. Most of the brand X sales are going to the first-time buyers or buyers that primarily want an e-reader.

 

Apple's mini at 7.9" is dramatically larger than the brand X 7" tablets and can do so much more than function as an e-reader. But, as has been recognized by Samsung and others, it's Apple's ecosystem that makes its iPads and iPhones really attractive to the larger market. 

 

If Apple were to get the weight down on their 10" tablet it would become more attractive to some buyers that like the larger format, but want more portability. With the rapidly aging population the larger size (coupled with lighter weight) would be a win win for the older eyes. So, I don't see a problem with that size at all. This isn't to say that a larger and heavier tablet has anything going for it. Microsoft's Surface terrible sales shows that format isn't attractive to buyers at all.

The 40" touch screen is a favorite of the news and weather announcers, but at that size it's more of a whiteboard then a tablet or computer.

 

Well, yeah; they'd start at 27". But multiple points of contact, multiple larger points of contact, require larger operating areas.

You may be slightly in the extreme here but this highlights why iPhone in particular has been so successful. It is a device that literally replaces a half dozen other devices and is infinitely more flexible. Personally I still like my iPad 3 and its size. I'm not as extreme in my minimalism but I find myself milking my MBP in favor of keeping iOS devices fairly up to date. Obviously I'm behind the curve with iPad 4 but that is due to the device needing more flash. My iPad usage is such now that more internal flash storage is becoming an important element in any new purchase. The only buy Apple products view is a point I can't subscribe too. There are other things out there of comparable quality. Sounds like you really aren't that wrapped up in Apple after all. That is a good thing because to many around here jump at the latest "I" glossy without even thinking. Frankly I wonder if these people have anything going on beyond their "I" glossy. Well that may be a little tough for me right now. Sadly I may find myself buying into a PC (used possibly) to run Linux for a project or two I have in mind. I gave up on cable and to some extent conventional TV some time ago. Yeah it was tough but it saved me huge bucks. As to my TV watching, there are so many options out there today that it is very possible to get a good mix of entertainment relatively cheap. You tube is a rewarding option with some things I rather enjoy more than most of what passes for TV today. An example is Knife Making Tuesdays. Actually I have no confidence at all in any of the cloud services thus I wouldn't rely upon any of them for important file storage. This is one reason why I will have a Mac of some sort for a very long time into the future.
While not everyone has gone to your extremes I think everyone has shrunken their device ownership a bit due to the advent of iOS devices. It is pretty much the new "normal".

 

A 40" touchscreen where the attitude can be adjusted from horizontal to vertical (and all points in between) like an easel or drafting table would be exceptional for some types of creative work.  Things like: drawing;  painting;  CAD;  drafting;  photo light table;  graphics design;  prototyping;  storyboarding; video and sound editing...

 

Final Cut Pro X [almost] cries out for you to reach in and "get your hands dirty" in the editing process.

 

Imagine doing ripple, roll, slip and slide with your fingers..

 

 

I cannot wait for the day when desktop OS' are touchscreen. So much that I want to do now that we just can't.

Good points Wiz.

Few would be able to leverage such a screen for traditional computer usage. It is directly related to ergonomics. I have a bit of experience here to back up this statement because I work at a place with a large number of touch screens (think automation), everyone of them has been supplemented with a standard keyboard because touch screens suck if you have to work at them for more than a few minutes. This has nothing to do with the operating system but is simply a human factors issue. Now a 40" screen that can "see" gestures is another thing but no one has a viable solution for that either.

Now I won't dismiss the idea that a few can leverage a large touch screen in a non traditional orientation but the problem here is that is damn few people and not enough to justify the sale of such a device. More importantly the vast majority of your customers would never use the option or become frustrated with it. This would lead to poor acceptance and a lot of negativity about the Mac line up. In a nut shell Apple trying to pass off a touch screen as an improvement to the Mac user interface has a very good possibility of backfiring.

What? Cheaper things sell more? Never!

This is sort of like the argument about the inclusion of opticals. Does it really make sense for Apple to include a feature so few would use effectively? Especially in this case where the feature could end being seen a useless or of no value by the vast majority of Mac Users. By the way being hunched over a drafting table wasn't exactly good ergonomics, modern CAD systems came on quickly because the old ways left a lot to be desired.
That may be so but would most Mac users even care? I'm willing to bet not and frankly the touch screen would be either quickly forgotten or seldom used by the majority of Mac users. It all comes back to what the majority of Mac users would see in a touch screen. In that regard I don't think many would be happy paying an additional cost for something seldom used which is where opticals come into the discussion. Apples customers have shown a very strong preference for hardware that suits their needs without the extras or frills.

I don't see Apple offering it, but if horizontal or on a skew (like a drafting table), it literally could replace a physical desktop.

But I wouldn't do it without a physical keyboard. I don't like virtual keyboards for more than occasional use, I think it cuts my speed by half.

 

Touchscreens on desktop computing is IMHO correctly assessed as generally suboptimal...until you go all in.

 

 

99% of the time you don't use your fingers on the vertical surface because obviously your arms will get tired.  You use it on the table surface and there, the bigger the better.

 

http://www.ohgizmo.com/2012/10/10/benddesk-is-a-workstation-and-multitouch-computer-in-one/

 

This isn't their idea...this was first introduced by an Apple UI alumnus in 1992 while working at Sun...Bruce Tognazzini:

 

 

 

http://www.asktog.com/starfire/

 

 

Just remember it's from 1992 and it's a corporate video. :)  It's rather non-apple though.  I dunno if I see the iMac going in this direction because it's so big but you need both a vertical and horizontal work surface for effective touch.   

 

Still if you watch the video you get to see iChat, a tablet, skeuomorphic UI (that nobody will understand since film canisters doesn't exist anymore) and bad 90s hair.

 

There are some interesting features that are not in the video such as tactile feedback by providing a raised goosebumps where the paper is displayed, the ability to print by throwing the document toward the table edge that has a printer installed, etc. 

So a third OS? I just don't see the point right now. If Win 8 really takes off and all Windows machines ship with touch screens over the next few years, it could happen, but there are a lot of 'ifs' in there. But even a 15" tablet is niche. It would be a pro tool and so be be too expensive. Give me a real life scenario where the 15" is requirement.